arXiv subjects

Karen A. Collins

Publications and source records attributed to Karen A. Collins.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

A New Brown Dwarf Orbiting an M star and An Investigation on the Eccentricity Distribution of Transiting Long-Period Brown Dwarfs

The orbital eccentricities of brown dwarfs encode valuable information of their formation and evolution history, providing insights into whether they resemble giant planets or stellar binaries. Here, we report the discovery of TOI-5575b, a long-period, massive brown dwarf orbiting a low-mass M5V star ($\rm 0.21\pm0.02\,M_\odot$) delivered by the TESS mission. The companion has a mass and radius of $\rm 72.4\pm4.1\,M_J$ and $\rm 0.84\pm0.07\,R_J$ on a 32-day moderately eccentric orbit ($e=0.187\pm0.002$), making it the third highest-mass-ratio transiting brown dwarf system known to date. Building on this discovery, we investigate the eccentricity distributions of a sample of transiting long-period ($10\leq P\lesssim 1000$ days, $\sim$0.1-1.5 AU) giant planets, brown dwarfs and low-mass stars. We find that brown dwarfs exhibit an eccentricity behavior nearly identical to that of giant planets: a preference for circular orbits with a long tail toward high eccentricities. Such a trend contrasts sharply with direct imaging findings, where cold (5-100 AU) brown dwarfs and giant planets display distinct eccentricity distributions. Our results suggest that transiting long-period brown dwarfs and giant planets probably 1) form in different routes at exterior orbits but undergo analogous dynamical evolution processes and migrate inwards; or 2) both contain two sub-groups, one with widely spread eccentricities while the other has circular orbits, that jointly sculpt the eccentricity distributions. The low-mass-star systems appear to be a distinctive population, showing a peak eccentricity at about 0.3, akin to more massive stellar binaries.

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arXiv2025

An Aligned Sub-Neptune Revealed with MAROON-X and a Tendency Towards Alignment for Small Planets

We present the Rossiter-McLaughlin measurement of the sub-Neptune TOI-1759A b with MAROON-X. A joint analysis with MuSCAT3 photometry and nine additional TESS transits produces a sky-projected obliquity of $|λ|$= $4^\circ\pm18^{\circ}$. We also derive a true obliquity of $ψ$=24$\pm12^{\circ}$ making this planet consistent with full alignment albeit to $<1σ$. With a period of 18.85 days and an $a/R_{*}$ of 40, TOI-1759A b is the longest period single sub-Neptune to have a measured obliquity. It joins a growing number of smaller planets which have had this measurement made and, along with K2-25 b, is the only single, aligned sub-Neptune known to date. We also provide an overview of the emerging distribution of obliquity measurements for planets with R$<8$ R$_{\oplus}$. We find that these types of planets tend toward alignment, especially the sub-Neptunes and super-Earths implying a dynamically cool formation history. The majority of misaligned planets in this category have 4$<$R$\leq$8 R$_{\oplus}$ and are more likely to be isolated than planets rather than in compact systems. We find this result to be significant at the $3σ$ level, consistent with previous studies. In addition, we conduct injection and recovery testing on available archival radial velocity data to put limits on the presence of massive companions in these systems. Current archival data is insufficient for most systems to have detected a giant planet.

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arXiv2025

The TESS Grand Unified Hot Jupiter Survey. III. Thirty More Giant Planets

We present the discovery of 30 transiting giant planets that were initially detected using data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. These new planets orbit relatively bright ($G \leq 12.5$) FGK host stars with orbital periods between 1.6 and 8.2 days, and have radii between 0.9 and 1.7 Jupiter radii. We performed follow-up ground-based photometry, high angular-resolution imaging, high-resolution spectroscopy and radial velocity monitoring for each of these objects to confirm that they are planets and determine their masses and other system parameters. The planets' masses span more than an order of magnitude ($0.17\,M_J < M_p < 3.3\,M_J$). For two planets, TOI-3593 b and TOI-4961 b, we measured significant non-zero eccentricities of $0.11^{+0.05}_{-0.03}$ and $0.18^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ respectively, while for the other planets, the data typically provide a 1-$σ$ upper bound of 0.15 on the eccentricity. These discoveries represent a major step toward assembling a complete, magnitude-limited sample of transiting hot Jupiters around FGK stars.

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arXiv2025

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey. VI: Confirmation of a Long-Period Giant Planet Discovered with a Single TESS Transit

We report the discovery and confirmation of TOI-4465 b, a $1.25^{+0.08}_{-0.07}~R_{J}$, $5.89\pm0.26~M_{J}$ giant planet orbiting a G dwarf star at $d\simeq$ 122 pc. The planet was detected as a single-transit event in data from Sector 40 of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. Radial velocity (RV) observations of TOI-4465 showed a planetary signal with an orbital period of $\sim$102 days, and an orbital eccentricity of $e=0.24\pm0.01$. TESS re-observed TOI-4465 in Sector 53 and Sector 80, but did not detect another transit of TOI-4465 b, as the planet was not expected to transit during these observations based on the RV period. A global ground-based photometry campaign was initiated to observe another transit of TOI-4465 b after the RV period determination. The $\sim$12 hour-long transit event was captured from multiple sites around the world, and included observations from 24 citizen scientists, confirming the orbital period as $\sim$102 days. TOI-4465 b is a relatively dense ($3.73\pm0.53~\rm{g/cm^3}$), temperate (375-478 K) giant planet. Based on giant planet structure models, TOI-4465 b appears to be enriched in heavy elements at a level consistent with late-stage accretion of icy planetesimals. Additionally, we explore TOI-4465 b's potential for atmospheric characterization, and obliquity measurement. Increasing the number of long-period planets by confirming single-transit events is crucial for understanding the frequency and demographics of planet populations in the outer regions of planetary systems.

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arXiv2025

11 New Transiting Brown Dwarfs and Very Low Mass Stars from TESS

We present the discovery of 11 new transiting brown dwarfs and low-mass M-dwarfs from NASA's TESS mission: TOI-2844, TOI-3122, TOI-3577, TOI-3755, TOI-4462, TOI-4635, TOI-4737, TOI-4759, TOI-5240, TOI-5467, and TOI-5882. They consist of 5 brown dwarf companions and 6 very low mass stellar companions ranging in mass from $25 M_{\rm J}$ to $128 M_{\rm J}$. We used a combination of photometric time-series, spectroscopic, and high resolution imaging follow-up as a part of the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP) in order to characterize each system. With over 50 transiting brown dwarfs confirmed, we now have a large enough sample to directly test different formation and evolutionary scenarios. We provide a renewed perspective on the transiting brown dwarf desert and its role in differentiating between planetary and stellar formation mechanisms. Our analysis of the eccentricity distribution for the transiting brown dwarf sample does not support previous claims of a transition between planetary and stellar formation at $\sim42$ $M_{\rm J}$. We also contribute a first look into the metallicity distribution of transiting companions in the range $7 - 150$ $M_{\rm J}$, showing that this too does not support a $\sim42$ $M_{\rm J}$ transition. Finally, we also detect a significant lithium absorption feature in one of the brown dwarf hosts (TOI-5882) but determine that the host star is likely old based on rotation, kinematic, and photometric measurements. We therefore claim that TOI-5882 may be a candidate for planetary engulfment.

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arXiv2025

A 16 Myr super-Neptune in Upper-Centaurus Lupus and a preliminary survey of transiting planets in Sco-Cen with TESS

Measuring the properties of planets younger than about 50 Myr helps to test different planetary formation and evolution models. NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has observed nearly the entire sky, including a wide range of star-forming regions and young stellar clusters, expanding our census of the newborn planet population. In this work, we present the discovery of the TIC 88785435 planetary system located in the Upper-Centaurus Lupus (UCL) region of the Scorpius-Centaurus OB association (Sco-Cen) and a preliminary survey of the planet population within Sco-Cen. TIC 88785435 is a pre-main sequence, K7V dwarf ($M_\star = 0.72M_\odot$, $R_\star = 0.91R_\odot$, $T_\mathrm{eff}$ = 3998K, V = 11.7 mag) located within the bounds of UCL. We investigate the distribution of rotation periods measured from the TESS long-cadence data and the Halpha and Li abundances from the spectra of TIC 88785435. TESS long-candence data reveal that TIC 88785435 hosts a transiting super-Neptune ($R_b = 5.03R_\oplus$, P = 10.51 days), TIC 88785435 b. Ground-based follow-up validates the planetary nature of TIC 88785435 b. Using the TESS data, we perform a preliminary survey to investigate how TIC 88785435 b compares to the population of newly born planets located within Sco-Cen.

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arXiv2025

A transiting multi-planet system in the 61 million year old association Theia 116

Observing and characterizing young planetary systems can aid in unveiling the evolutionary mechanisms that sculpt the mature exoplanet population. As an all-sky survey, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has expanded the known young planet population as it has observed young comoving stellar populations. This work presents the discovery of a multiplanet system orbiting the 61 Myr old G4V star TIC 434398831 (M = 0.99 Msun, R = 0.91 Rsun, Teff = 5638 K, Tmag = 11.31) located in the Theia 116 comoving population. We estimate the population's age based on rotation periods measured from the TESS light curves, isochrone fitting, and measurements of lithium equivalent widths in the spectra of Theia 116 members. The TESS FFI light curves reveal a mini-Neptune (Rb = 3.51 Rearth, Pb = 3.69 days) and super-Neptune (Rc = 5.63 Rearth, Pc = 6.21 days) with an orbital period ratio slightly larger than 5:3. Follow-up observations from CHEOPS and ground-based telescopes confirm the transits of TIC 434398831 b and c, and constrain their transit times. We explore the potential mass-loss histories of the two planets in order to probe possible initial conditions of the planets immediately after formation.

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arXiv2025

Multi-band, Multi-epoch Photometry of the Spot-crossing System TOI-3884: Refined System Geometry and Spot Properties

Spot-crossing transits offer a unique opportunity to probe spot properties such as temperature, size, and surface distribution. TOI-3884 is a rare system in which spot-crossing features are persistently observed during every transit. This is due to its unusual configuration: a nearly poler orbit super-Neptune transits a pole-on mid-M dwarf, repeatedly crossing a polar spot. However, previous studies have reported discrepant values in key system parameters, such as stellar inclination and obliquity. To address this, we conducted multi-band, multi-epoch transit observations of TOI-3884b using the MuSCAT instrument series, along with photometric monitoring with the LCO 1m telescopes/Sinistro. We detected time-dependent variations in the spot-crossing signals, indicating that the spot is not exactly on the pole. From the monitoring data, we measured a stellar rotation period of $11.043~_{-0.053}^{+0.054}$ days with a modulation amplitude of $\sim$5% in the r-band, consistent with the time variability in the spot-crossing features. Our analysis reconciles previous discrepancies and improves the constraints on the parameters of the system geometry ($i_\star = 139.9~^{+1.2}_{-2.0}$ deg and $λ=41.0~^{+3.7}_{-9.0}$ deg) and those of the spot properties (spot radius of $0.425~_{-0.011}^{+0.018}~R_\star$ and spot-photosphere temperature difference of $200~_{-9}^{+11}$ K). These results provide a critical context for interpreting upcoming transmission spectroscopy of TOI-3884b, as well as yielding new insights into the magnetic activity and spin-orbit geometry of M dwarfs.

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arXiv2025

A transiting giant planet in orbit around a 0.2-solar-mass host star

Planet formation models suggest that the formation of giant planets is significantly harder around low-mass stars, due to the scaling of protoplanetary disc masses with stellar mass. The discovery of giant planets orbiting such low-mass stars thus imposes strong constraints on giant planet formation processes. Here, we report the discovery of a transiting giant planet orbiting a $0.207 \pm 0.011 M_{\odot}$ star. The planet, TOI-6894 b, has a mass and radius of $M_P = 0.168 \pm 0.022 M_J (53.4 \pm 7.1 M_{\oplus})$ and $R_P = 0.855 \pm 0.022 R_J$, and likely includes $12 \pm 2 M_{\oplus}$ of metals. The discovery of TOI-6894 b highlights the need for a better understanding of giant planet formation mechanisms and the protoplanetary disc environments in which they occur. The extremely deep transits (17% depth) make TOI-6894 b one of the most accessible exoplanetary giants for atmospheric characterisation observations, which will be key for fully interpreting the formation history of this remarkable system and for the study of atmospheric methane chemistry.

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arXiv2025

The TOI-1117 Multi-planetary System: 3 sub-Neptunes, 1 in both the Neptunian Desert and Radius Valley

We present the discovery of three sub-Neptune planets around TOI-1117, a Sun-like star with mass $0.97\pm0.02M_{\odot}$, radius $1.05\pm0.03R_{\odot}$, age $4.42\pm1.50$ Gyr and effective temperature $5635\pm62$ K. Light curves from TESS and LCOGT show a transiting sub-Neptune with a $2.23$ day period, mass $M_b=8.90_{-0.96}^{+0.95}M_{\oplus}$ and radius $R_b=2.46_{-0.12}^{+0.13}R_{\oplus}$. This is a rare 'hot Neptune' that falls within the parameter spaces known as the 'Neptunian Desert' and the 'Radius Valley'. Two more planetary signals are detected in HARPS radial velocities, revealing two non-transiting planets with minimum masses $M_c=7.46_{-1.62}^{+1.43}M_{\oplus}$ and $M_d=9.06_{-1.78}^{+2.07}M_{\oplus}$, and periods of $4.579\pm0.004$ and $8.67\pm0.01$ days. The eccentricities were poorly constrained by the HARPS data, with upper limits $e_b=0.11$, $e_c=0.29$, and $e_d=0.24$. However, dynamical simulations of the TOI-1117 system, suggest that the orbits must be nearly circular to be stable. The simulations also show that TOI-1117b and c are likely to be in a near 2:1 resonance. The multi-planet nature of TOI-1117 makes it a more complex case for formation theories of the Neptunian Desert and Radius Valley, as current theories such as high-eccentricity migration are too turbulent to produce a stable, non-eccentric, multi-planet system. Moreover, analysis of TOI-1117b's photoevaporation history found rocky core and H/He atmosphere models to be inconsistent with observations, whilst water-rich scenarios were favoured.

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arXiv2025

ExoMiner++: Enhanced Transit Classification and a New Vetting Catalog for 2-Minute TESS Data

We present ExoMiner++, an enhanced deep learning model that builds on the success of ExoMiner to improve transit signal classification in 2-minute TESS data. ExoMiner++ incorporates additional diagnostic inputs, including periodogram, flux trend, difference image, unfolded flux, and spacecraft attitude control data, all of which are crucial for effectively distinguishing transit signals from more challenging sources of false positives. To further enhance performance, we leverage multi-source training by combining high-quality labeled data from the Kepler space telescope with TESS data. This approach mitigates the impact of TESS's noisier and more ambiguous labels. ExoMiner++ achieves high accuracy across various classification and ranking metrics, significantly narrowing the search space for follow-up investigations to confirm new planets. To serve the exoplanet community, we introduce new TESS catalog containing ExoMiner++ classifications and confidence scores for each transit signal. Among the 147,568 unlabeled TCEs, ExoMiner++ identifies 7,330 as planet candidates, with the remainder classified as false positives. These 7,330 planet candidates correspond to 1,868 existing TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), 69 Community TESS Objects of Interest (CTOIs), and 50 newly introduced CTOIs. 1,797 out of the 2,506 TOIs previously labeled as planet candidates in ExoFOP are classified as planet candidates by ExoMiner++. This reduction in plausible candidates combined with the excellent ranking quality of ExoMiner++ allows the follow-up efforts to be focused on the most likely candidates, increasing the overall planet yield.

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arXiv2025

The Eccentricity Distribution of Warm Sub-Saturns in TESS

We present the eccentricity distribution of warm sub-Saturns (4-8 Re, 8-200 day periods) as derived from an analysis of transit light curves from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. We use the "photoeccentric" effect to constrain the eccentricities of 76 planets, comprising 60 and 16 from single- and multi-transiting systems, respectively. We employ Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling to infer the eccentricity distribution of the population, testing both a Beta and Mixture Beta distribution. We identify a few highly eccentric (e ~ 0.7-0.8) warm sub-Saturns with eccentricities that appear too high to be explained by disk migration or planet-planet scattering alone, suggesting high-eccentricity migration may play a role in their formation. The majority of the population have a mean eccentricity of e = 0.103+0.047-0.045, consistent with both planet-disk and planet-planet interactions. Notably, we find that the highly eccentric sub-Saturns occur in single-transiting systems. This study presents the first evidence at the population level that the eccentricities of sub-Saturns may be sculpted by dynamical processes.

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arXiv2025

HD 35843: A Sun-like star hosting a long period sub-Neptune and inner super-Earth

We report the discovery and confirmation of two planets orbiting the metal-poor Sun-like star, HD 35843 (TOI 4189). HD 35843 c is a temperate sub-Neptune transiting planet with an orbital period of 46.96 days that was first identified by Planet Hunters TESS. We combine data from TESS and follow-up observations to rule out false-positive scenarios and validate the planet. We then use ESPRESSO radial velocities to confirm the planetary nature and characterize the planet's mass and orbit. Further analysis of these RVs reveals the presence of an additional planet, HD 35843 b, with a period of 9.90 days and a minimum mass of $5.84\pm0.84$ $M_{\oplus}$. For HD 35843 c, a joint photometric and spectroscopic analysis yields a radius of $2.54 \pm 0.08 R_{\oplus}$, a mass of $11.32 \pm 1.60 M_{\oplus}$, and an orbital eccentricity of $e = 0.15\pm0.07$. With a bulk density of $3.80 \pm 0.70$ g/cm$^3$, the planet might be rocky with a substantial H$_2$ atmosphere or it might be a ``water world". With an equilibrium temperature of $\sim$480 K, HD 35843 c is among the coolest $\sim 5\%$ of planets discovered by TESS. Combined with the host star's relative brightness (V= 9.4), HD 35843 c is a promising target for atmospheric characterization that will probe this sparse population of temperate sub-Neptunes.

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arXiv2025

A Swarm of WASP Planets: Nine giant planets identified by the WASP survey

The Wide Angle Search for Planets (WASP) survey provided some of the first transiting hot Jupiter candidates. With the addition of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), many WASP planet candidates have now been revisited and given updated transit parameters. Here we present 9 transiting planets orbiting FGK stars that were identified as candidates by the WASP survey and measured to have planetary masses by radial velocity measurements. Subsequent space-based photometry taken by TESS as well as ground-based photometric and spectroscopic measurements have been used to jointly analyze the planetary properties of WASP-102 b, WASP-116 b, WASP-149 b WASP-154 b, WASP-155 b, WASP-188 b, WASP-194 b/HAT-P-71 b, WASP-195 b, and WASP-197 b. These planets have radii between 0.9 R_Jup and 1.4 R_Jup, masses between 0.1 M_Jup and 1.5 M_Jup, and periods between 1.3 and 6.6 days.

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arXiv2025

TOI-6478 b: a cold under-dense Neptune transiting a fully convective M dwarf from the thick disc

Growing numbers of exoplanet detections continue to reveal the diverse nature of planetary systems. Planet formation around late-type M dwarfs is of particular interest. These systems provide practical laboratories to measure exoplanet occurrence rates for M dwarfs, thus testing how the outcomes of planet formation scale with host mass, and how they compare to Sun-like stars. Here, we report the discovery of TOI-6478b, a cold ($T_{\text{eq}}=204\,$K) Neptune-like planet orbiting an M5 star ($R_\star=0.234\pm0.012\,\text{R}_\odot$, $M_\star=0.230\pm0.007\,\text{M}_\odot$, $T_{\text{eff}}=3230\pm75\,$K) which is a member of the Milky Way's thick disc. We measure a planet radius of $R_b=4.6\pm0.24\,\text{R}_\oplus$ on a $P_b=34.005019\pm0.000025\,$d orbit. Using radial velocities, we calculate an upper mass limit of $M_b\leq9.9\,\text{M}_\oplus$ ($M_b\leq0.6\,\text{M}_{\text{Nep}})$, with $3\,σ$ confidence. TOI-6478b is a milestone planet in the study of cold, Neptune-like worlds. Thanks to its large atmospheric scale height, it is amenable to atmospheric characterisation with facilities such as JWST, and will provide an excellent probe of atmospheric chemistry in this cold regime. It is one of very few transiting exoplanets that orbit beyond their system's ice-line whose atmospheric chemical composition can be measured. Based on our current understanding of this planet, we estimate TOI-6478b's spectroscopic features (in transmission) can be $\sim2.5\times$ as high as the widely studied planet K2-18b.

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arXiv2025

TOI-2005b: An Eccentric Warm Jupiter in Spin-Orbit Alignment

We report the discovery and characterization of TOI-2005b, a warm Jupiter on an eccentric (e~0.59), 17.3-day orbit around a V_mag = 9.867 rapidly rotating F-star. The object was detected as a candidate by TESS and the planetary nature of TOI-2005b was then confirmed via a series of ground-based photometric, spectroscopic, and diffraction-limited imaging observations. The planet was found to reside in a low sky-projected stellar obliquity orbit (lambda = 4.8 degrees) via a transit spectroscopic observation using the Magellan MIKE spectrograph.TOI-2005b is one of a few planets known to have a low-obliquity, high-eccentricity orbit, which may be the result of high-eccentricity coplanar migration. The planet has a periastron equilibrium temperature of ~ 2100 K, similar to some highly irradiated hot Jupiters where atomic metal species have been detected in transmission spectroscopy, and varies by almost 1000 K during its orbit. Future observations of the atmosphere of TOI-2005b can inform us about its radiative timescales thanks to the rapid heating and cooling of the planet.

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arXiv2025

A Disintegrating Rocky Planet with Prominent Comet-like Tails Around a Bright Star

We report the discovery of BD+05$\,$4868$\,$Ab, a transiting exoplanet orbiting a bright ($V=10.16$) K-dwarf (TIC 466376085) with a period of 1.27 days. Observations from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) reveal variable transit depths and asymmetric transit profiles that are characteristic of comet-like tails formed by dusty effluents emanating from a disintegrating planet. Unique to BD+05$\,$4868$\,$Ab is the presence of prominent dust tails in both the trailing and leading directions that contribute to the extinction of starlight from the host star. By fitting the observed transit profile and analytically modeling the drift of dust grains within both dust tails, we infer large grain sizes ($\sim1-10\,μ$m) and a mass loss rate of $10\,M_{\rm \oplus}\,$Gyr$^{-1}$, suggestive of a lunar-mass object with a disintegration timescale of only several Myr. The host star is probably older than the Sun and is accompanied by an M-dwarf companion at a projected physical separation of 130 AU. The brightness of the host star, combined with the planet's relatively deep transits ($0.8-2.0\%$), presents BD+05$\,$4868$\,$Ab as a prime target for compositional studies of rocky exoplanets and investigations into the nature of catastrophically evaporating planets.

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arXiv2025

Constraining atmospheric composition from the outflow: helium observations reveal the fundamental properties of two planets straddling the radius gap

TOI-836 is a ~2-3 Gyr K dwarf with an inner super Earth ($R=1.7 R_\oplus$, $P=3.8$ d) and an outer mini Neptune ($R=2.6 R_\oplus$, $P=8.6$ d). JWST/NIRSpec 2.8--5.2 $μ$m transmission spectra are flat for both planets. We present Keck/NIRSPEC observations of escaping helium for super-Earth b, which shows no excess absorption in the 1083 nm triplet to deep limits (<0.2%), and mini-Neptune c, which shows strong (0.7%) excess absorption in both visits. These results demonstrate that planet c retains at least some primordial atmosphere, while planet b is consistent with having lost its entire primordial envelope. Self-consistent 1D radiative-hydrodynamic models of planet c reveal that the helium excess absorption signal is highly sensitive to metallicity: its equivalent width collapses by a factor of 13 as metallicity increases from 10x to 100x solar, and by a further factor of 12 as it increases to 200x solar. The observed equivalent width is 88% the model prediction for 100x metallicity, suggesting an atmospheric metallicity similar to K2-18b and TOI-270d, the first two mini-Neptunes with detected absorption features in JWST transmission spectra. We highlight the helium triplet as a potentially powerful probe of atmospheric composition, with complementary strengths and weaknesses to atmospheric retrievals. The main strength is its extreme sensitivity to metallicity in the scientifically significant range of 10--200x solar, and the main weakness is the enormous model uncertainties in outflow suppression and confinement mechanisms, such as magnetic fields and stellar winds, which can suppress the signal by at least a factor of ~several.

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