arXiv subjects

Karen J. Meech

Publications and source records attributed to Karen J. Meech.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

JCMT Constraints on the Early-Time HCN and CO Emission and HCN Temporal Evolution of 3I/ATLAS

Interstellar objects (ISOs), particularly those with cometary activity, provide unique insight into the primordial physical and chemical conditions present during the formation of the planetary system in which they originated. Observations in the sub-mm regime allow for direct measurements of several parent molecules released from the comet nucleus into the coma. Here we present observations of the third ISO, 3I/ATLAS, with the `Ū`ū heterodyne receiver on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT), which targeted emission from HCN($J = 3 - 2$) and CO($J = 2 - 1$). Our observations, taken between 16 July 2025 and 21 July 2025 (UT), when 3I/ATLAS was at a heliocentric distance between 4.01 and 3.84 au, provide the earliest sub-mm constraints on its activity. We do not detect HCN or CO in these epochs, with 3$σ$ upper-limits on the production rates of $Q(HCN) < 1.7 \times 10^{24}$ s$^{-1}$ at $r_h = 4.01 - 3.97$ au and $Q(CO) < 1.1 \times 10^{27}$ s$^{-1}$ at $r_h = 3.94 - 3.84$ au, respectively. We combine this HCN limit with later JCMT observations of HCN to constrain its temporal evolution. Fitting the HCN detections with a $Q(HCN) \propto r_h^{-n}$ model and accounting for the upper-limits yields $n = 12.7^{+6.9}_{-2.5}$. This slope is steeper than those of typical Solar System comets, but consistent with the production rate slopes measured for other species in the coma of 3I/ATLAS.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Contemporaneous Optical and Near-Infrared Observations of the Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS Pre- and Post-Perihelion

Interstellar objects provide a unique view into the formation of other star systems. Here we present spectroscopic observations of the recently discovered interstellar object 3I/ATLAS between a heliocentric distance of $3.7$ to $1.8$~au on either side of its travels through perihelion. We obtained several observations with the Keck-I/LRIS, Keck-II/NIRES, Gemini/GMOS, and UH88/SNIFS spectrographs, covering a wavelength range of $0.3 - 2.5~\mathrm{μm}$. We report the continued emission of both Ni and CN, along with post-perihelion detections of Fe and a weak detection of $\mathrm{C_3}$. We determine the spectral slope across optical and NIR wavelengths and find a positive spectral slope in the optical, with values ranging from $\sim 21 - 27\%$ in the blue regions ($0.4 - 0.55~\mathrm{μm}$) to $\sim 6 - 10\%$ in the red ($0.65 - 0.9~\mathrm{μm}$) regions. In contrast, the NIR showed a negative spectral slope of $\sim -0.9 \%$ between $0.9 - 1.5~\mathrm{μm}$ and $\sim -2.3\%$ between $1.9 - 2.5~\mathrm{μm}$. 3I/ATLAS shows a clear turnover in its spectral shape at $\sim 1.1~\mathrm{μm}$, corresponding to scattered light from the dusty coma. Finally, in the NIR, we do not find an increase in the depth of the water features identified in an earlier NIR observation of 3I/ATLAS. Our observations of 3I/ATLAS in the NIR show a similar shape to the NIR spectrum of 2I/Borisov as it approached perihelion.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Post-Perihelion Integral Field Spectroscopy of the Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS

The environs of other stellar systems may be directly probed by analyzing the cometary activity of interstellar objects. The recently discovered interstellar object 3I/ATLAS was the subject of an intensive worldwide follow-up campaign in its pre-perihelion approach. Now, 3I/ATLAS has begun its post-perihelion departure from the Solar System. In this letter, we report the first post-perihelion blue-sensitive integral-field unit spectroscopy of 3I/ATLAS using the Keck Cosmic Web Imager on November 16, 2025. We confirm previously reported CN, Fe, and Ni outgassing along with detections of carbon chain molecules $\mathrm{C}_2$ and $\mathrm{C}_3$. We calculate production rates for each species. We find Fe and Ni production rates of $\mathrm{Q_{Fe}} = (9.55\pm3.96)\times10^{25}$ atoms s$^{-1}$, and $\mathrm{Q_{Ni}} = (6.61\pm2.74)\times10^{25}$ atoms s$^{-1}$, resulting in a ratio of $\log(\mathrm{Q_{Ni}} / \mathrm{Q_{Fe}}) = -0.16\pm0.03$, which matches Solar System comets well and continues the pre-perihelion trend of declining $\log(\mathrm{Q_{Ni}} / \mathrm{Q_{Fe}})$ with $r_h$. We investigate the radial distributions of these elemental species and find characteristic $e$-folding radii of 3880$\pm$39 km for Ni, 6053$\pm$68 km for CN, 4194$\pm$45 km for $\mathrm{C}_2$, and 3833$\pm$45 km for $\mathrm{C}_3$. Compared to pre-perihelion measurements, these radii have increased by a factor of $\sim$6.5--7. Our post-perihelion observations reveal that 3I/ATLAS continues to exhibit cometary behavior broadly consistent with Solar System comets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Spectroscopic Characterization of Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS: Water Ice in the Coma

We present optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, obtained with Gemini-S/GMOS and NASA IRTF/SpeX on 2025 July 5 and July 14. The optical spectrum shows a red slope of approximately 10% per 1000 angstroms between 0.5 and 0.8 microns, closely resembling that of typical D-type asteroids. At longer wavelengths, the near-infrared spectrum flattens significantly to approximately 3% per 1000 angstroms from 0.9 to 1.5 microns, consistent with the spectral behavior of large water ice grains in the coma. Spectral modeling with an areal mixture of 70% Tagish Lake meteorite and 30% 10-micron-sized water ice successfully reproduces both the overall continuum and the broad absorption feature near 2.0 microns. The 1.5-micron water ice band, however, is not detected, likely due to the limited signal-to-noise of the IRTF data and dilution by refractory materials. The ~30% ice fraction should be interpreted as an approximate, order-of-magnitude estimate of the coma composition. The agreement between the GMOS and SpeX spectra, taken nine days apart, suggests short-term stability in the coma's optical properties. Our observations reveal that 3I/ATLAS is an active interstellar comet containing abundant water ice, with a dust composition more similar to D-type asteroids than to ultrared trans-Neptunian objects.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Discovery and Preliminary Characterization of a Third Interstellar Object: 3I/ATLAS

We report initial observations aimed at the characterization of a third interstellar object. This object, 3I/ATLAS or C/2025 N1 (ATLAS), was discovered on 2025 July 1 UT and has an orbital eccentricity of $e\sim6.1$, perihelion of $q\sim 1.36$ au, inclination of $\sim175^\circ$, and hyperbolic velocity of $V_\infty\sim 58$ km s$^{-1}$. We report deep stacked images obtained using the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope and the Very Large Telescope that resolve a compact coma. Using images obtained from several smaller ground-based telescopes, we find minimal light curve variation for the object over a $\sim4$ day time span. The visible/near-infrared spectral slope of the object is 17.1$\pm$0.2 %/100 nm, comparable to other interstellar objects and primitive solar system small bodies (comets and D-type asteroids). 3I/ATLAS will be observable through early September 2025, then unobservable by Earth-based observatories near perihelion due to low solar elongation. It will be observable again from the ground in late November 2025. Although this limitation unfortunately prohibits detailed Earth-based observations at perihelion when the activity of 3I/ATLAS is likely to peak, spacecraft at Mars could be used to make valuable observations at this time.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Two Distinct Populations of Dark Comets Delineated by Orbits and Sizes

Small bodies are capable of delivering essential prerequisites for the development of life, such as volatiles and organics, to the terrestrial planets. For example, empirical evidence suggests that water was delivered to the Earth by hydrated planetesimals from distant regions of the Solar System. Recently, several morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) were reported to experience significant nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiation-based effects, and possibly explained by volatile-driven outgassing. However, these "dark comets" display no evidence of comae in archival images, which are the defining feature of cometary activity. Here we report detections of nongravitational accelerations on seven additional objects previously classified as inactive (doubling the population) that could also be explainable by asymmetric mass loss. A detailed search of archival survey and targeted data rendered no detection of dust activity in any of these objects in individual or stacked images. We calculate dust production limits of $\sim10$, $0.1$, and $0.1$ kg s$^{-1}$ for 1998 FR$_{11}$, 2001 ME$_{1}$, and 2003 RM with these data, indicating little or no dust surrounding the objects during the observations. This set of dark comets reveals the delineation between two distinct populations: larger, "outer" dark comets on eccentric orbits that are end members of a continuum in activity level of comets, and smaller, "inner" dark comets on near-circular orbits that could signify a new population. These objects may trace various stages in the life cycle of a previously undetected, but potentially numerous, volatile-rich population that may have provided essential material to the Earth.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Fitting the Light Curve of 1I/`Oumuamua with a Nonprincipal Axis Rotational Model and Outgassing Torques

In this paper, we investigate the nonprincipal axis (NPA) rotational state of 1I/`Oumuamua -- the first interstellar object discovered traversing the inner Solar System -- from its photometric light curve. Building upon Mashchenko (2019), we develop a model which incorporates NPA rotation and {Sun-induced, time-varying} outgassing torques to generate synthetic light curves of the object. The model neglects tidal forces, which are negligible compared to outgassing torques over the distances that `Oumuamua was observed. We implement an optimization scheme that incorporates the NPA rotation model to calculate the initial rotation state of the object. We find that an NPA rotation state with an average period of $\langle P \rangle\simeq7.34$ hr best reproduces the photometric data. The discrepancy between this period and previous estimates is due to continuous period modulation induced by outgassing torques in the rotational model, {as well as different periods being used}. The best fit to the October 2017 data does not reproduce the November 2017 data (although the later measurements are too sparse to fit). The light curve is consistent with no secular evolution of the angular momentum, somewhat in tension with the empirical correlations between nuclear spin-up and cometary outgassing. The complex rotation of `Oumuamua may be {the result of primordial rotation about the smallest principal axis} if (i) the object experienced hypervolatile outgassing and (ii) our idealized outgassing model is accurate.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Numerical Simulations of Tidal Deformation and Resulting Light Curves of Small Bodies: Material Constraints of 99942 Apophis and 1I/`Oumuamua

In this paper, we present an open source software ($\texttt{SAMUS}$) which simulates constant-density, constant-viscosity liquid bodies subject to tidal forces for a range of assumed viscosites and sizes. This software solves the Navier-Stokes equations on a finite-element mesh, incorporating the centrifugal, Coriolis, self-gravitational, and tidal forces. The primary functionality is to simulate the deformation of minor bodies under the influence of tidal forces. It may therefore be used to constrain the composition and physical structure of bodies experiencing significant tidal forces, such as 99942 Apophis and 1I/`Oumuamua. We demonstrate that $\texttt{SAMUS}$ will be useful to constrain the material properties of Apophis during its near-Earth flyby in 2029. Depending on the material properties, Apophis may experience an area change of up to 0.5\%, with similar effects on the photometric brightness. We also apply $\texttt{SAMUS}$ to constrain the material dynamic viscosity of 1I/`Oumuamua, the first interstellar object discovered traversing the inner Solar System. `Oumuamua experienced a close approach to the Sun at perihelion ($q\simeq 0.25$ au) during which there were significant tidal forces that may have caused deformation of the body. This deformation could have lead to observable changes in the photometric light curve based on the material properties. The application of $\texttt{SAMUS}$ to produce synthetic observations which incorporate tidal deformation effects demonstrate that no deformation -- an infinite dynamic viscosity -- best reproduces the photometric data. While these results indicate that `Oumuamua did not experience significant tidal deformation, a sophisticated model incorporating non-principal axis rotation is necessary to conclusively analyze both `Oumuamua and Apophis.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids

We report statistically significant detections of non-radial nongravitational accelerations based on astrometric data in the photometrically inactive objects 1998 KY$_{26}$, 2005 VL$_1$, 2016 NJ$_{33}$, 2010 VL$_{65}$, 2016 RH$_{120}$, and 2010 RF$_{12}$. The magnitudes of the nongravitational accelerations are greater than those typically induced by the Yarkovsky effect and there is no radiation-based, non-radial effect that can be so large. Therefore, we hypothesize that the accelerations are driven by outgassing, and calculate implied H$_2$O production rates for each object. We attempt to reconcile outgassing induced acceleration with the lack of visible comae or photometric activity via the absence of surface dust and low levels of gas production. Although these objects are small and some are rapidly rotating, surface cohesive forces are stronger than the rotational forces and rapid rotation alone cannot explain the lack of surface debris. It is possible that surface dust was removed previously, perhaps via outgassing activity that increased the rotation rates to their present day value. We calculate dust production rates of order $\sim10^{-4}$ g s$^{-1}$ in each object assuming that the nuclei are bare, within the upper limits of dust production from a sample stacked image of 1998 KY$_{26}$ of $\dot{M}_{\rm Dust}<0.2$ g s$^{-1}$. This production corresponds to brightness variations of order $\sim0.0025\%$, which are undetectable in extant photometric data. We assess the future observability of each of these targets, and find that the orbit of 1998 KY$_{26}$ -- which is also the target for the extended Hayabusa2 mission -- exhibits favorable viewing geometry before 2025.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

(523599) 2003 RM: The asteroid that wanted to be a comet

We report a statistically significant detection of nongravitational acceleration on the sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid (523599) 2003 RM. Due to its orbit, 2003 RM experiences favorable observing apparitions every 5 years. Thus, since its discovery, 2003 RM has been extensively tracked with ground-based optical facilities in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018. We find that the observed plane-of-sky positions cannot be explained with a purely gravity-driven trajectory. Including a transverse nongravitational acceleration allows us to match all observational data, but its magnitude is inconsistent with perturbations typical of asteroids such as the Yarkovsky effect or solar radiation pressure. After ruling out that the orbital deviations are due to a close approach or collision with another asteroid, we hypothesize that this anomalous acceleration is caused by unseen cometary outgassing. A detailed search for evidence of cometary activity with archival and deep observations from Pan-STARRS and the VLT does not reveal any detectable dust production. However, the best-fitting H$_2$O sublimation model allows for brightening due to activity consistent with the scatter of the data. We estimate the production rate required for H$_2$O outgassing to power the acceleration, and find that, assuming a diameter of 300 m, 2003 RM would require Q(H$_2$O)$\sim10^{23}$ molec s$^{-1}$ at perihelion. We investigate the recent dynamical history of 2003 RM and find that the object most likely originated in the mid-to-outer main belt ($\sim86\%$) as opposed to from the Jupiter-family comet region ($\sim11\%$). Further observations, especially in the infrared, could shed light on the nature of this anomalous acceleration.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

TNO or Comet? The Search for Activity and Characterization of Distant Object 418993 (2009 MS9)

2009 MS9 is a trans-Neptunian object (TNO) whose perihelion brings it close to the distance where some long period comets are seen to become active. Knowing this, and the fact that this object appears to brighten in excess of it's predicted nucleus brightness suggests that 2009 MS9 has a delayed onset of activity brought on by the sublimation of a species more volatile than water. In this paper we characterize 2009 MS9's physical properties and investigate potential outgassing through composite images, sublimation models, and measurements of spectral reflectivity. We find that deep composite images of the object at various epochs along its orbit show no evidence of dust yet place sensitive limits to the dust production. We estimate the nucleus radius to be 11.5 km $\pm 3.5$ km using thermal IR modeling from NEOWISE data and use this and data pre-perihelion to estimate a geometric albedo of 0.25. We compare a CO-sublimation activity model to its post perihelion heliocentric light curve and find this data supports an active fractional area of $5 \times 10^{-6}$ assuming 2 $μ$m sized grains and other typical comet parameters. The spectral reflectivity of the surface materials obtained with the Gemini Observatory and CFHT at different epochs shows a reddening spectral slope. We compare the physical properties of 2009 MS9 to both TNO and comet populations, and speculate that 2009 MS9's reddening may be due to the buildup of a dust mantle on the surface and could be an explanation of why TNOs exhibit a color bimodality.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Compact pebbles and the evolution of volatiles in the interstellar comet 2I/Borisov

The interstellar traveler, 2I/Borisov, is the first clearly active extrasolar comet, ever detected in our Solar system. We obtained high-resolution interferometric observations of 2I/Borisov with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), and multi-color optical observations with the Very Large Telescope (VLT) to gain a comprehensive understanding of the dust properties of this comet. We found that the dust coma of 2I/Borisov consists of compact "pebbles" of radii exceeding ~1 mm, suggesting that the dust particles have experienced compaction through mutual impacts during the bouncing collision phase in the protoplanetary disk. We derived a dust mass loss rate of >= 200 kg/s and a dust-to-gas ratio >=3. Our long term monitoring of 2I/Borisov with VLT indicates a steady dust mass loss with no significant dust fragmentation and/or sublimation occurring in the coma. We also detected emissions from carbon monoxide gas (CO) with ALMA and derived the gas production rate of Q(CO) (3.3+/-0.8)x10^{26} mole/s. We found that the CO/H$_2$O mixing ratio of 2I/Borisov changed drastically before and after perihelion, indicating the heterogeneity of the cometary nucleus, with components formed at different locations beyond the volatile snow-line with different chemical abundances. Our observations suggest that 2I/Borisov's home system, much like our own system, experienced efficient radial mixing from the innermost parts of its protoplanetary disk to beyond the frost line of CO.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Characterizing the Manx Candidate A/2018 V3

Manx objects approach the inner solar system on long-period comet (LPC) orbits with the consequent high inbound velocities, but unlike comets, Manxes display very little to no activity even near perihelion. This suggests that they may have formed in circumstances different from typical LPCs; moreover, this lack of significant activity also renders them difficult to detect at large distances. Thus, analyzing their physical properties can help constrain models of solar system formation as well as sharpen detection methods for those classified as NEOs. Here, we focus on the Manx candidate A/2018 V3 as part of a larger effort to characterize Manxes as a whole. This particular object was observed to be inactive even at its perihelion at $q$ = 1.34 au in 2019 September. Its spectral reflectivity is consistent with typical organic-rich comet surfaces with colors of $g'-r'= 0.67\pm0.02$, $r'-i' = 0.26\pm0.02$, and $r'-z' = 0.45\pm0.02$, corresponding to a spectral reflectivity slope of $10.6\pm 0.9$ %/100nm. A least-squares fit of our constructed light curve to the observational data yields an average nucleus radius of $\approx$2 km assuming an albedo of 0.04. This is consistent with the value measured from NEOWISE. A surface brightness analysis for data taken 2020 July 13 indicated possible low activity ($\lesssim0.68$ g $\rm s^{-1}$), but not enough to lift optically significant amounts of dust. Finally, we discuss Manxes as a constraint on solar system dynamical models as well as their implications for planetary defense.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Transformative Planetary Science with the US ELT Program

The proposed US Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) Program would secure national open access to at least 25% of the observing time on the Thirty Meter Telescope in the north and the Giant Magellan Telescope in the south. ELTs would advance solar system science via exceptional angular resolution, sensitivity, and advanced instrumentation. ELT contributions would include the study of interstellar objects, giant planet systems and ocean worlds, the formation of the solar system traced through small objects in the asteroid and Kuiper belts, and the active support of planetary missions. We recommend that (1) the US ELT Program be listed as critical infrastructure for solar system science, that (2) some support from NASA be provided to ensure mission support capabilities, and that (3) the US ELT Program expand solar-system community participation in development, planning, and operations.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

A search for the origin of the interstellar comet 2I/Borisov

The discovery of the second interstellar object 2I/Borisov on 2019 August 30 raises the question of whether it was ejected recently from a nearby stellar system. Here we compute the asymptotic incoming trajectory of 2I/Borisov, based on both recent and pre-discovery data extending back to December 2018, using a range of force models that account for cometary outgassing. From Gaia DR2 astrometry and radial velocities, we trace back in time the Galactic orbits of 7.4 million stars to look for close encounters with 2I/Borisov. The closest encounter we find took place 910kyr ago with the M0V star Ross 573, at a separation of 0.068pc (90% confidence interval of 0.053-0.09pc) with a relative velocity of 23km/s. This encounter is nine times closer than the closest past encounter identified for the first interstellar object 1I/'Oumuamua. Ejection of 2I/Borisov via a three-body encounter in a binary or planetary system is possible, although such a large ejection velocity is unlikely to be obtained and Ross 573 shows no signs of binarity. We also identify and discuss some other recent close encounters, recognizing that if 2I/Borisov is more than about 10Myr old, our search would be unlikely to find its parent system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Pre-discovery Activity of New Interstellar Comet 2I/Borisov Beyond 5 AU

Comet 2I/Borisov, the first unambiguous interstellar comet ever found, was discovered in August 2019 at $\sim3$ au from the Sun on its inbound leg. No pre-discovery detection beyond 3 au has yet been reported, mostly due to the comet's proximity to the Sun as seen from the Earth. Here we present a search for pre-discovery detections of comet Borisov using images taken by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS), Pan-STARRS and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), with a further comprehensive follow-up campaign being presented in \citet{Bolin2019}. We identified comet Borisov in ZTF images taken in May 2019 and use these data to update its orbit. This allowed us to identify the comet in images acquired as far back as December 2018, when it was 7.8 au from the Sun. The comet was not detected in November 2018 when it was 8.6 au from the Sun, possibly implying an onset of activity around this time. This suggests that the activity of the comet is either driven by a more volatile species other than H$_2$O, such as CO or CO$_2$, or by exothermic crystallization of amorphous ice. We derive the radius of the nucleus to be $<7$ km using the non-detection in November 2018, and estimate an area of $\sim0.5$---$10 \mathrm{km^2}$ has been active between December 2018 and September 2019, though this number is model-dependent and is highly uncertain. The behavior of comet Borisov during its inbound leg is observationally consistent with dynamically new comets observed in our solar system, suggesting some similarities between the two.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Searching for water ice in the coma of interstellar object 2I/Borisov

Interstellar Objects (ISO) passing through our Solar System offer a rare opportunity to probe the physical and chemical processes involved in solid body and planet formation in extrasolar systems. The main objective of our study is to search for diagnostic absorption features of water ice in the near infrared (NIR) spectrum of the second interstellar object 2I/2019 Q4 (Borisov) and compare its ice features to those of the Solar system icy objects. We observed 2I in the NIR on three separate occasions. The first observation was made on 2019 September 19 UT using the SpeX spectrograph at the 3-m IRTF and again on September 24 UT with the GNIRS spectrograph at the 8-m GEMINI telescope and the last observation was made on October 09 UT with IRTF. The spectra obtained from all three nights appear featureless. No absorption features associated with water ice are detected. Spectral modeling suggests that water grains, if present, comprise no more than 10% of the coma cross-section. The comet consistently exhibits a red D-type like spectrum with a spectral slope of about 6% per 100nm, which is similar to that of 1I/'Oumuamua and is comparable to Solar system comets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Detailed Characterization of Low Activity Comet 49P/Arend-Rigaux

Comet 49P/Arend-Rigaux is a well known low-activity Jupiter Family comet. Despite the low activity, we have witnessed outgassing activity in 1992, 2004, and 2012. In 2012 a broad tail-like feature (PA$\sim270^\circ, \sim2.3\times10^5$ km) and a narrow jet-like feature (PA$\sim180^\circ, \sim9.3\times10^4$ km) were seen simultaneously. Using Finson-Probstein (FP) dust dynamical models we determine: grain sizes released in each event; duration of activity; when activity peaked; and velocity of the dust particles, allowing us to make comparisons between the events. We find that the tail feature in 2012 is similar to the tail in 1992 with large grains (40-4000 $μ$m) peaking in activity near perihelion with a long outgassing duration greater than 150 days. The jet feature from 2012, however, is more similar to the 2004 event which we model with small grains (1-8 $μ$m) with a short duration of activity ($\sim$1 month). The main difference between these two features is that the 2004 event occurs prior to perihelion, while the 2012 event is post-perihelion. We use the grain sizes from the FP models to constrain ice sublimation models. Between 1985 and 2018 we cover 6 apparitions with 26 nights of our own observations plus data from the literature and the Minor Planet Center, which together, allow us to model the heliocentric light curve. We find that the models are consistent with H$_2$O ice sublimation as the volatile responsible for driving activity over most of the active phases and a combination of H$_2$O and CO$_2$ ices are responsible for driving activity near perihelion. We measure the fractional active area over time for H$_2$O and discover that the activity decreases from an average active area of $\sim3\%$ to $\sim0.2\%$. This secular decrease in activity implies that the comet is becoming depleted of volatiles and is in the process of transitioning to a dormant or dead state.

astro-ph.EP↗