arXiv subjects

Karina Aprilia Sujatmiko

Publications and source records attributed to Karina Aprilia Sujatmiko.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Spall Failure of Coral Skeleton beneath Gas-Laden Canopies: An Idealized Blast-Fishing Model

Improvised explosives used for fishing on shallow Indonesian reefs shatter coral skeleton, yet the damage they cause has been described largely through empirical radii and ecological surveys. We formulate an idealized model of how free gas held within a coral canopy modifies the shock loading that such a charge delivers to skeletal plates. The canopy is treated as a relaxed bubbly mixture whose shock impedance follows from the conservation of mass and momentum, and the reef is represented as a layered column of water, canopy, skeletal plate, and canopy struck at normal incidence. Three closed-form results emerge. Above a crossover pressure set by the void fraction and the stiffness of seawater, the canopy becomes nearly transparent to the shock. The impulse transmitted through any lossless layered stack is independent of the canopy, so gas redistributes the pulse in time without changing its total push. A plate carries tension after reflection from its lower face only when the canopy impedance falls below a threshold fixed by the plate thickness and the pulse duration, which defines a critical thickness. For a one-kilogram charge directly overhead, a gas-rich canopy more than triples the standoff at which a twelve-centimeter plate spalls while shortening the standoff at which it is crushed. A prescribed daily cycle of photosynthetic gas makes the same charge markedly more damaging at noon than at night. Bubble dynamics show that the canopy does not reach equilibrium within the pulse, so the results are best read as upper bounds.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2026

A Reduced-Order Dynamical Model for the Ignition of Diver-Induced Cohesive Silt-Out on Sloping Beds

A downward fin thrust near a cohesive seabed lofts sediment. Whether this cloud settles or organizes into a self-sustaining down-slope current determines if a diver loses visibility briefly or catastrophically. We reduce the layer-averaged balances of fluid mass, sediment mass, and momentum to a temporal slab of fixed thickness in the weakly entraining limit. This yields an autonomous planar vector field in dimensionless near-bed speed and suspended load, governed by three dimensionless groups: drag against settling, erosion strength, and near-bed concentration. The field possesses a quiescent equilibrium at the origin and, above a critical bed slope obtained in closed form as the ratio of near-bed concentration times drag-settling number to erosion-strength number, an interior saddle equilibrium. The saddle's stable manifold partitions the state space into basins of decay and unbounded growth, establishing the exact threshold between self-limiting and igniting disturbances. On a flat bed, the origin attracts globally for all admissible erosion laws. For representative silt, the ignition threshold is near a 17-degree bed angle. The closed-form structure is confirmed numerically to machine precision. A closure study demonstrates the critical slope is robust in existence but closure-dependent in value, identifying the linear erosion law as the conservative choice. The model thus isolates bed slope as the controlling parameter for ignition.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2026

Measuring Primitive Accumulation: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Capitalist Enclosure in PIK2, Indonesia

Large-scale land enclosure for speculative mega-development constitutes a non-equilibrium spatial process whose velocity, topology, and irreversibility remain poorly quantified. We study the Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 (PIK2) coastal mega-development north of Jakarta, Indonesia, using eight years (2017--2024) of Sentinel-2 land-use/land-cover (LULC) data at 10-meter resolution. The landscape is projected onto a Marxian probability simplex partitioning terrestrial pixels into Commons, Agrarian, and Capital fractions. Fisher-Rao (FR) geodesic distances on this simplex identify a transformation pulse of $0.405$~rad/yr during 2019--2020, coinciding with major construction activity. Absorbing Markov chain analysis yields expected absorption times into the built environment of $46.0$~years for cropland and $38.1$~years for tree cover, with a pooled built-area self-retention rate of $96.4\%$. Percolation analysis reveals that a giant connected component containing $89$--$95\%$ of all built pixels persists at occupation probabilities $p \in [0.096, 0.162]$, far below the random percolation threshold $p_c \approx 0.593$, indicating planned rather than stochastic spatial growth. The box-counting fractal dimension of the urban boundary increases from $d_f = 1.316$ to $1.397$, consistent with increasingly irregular frontier expansion. These results suggest that information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can characterize the kinematic and topological signatures of capitalist spatial accumulation with quantitative precision.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

An Idealized Delay-Differential Model of Scuba Diver Porpoising and Runaway Ascent

A scuba diver holding constant depth balances on an unstable equilibrium: the gas carried in the suit and buoyancy compensator compresses with depth, so the buoyant force falls as the diver sinks and rises as the diver ascends. We represent the diver as a proportional-derivative controller that regulates this compressible-buoyancy saddle after a finite reaction delay, and we derive the governing delay differential equation from the vertical force balance and the isothermal gas law, reducing it to a damping ratio, two control gains, and a dimensionless delay. The characteristic spectrum, obtained by pseudospectral collocation of the semigroup generator and checked against a direct Newton solution of the characteristic equation, locates the Hopf boundary that separates stable hovering from sustained porpoising; for the baseline diver the critical reaction delay is 3.36 s and the onset period is 28.8 s. The bifurcation is supercritical, and because the saturating force is the quadratic hydrodynamic drag, the limit-cycle amplitude grows in proportion to the delay excess rather than as its square root. The safe-operating envelope shows that runaway ascent is triggered by saturation of the compensator, not by loss of linear stability, so a stable and an unstable diver can share the same escape threshold. As onset is approached, the lag-one autocorrelation and variance rise while the fitted recovery rate falls and matches the spectral abscissa, giving an eigenvalue-exact early warning of the transition.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2026

Causal Attribution of Coastal Water Clarity Degradation to Nickel Processing Expansion at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Sulawesi

Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, $K_d(490)$, to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings.

physics.ao-ph↗