arXiv subjects

Karsten Peters

Publications and source records attributed to Karsten Peters.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2015

A data-driven method for the stochastic parametrisation of subgrid-scale tropical convective area fraction

Observations of tropical convection from precipitation radar and the concurring large-scale atmospheric state at two locations (Darwin and Kwajalein) are used to establish effective stochastic models to parameterise subgrid-scale tropical convective activity. Two approaches are presented which rely on the assumption that tropical convection induces a stationary equilibrium distribution. In the first approach we parameterise convection variables such as convective area fraction as an instantaneous random realisation conditioned on the large-scale vertical velocities according to a probability density function estimated from the observations. In the second approach convection variables are generated in a Markov process conditioned on the large-scale vertical velocity, allowing for non-trivial temporal correlations. Despite the different prevalent atmospheric and oceanic regimes at the two locations, with Kwajalein being exposed to a purely oceanic weather regime and Darwin exhibiting land-sea interaction, we establish that the empirical measure for the convective variables conditioned on large-scale mid-level vertical velocities for the two locations are close. This allows us to train the stochastic models at one location and then generate time series of convective activity at the other location. The proposed stochastic subgrid-scale models adequately reproduce the statistics of the observed convective variables and we discuss how they may be used in future scale-independent mass-flux convection parameterisations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2010

BioLogistics and the Struggle for Efficiency: Concepts and Perspectives

The growth of world population, limitation of resources, economic problems and environmental issues force engineers to develop increasingly efficient solutions for logistic systems. Pure optimization for efficiency, however, has often led to technical solutions that are vulnerable to variations in supply and demand, and to perturbations. In contrast, nature already provides a large variety of efficient, flexible and robust logistic solutions. Can we utilize biological principles to design systems, which can flexibly adapt to hardly predictable, fluctuating conditions? We propose a bio-inspired "BioLogistics" approach to deduce dynamic organization processes and principles of adaptive self-control from biological systems, and to transfer them to man-made logistics (including nanologistics), using principles of modularity, self-assembly, self-organization, and decentralized coordination. Conversely, logistic models can help revealing the logic of biological processes at the systems level.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2008

Analytical and Numerical Investigation of Ant Behavior Under Crowded Conditions

Swarm intelligence is widely recognized as a powerful paradigm of self-organized optimization, with numerous examples of successful applications in distributed artificial intelligence. However, the role of physical interactions in the organization of traffic flows in ants under crowded conditions has only been studied very recently. The related results suggest new ways of congestion control and simple algorithms for optimal resource usage based on local interactions and, therefore, decentralized control concepts. Here, we present a mathematical analysis of such a concept for an experiment with two alternative ways with limited capacities between a food source and the nest of an ant colony. Moreover, we carry out microscopic computer simulations for generalized setups, in which ants have more alternatives or the alternative ways are of different lengths. In this way and by variation of interaction parameters, we can get a better idea, how powerful congestion control based on local repulsive interactions may be. Finally, we will discuss potential applications of this design principle to routing in traffic or data networks and machine usage in supply systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2008

Dynamic Effects Increasing Network Vulnerability to Cascading Failures

We study cascading failures in networks using a dynamical flow model based on simple conservation and distribution laws to investigate the impact of transient dynamics caused by the rebalancing of loads after an initial network failure (triggering event). It is found that considering the flow dynamics may imply reduced network robustness compared to previous static overload failure models. This is due to the transient oscillations or overshooting in the loads, when the flow dynamics adjusts to the new (remaining) network structure. We obtain {\em upper} and {\em lower} limits to network robustness, and it is shown that {\it two} time scales $τ$ and $τ_0$, defined by the network dynamics, are important to consider prior to accurately addressing network robustness or vulnerability. The robustness of networks showing cascading failures is generally determined by a complex interplay between the network topology and flow dynamics, where the ratio $χ=τ/τ_0$ determines the relative role of the two of them.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2007

Efficient Response to Cascading Disaster Spreading

We study the effectiveness of recovery strategies for a dynamic model of failure spreading in networks. These strategies control the distribution of resources based on information about the current network state and network topology. In order to assess their success, we have performed a series of simulation experiments. The considered parameters of these experiments are the network topology, the response time delay and the overall disposition of resources. Our investigations are focused on the comparison of strategies for different scenarios and the determination of the most appropriate strategy. The importance of prompt response and the minimum sufficient quantity of resources are discussed as well.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2006

Decentralised control of material or traffic flows in networks using phase-synchronisation

We present a self-organising, decentralised control method for material flows in networks. The concept applies to networks where time sharing mechanisms between conflicting flows in nodes are required and where a coordination of these local switches on a system-wide level can improve the performance. We show that, under certain assumptions, the control of nodes can be mapped to a network of phase-oscillators. By synchronising these oscillators, the desired global coordination is achieved. We illustrate the method in the example of traffic signal control for road networks. The proposed concept is flexible, adaptive, robust and decentralised. It can be transferred to other queuing networks such as production systems. Our control approach makes use of simple synchronisation principles found in various biological systems in order to obtain collective behaviour from local interactions.

physics.soc-ph↗