arXiv subjects

Karthika Mohan

Publications and source records attributed to Karthika Mohan.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Planning under Distribution Shifts with Causal POMDPs

In the real world, planning is often challenged by distribution shifts. As such, a model of the environment obtained under one set of conditions may no longer remain valid as the distribution of states or the environment dynamics change, which in turn causes previously learned strategies to fail. In this work, we propose a theoretical framework for planning under partial observability using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) formulated using causal knowledge. By representing shifts in the environment as interventions on this causal POMDP, the framework enables evaluating plans under hypothesized changes and actively identifying which components of the environment have been altered. We show how to maintain and update a belief over both the latent state and the underlying domain, and we prove that the value function remains piecewise linear and convex (PWLC) in this augmented belief space. Preservation of PWLC under distribution shifts has the advantage of maintaining the tractability of planning via $\alpha$-vector-based POMDP methods.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Do Finetti: On Causal Effects for Exchangeable Data

We study causal effect estimation in a setting where the data are not i.i.d. (independent and identically distributed). We focus on exchangeable data satisfying an assumption of independent causal mechanisms. Traditional causal effect estimation frameworks, e.g., relying on structural causal models and do-calculus, are typically limited to i.i.d. data and do not extend to more general exchangeable generative processes, which naturally arise in multi-environment data. To address this gap, we develop a generalized framework for exchangeable data and introduce a truncated factorization formula that facilitates both the identification and estimation of causal effects in our setting. To illustrate potential applications, we introduce a causal Pólya urn model and demonstrate how intervention propagates effects in exchangeable data settings. Finally, we develop an algorithm that performs simultaneous causal discovery and effect estimation given multi-environment data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Graphical Models for Processing Missing Data

This paper reviews recent advances in missing data research using graphical models to represent multivariate dependencies. We first examine the limitations of traditional frameworks from three different perspectives: \textit{transparency, estimability and testability}. We then show how procedures based on graphical models can overcome these limitations and provide meaningful performance guarantees even when data are Missing Not At Random (MNAR). In particular, we identify conditions that guarantee consistent estimation in broad categories of missing data problems, and derive procedures for implementing this estimation. Finally we derive testable implications for missing data models in both MAR (Missing At Random) and MNAR categories.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data

We propose an efficient family of algorithms to learn the parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. In contrast to textbook approaches such as EM and the gradient method, our approach is non-iterative, yields closed form parameter estimates, and eliminates the need for inference in a Bayesian network. Our approach provides consistent parameter estimates for missing data problems that are MCAR, MAR, and in some cases, MNAR. Empirically, our approach is orders of magnitude faster than EM (as our approach requires no inference). Given sufficient data, we learn parameters that can be orders of magnitude more accurate.

cs.LG↗