arXiv subjects

Karthikeyan Shanmugam

Publications and source records attributed to Karthikeyan Shanmugam.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Online Bidding under RoS Constraints without Knowing the Value

We consider the problem of bidding in online advertising, where an advertiser aims to maximize value while adhering to budget and Return-on-Spend (RoS) constraints. Unlike prior work that assumes knowledge of the value generated by winning each impression ({e.g.,} conversions), we address the more realistic setting where the advertiser must simultaneously learn the optimal bidding strategy and the value of each impression opportunity. This introduces a challenging exploration-exploitation dilemma: the advertiser must balance exploring different bids to estimate impression values with exploiting current knowledge to bid effectively. To address this, we propose a novel Upper Confidence Bound (UCB)-style algorithm that carefully manages this trade-off. Via a rigorous theoretical analysis, we prove that our algorithm achieves $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T\log(|\mathcal{B}|T)})$ regret and constraint violation, where $T$ is the number of bidding rounds and $\mathcal{B}$ is the domain of possible bids. This establishes the first optimal regret and constraint violation bounds for bidding in the online setting with unknown impression values. Moreover, our algorithm is computationally efficient and simple to implement. We validate our theoretical findings through experiments on synthetic data, demonstrating that our algorithm exhibits strong empirical performance compared to existing approaches.

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arXiv2025

Time-Reversal Provides Unsupervised Feedback to LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically trained to predict in the forward direction of time. However, recent works have shown that prompting these models to look back and critique their own generations can produce useful feedback. Motivated by this, we explore the question of whether LLMs can be empowered to think (predict and score) backwards to provide unsupervised feedback that complements forward LLMs. Towards this, we introduce Time Reversed Language Models (TRLMs), which can score and generate queries when conditioned on responses, effectively functioning in the reverse direction of time. Further, to effectively infer in the response to query direction, we pre-train and fine-tune a language model (TRLM-Ba) in the reverse token order from scratch. We show empirically (and theoretically in a stylized setting) that time-reversed models can indeed complement forward model predictions when used to score the query given response for re-ranking multiple forward generations. We obtain up to 5\% improvement on the widely used AlpacaEval Leaderboard over the competent baseline of best-of-N re-ranking using self log-perplexity scores. We further show that TRLM scoring outperforms conventional forward scoring of response given query, resulting in significant gains in applications such as citation generation and passage retrieval. We next leverage the generative ability of TRLM to augment or provide unsupervised feedback to input safety filters of LLMs, demonstrating a drastic reduction in false negative rate with negligible impact on false positive rates against several attacks published on the popular JailbreakBench leaderboard.

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arXiv2024

Linear Causal Representation Learning from Unknown Multi-node Interventions

Despite the multifaceted recent advances in interventional causal representation learning (CRL), they primarily focus on the stylized assumption of single-node interventions. This assumption is not valid in a wide range of applications, and generally, the subset of nodes intervened in an interventional environment is fully unknown. This paper focuses on interventional CRL under unknown multi-node (UMN) interventional environments and establishes the first identifiability results for general latent causal models (parametric or nonparametric) under stochastic interventions (soft or hard) and linear transformation from the latent to observed space. Specifically, it is established that given sufficiently diverse interventional environments, (i) identifiability up to ancestors is possible using only soft interventions, and (ii) perfect identifiability is possible using hard interventions. Remarkably, these guarantees match the best-known results for more restrictive single-node interventions. Furthermore, CRL algorithms are also provided that achieve the identifiability guarantees. A central step in designing these algorithms is establishing the relationships between UMN interventional CRL and score functions associated with the statistical models of different interventional environments. Establishing these relationships also serves as constructive proof of the identifiability guarantees.

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arXiv2024

Bayesian Collaborative Bandits with Thompson Sampling for Improved Outreach in Maternal Health Program

Mobile health (mHealth) programs face a critical challenge in optimizing the timing of automated health information calls to beneficiaries. This challenge has been formulated as a collaborative multi-armed bandit problem, requiring online learning of a low-rank reward matrix. Existing solutions often rely on heuristic combinations of offline matrix completion and exploration strategies. In this work, we propose a principled Bayesian approach using Thompson Sampling for this collaborative bandit problem. Our method leverages prior information through efficient Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the low-rank matrix factors, enabling faster convergence. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world dataset from the world's largest maternal mHealth program. Our approach achieves a $16\%$ reduction in the number of calls compared to existing methods and a $47$\% reduction compared to the deployed random policy. This efficiency gain translates to a potential increase in program capacity by $0.5-1.4$ million beneficiaries, granting them access to vital ante-natal and post-natal care information. Furthermore, we observe a $7\%$ and $29\%$ improvement in beneficiary retention (an extremely hard metric to impact) compared to state-of-the-art and deployed baselines, respectively. Synthetic simulations further demonstrate the superiority of our approach, particularly in low-data regimes and in effectively utilizing prior information. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm in a special setting using Eluder dimension.

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arXiv2024

Bandits with Mean Bounds

We study a variant of the bandit problem where side information in the form of bounds on the mean of each arm is provided. We prove that these translate to tighter estimates of subgaussian factors and develop novel algorithms that exploit these estimates. In the linear setting, we present the Restricted-set OFUL (R-OFUL) algorithm that additionally uses the geometric properties of the problem to (potentially) restrict the set of arms being played and reduce exploration rates for suboptimal arms. In the stochastic case, we propose the non-optimistic Global Under-Explore (GLUE) algorithm which employs the inferred subgaussian estimates to adapt the rate of exploration for the arms. We analyze the regret of R-OFUL and GLUE, showing that our regret upper bounds are never worse than that of the standard OFUL and UCB algorithms respectively. Further, we also consider a practically motivated setting of learning from confounded logs where mean bounds appear naturally.

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arXiv2024

Bandits with Stochastic Experts: Constant Regret, Empirical Experts and Episodes

We study a variant of the contextual bandit problem where an agent can intervene through a set of stochastic expert policies. Given a fixed context, each expert samples actions from a fixed conditional distribution. The agent seeks to remain competitive with the 'best' among the given set of experts. We propose the Divergence-based Upper Confidence Bound (D-UCB) algorithm that uses importance sampling to share information across experts and provide horizon-independent constant regret bounds that only scale linearly in the number of experts. We also provide the Empirical D-UCB (ED-UCB) algorithm that can function with only approximate knowledge of expert distributions. Further, we investigate the episodic setting where the agent interacts with an environment that changes over episodes. Each episode can have different context and reward distributions resulting in the best expert changing across episodes. We show that by bootstrapping from $\mathcal{O}\left(N\log\left(NT^2\sqrt{E}\right)\right)$ samples, ED-UCB guarantees a regret that scales as $\mathcal{O}\left(E(N+1) + \frac{N\sqrt{E}}{T^2}\right)$ for $N$ experts over $E$ episodes, each of length $T$. We finally empirically validate our findings through simulations.

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arXiv2024

Combinatorial Multi-armed Bandits: Arm Selection via Group Testing

This paper considers the problem of combinatorial multi-armed bandits with semi-bandit feedback and a cardinality constraint on the super-arm size. Existing algorithms for solving this problem typically involve two key sub-routines: (1) a parameter estimation routine that sequentially estimates a set of base-arm parameters, and (2) a super-arm selection policy for selecting a subset of base arms deemed optimal based on these parameters. State-of-the-art algorithms assume access to an exact oracle for super-arm selection with unbounded computational power. At each instance, this oracle evaluates a list of score functions, the number of which grows as low as linearly and as high as exponentially with the number of arms. This can be prohibitive in the regime of a large number of arms. This paper introduces a novel realistic alternative to the perfect oracle. This algorithm uses a combination of group-testing for selecting the super arms and quantized Thompson sampling for parameter estimation. Under a general separability assumption on the reward function, the proposed algorithm reduces the complexity of the super-arm-selection oracle to be logarithmic in the number of base arms while achieving the same regret order as the state-of-the-art algorithms that use exact oracles. This translates to at least an exponential reduction in complexity compared to the oracle-based approaches.

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arXiv2024

Attribute Graphs Underlying Molecular Generative Models: Path to Learning with Limited Data

Training generative models that capture rich semantics of the data and interpreting the latent representations encoded by such models are very important problems in un-/self-supervised learning. In this work, we provide a simple algorithm that relies on perturbation experiments on latent codes of a pre-trained generative autoencoder to uncover an attribute graph that is implied by the generative model. We perform perturbation experiments to check for influence of a given latent variable on a subset of attributes. Given this, we show that one can fit an effective graphical model that models a structural equation model between latent codes taken as exogenous variables and attributes taken as observed variables. One interesting aspect is that a single latent variable controls multiple overlapping subsets of attributes unlike conventional approaches that try to impose full independence. Using a pre-trained generative autoencoder trained on a large dataset of small molecules, we demonstrate that the graphical model between various molecular attributes and latent codes learned by our algorithm can be used to predict a specific property for molecules which are drawn from a different distribution. We compare prediction models trained on various feature subsets chosen by simple baselines, as well as existing causal discovery and sparse learning/feature selection methods, with the ones in the derived Markov blanket from our method. Results show empirically that the predictor that relies on our Markov blanket attributes is robust to distribution shifts when transferred or fine-tuned with a few samples from the new distribution, especially when training data is limited.

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arXiv2024

Learning from Label Proportions: Bootstrapping Supervised Learners via Belief Propagation

Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) is a learning problem where only aggregate level labels are available for groups of instances, called bags, during training, and the aim is to get the best performance at the instance-level on the test data. This setting arises in domains like advertising and medicine due to privacy considerations. We propose a novel algorithmic framework for this problem that iteratively performs two main steps. For the first step (Pseudo Labeling) in every iteration, we define a Gibbs distribution over binary instance labels that incorporates a) covariate information through the constraint that instances with similar covariates should have similar labels and b) the bag level aggregated label. We then use Belief Propagation (BP) to marginalize the Gibbs distribution to obtain pseudo labels. In the second step (Embedding Refinement), we use the pseudo labels to provide supervision for a learner that yields a better embedding. Further, we iterate on the two steps again by using the second step's embeddings as new covariates for the next iteration. In the final iteration, a classifier is trained using the pseudo labels. Our algorithm displays strong gains against several SOTA baselines (up to 15%) for the LLP Binary Classification problem on various dataset types - tabular and Image. We achieve these improvements with minimal computational overhead above standard supervised learning due to Belief Propagation, for large bag sizes, even for a million samples.

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arXiv2024

A resource-constrained stochastic scheduling algorithm for homeless street outreach and gleaning edible food

We developed a common algorithmic solution addressing the problem of resource-constrained outreach encountered by social change organizations with different missions and operations: Breaking Ground -- an organization that helps individuals experiencing homelessness in New York transition to permanent housing and Leket -- the national food bank of Israel that rescues food from farms and elsewhere to feed the hungry. Specifically, we developed an estimation and optimization approach for partially-observed episodic restless bandits under $k$-step transitions. The results show that our Thompson sampling with Markov chain recovery (via Stein variational gradient descent) algorithm significantly outperforms baselines for the problems of both organizations. We carried out this work in a prospective manner with the express goal of devising a flexible-enough but also useful-enough solution that can help overcome a lack of sustainable impact in data science for social good.

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arXiv2024

General Identifiability and Achievability for Causal Representation Learning

This paper focuses on causal representation learning (CRL) under a general nonparametric latent causal model and a general transformation model that maps the latent data to the observational data. It establishes identifiability and achievability results using two hard uncoupled interventions per node in the latent causal graph. Notably, one does not know which pair of intervention environments have the same node intervened (hence, uncoupled). For identifiability, the paper establishes that perfect recovery of the latent causal model and variables is guaranteed under uncoupled interventions. For achievability, an algorithm is designed that uses observational and interventional data and recovers the latent causal model and variables with provable guarantees. This algorithm leverages score variations across different environments to estimate the inverse of the transformer and, subsequently, the latent variables. The analysis, additionally, recovers the identifiability result for two hard coupled interventions, that is when metadata about the pair of environments that have the same node intervened is known. This paper also shows that when observational data is available, additional faithfulness assumptions that are adopted by the existing literature are unnecessary.

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arXiv2024

Fairness under Covariate Shift: Improving Fairness-Accuracy tradeoff with few Unlabeled Test Samples

Covariate shift in the test data is a common practical phenomena that can significantly downgrade both the accuracy and the fairness performance of the model. Ensuring fairness across different sensitive groups under covariate shift is of paramount importance due to societal implications like criminal justice. We operate in the unsupervised regime where only a small set of unlabeled test samples along with a labeled training set is available. Towards improving fairness under this highly challenging yet realistic scenario, we make three contributions. First is a novel composite weighted entropy based objective for prediction accuracy which is optimized along with a representation matching loss for fairness. We experimentally verify that optimizing with our loss formulation outperforms a number of state-of-the-art baselines in the pareto sense with respect to the fairness-accuracy tradeoff on several standard datasets. Our second contribution is a new setting we term Asymmetric Covariate Shift that, to the best of our knowledge, has not been studied before. Asymmetric covariate shift occurs when distribution of covariates of one group shifts significantly compared to the other groups and this happens when a dominant group is over-represented. While this setting is extremely challenging for current baselines, We show that our proposed method significantly outperforms them. Our third contribution is theoretical, where we show that our weighted entropy term along with prediction loss on the training set approximates test loss under covariate shift. Empirically and through formal sample complexity bounds, we show that this approximation to the unseen test loss does not depend on importance sampling variance which affects many other baselines.

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arXiv2024

Selective classification using a robust meta-learning approach

Predictive uncertainty-a model's self awareness regarding its accuracy on an input-is key for both building robust models via training interventions and for test-time applications such as selective classification. We propose a novel instance-conditioned reweighting approach that captures predictive uncertainty using an auxiliary network and unifies these train- and test-time applications. The auxiliary network is trained using a meta-objective in a bilevel optimization framework. A key contribution of our proposal is the meta-objective of minimizing the dropout variance, an approximation of Bayesian Predictive uncertainty. We show in controlled experiments that we effectively capture the diverse specific notions of uncertainty through this meta-objective, while previous approaches only capture certain aspects. These results translate to significant gains in real-world settings-selective classification, label noise, domain adaptation, calibration-and across datasets-Imagenet, Cifar100, diabetic retinopathy, Camelyon, WILDs, Imagenet-C,-A,-R, Clothing1M, etc. For Diabetic Retinopathy, we see upto 3.4%/3.3% accuracy and AUC gains over SOTA in selective classification. We also improve upon large-scale pretrained models such as PLEX.

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arXiv2023

Identifiability Guarantees for Causal Disentanglement from Soft Interventions

Causal disentanglement aims to uncover a representation of data using latent variables that are interrelated through a causal model. Such a representation is identifiable if the latent model that explains the data is unique. In this paper, we focus on the scenario where unpaired observational and interventional data are available, with each intervention changing the mechanism of a latent variable. When the causal variables are fully observed, statistically consistent algorithms have been developed to identify the causal model under faithfulness assumptions. We here show that identifiability can still be achieved with unobserved causal variables, given a generalized notion of faithfulness. Our results guarantee that we can recover the latent causal model up to an equivalence class and predict the effect of unseen combinations of interventions, in the limit of infinite data. We implement our causal disentanglement framework by developing an autoencoding variational Bayes algorithm and apply it to the problem of predicting combinatorial perturbation effects in genomics.

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arXiv2023

Blocked Collaborative Bandits: Online Collaborative Filtering with Per-Item Budget Constraints

We consider the problem of \emph{blocked} collaborative bandits where there are multiple users, each with an associated multi-armed bandit problem. These users are grouped into \emph{latent} clusters such that the mean reward vectors of users within the same cluster are identical. Our goal is to design algorithms that maximize the cumulative reward accrued by all the users over time, under the \emph{constraint} that no arm of a user is pulled more than $\mathsf{B}$ times. This problem has been originally considered by \cite{Bresler:2014}, and designing regret-optimal algorithms for it has since remained an open problem. In this work, we propose an algorithm called \texttt{B-LATTICE} (Blocked Latent bAndiTs via maTrIx ComplEtion) that collaborates across users, while simultaneously satisfying the budget constraints, to maximize their cumulative rewards. Theoretically, under certain reasonable assumptions on the latent structure, with $\mathsf{M}$ users, $\mathsf{N}$ arms, $\mathsf{T}$ rounds per user, and $\mathsf{C}=O(1)$ latent clusters, \texttt{B-LATTICE} achieves a per-user regret of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{\mathsf{T}(1 + \mathsf{N}\mathsf{M}^{-1})}$ under a budget constraint of $\mathsf{B}=Θ(\log \mathsf{T})$. These are the first sub-linear regret bounds for this problem, and match the minimax regret bounds when $\mathsf{B}=\mathsf{T}$. Empirically, we demonstrate that our algorithm has superior performance over baselines even when $\mathsf{B}=1$. \texttt{B-LATTICE} runs in phases where in each phase it clusters users into groups and collaborates across users within a group to quickly learn their reward models.

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arXiv2023

A Lyapunov Theory for Finite-Sample Guarantees of Asynchronous Q-Learning and TD-Learning Variants

This paper develops an unified framework to study finite-sample convergence guarantees of a large class of value-based asynchronous reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. We do this by first reformulating the RL algorithms as \textit{Markovian Stochastic Approximation} (SA) algorithms to solve fixed-point equations. We then develop a Lyapunov analysis and derive mean-square error bounds on the convergence of the Markovian SA. Based on this result, we establish finite-sample mean-square convergence bounds for asynchronous RL algorithms such as $Q$-learning, $n$-step TD, TD$(λ)$, and off-policy TD algorithms including V-trace. As a by-product, by analyzing the convergence bounds of $n$-step TD and TD$(λ)$, we provide theoretical insights into the bias-variance trade-off, i.e., efficiency of bootstrapping in RL. This was first posed as an open problem in (Sutton, 1999).

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arXiv2023

Optimal Algorithms for Latent Bandits with Cluster Structure

We consider the problem of latent bandits with cluster structure where there are multiple users, each with an associated multi-armed bandit problem. These users are grouped into \emph{latent} clusters such that the mean reward vectors of users within the same cluster are identical. At each round, a user, selected uniformly at random, pulls an arm and observes a corresponding noisy reward. The goal of the users is to maximize their cumulative rewards. This problem is central to practical recommendation systems and has received wide attention of late \cite{gentile2014online, maillard2014latent}. Now, if each user acts independently, then they would have to explore each arm independently and a regret of $Ω(\sqrt{\mathsf{MNT}})$ is unavoidable, where $\mathsf{M}, \mathsf{N}$ are the number of arms and users, respectively. Instead, we propose LATTICE (Latent bAndiTs via maTrIx ComplEtion) which allows exploitation of the latent cluster structure to provide the minimax optimal regret of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{(\mathsf{M}+\mathsf{N})\mathsf{T}})$, when the number of clusters is $\widetilde{O}(1)$. This is the first algorithm to guarantee such strong regret bound. LATTICE is based on a careful exploitation of arm information within a cluster while simultaneously clustering users. Furthermore, it is computationally efficient and requires only $O(\log{\mathsf{T}})$ calls to an offline matrix completion oracle across all $\mathsf{T}$ rounds.

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arXiv2023

Front-door Adjustment Beyond Markov Equivalence with Limited Graph Knowledge

Causal effect estimation from data typically requires assumptions about the cause-effect relations either explicitly in the form of a causal graph structure within the Pearlian framework, or implicitly in terms of (conditional) independence statements between counterfactual variables within the potential outcomes framework. When the treatment variable and the outcome variable are confounded, front-door adjustment is an important special case where, given the graph, causal effect of the treatment on the target can be estimated using post-treatment variables. However, the exact formula for front-door adjustment depends on the structure of the graph, which is difficult to learn in practice. In this work, we provide testable conditional independence statements to compute the causal effect using front-door-like adjustment without knowing the graph under limited structural side information. We show that our method is applicable in scenarios where knowing the Markov equivalence class is not sufficient for causal effect estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a class of random graphs as well as real causal fairness benchmarks.

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