arXiv subjects

Katerina Papagiannouli

Publications and source records attributed to Katerina Papagiannouli.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

High-Dimensional Change Point Detection via Graph Spanning Ratio

Inspired by graph-based methodologies, we introduce a novel graph-spanning algorithm designed to identify changes in both offline and online data across low to high dimensions. This versatile approach is applicable to Euclidean and graph-structured data with unknown distributions, while maintaining control over error probabilities. Theoretically, we demonstrate that the algorithm achieves high detection power when the magnitude of the change surpasses the lower bound of the minimax separation rate, which scales on the order of $\sqrt{nd}$. Our method outperforms other techniques in terms of accuracy for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian data. Notably, it maintains strong detection power even with small observation windows, making it particularly effective for online environments where timely and precise change detection is critical.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Robust Predictive Uncertainty and Double Descent in Contaminated Bayesian Random Features

We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets. Starting from the classical equivalence between ridge-regularized RF training and Bayesian inference with Gaussian priors and likelihoods, we replace the single prior and likelihood with $ε$- and $η$-contaminated credal sets, respectively, and perform inference using pessimistic generalized Bayesian updating. We derive explicit and tractable bounds for the resulting lower and upper posterior predictive densities. These bounds show that, when contamination is moderate, prior and likelihood ambiguity effectively acts as a direct contamination of the posterior predictive distribution, yielding uncertainty envelopes around the classical Gaussian predictive. We introduce an Imprecise Highest Density Region (IHDR) for robust predictive uncertainty quantification and show that it admits an efficient approximation via an adjusted Gaussian credible interval. We further obtain predictive variance bounds (under a mild truncation approximation for the upper bound) and prove that they preserve the leading-order proportional-growth asymptotics known for RF models. Together, these results establish a robustness theory for Bayesian random features: predictive uncertainty remains computationally tractable, inherits the classical double-descent phase structure, and is improved by explicit worst-case guarantees under bounded prior and likelihood misspecification.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Frequentist Coverage of Bayes Posteriors in Nonlinear Inverse Problems with Gaussian Priors

We study asymptotic frequentist coverage and approximately Gaussian properties of Bayes posterior credible sets in nonlinear inverse problems when a Gaussian prior is placed on the parameter of the PDE. The aim is to ensure valid frequentist coverage of Bayes credible intervals when estimating continuous linear functionals of the parameter. Our results show that Bayes credible intervals have conservative coverage under certain smoothness assumptions on the parameter and a compatibility condition between the likelihood and the prior, regardless of whether an efficient limit exists or Bernstein von-Mises (BvM) theorem holds. In the latter case, our results yield a corollary with more relaxed sufficient conditions than previous works. The theory is illustrated with a PDE that arises in predicting the transport of radioactive waste from underground repositories and optimizing oil recovery from subsurface fields: an elliptic inverse problem for Darcy flow. In this case, a near-$1/\sqrt{N}$ contraction rate and conservative coverage results are obtained for linear functionals that were shown not to be estimable efficiently.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Beyond NNGP: Large Deviations and Feature Learning in Bayesian Neural Networks

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate functions-on predictors, providing an emerging notion of complexity and feature learning directly at the functional level. We show that the posterior output rate function is obtained by a joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels, in contrast with fixed-kernel (NNGP) theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the resulting predictions accurately describe finite-width behavior for moderately sized networks, capturing non-Gaussian tails, posterior deformation, and data-dependent kernel selection effects.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Functional Large Deviations for Wide Deep Neural Networks with Gaussian Initialization and Lipschitz Activations

We establish a functional large deviation principle for fully connected multi-layer perceptrons with i.i.d. Gaussian weights (LeCun initialization) and general Lipschitz activation functions, including therefore the popular case of ReLU. The large deviation principle holds for the entire network output process on any compact input set. The proof combines exponential tightness for recursively defined processes, finite-dimensional large deviations, and the Dawson-Gärtner theorem, extending existing results beyond finite input sets and less general activations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Structured Matching via Cost-Regularized Unbalanced Optimal Transport

Unbalanced optimal transport (UOT) provides a flexible way to match or compare nonnegative finite Radon measures. However, UOT requires a predefined ground transport cost, which may misrepresent the data's underlying geometry. Choosing such a cost is particularly challenging when datasets live in heterogeneous spaces, often motivating practitioners to adopt Gromov-Wasserstein formulations. To address this challenge, we introduce cost-regularized unbalanced optimal transport (CR-UOT), a framework that allows the ground cost to vary while allowing mass creation and removal. We show that CR-UOT incorporates unbalanced Gromov-Wasserstein type problems through families of inner-product costs parameterized by linear transformations, enabling the matching of measures or point clouds across Euclidean spaces. We develop algorithms for such CR-UOT problems using entropic regularization and demonstrate that this approach improves the alignment of heterogeneous single-cell omics profiles, especially when many cells lack direct matches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Critical Points and Convergence Analysis of Generative Deep Linear Networks Trained with Bures-Wasserstein Loss

We consider a deep matrix factorization model of covariance matrices trained with the Bures-Wasserstein distance. While recent works have made advances in the study of the optimization problem for overparametrized low-rank matrix approximation, much emphasis has been placed on discriminative settings and the square loss. In contrast, our model considers another type of loss and connects with the generative setting. We characterize the critical points and minimizers of the Bures-Wasserstein distance over the space of rank-bounded matrices. The Hessian of this loss at low-rank matrices can theoretically blow up, which creates challenges to analyze convergence of gradient optimization methods. We establish convergence results for gradient flow using a smooth perturbative version of the loss as well as convergence results for finite step size gradient descent under certain assumptions on the initial weights.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

High dimensional change-point detection: a complete graph approach

The aim of online change-point detection is for a accurate, timely discovery of structural breaks. As data dimension outgrows the number of data in observation, online detection becomes challenging. Existing methods typically test only the change of mean, which omit the practical aspect of change of variance. We propose a complete graph-based, change-point detection algorithm to detect change of mean and variance from low to high-dimensional online data with a variable scanning window. Inspired by complete graph structure, we introduce graph-spanning ratios to map high-dimensional data into metrics, and then test statistically if a change of mean or change of variance occurs. Theoretical study shows that our approach has the desirable pivotal property and is powerful with prescribed error probabilities. We demonstrate that this framework outperforms other methods in terms of detection power. Our approach has high detection power with small and multiple scanning window, which allows timely detection of change-point in the online setting. Finally, we applied the method to financial data to detect change-points in S&P 500 stocks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

A Lepskiĭ-type stopping rule for the covariance estimation of multi-dimensional Lévy processes

We suppose that a Lévy process is observed at discrete time points. Starting from an asymptotically minimax family of estimators for the continuous part of the Lévy Khinchine characteristics, i.e., the covariance, we derive a data-driven parameter choice for the frequency of estimating the covariance. We investigate a Lepskiĭ-type stopping rule for the adaptive procedure. Consequently, we use a balancing principle for the best possible data-driven parameter. The adaptive estimator achieves almost the optimal rate. Numerical experiments with the proposed selection rule are also presented.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Minimax rates for the covariance estimation of multi-dimensional Lévy processes with high-frequency data

This article studies nonparametric methods to estimate the co-integrated volatility for multi-dimensional Lévy processes with high frequency data. We construct a spectral estimator for the co-integrated volatility and prove minimax rates for an appropriate bounded nonparametric class of semimartingales. Given $ n $ observations of increments over intervals of length $1/n$, the rates of convergence are $1 / \sqrt{n} $ if $ r \leq 1 $ and $ (n\log n)^{(r-2)/2} $ if $ r>1 $, which are optimal in a minimax sense. We bound the co-jump index activity from below with the harmonic mean. Finally, we assess the efficiency of our estimator by comparing it with estimators in the existing literature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Online Graph-Based Change-Point Detection for High Dimensional Data

Online change-point detection (OCPD) is important for application in various areas such as finance, biology, and the Internet of Things (IoT). However, OCPD faces major challenges due to high-dimensionality, and it is still rarely studied in literature. In this paper, we propose a novel, online, graph-based, change-point detection algorithm to detect change of distribution in low- to high-dimensional data. We introduce a similarity measure, which is derived from the graph-spanning ratio, to test statistically if a change occurs. Through numerical study using artificial online datasets, our data-driven approach demonstrates high detection power for high-dimensional data, while the false alarm rate (type I error) is controlled at a nominal significant level. In particular, our graph-spanning approach has desirable power with small and multiple scanning window, which allows timely detection of change-point in the online setting.

stat.ML↗