arXiv subjects

Katherine Garcia-Sage

Publications and source records attributed to Katherine Garcia-Sage.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Panchromatic Spectra of Nearby Low-mass and Sun-like Stars with Directly Imageable Habitable Zones

Characterizing the high-energy radiation environments of stars plays a critical role in determining which systems' planets are capable of retaining atmospheres and sustaining habitable conditions. X-ray through ultraviolet (UV) radiation drives atmospheric photochemistry, heating, and escape, making accurate characterization of stellar high-energy emission essential for both interpreting future exoplanet observations and identifying the most promising targets for life detection. We construct panchromatic spectral energy distributions (SEDs) spanning the X-ray through radio for 12 nearby low-mass and Sun-like stars with directly imageable habitable zones that are prioritized targets for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) and Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs). These SEDs are generated using forward stellar atmosphere models guided and constrained by available archival X-ray and UV observations. We find that many stars in this sample exhibit elevated high-energy radiation environments relative to the modern Sun, with habitable zone X-ray and extreme UV (XUV) fluxes frequently exceeding solar values by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The elevated emission likely reflects a combination of sample selection effects, differences in stellar age and rotation, and intrinsic magnetic variability, with multi-epoch observations demonstrating that variability alone can significantly alter inferred radiation environments. These results highlight high-energy radiation as an important discriminator in identifying the most promising habitable planet hosts and demonstrate the need for expanded X-ray and UV observations to complete the stellar characterization necessary for HWO target prioritization.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

X-ray Emission and Stellar Ages of Sun-Like Stars

We present an analysis of XMM-Newton and Chandra observations of 85 nearby main-sequence FGK stars with age estimates ranging from 0.2-12 Gyr. We measure quiescent 0.3-10 keV luminosities, variability metrics, and multi-temperature thermal plasma spectral parameters. Quiescent spectra are typically described by three characteristic plasma components ($kT\approx0.1$, 0.4, 0.8 keV); the fraction of flux from $T\ge7$ MK rises with X-ray surface flux, reaching $\sim$50% for $F_X\gtrsim10^6$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. We derive relations between emission measure-weighted coronal temperature and both $L_X$ and $F_X$, enabling temperature-informed count-rate conversions for faint sources. We quantify how bandpass conversions (ROSAT 0.1-2.4 keV vs. XMM-Newton 0.3-10 keV) depend on temperature, and show that inferred ROSAT-band $L_X$ broadly follows the canonical $t^{-1.5}$ decay, while the harder band exhibits increased scatter at $>$4 Gyr. Several stars show excess activity suggestive of age errors, inclination effects, or unresolved companions. Some of these "outlier" stars are potential direct imaging targets for the Habitable Worlds Observatory, and detailed characterization of these stars is needed to inform their likely influence on the atmospheric evolution of orbiting planets.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Atmospheric Escape Rates from Mars - If it Orbited an Old M-Dwarf Star

Atmospheric escape is an important process that influences the evolution of planetary atmospheres. A variety of physical mechanisms can contribute to escape from an atmosphere, including thermal escape, ion escape, photochemical escape, and sputtering. Here we estimate escape rates via each of these processes for a hypothetical Mars-like exoplanet orbiting Barnard's star (an old, inactive M dwarf star). We place the planet at an orbital distance that receives the same total stellar flux as it does in our solar system. We use the measured stellar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum and assumptions on the star's magnetic field to determine both the high-energy radiation and the stellar wind environment around the planet. This information is used to model the response of the planet's thermosphere, exosphere and magnetosphere using a variety of models that have been validated against solar system observations. We find overall escape rates that are dominated by thermal processes and elevated by 2-5 orders of magnitude relative to present-day Mars, suggesting that a Mars-like planet orbiting Barnard's star would not retain a significant atmosphere for more than 10's of millions of years. Recently reported planets around Barnard's star should also not have retained significant atmospheres. By extension, Mars-like planets orbiting any M dwarf near the 'Habitable Zone' should not retain atmospheres for extended periods of time.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Tracking Reentries of Starlink Satellites During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 25

The exponential increase of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites in the past 5 years has brought into intense focus the need for reliable monitoring and reentry prediction to safeguard from space collisions and ground debris impacts. However, LEO satellites fly within the upper atmosphere region that exerts significant drag forces to their orbits, reducing their lifetimes, and increasing collision risks during dynamic events, like geomagnetic storms. Such conditions can become more severe during geomagnetic storms, particularly during extreme events. In this work, we use two-line element (TLE) satellite tracking data to investigate geomagnetic activity effects on the reentries of 523 Starlink satellites from 2020 to 2024. This period coincides with the rising phase of solar cycle 25, which has shown itself to be more intense than the previous solar cycle. We derive satellite altitudes and velocities from TLE files and perform a superposed epoch analysis, the first with hundreds of similar satellites. Even with limitedly accurate TLE data, our results indisputably show that satellites reenter faster with higher geomagnetic activity. This is explained by the fastest orbital decay rates (in km/day) of the satellites caused by increased drag forces. We also find that prediction errors, defined as the difference between the epochs of actual reentries and predicted reentries at reference altitudes, increase with geomagnetic activity. As a result, we clearly show that the intense solar activity of the current solar cycle has already had significant impacts on Starlink reentries. This is a very exciting time in satellite orbital drag research, since the number of satellites in LEO and solar activity are the highest ever observed in human history.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

X-ray Emission of Nearby Low-mass and Sun-like Stars with Directly Imageable Habitable Zones

Stellar X-ray and UV radiation can significantly affect the survival, composition, and long-term evolution of the atmospheres of planets in or near their host star's habitable zone (HZ). Especially interesting are planetary systems in the solar neighborhood that may host temperate and potentially habitable surface conditions, which may be analyzed by future ground and space-based direct-imaging surveys for signatures of habitability and life. To advance our understanding of the radiation environment in these systems, we leverage $\sim$3 Msec of XMM-Newton and Chandra observations in order to measure three fundamental stellar properties at X-ray energies for 57 nearby FGKM stellar systems: the shape of the stellar X-ray spectrum, the luminosity, and the timescales over which the stars vary (e.g., due to flares). These systems possess HZs that will be directly imageable to next-generation telescopes such as the Habitable Worlds Observatory and ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs). We identify 29 stellar systems with $L_X/L_{\rm bol}$ ratios similar to (or less than) that of the Sun; any potential planets in the habitable zones of these stars therefore reside in present day X-ray radiation environments similar to (or less hostile than) modern Earth, though a broader set of these targets could host habitable planets. An additional 19 stellar systems have been observed with the Swift X-ray Telescope; in total, only $\sim$30% of potential direct imaging target stars has been observed with XMM-Newton, Chandra, or Swift. The data products from this work (X-ray light curves and spectra) are available via a public Zenodo repository (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.11490574).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Understanding and Modeling the Dynamics of Storm-time Atmospheric Neutral Density using Random Forests

Atmospheric neutral density is a crucial component to accurately predict and track the motion of satellites. During periods of elevated solar and geomagnetic activity atmospheric neutral density becomes highly variable and dynamic. This variability and enhanced dynamics make it difficult to accurately model neutral density leading to increased errors which propagate from neutral density models through to orbit propagation models. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of neutral density during geomagnetic storms. We use a combination of solar and geomagnetic variables to develop three Random Forest machine learning models of neutral density. These models are based on (1) slow solar indices, (2) high cadence solar irradiance, and (3) combined high-cadence solar irradiance and geomagnetic indices. Each model is validated using an out-of-sample dataset using analysis of residuals and typical metrics. During quiet-times, all three models perform well; however, during geomagnetic storms, the combined high cadence solar irradiance/geomagnetic model performs significantly better than the models based solely on solar activity. The combined model capturing an additional 10\% in the variability of density and having an error up to six times smaller during geomagnetic storms then the solar models. Overall, this work demonstrates the importance of including geomagnetic activity in the modeling of atmospheric density and serves as a proof of concept for using machine learning algorithms to model, and in the future forecast atmospheric density for operational use.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

The case for studying other planetary magnetospheres and atmospheres in Heliophysics

Heliophysics is the field that "studies the nature of the Sun, and how it influences the very nature of space - and, in turn, the atmospheres of planetary bodies and the technology that exists there." However, NASA's Heliophysics Division tends to limit study of planetary magnetospheres and atmospheres to only those of Earth. This leaves exploration and understanding of space plasma physics at other worlds to the purview of the Planetary Science and Astrophysics Divisions. This is detrimental to the study of space plasma physics in general since, although some cross-divisional funding opportunities do exist, vital elements of space plasma physics can be best addressed by extending the expertise of Heliophysics scientists to other stellar and planetary magnetospheres. However, the diverse worlds within the solar system provide crucial environmental conditions that are not replicated at Earth but can provide deep insight into fundamental space plasma physics processes. Studying planetary systems with Heliophysics objectives, comprehensive instrumentation, and new grant opportunities for analysis and modeling would enable a novel understanding of fundamental and universal processes of space plasma physics. As such, the Heliophysics community should be prepared to consider, prioritize, and fund dedicated Heliophysics efforts to planetary targets to specifically study space physics and aeronomy objectives.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Absence of extended atmospheres in low-mass star radius-gap planets GJ 9827 b, GJ 9827 d and TOI-1235 b

\textit{Kepler} showed a paucity of planets with radii of 1.5 - 2 $\mathrm R_{\oplus}$ around solar mass stars but this radius-gap has not been well studied for low-mass star planets. Energy-driven escape models like photoevaporation and core-powered mass-loss predict opposing transition regimes between rocky and non-rocky planets when compared to models depicting planets forming in gas-poor environments. Here we present transit observations of three super-Earth sized planets in the radius-gap around low-mass stars using high-dispersion InfraRed Doppler (IRD) spectrograph on the Subaru 8.2m telescope. The planets GJ 9827 b and d orbit around a K6V star and TOI-1235 b orbits a M0.5 star. We limit any planet-related absorption in the 1083.3 nm lines of triplet He I by placing an upper-limit on the equivalent width of 14.71 mÅ, 18.39 mÅ, and 1.44 mÅ, for GJ 9827 b (99% confidence), GJ 9827 d (99% confidence) and TOI-1235 b (95% confidence) respectively. Using a Parker wind model, we cap the mass-loss at $>$0.25 $\mathrm M_{\oplus}$ Gyr$^{-1}$ and $>$0.2 $\mathrm M_{\oplus}$ Gyr$^{-1}$ for GJ 9827 b and d, respectively (99% confidence), and $>$0.05 $\mathrm M_{\oplus}$ Gyr$^{-1}$ for TOI-1235 b (95\% confidence) for a representative wind temperature of 5000 K. Our observed results for the three planets are more consistent with the predictions from photoevaporation and/or core-powered mass-loss models than the gas-poor formation models. However, more planets in the radius-gap regime around the low-mass stars are needed to robustly predict the atmospheric evolution in planets around low-mass stars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Atmospheric Escape Processes and Planetary Atmospheric Evolution

The habitability of the surface of any planet is determined by a complex evolution of its interior, surface, and atmosphere. The electromagnetic and particle radiation of stars drive thermal, chemical and physical alteration of planetary atmospheres, including escape. Many known extrasolar planets experience vastly different stellar environments than those in our Solar system: it is crucial to understand the broad range of processes that lead to atmospheric escape and evolution under a wide range of conditions if we are to assess the habitability of worlds around other stars. One problem encountered between the planetary and the astrophysics communities is a lack of common language for describing escape processes. Each community has customary approximations that may be questioned by the other, such as the hypothesis of H-dominated thermosphere for astrophysicists, or the Sun-like nature of the stars for planetary scientists. Since exoplanets are becoming one of the main targets for the detection of life, a common set of definitions and hypotheses are required. We review the different escape mechanisms proposed for the evolution of planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres. We propose a common definition for the different escape mechanisms, and we show the important parameters to take into account when evaluating the escape at a planet in time. We show that the paradigm of the magnetic field as an atmospheric shield should be changed and that recent work on the history of Xenon in Earth's atmosphere gives an elegant explanation to its enrichment in heavier isotopes: the so-called Xenon paradox.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Application Usability Levels: A Framework for Tracking Project Product Progress

The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework and publicizing AULs to help the community quantify the progress of successful applications, metrics, and validation efforts. This framework will also aid the scientific community by supplying the type of information needed to build off of previously published work and publicizing the applications and requirements needed by the user communities. In this paper, we define the AUL framework, outline the milestones required for progression to higher AULs, and provide example projects utilizing the AUL framework. This work has been completed as part of the activities of the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

High-Energy Photon and Particle Effects onExoplanet Atmospheres and Habitability

It is now recognized that energetic stellar photon and particle radiation evaporates and erodes planetary atmospheres and controls upper atmospheric chemistry. Key exoplanet host stars will be too faint at X-ray wavelengths for accurate characterization using existing generation and future slated X-ray telescopes. Observation of stellar coronal mass ejections and winds are also beyond current instrumentation. In line with theCommittee on an Exoplanet Science Strategy recognition that holistic observational approaches are needed, we point out here that a full understanding of exoplanet atmospheres, their evolution and determination of habitability requires a powerful high-resolution X-ray imaging and spectroscopic observatory. This is the only capability that can: (1) characterize by proxy the crucial, difficult to observe, EUV stellar flux, its history and its variations for planet hosting stars; (2) observe the stellar wind; (3) detect the subtle Doppler signatures of coronal mass ejections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Solar System Ice Giants: Exoplanets in our Backyard

Future remote sensing of exoplanets will be enhanced by a thorough investigation of our solar system Ice Giants (Neptune-size planets). What can the configuration of the magnetic field tell us (remotely) about the interior, and what implications does that field have for the structure of the magnetosphere; energy input into the atmosphere, and surface geophysics (for example surface weathering of satellites that might harbour sub-surface oceans). How can monitoring of auroral emission help inform future remote observations of emission from exoplanets? Our Solar System provides the only laboratory in which we can perform in-situ experiments to understand exoplanet formation, dynamos, systems and magnetospheres.

astro-ph.EP↗