arXiv subjects

Kathryn Lawson

Publications and source records attributed to Kathryn Lawson.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Hourly U.S.-wide flood simulation beyond the limits of traditional and data-driven models

As increasingly-damaging floods can strike within hours of a storm and in ungauged reaches, hourly network-wide simulation has become critical societal infrastructure. Here we demonstrate a multi-timescale physics-embedded learning model which outperforms the United States' operational system and surpasses AI-based systems at flood peaks. Covering more than 800,000 river reaches of the conterminous U.S., the model elevates median hourly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at 2,831 gauges to 0.683 from 0.461 for the operational National Water Model v3.0, and narrows flood-peak timing errors from 7-8 hours to 4.5-6 hours. dHBV2.0MTS-MC captures 33% more >=50-year floods than NWM3.0 and 159% more than an operational LSTM baseline. Against recent AI models, overall hourly skill is comparable while rare-flood accuracy is distinctly higher, with relative peak-magnitude error reduced by 34% for >=100-year floods. It combines long-term hydrologic context, short-term shocks, and infiltration excess to resolve extraordinary hourly peaks not visible on a daily plot. Process-model parameters and hourly discharge are produced for every reach, seamlessly covering the continent at 7.2 km2 median resolution. This candidate for the next-generation National Water Model sets a new operational accuracy level for national-scale flood prediction.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

Sensitivity-Constrained Neural Operators for Data-Efficient Forward and Inverse Modeling of Partial Differential Equation Systems

Neural operators provide fast surrogates for partial differential equation (PDE) solvers, but their reliability can degrade for high-dimensional spatial inputs and inverse or repeated inference. State-only training constrains solution values but not the learned input--output response. We study sensitivity-constrained neural operators (SC-NOs), which augment standard training with sampled solver-derived Jacobian supervision. Selected sensitivities from differentiable solvers or discrete adjoints are matched during training, allowing response information to be amortized across minibatches without imposing the full Jacobian at every update. We evaluate SC-NO on advection--diffusion and RANS--Spalart--Allmaras benchmarks, input-dimensionality scaling tests, long-horizon autoregressive rollout, and a shallow-water Tohoku tsunami source-inversion case. Sensitivity supervision improves forward prediction and yields larger gains in gradient-based inverse reconstruction of distributed fields. Scaling experiments show an improved accuracy--cost tradeoff for high-dimensional gridded inputs, while ablations indicate that state values and Jacobian information provide complementary supervision. In the tsunami case, SC-FNO reconstructs gridded seafloor deformation from sparse early gauge observations and forecasts subsequent wave propagation in a near-real-time proof-of-concept workflow. These results support sampled sensitivity supervision as a practical way to improve neural PDE surrogates when forward accuracy, inverse stability, robustness, and computational cost must be considered together.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Differentiable Framework for Global Circulation Model Precipitation Bias Correction

Systematic biases in General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs limit their direct applicability in regional planning, making bias correction a technically demanding but necessary step for both short-term and long-term impact assessment. Correcting precipitation is particularly challenging due to its non-Gaussian distribution, intermittent nature, and heavy-tailed extremes. However, traditional statistical bias-correction methods have limited ability to learn systematic patterns from large datasets or generalize to new locations. While machine learning (ML) provides greater flexibility, it can produce unpredictable and difficult-to-interpret results, limiting generalization across GCMs and locations. In this study, we propose a differentiable bias-adjustment framework called dCLIMBA, that learns a spatiotemporally adaptive parametric bias-adjustment procedure, rather than corrected precipitation directly, between historical CMIP6 model outputs and a gridded observation-based dataset, Livneh. Results demonstrate that the proposed method corrects the magnitude and distribution of extreme precipitation with particularly strong performance in the upper tail. The quantile distribution of precipitation was well reproduced across diverse U.S. cities, and spatial patterns were comparable to those from the widely used LOCA2 statistical downscaling product. In addition, the framework showed partial future trend preservation and promising attenuation of marginal biases in unseen regions. This work presents a modular and efficient bias-correction approach. The differentiable approach provides an easy-to-use option for connecting atmospheric-model outputs to on-the-ground impacts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Distinct hydrologic response patterns and trends worldwide revealed by physics-embedded learning

To track rapid changes within our water sector, Global Water Models (GWMs) need to realistically represent hydrologic systems' response patterns - such as baseflow fraction - but are hindered by their limited ability to learn from data. Here we introduce a high-resolution physics-embedded big-data-trained model as a breakthrough in reliably capturing characteristic hydrologic response patterns ('signatures') and their shifts. By realistically representing the long-term water balance, the model revealed widespread shifts - up to ~20% over 20 years - in fundamental green-blue-water partitioning and baseflow ratios worldwide. Shifts in these response patterns, previously considered static, contributed to increasing flood risks in northern mid-latitudes, heightening water supply stresses in southern subtropical regions, and declining freshwater inputs to many European estuaries, all with ecological implications. With more accurate simulations at monthly and daily scales than current operational systems, this next-generation model resolves large, nonlinear seasonal runoff responses to rainfall ('elasticity') and streamflow flashiness in semi-arid and arid regions. These metrics highlight regions with management challenges due to large water supply variability and high climate sensitivity, but also provide tools to forecast seasonal water availability. This capability newly enables global-scale models to deliver reliable and locally relevant insights for water management.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Update hydrological states or meteorological forcings? Comparing data assimilation methods for differentiable hydrologic models

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations as inputs (called "data integration") or variational DA has shown success in improving forecasts. However, it is unclear which methods are performant or optimal for physics-informed machine learning ("differentiable") models, which represent only a small amount of physically-meaningful states while using deep networks to supply parameters or missing processes. Here we developed variational DA methods for differentiable models, including optimizing adjusters for just precipitation data, just model internal hydrological states, or both. Our results demonstrated that differentiable streamflow models using the CAMELS dataset can benefit strongly and equivalently from variational DA as LSTM, with one-day lead time median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) elevated from 0.75 to 0.82. The resulting forecast matched or outperformed LSTM with DA in the eastern, northwestern, and central Great Plains regions of the conterminous United States. Both precipitation and state adjusters were needed to achieve these results, with the latter being substantially more effective on its own, and the former adding moderate benefits for high flows. Our DA framework does not need systematic training data and could serve as a practical DA scheme for whole river networks.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2023

Differentiable modeling to unify machine learning and physical models and advance Geosciences

Process-Based Modeling (PBM) and Machine Learning (ML) are often perceived as distinct paradigms in the geosciences. Here we present differentiable geoscientific modeling as a powerful pathway toward dissolving the perceived barrier between them and ushering in a paradigm shift. For decades, PBM offered benefits in interpretability and physical consistency but struggled to efficiently leverage large datasets. ML methods, especially deep networks, presented strong predictive skills yet lacked the ability to answer specific scientific questions. While various methods have been proposed for ML-physics integration, an important underlying theme -- differentiable modeling -- is not sufficiently recognized. Here we outline the concepts, applicability, and significance of differentiable geoscientific modeling (DG). "Differentiable" refers to accurately and efficiently calculating gradients with respect to model variables, critically enabling the learning of high-dimensional unknown relationships. DG refers to a range of methods connecting varying amounts of prior knowledge to neural networks and training them together, capturing a different scope than physics-guided machine learning and emphasizing first principles. Preliminary evidence suggests DG offers better interpretability and causality than ML, improved generalizability and extrapolation capability, and strong potential for knowledge discovery, while approaching the performance of purely data-driven ML. DG models require less training data while scaling favorably in performance and efficiency with increasing amounts of data. With DG, geoscientists may be better able to frame and investigate questions, test hypotheses, and discover unrecognized linkages.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Differentiable, learnable, regionalized process-based models with physical outputs can approach state-of-the-art hydrologic prediction accuracy

Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resource management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data-driven deep learning models like long short-term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly-insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall-runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here we show that differentiable, learnable, process-based models (called δ models here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively-observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process-based model modules. Without using an ensemble or post-processor, δ models can obtain a median Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing dataset, compared to 0.748 from a state-of-the-art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing dataset, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 vs. 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process-based models can output a full set of untrained variables, e.g., soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

From calibration to parameter learning: Harnessing the scaling effects of big data in geoscientific modeling

The behaviors and skills of models in many geosciences (e.g., hydrology and ecosystem sciences) strongly depend on spatially-varying parameters that need calibration. A well-calibrated model can reasonably propagate information from observations to unobserved variables via model physics, but traditional calibration is highly inefficient and results in non-unique solutions. Here we propose a novel differentiable parameter learning (dPL) framework that efficiently learns a global mapping between inputs (and optionally responses) and parameters. Crucially, dPL exhibits beneficial scaling curves not previously demonstrated to geoscientists: as training data increases, dPL achieves better performance, more physical coherence, and better generalizability (across space and uncalibrated variables), all with orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost. We demonstrate examples that learned from soil moisture and streamflow, where dPL drastically outperformed existing evolutionary and regionalization methods, or required only ~12.5% of the training data to achieve similar performance. The generic scheme promotes the integration of deep learning and process-based models, without mandating reimplementation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A Robust Statistical Analysis of the Role of Hydropower on the System Electricity Price and Price Volatility

Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid. This study examines the impact of hydropower on system electricity price and price volatility in the region served by the New England Independent System Operator (ISONE) from 2014 - 2020. We perform a robust holistic analysis of the mean and quantile effects, as well as the marginal contributing effects of hydropower in the presence of solar and wind resources. First, the price data is adjusted for deterministic temporal trends, correcting for seasonal, weekend, and diurnal effects that may obscure actual representative trends in the data. Using multiple linear regression and quantile regression, we observe that hydropower contributes to a reduction in the system electricity price and price volatility. While hydropower has a weak impact on decreasing price and volatility at the mean, it has greater impact at extreme quantiles (> 70th percentile). At these higher percentiles, we find that hydropower provides a stabilizing effect on price volatility in the presence of volatile resources such as wind. We conclude with a discussion of the observed relationship between hydropower and system electricity price and volatility.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2021

Continental-scale streamflow modeling of basins with reservoirs: towards a coherent deep-learning-based strategy

A large fraction of major waterways have dams influencing streamflow, which must be accounted for in large-scale hydrologic modeling. However, daily streamflow prediction for basins with dams is challenging for various modeling approaches, especially at large scales. Here we examined which types of dammed basins could be well represented by long short-term memory (LSTM) models using readily-available information, and delineated the remaining challenges. We analyzed data from 3557 basins (83% dammed) over the contiguous United States and noted strong impacts of reservoir purposes, degree of regulation (dor), and diversion on streamflow modeling. While a model trained on a widely-used reference-basin dataset performed poorly for non-reference basins, the model trained on the whole dataset presented a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.74. The zero-dor, small-dor (with storage of approximately a month of average streamflow or less), and large-dor basins were found to have distinct behaviors, so migrating models between categories yielded catastrophic results, which means we must not treat small-dor basins as reference ones. However, training with pooled data from different sets yielded optimal median NSEs of 0.72, 0.79, and 0.64 for these respective groups, noticeably stronger than existing models. These results support a coherent modeling strategy where smaller dams (storing about a month of average streamflow or less) are modeled implicitly as part of basin rainfall-runoff processes; then, large-dor reservoirs of certain types can be represented explicitly. However, dammed basins must be present in the training dataset. Future work should examine separate modeling of large reservoirs for fire protection and irrigation, hydroelectric power generation, and flood control.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

The data synergy effects of time-series deep learning models in hydrology

When fitting statistical models to variables in geoscientific disciplines such as hydrology, it is a customary practice to regionalize - to divide a large spatial domain into multiple regions and study each region separately - instead of fitting a single model on the entire data (also known as unification). Traditional wisdom in these fields suggests that models built for each region separately will have higher performance because of homogeneity within each region. However, by partitioning the training data, each model has access to fewer data points and cannot learn from commonalities between regions. Here, through two hydrologic examples (soil moisture and streamflow), we argue that unification can often significantly outperform regionalization in the era of big data and deep learning (DL). Common DL architectures, even without bespoke customization, can automatically build models that benefit from regional commonality while accurately learning region-specific differences. We highlight an effect we call data synergy, where the results of the DL models improved when data were pooled together from characteristically different regions. In fact, the performance of the DL models benefited from more diverse rather than more homogeneous training data. We hypothesize that DL models automatically adjust their internal representations to identify commonalities while also providing sufficient discriminatory information to the model. The results here advocate for pooling together larger datasets, and suggest the academic community should place greater emphasis on data sharing and compilation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Prediction in ungauged regions with sparse flow duration curves and input-selection ensemble modeling

While long short-term memory (LSTM) models have demonstrated stellar performance with streamflow predictions, there are major risks in applying these models in contiguous regions with no gauges, or predictions in ungauged regions (PUR) problems. However, softer data such as the flow duration curve (FDC) may be already available from nearby stations, or may become available. Here we demonstrate that sparse FDC data can be migrated and assimilated by an LSTM-based network, via an encoder. A stringent region-based holdout test showed a median Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.62 for a US dataset, substantially higher than previous state-of-the-art global-scale ungauged basin tests. The baseline model without FDC was already competitive (median KGE 0.56), but integrating FDCs had substantial value. Because of the inaccurate representation of inputs, the baseline models might sometimes produce catastrophic results. However, model generalizability was further meaningfully improved by compiling an ensemble based on models with different input selections.

cs.LG↗