arXiv subjects

Katia Colaneri

Publications and source records attributed to Katia Colaneri.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Optimal Liquidation under Partial Information with Price Impact

We study the optimal liquidation problem in a market model where the bid price follows a geometric pure jump process whose local characteristics are driven by an unobservable finite-state Markov chain and by the liquidation rate. This model is consistent with stylized facts of high frequency data such as the discrete nature of tick data and the clustering in the order flow. We include both temporary and permanent effects into our analysis. We use stochastic filtering to reduce the optimal liquidation problem to an equivalent optimization problem under complete information. This leads to a stochastic control problem for piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). We carry out a detailed mathematical analysis of this problem. In particular, we derive the optimality equation for the value function, we characterize the value function as continuous viscosity solution of the associated dynamic programming equation, and we prove a novel comparison result. The paper concludes with numerical results illustrating the impact of partial information and price impact on the value function and on the optimal liquidation rate.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2018

Pairs Trading under Drift Uncertainty and Risk Penalization

In this work, we study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem related to pairs trading, which is an investment strategy that matches a long position in one security with a short position in another security with similar characteristics. The relationship between pairs, called a spread, is modeled by a Gaussian mean-reverting process whose drift rate is modulated by an unobservable continuous-time, finite-state Markov chain. Using the classical stochastic filtering theory, we reduce this problem with partial information to the one with full information and solve it for the logarithmic utility function, where the terminal wealth is penalized by the riskiness of the portfolio according to the realized volatility of the wealth process. We characterize optimal dollar-neutral strategies as well as optimal value functions under full and partial information and show that the certainty equivalence principle holds for the optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, we provide a numerical analysis for a toy example with a two-state Markov chain.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2017

Portfolio optimization for a large investor controlling market sentiment under partial information

We consider an investor faced with the utility maximization problem in which the risky asset price process has pure-jump dynamics affected by an unobservable continuous-time finite-state Markov chain, the intensity of which can also be controlled by actions of the investor. Using the classical filtering theory, we reduce this problem with partial information to one with full information and solve it for logarithmic and power utility functions. In particular, we apply control theory for piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) to our problem and derive the optimality equation for the value function and characterize the value function as the unique viscosity solution of the associated dynamic programming equation. Finally, we provide a toy example, where the unobservable state process is driven by a two-state Markov chain, and discuss how investor's ability to control the intensity of the state process affects the optimal portfolio strategies as well as the optimal wealth under both partial and full information cases.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Unit-linked life insurance policies: optimal hedging in partially observable market models

In this paper we investigate the hedging problem of a unit-linked life insurance contract via the local risk-minimization approach, when the insurer has a restricted information on the market. In particular, we consider an endowment insurance contract, that is a combination of a term insurance policy and a pure endowment, whose final value depends on the trend of a stock market where the premia the policyholder pays are invested. We assume that the stock price process dynamics depends on an exogenous unobservable stochastic factor that also influences the mortality rate of the policyholder. To allow for mutual dependence between the financial and the insurance markets, we use the progressive enlargement of filtration approach. We characterize the optimal hedging strategy in terms of the integrand in the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition of the insurance claim with respect to the minimal martingale measure and the available information flow. We provide an explicit formula by means of predictable projection of the corresponding hedging strategy under full information with respect to the natural filtration of the risky asset price and the minimal martingale measure. Finally, we discuss applications in a Markovian setting via filtering.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

The Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition under incomplete information

In this paper we study the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition of a square integrable random variable $ξ$ with respect to a given semimartingale $S$ under restricted information. Thanks to the relationship between this decomposition and that of the projection of $ξ$ with respect to the given information flow, we characterize the integrand appearing in the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition under partial information in the general case where $ξ$ is not necessarily adapted to the available information level. For partially observable Markovian models where the dynamics of $S$ depends on an unobservable stochastic factor $X$, we show how to compute the decomposition by means of filtering problems involving functions defined on an infinite-dimensional space. Moreover, in the case of a partially observed jump-diffusion model where $X$ is described by a pure jump process taking values in a finite dimensional space, we compute explicitly the integrand in the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition by working with finite dimensional filters.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Local risk-minimization under restricted information to asset prices

In this paper we investigate the local risk-minimization approach for a semimartingale financial market where there are restrictions on the available information to agents who can observe at least the asset prices. We characterize the optimal strategy in terms of suitable decompositions of a given contingent claim, with respect to a filtration representing the information level, even in presence of jumps. Finally, we discuss some practical examples in a Markovian framework and show that the computation of the optimal strategy leads to filtering problems under the real-world probability measure and under the minimalmartingale measure.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Hedging of unit-linked life insurance contracts with unobservable mortality hazard rate via local risk-minimization

In this paper we investigate the local risk-minimization approach for a combined financial-insurance model where there are restrictions on the information available to the insurance company. In particular we assume that, at any time, the insurance company may observe the number of deaths from a specific portfolio of insured individuals but not the mortality hazard rate. We consider a financial market driven by a general semimartingale and we aim to hedge unit-linked life insurance contracts via the local risk-minimization approach under partial information. The Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition of the insurance claim and explicit formulas for the optimal strategy for pure endowment and term insurance contracts are provided in terms of the projection of the survival process on the information flow. Moreover, in a Markovian framework, we reduce to solve a filtering problem with point process observations.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2013

A Benchmark Approach to Risk-Minimization under Partial Information

In this paper we study a risk-minimizing hedging problem for a semimartingale incomplete financial market where d+1 assets are traded continuously and whose price is expressed in units of the numéraire portfolio. According to the so-called benchmark approach, we investigate the (benchmarked) risk-minimizing strategy in the case where there are restrictions on the available information. More precisely, we characterize the optimal strategy as the integrand appearing in the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition of the benchmarked claim under partial information and provide its description in terms of the integrands in the classical Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition under full information via dual predictable projections. Finally, we apply the results in the case of a Markovian jump-diffusion driven market model where the assets prices dynamics depend on a stochastic factor which is not observable by investors.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2013

The Zakai equation of nonlinear filtering for jump-diffusion observation: existence and uniqueness

This paper is concerned with the nonlinear filtering problem for a general Markovian partially observed system (X,Y), whose dynamics is modeled by correlated jump-diffusions having common jump times. At any time t, the sigma-algebra generated by the observation process Y provides all the available information about the signal X. The central goal of stochastic filtering is to characterize the filter which is the conditional distribution of X, given the observed data. It has been proved in Ceci-Colaneri (2012) that the filter is the unique probability measure-valued process satisfying a nonlinear stochastic equation, the so-called Kushner-Stratonovich equation (KS-equation). In this paper the aim is to describe the filter in terms of the unnormalized filter, which is solution to a linear stochastic differential equation, called the Zakai equation. We prove equivalence between strong uniqueness for the solution to the Kushner Stratonovich equation and strong uniqueness for the solution to the Zakai one and, as a consequence, we deduce pathwise uniqueness for the solutions to the Zakai equation by applying the Filtered Martingale Problem approach (Kurtz-Ocone (1988), Kurtz-Nappo (2011), Ceci-Colaneri (2012)). To conclude, we discuss some particular cases.

math.PR↗