Unbiased Estimation of Conditional Covariance for Quantum Optomechanics
Continuous measurements can prepare macroscopic mechanical oscillators in conditional quantum states, but their covariance is difficult to verify. The conventional retrodictive estimator assumes a forward--backward covariance symmetry and can be biased, because physical dynamics such as feedback damping reduces the observability of the state from future records. Here, we derive an exact linear-Gaussian estimator from causal, retrodictive, and smoothed trajectories. For a milligram-scale mirror, it agrees with a Riccati prediction based on parameters fixed independently, while the conventional estimate exhibits a covariance-space bias of $d_M\simeq3.5$. Our method paves the way toward unbiased testing of macroscopic entanglement within a calibrated linear-Gaussian model, applicable to both tabletop mirrors and kg-scale gravitational-wave test masses.