arXiv subjects

Kayhan Gultekin

Publications and source records attributed to Kayhan Gultekin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Supermassive Black Hole Mass Measurement in NGC 5102 with Schwarzschild Orbit-superposition Modeling

We present a stellar-dynamical mass measurement of the central black hole in the lenticular galaxy NGC~5102 (SA0$^-$). Our analysis combines high-quality integral-field spectroscopy from the VLT Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer with high-spatial- and high-spectral-resolution Hubble Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph observations, using the Ca II triplet as a stellar kinematic tracer. We constrain the black hole mass with axisymmetric, three-integral Schwarzschild orbit-superposition models, incorporating surface brightness measurements from HST F547M WFPC2 imaging. Assuming a distance of $3.66\,\mathrm{Mpc}$, we find a black hole mass of $(1.30^{+0.19}_{-0.18})\times10^6\,\mathrm{M_{\scriptscriptstyle\odot}}$, which is within $1.7\sigma$ of a previous CO band-head-based Jeans Anisotropic Modeling result ($M_{\bullet}=(9.1^{+1.8}_{-1.5})\times10^5\,\mathrm{M_{\scriptscriptstyle\odot}}$). Our measurement is also consistent with literature extrapolations of the $M_{\bullet}$-$\sigma_e$ relation into the currently under-sampled low-mass regime. The close agreement between these independent dynamical approaches provides external validation of the Jeans Anisotropic Modeling framework and supports the robustness of our Schwarzschild orbit-superposition result, bolstering confidence in future black hole mass measurements with this framework.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Impacts of Customized Chromatic Noise Models on Gravitational Wave Analyses

We report updated nHz gravitational wave (GW) significance, characterization, and interpretations using the customized chromatic-noise models (CNMs) developed in Larsen, Baier et al. (2026). for the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find increased evidence for the Hellings-Downs (HD) correlation signature of the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), with a Bayes factor of $1571\pm14$ for HD-correlations over a common uncorrelated red-noise process using a power-law model with $14$ Fourier modes. We find this $\sim8\times$ increase in Bayes factor from Agazie et al. (2023a) is a result of improved noise mitigation. Assuming an analytic null distribution for the frequentist interpulsar correlation statistic, this corresponds to a slightly more significant measurement from $3.16\sigma$ to $3.32\sigma$ against the no-correlation scenario. Spectral inference with CNMs brings the power-law GWB amplitude down to $A_{\rm GWB} = 2.1^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\times10^{-15}$ at fixed $\gamma_{\rm GWB} = 13/3$. In a varied-$\gamma$ analysis, the spectral index increases to $\gamma_{\rm GWB}=3.5^{+0.7}_{-0.6}$. We report updates on an all-sky continuous gravitational wave (CW) search as well as select targeted searches and calculate a $3.2\times$ larger detection volume for the NANOGrav detector. With CNMs, we find reduced evidence for a non-Einsteinian, scalar-transverse mode of gravity. Finally, we reinterpret the GWB first with the assumption of an astrophysical background sourced by SMBHBs and then assuming the more exotic origins of cosmic inflation, a first-order cosmological phase transition, and stable cosmic strings. Under both the SMBHB hypothesis and the cosmological hypotheses, we see only marginal shifts in model parameter posteriors which are consistent with the slightly quieter and steeper power-law GWB spectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Core Scouring Dynamics and Gravitational Wave Consequences: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binary Hardening

We present a multi-messenger investigation of supermassive black hole binary (SBHB) hardening by jointly comparing models to the observed stellar mass deficits of nearby core galaxies and to nanohertz gravitational-wave background measurements. Using merger trees from the IllustrisTNG cosmological simulations, we construct a synthetic population of core galaxies and predict their stellar mass deficits under binary evolution driven by dynamical friction, stellar scattering, and gravitational-wave emission, assuming circular orbits. We calibrate the efficiency of stellar scattering by matching the observed relation between stellar mass deficit and galaxy stellar mass. The inferred hardening rates reproduce the observed core population when stellar scattering is more efficient than in our baseline prescription, consistent with additional environmental or dynamical effects. However, these rates do not produce the level of low-frequency attenuation required to match the apparent turnover in the nanohertz gravitational-wave background. This tension suggests that either additional physics--such as eccentricity evolution, gas dynamics, recoils, triple interactions, or changes in the black hole--galaxy scaling relation--or contributions from galaxy populations not represented by local core galaxies (e.g., massive power-law ellipticals) may be important. A comprehensive treatment of these effects is required before identifying the dominant mechanisms shaping the gravitational-wave spectrum.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Multimessenger Probes of the Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population: The Role of Pulsar Timing Arrays

By inferring the gravitational wave background (GWB) from a population of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) enable the study of massive black holes. In many ways, PTAs manifest the promise of a multimessenger approach to astronomy: they can constrain SMBHB population characteristics that are otherwise difficult to constrain using electromagnetic observations, such as hardening mechanisms at sub-parsec separations. In this work, we quantify this multimessenger promise using Bayesian inference of many realizations of simulated PTA data, while adopting a model for the SMBHBs that has been successfully applied to the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). Our analyses of 200 realistic, simulated NANOGrav data sets show that there is a greater than 50\% chance of reducing the prior uncertainty in the SMBHB hardening rate by more than 50\%, and in the SMBHB evolutionary lifetime by 25--75\%. Additionally, there is an 88\% chance that PTA data can reduce the prior uncertainty in the characteristic mass variable of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) by 25--50\%. For $M_{\text{BH}}$--$M_{\text{Bulge}}$ parameters (in a model without redshift evolution) and the overall normalization parameter of the GSMF, PTA data can provide only marginal information gain beyond the constraints from electromagnetic observations. Our work delineates the domains over which electromagnetic and gravitational-wave data constrain the demographics and dynamics of the supermassive black-hole binary population, offering a clearer picture of the impact of population multi-messenger astrophysics probes with PTAs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Inferring Mbh-Mbulge Evolution from the Gravitational Wave Background

We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB spectrum with a static versus evolving-amplitude Mbh-Mbulge relation. We additionally consider the influence of the choice of galaxy stellar mass function on the modeled GWB spectra. Our models are able to reproduce the GWB amplitude with either a large number density of massive galaxies or a positively evolving Mbh-Mbulge amplitude (i.e., the Mbh / Mbulge ratio was higher in the past). If we assume that the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude does not evolve, our models require a galaxy stellar mass function that implies an undetected population of massive galaxies (Mstellar > 10^11 Msun at z > 1). When the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude is allowed to evolve, we can model the GWB spectrum with all fiducial values and an Mbh-Mbulge amplitude that evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(1.04 +/- 0.5).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Deep Neural Emulation of the Supermassive Black-hole Binary Population

While supermassive black-hole (SMBH)-binaries are not the only viable source for the low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) signal evidenced by the most recent pulsar timing array (PTA) data sets, they are expected to be the most likely. Thus, connecting the measured PTA GWB spectrum and the underlying physics governing the demographics and dynamics of SMBH-binaries is extremely important. Previously, Gaussian processes (GPs) and dense neural networks have been used to make such a connection by being built as conditional emulators; their input is some selected evolution or environmental SMBH-binary parameters and their output is the emulated mean and standard deviation of the GWB strain ensemble distribution over many Universes. In this paper, we use a normalizing flow (NF) emulator that is trained on the entirety of the GWB strain ensemble distribution, rather than only mean and standard deviation. As a result, we can predict strain distributions that mirror underlying simulations very closely while also capturing frequency covariances in the strain distributions as well as statistical complexities such as tails, non-Gaussianities, and multimodalities that are otherwise not learnable by existing techniques. In particular, we feature various comparisons between the NF-based emulator and the GP approach used extensively in past efforts. Our analyses conclude that the NF-based emulator not only outperforms GPs in the ease and computational cost of training but also outperforms in the fidelity of the emulated GWB strain ensemble distributions.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

Searching for the Highest-z Dual AGN in the Deepest Chandra Surveys

We present an analysis searching for dual AGN among 62 high-redshift ($2.5 < z < 3.5$) X-ray sources selected from publicly available deep Chandra fields. We aim to quantify the frequency of dual AGN in the high-redshift Universe, which holds implications for black hole merger timescales and low-frequency gravitational wave detection rates. We analyze each X-ray source using BAYMAX, an analysis tool that calculates the Bayes factor for whether a given archival Chandra AGN is more likely a single or dual point source. We find no strong evidence for dual AGN in any individual source in our sample. We then increase our sensitivity to search for dual AGN across the sample by comparing our measured distribution of Bayes factors to that expected from a sample composed entirely of single point sources, and again find no evidence for dual AGN in the observed sample distribution. Although our analysis utilizes one of the largest Chandra catalogs of high-$z$ X-ray point sources available to study, the findings remain limited by the modest number of sources observed at the highest spatial resolution with Chandra and the typical count rates of the detected sources. Our non-detection allows us to place an upper-limit on the X-ray dual AGN fraction between $2.5<z<3.5$ of 4.8\%. Expanding substantially on these results at X-ray wavelengths will require future surveys spanning larger sky areas and extending to fainter fluxes than has been possible with Chandra. We illustrate the potential of the AXIS mission concept in this regard.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Connecting Core Galaxy Properties to the Massive Black Hole Binary Population

We investigate how the properties of massive black hole binaries influence the observed properties of core galaxies. We compare the observed trend in stellar mass deficit as a function of total stellar mass in the core galaxy with predicted trends in IllustrisTNG. We calculate mass deficits in simulated galaxies by applying sub-grid, post-processing physics based on the results of literature N-body experiments. We find the median value of the posterior distribution for the minimum binary mass ratio capable of creating a core is 0.7. For the gas mass fraction above which a core is erased we find a median value of 0.6. Thus low mass ratio binaries do not contribute to core formation and gas-rich mergers must lead to star formation within the nucleus, ultimately erasing the core. Such constraints have important implications for the overall massive black hole binary population, black hole-galaxy co-evolution, and the origin of the gravitational wave background.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3σ$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4σ$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Getting Ready for LISA: The Data, Support and Preparation Needed to Maximize US Participation in Space-Based Gravitational Wave Science

The NASA LISA Study Team was tasked to study how NASA might support US scientists to participate and maximize the science return from the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission. LISA is gravitational wave observatory led by ESA with NASA as a junior partner, and is scheduled to launch in 2034. Among our findings: LISA science productivity is greatly enhanced by a full-featured US science center and an open access data model. As other major missions have demonstrated, a science center acts as both a locus and an amplifier of research innovation, data analysis, user support, user training and user interaction. In its most basic function, a US Science Center could facilitate entry into LISA science by hosting a Data Processing Center and a portal for the US community to access LISA data products. However, an enhanced LISA Science Center could: support one of the parallel independent processing pipelines required for data product validation; stimulate the high level of research on data analysis that LISA demands; support users unfamiliar with a novel observatory; facilitate astrophysics and fundamental research; provide an interface into the subtleties of the instrument to validate extraordinary discoveries; train new users; and expand the research community through guest investigator, postdoc and student programs. Establishing a US LISA Science Center well before launch can have a beneficial impact on the participation of the broader astronomical community by providing training, hosting topical workshops, disseminating mock catalogs, software pipelines, and documentation. Past experience indicates that successful science centers are established several years before launch; this early adoption model may be especially relevant for a pioneering mission like LISA.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

AGN Triality of Triple Mergers: Detection of Faint X-ray Point Sources

We present results from our X-ray analysis of the first systematic search for triple AGN in nearby (z<0.077) triple galaxy mergers. We analyze archival Chandra observations of 7 triple galaxy mergers with BAYMAX (Bayesian Analysis of Multiple AGN in X-rays), fitting each observation with single, dual, and triple X-ray point source models. In doing so, we conclude that 1 triple merger has one X-ray point source (SDSS J0858+1822, although it's unlikely to be an AGN); 5 triple mergers are likely composed of two X-ray point sources (NGC 3341, SDSS J1027+1749, SDSS J1631+2352, SDSS J1708+2153, and SDSS J2356$-$1016); and one system is composed of three X-ray point sources (SDSS J0849+1114). By fitting the individual X-ray spectra of each point source, we analyze the 2-7 keV luminosities as well as the levels of obscuration associated with each potential AGN. We find that 4/5 dual X-ray point source systems have primary and secondary point sources with bright X-ray luminosities (L_2-7 kev >10^40 erg s^-1), possibly associated with 4 new undetected dual AGN. The dual and triple point source systems are found to have physical separations between 3-9 kpc and flux ratios between 2x10^-3 - 0.84. A multi-wavelength analysis to determine the origin of the X-ray point sources discovered in this work is presented in our companion paper (Foord et al. 2020c).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

AGN Triality of Triple Mergers: Multi-wavelength Classifications

We present results from a multi-wavelength analysis searching for multiple AGN systems in nearby (z<0.077) triple galaxy mergers. Combining archival Chandra, SDSS, WISE, and VLA observations, we quantify the rate of nearby triple AGN, as well as investigate possible connections between SMBH accretion and merger environments. Analyzing the multi-wavelength observations of 7 triple galaxy mergers, we find that 1 triple merger has a single AGN (NGC 3341); we discover, for the first time, 4 likely dual AGN (SDSS J1027+1749, SDSS J1631+2352, SDSS J1708+2153, and SDSS J2356-1016); we confirm one triple AGN system, SDSS J0849+1114; and 1 triple merger in our sample remains ambiguous (SDSS J0858+1822). Analyzing the WISE data, we find a trend of increasing N_H (associated with the primary AGN) as a function of increasing W1-W2 color, reflecting that the motions of gas and dust are coupled in merging environments, where large amount of both can be funneled into the active central region during mergers. Additionally, we find that the one triple AGN system in our sample has the highest levels of N_H and W1-W2 color, while the dual AGN candidates all have lower levels; these results are consistent with theoretical merger simulations that suggest higher levels of nuclear gas are more likely to activate AGN in mergers.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Chandra Observations of Abell 2261 Brightest Cluster Galaxy, a Candidate Host to a Recoiling Black Hole

We use Chandra X-ray observations to look for evidence of a recoiling black hole from the brightest cluster galaxy in Abell 2261 (A2261-BCG). A2261-BCG is a strong candidate for a recoiling black hole because of its large, flat stellar core, revealed by Hubble Space Telescope imaging observations. We took 100-ksec observations with Chandra and combined it with 35 ksec of archival observations to look for low-level accretion onto a black hole of expected mass $M\sim10^{10}\ M_{\scriptscriptstyle \odot}$ that could possibly be located in one of four off-center stellar knots near the galaxy's center or else in the optical center of the galaxy or in the location of radio emission. We found no X-ray emission arising from a point source in excess of the cluster gas and can place limits on the accretion of any black hole in the central region to a 2-7 keV flux below $4.3 \times 10^{-16}\ \mathrm{erg\ s^{-1}\ cm^{-2}}$, corresponding to a bolometric Eddington fraction of about $10^{-6}$. Thus there is either no $10^{10}\ M_{\scriptscriptstyle \odot}$ black hole in the core of A2261-BCG, or it is accreting at a low level. We also discuss the morphology of the X-ray emitting gas in the cluster and how its asymmetry is consistent with a large dynamic event.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

A Bayesian Analysis of SDSS J0914+0853, a Low-Mass Dual AGN Candidate

We present the first results from BAYMAX (Bayesian AnalYsis of Multiple AGN in X-rays), a tool that uses a Bayesian framework to quantitatively evaluate whether a given Chandra observation is more likely a single or dual point source. Although the most robust method of determining the presence of dual AGNs is to use X-ray observations, only sources that are widely separated relative to the instrument PSF are easy to identify. It becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish dual AGNs from single AGNs when the separation is on the order of Chandra's angular resolution (<1''). Using likelihood models for single and dual point sources, BAYMAX quantitatively evaluates the likelihood of an AGN for a given source. Specifically, we present results from BAYMAX analyzing the lowest-mass dual AGN candidate to date, SDSS J0914+0853, where archival Chandra data shows a possible secondary AGN ~0.3'' from the primary. Analyzing a new 50 ks Chandra observation, results from BAYMAX shows that SDSS J0914+0853 is most likely a single AGN with a Bayes factor of 13.5 in favor of a single point source model. Further, posterior distributions from the dual point source model are consistent with emission from a single AGN. We find the probability of SDSS J0914+0853 being a dual AGN system with a flux ratio f>0.3 and separation r>0.3'' to be very low. Overall, BAYMAX will be an important tool for correctly classifying candidate dual AGNs in the literature, and studying the dual AGN population where past spatial resolution limits have prevented systematic analyses.

astro-ph.HE↗