arXiv subjects

Kazunari Shibata

Publications and source records attributed to Kazunari Shibata.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

A Deep-Learning Approach for Operation of an Automated Realtime Flare Forecast

Automated forecasts serve important role in space weather science, by providing statistical insights to flare-trigger mechanisms, and by enabling tailor-made forecasts and high-frequency forecasts. Only by realtime forecast we can experimentally measure the performance of flare-forecasting methods while confidently avoiding overlearning. We have been operating unmanned flare forecast service since August, 2015 that provides 24-hour-ahead forecast of solar flares, every 12 minutes. We report the method and prediction results of the system.

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arXiv2016

Statistical properties of superflares on solar-type stars based on the Kepler 1-min cadence data

We searched for superflares on solar-type stars using the Kepler short-cadence (1-min sampling) data in order to detect superflares with short duration. We found 187 superflares on 23 solar-type stars whose bolometric energy ranges from the order of $10^{32}$ erg to $10^{36}$ erg. Using these new data combined with the results from the data with 30-min sampling, we found the occurrence frequency ($dN/dE$) of superflares as a function of flare energy ($E$) shows the power-law distribution ($dN/dE \propto E ^{-α}$) with $α=1.5$ for $10^{33}<E<10^{36}$ erg. The upper limit of energy released by superflares is basically comparable to a fraction of the magnetic energy stored near starspots which is estimated from the amplitude of brightness variations. We also found that the duration of superflares ($τ$) increases with the flare energy ($E$) as $τ\propto E^{0.39\pm 0.03}$. This can be explained if we assume the time-scale of flares is determined by the Alfv$\acute{\rm e}$n time.

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arXiv2015

Numerical Study on Emergence of Kinked Flux Tube for Understanding of Possible Origin of Delta-spot Regions

We carried out a magnetohydrodynamics simulation where a subsurface twisted kink-unstable flux tube emerges from the solar interior to the corona. Unlike the previous expectations based on the bodily emergence of a knotted tube, we found that the kinked tube can spontaneously form a complex quadrupole structure at the photosphere. Due to the development of the kink instability before the emergence, the magnetic twist at the kinked apex of the tube is greatly reduced, although the other parts of the tube is still strongly twisted. This leads to the formation of a complex quadrupole structure: a pair of the coherent, strongly twisted spots and a narrow complex bipolar pair between it. The quadrupole is formed by the submergence of a portion of emerged magnetic fields. This result is relevant for understanding of the origin of the complex multipolar $δ$-spot regions that have a strong magnetic shear and emerge with polarity orientations not following Hale-Nicholson and Joy Laws.

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arXiv2015

UFCORIN: A Fully Automated Predictor of Solar Flares in GOES X-Ray Flux

We have developed UFCORIN, a platform for studying and automating space weather prediction. Using our system we have tested 6,160 different combinations of SDO/HMI data as input data, and simulated the prediction of GOES X-ray flux for 2 years (2011-2012) with one-hour cadence. We have found that direct comparison of the true skill statistics (TSS) from small cross-validation sets is ill-posed, and used the standard scores ($z$) of the TSS to compare the performance of the various prediction strategies. The $z$ of a strategy is a stochastic variable of the stochastically-chosen cross-validation dataset, and the $z$ for the three strategies best at predicting X, $\geq$M and $\geq$C class flares are better than the average $z$ of the 6,160 strategies by 2.3$σ$, 2.1$σ$, 3.8$σ$ confidence levels, respectively. The best three TSS values were $0.75\pm0.07$, $0.48\pm0.02$, and $0.56\pm0.04$, respectively.

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arXiv2015

High dispersion spectroscopy of solar-type superflare stars with Subaru/HDS

We carried out spectroscopic observations with Subaru/HDS of 50 solar-type superflare stars found from Kepler data. More than half (34 stars) of the target stars show no evidence of the binary system, and we confirmed atmospheric parameters of these stars are roughly in the range of solar-type stars. We then conducted the detailed analyses for these 34 stars. First, the value of the "$v\sin i$" (projected rotational velocity) measured from spectroscopic results is consistent with the rotational velocity estimated from the brightness variation. Second, there is a correlation between the amplitude of the brightness variation and the intensity of Ca II IR triplet line. All the targets expected to have large starspots because of their large amplitude of the brightness variation show high chromospheric activities compared with the Sun. These results support that the brightness variation of superflare stars is explained by the rotation of a star with large starspots.

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arXiv2015

High Dispersion Spectroscopy of Solar-type Superflare Stars. III. Lithium Abundances

We report on the abundance analysis of Li in solar-type (G-type main sequence) superflare stars which were found by the analysis of Kepler photometric data. Li is a key element to understand the evolution of the stellar convection zone which reflects the age of solar-type stars. We performed the high dispersion spectroscopy of solar-type superflare stars with Subaru/HDS, and confirmed that 34 stars show no evidence of binarity in our previous study. In this study, we derived the Li abundances of these 34 objects. We investigate correlations of Li abundance with stellar atmospheric parameters, rotational velocity, and superflare activities to understand the nature of superflare stars and the possibility of the nucleosynthesis of Li by superflares. We confirm the large dispersion in the Li abundance, and the correlation with stellar parameters is not seen. As compared with the Li abundance in Hyades cluster which is younger than the Sun, it is suggested that half of the observed stars are younger than Hyades cluster. The measured value of $v \sin i$ (projected rotational velocity) supports those objects are younger than the Sun. However, there are some objects which show the low Li abundance and slowly rotate on the basis of the estimated $v \sin i$ and $P$ (period of brightness variation). This result indicates that the superflare stars are not only young stars but also old stars like our Sun. In our observations, we could not find any evidence of Li productions by superflares. Further research on Li isotope abundances of superflare stars would clarify the Li production by stellar flares.

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arXiv2015

A Theoretical Model of Pinching Current Sheet in Low-beta Plasmas

Magnetic reconnection is an important physical process in various explosive phenomena in the universe. In the previous studies, it was found that fast re- connection takes place when the thickness of a current sheet becomes on the order of a microscopic length such as the ion larmor radius or the ion inertial length. In this study, we investigated the pinching process of a current sheet by the Lorentz force in a low-β plasma using one-dimensional magnetohydrodynam- ics (MHD) simulations. It is known that there is an exact self-similar solution for this problem that neglects gas pressure. We compared the non-linear MHD dynamics with the analytic self-similar solution. From the MHD simulations, we found that with the gas pressure included the implosion process deviates from the analytic self-similar solution as t {\rightarrow} t 0, where t 0 is the explosion time when the thickness of a current sheet of the analytic solution becomes 0. We also found a pair of MHD fast-mode shocks are generated and propagate after the formation of the pinched current sheet as t {\rightarrow} t 0 . On the basis of the Rankine-Hugoniot relations, we derived the scaling law of the physical quantities with respect to the initial plasma beta in the pinched current sheet. Our study could help us to estimate the physical quantities in the pinched current sheet formed in a low-\b{eta} plasma.

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arXiv2015

Magnetohydrodynamic shocks in and above post-flare loops: two-dimensional simulation and a simplified model

Solar flares are an explosive phenomenon, where super-sonic flows and shocks are expected in and above the post-flare loops. To understand the dynamics of post-flare loops, a two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (2D MHD) simulation of a solar flare has been carried out. We found new shock structures in and above the post-flare loops, which were not resolved in the previous work by Yokoyama and Shibata 2001. To study the dynamics of flows along the reconnected magnetic field, kinematics and energetics of the plasma are investigated along selected field lines. It is found that shocks are crucial to determine the thermal and flow structures in the post-flare loops. On the basis of the 2D MHD simulation, we have developed a new post-flare loop model which we call the pseudo-2D MHD model. The model is based on the 1D MHD equations, where all the variables depend on one space dimension and all the three components of the magnetic and velocity fields are considered. Our pseudo-2D model includes many features of the multi-dimensional MHD processes related to magnetic reconnection (particularly MHD shocks), which the previous 1D hydrodynamic models are not able to include. We compare the shock formation and energetics of a specific field line in the 2D calculation with those in our pseudo-2D MHD model, and we found that they give similar results. This model will allow us to study the evolution of the post-flare loops in a wide parameter space without expensive computational cost and without neglecting important physics associated with magnetic reconnection.

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arXiv2015

Statistical properties of superflares on solar-type stars based on 1-min cadence data

We searched for superflares on solar-type stars using Kepler data with 1 min sampling in order to detect superflares with short duration. We found 187 superflares on 23 solar-type stars whose bolometric energy ranges from the order of $10^{32}$ erg to $10^{36}$ erg. Some superflares show multiple peaks with the peak separation of the order of $100$-$1000$ seconds which is comparable to the periods of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. Using these new data combined with the results from the data with 30 min sampling, we found the occurrence frequency ($dN/dE$) of superflares as a function of flare energy ($E$) shows the power-law distribution ($dN/dE \propto E^{-α}$) with $α\sim -1.5$ for $10^{33}<E<10^{36}$ erg which is consistent with the previous results. The average occurrence rate of superflares with the energy of $10^{33}$ erg which is equivalent to X100 solar flares is about once in 500-600 years. The upper limit of energy released by superflares is basically comparable to a fraction of the magnetic energy stored near starspots which is estimated from the photometry. We also found that the duration of superflares ($τ$) increases with the flare energy ($E$) as $τ\propto E^{0.39\pm 0.03}$. This can be explained if we assume the time-scale of flares is determined by the Alfv$\acute{\rm e}$n time.

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arXiv2015

High Dispersion Spectroscopy of Solar-type Superflare Stars. I. Temperature, Surface Gravity, Metallicity, and $v \sin i$

We conducted high dispersion spectroscopic observations of 50 superflare stars with Subaru/HDS, and measured the stellar parameters of them. These 50 targets were selected from the solar-type (G-type main sequence) superflare stars that we had discovered from the Kepler photometric data. As a result of these spectroscopic observations, we found that more than half (34 stars) of our 50 targets have no evidence of binary system. We then estimated effective temperature ($T_{\rm{eff}}$), surface gravity ($\log g$), metallicity ([Fe/H]), and projected rotational velocity ($v\sin i$) of these 34 superflare stars on the basis of our spectroscopic data. The accuracy of our estimations is higher than that of Kepler Input Catalog (KIC) values, and the differences between our values and KIC values ($(ΔT_{\rm{eff}})_{\rm{rms}} \sim 219$K, $(Δ\log g)_{\rm{rms}} \sim 0.37$ dex, and $(Δ\rm{[Fe/H]})_{\rm{rms}} \sim 0.46$ dex) are comparable to the large uncertainties and systematic differences of KIC values reported by the previous researches. We confirmed that the estimated $T_{\rm{eff}}$ and $\log g$ values of the 34 superflare stars are roughly in the range of solar-type stars. In particular, these parameters and the brightness variation period ($P_{0}$) of 9 stars are in the range of "Sun-like" stars ($5600\leq T_{\rm{eff}}\leq 6000$K, $\log g\geq$4.0, and $P_{0}>$10 days). Five of the 34 target stars are fast rotators ($v \sin i \geq 10$km s$^{-1}$), while 22 stars have relatively low $v \sin i$ values ($v \sin i<5$km s$^{-1}$). These results suggest that stars whose spectroscopic properties similar to the Sun can have superflares, and this supports the hypothesis that the Sun might cause a superflare.

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arXiv2015

Prominence Activation by Coronal Fast Mode Shock

An X5.4 class flare occurred in active region (AR) NOAA11429 on 2012 March 7. The flare was associated with very fast coronal mass ejection (CME) with its velocity of over 2500 km/s. In the images taken with STEREO-B/COR1, a dome-like disturbance was seen to detach from expanding CME bubble and propagated further. A Type-II radio burst was also observed at the same time. On the other hand, in EUV images obtained by SDO/AIA, expanding dome-like structure and its foot print propagating to the north were observed. The foot print propagated with its average speed of about 670 km/s and hit a prominence located at the north pole and activated it. While the activation, the prominence was strongly brightened. On the basis of some observational evidence, we concluded that the foot print in AIA images and the ones in COR1 images are the same, that is MHD fast mode shock front. With the help of a linear theory, the fast mode mach number of the coronal shock is estimated to be between 1.11 and 1.29 using the initial velocity of the activated prominence. Also, the plasma compression ratio of the shock is enhanced to be between 1.18 and 2.11 in the prominence material, which we consider to be the reason of the strong brightening of the activated prominence. The applicability of linear theory to the shock problem is tested with nonlinear MHD simulation.

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arXiv2014

High Dispersion Spectroscopy of Solar-type Superflare Stars. II. Stellar Rotation, Starspots, and Chromospheric Activities

We conducted high dispersion spectroscopic observations of 50 superflare stars with Subaru/HDS. These 50 stars were selected from the solar-type superflare stars that we had discovered from the Kepler data. More than half (34 stars) of these 50 target superflare stars show no evidence of binarity, and we estimated stellar parameters of these 34 stars in our previous study (Notsu et al. 2015, hereafter called Paper I). According to our previous studies using Kepler data, superflare stars show quasi-periodic brightness variations whose amplitude (0.1-10\%) is much larger than that of the solar brightness variations (0.01-0.1\%) caused by the existence of sunspots on the rotating solar surface. In this study, we investigated whether these quasi-periodic brightness variations of superflare stars are explained by the rotation of a star with fairly large starspots, by using stellar parameters derived in Paper I. First, we confirmed that the value of the projected rotational velocity $v \sin i$ is consistent with the rotational velocity estimated from the period of the brightness variation. Next, we measured the intensity of Ca II infrared triplet lines and H$α$ line, good indicators of the stellar chromospheric activity, and compared them with other stellar properties. The intensity of Ca II infrared triplet lines indicates that the mean magnetic field strength ($\langle fB\rangle$) of the target superflare stars can be higher than that of the Sun. A correlation between the amplitude of the brightness variation and the intensity of Ca II triplet line was found. All the targets expected to have large starspots because of their large amplitude of the brightness variation show high chromospheric activities compared to the Sun. These results support that the brightness variation of superflare stars is due to the rotation with large starspots.

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arXiv2014

Superflare occurrence and energies on G-, K- and M-type dwarfs

Kepler data from G-, K- and M-type stars are used to study conditions that lead to superflares with energies above $10^{34} {\rm erg}$. From the 117,661 stars included, 380 show superflares with a total of 1690 such events. We study whether parameters, like effective temperature or the rotation rate, have any effect on the superflare occurrence rate or energy. With increasing effective temperature we observe a decrease in the superflare rate, which is analogous to the previous findings of a decrease in dynamo activity with increasing effective temperature. For slowly rotating stars, we find a quadratic increase of the mean occurrence rate with the rotation rate up to a critical point, after which the rate decreases linearly. Motivated by standard dynamo theory, we study the behavior of the relative starspot coverage, approximated as the relative brightness variation. For faster rotating stars, an increased fraction of stars shows higher spot coverage, which leads to higher superflare rates. A turbulent dynamo is used to study the dependence of the Ohmic dissipation as a proxy of the flare energy on the differential rotation or shear rate. The resulting statistics of the dissipation energy as a function of dynamo number is similar to the observed flare statistics as a function of the inverse Rossby number and shows similarly strong fluctuations. This supports the idea that superflares might well be possible for solar-type G stars.

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arXiv2014

A Chain of Winking (Oscillating) Filaments Triggered by an Invisible Extreme-Ultraviolet Wave

Winking (oscillating) filaments have been observed for many years. However, observations of successive winking filaments in one event have not been reported yet. In this paper, we present the observations of a chain of winking filaments and a subsequent jet that are observed right after the X2.1 are in AR11283. The event also produced an Extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave that has two components: upward dome-like wave (850 km/s) and lateral surface wave (554 km/s) which was very weak (or invisible) in imaging observations. By analyzing the temporal and spatial relationships between the oscillating filaments and the EUV waves, we propose that all the winking filaments and the jet were triggered by the weak (or invisible) lateral surface EUV wave. The oscillation of the filaments last for two or three cycles, and their periods, Doppler velocity amplitudes, and damping times are 11 - 22 minutes, 6 - 14 km/s, and 25 - 60 minutes, respectively. We further estimate the radial component magnetic field and the maximum kinetic energy of the filaments, and they are 5 - 10 Gauss and ~ 10^19 J, respectively. The estimated maximum kinetic energy is comparable to the minimum energy of ordinary EUV waves, suggesting that EUV waves can efficiently launch filament oscillations on their path. Based on our analysis results, we conclude that the EUV wave is a good agent for triggering and connecting successive but separated solar activities in the solar atmosphere, and it is also important for producing solar sympathetic eruptions.

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arXiv2014

Two Sun-like Superflare Stars Rotating as Slow as the Sun

We report on the results of high dispersion spectroscopy of two `superflare stars', KIC 9766237, and KIC 9944137 with Subaru/HDS. Superflare stars are G-type main sequence stars, but show gigantic flares compared to the Sun, which have been recently discovered in the data obtained with the Kepler spacecraft. Though most of these stars are thought to have a rotation period shorter than 10 days on the basis of photometric variabilities, the two targets of the present paper are estimated to have a rotation period of 21.8 d, and 25.3 d. Our spectroscopic results clarified that these stars have stellar parameters similar to those of the Sun in terms of the effective temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity. The projected rotational velocities derived by us are consistent with the photometric rotation period, indicating a fairy high inclination angle. The average strength of the magnetic field on the surface of these stars are estimated to be 1-20 G, by using the absorption line of Ca II 8542. We could not detect any hint of binarity in our spectra, although more data are needed to firmly rule out the presence of an unseen low-mass companion. These results claim that the spectroscopic properties of these superflare stars are very close to those of the Sun, and support the hypothesis that the Sun might cause a superflare.

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arXiv2013

Diffraction, Refraction, and Reflection of An Extreme-Ultraviolet Wave Observed during Its Interactions with Remote Active Regions

We present observations of the diffraction, refraction, and reflection of a global extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave propagating in the solar corona. These intriguing phenomena are observed when the wave interacts with two remote active regions, and they together exhibit the wave property of this EUV wave. When the wave approached AR11465, it became weaker and finally disappeared in the active region, but a few minutes latter a new wavefront appeared behind the active region, and it was not concentric with the incoming wave. In addition, a reflected wave was also observed simultaneously on the wave incoming side. When the wave approached AR11459, it transmitted through the active region directly and without reflection. The formation of the new wavefront and the transmission could be explained with diffraction and refraction effects, respectively. We propose that the different behaviors observed during the interactions may caused by different speed gradients at the boundaries of the two active regions. For the origin of the EUV wave, we find that it formed ahead of a group of expanding loops a few minutes after the start of the loops' expansion, which represents the initiation of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME). Based on these results, we conclude that the EUV wave should be a nonlinear magnetosonic wave or shock driven by the associated CME, which propagated faster than the ambient fast-mode speed and gradually slowed down to an ordinary linear wave. Our observations support the hybrid model that includes both fast wave and slow non-wave components.

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arXiv2013

Superflares on Solar Type Stars Observed with Kepler I. Statistical Properties of Superflares

By extending our previous study by Maehara et al. (2012), we searched for superflares on G-type dwarfs (solar type stars) using Kepler data for a longer period (500 days) than that (120 days) in our previous study. As a result, we found 1547 superflares on 279 G-type dwarfs, which are much more than previous 365 superflares on 148 stars. Using these new data, we studied the statistical properties of occurrence frequency of superflares, and basically confirmed the previous results, i.e., the occurrence frequency (dN/dE) of superflares vs flare energy (E) shows power-law distribution with dN/dE \propto E^{-α}, where α~ 2. It is interesting that this distribution is roughly on the same line as that for solar flares. In the case of the Sun-like stars (with surface temperature 5600-6000K and slowly rotating with a period longer than 10 days), the occurrence frequency of superflares with energy of 10^34 -10^35 erg is once in 800-5000 years. We also studied long term (500 days) stellar brightness variation of these superflare stars, and found that in some G-type dwarfs the occurrence frequency of superflares was extremely high, ~ 57 superflares in 500 days (i.e., once in 10 days). In the case of Sun-like stars, the most active stars show the frequency of one superflares (with 10^34 erg) in 100 days. There is evidence that these superflares have extremely large starspots with a size about 10 times larger than that of the largest sunspot. We argue that the physical origin of extremely high occurrence frequency of superflares in these stars may be attributed to the existence of extremely large starspots.

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arXiv2013

The Role of a Flux Rope Ejection in Three-dimensional Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of a Solar Flare

We investigated the dynamic evolution of a 3-dimensional (3D) flux rope eruption and magnetic reconnection process in a solar flare, by simply extending 2-dimensional (2D) resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulation model of solar flares with low $β$ plasma to 3D model. We succeeded in reproducing a current sheet and bi-directional reconnection outflows just below the flux rope during the eruption in our 3D simulations. We calculated four cases of a strongly twisted flux rope and a weakly twisted flux rope in 2D and 3D simulations. The time evolution of a weakly twisted flux rope in 3D simulation shows similar behaviors to 2D simulation, while a strongly twisted flux rope in 3D simulation shows clearly different time evolution from 2D simulation except for the initial phase evolution. The ejection speeds of both strongly and weakly twisted flux ropes in 3D simulations are larger than 2D simulations, and the reconnection rates in 3D cases are also larger than 2D cases. This indicates a positive feedback between the ejection speed of a flux rope and the reconnection rate even in the 3D simulation, and we conclude that the plasmoid-induced reconnection model can be applied to 3D. We also found that small scale plasmoids are formed inside a current sheet and make it turbulent. These small scale plasmoid ejections has role in locally increasing reconnection rate intermittently as observed in solar flares, coupled with a global eruption of a flux rope.

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