arXiv subjects

Ke-Wei Huang

Publications and source records attributed to Ke-Wei Huang.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

DelistBench: Evaluating Search-Enabled LLMs for Auditable Corporate-Event Database Completion

Financial institutions need an independent way to detect missing, stale, and misclassified corporate-event records in vendor databases. We introduce Search-to-Record, a database-assurance task in which search-enabled large language models reconstruct institution-defined event records from public sources for a known security universe and historical cutoff, and DelistBench, a 1,200-record benchmark for security-level delisting announcements. We evaluate five models in paired closed-book and web-enabled conditions. Web access raises announcement-date accuracy within seven days by 34.0 to 48.0 percentage points and event-status accuracy by approximately 2.8 to 21.7 points; the best system achieves 81.5% overall joint accuracy within seven days. Economy web systems achieve 75.9-78.3% overall joint accuracy within seven days at 4.5-6.6% of the API cost of the most expensive web system. Risk-based triage identifies low-error subsets, although the highest-coverage operating point still sends 27.3% of the balanced test set to review. The evaluation identifies web retrieval as the main source of timing gains and shows that low-cost systems can approach the best system's accuracy. Together, Search-to-Record, DelistBench, and the evaluation provide concrete deployment guidance: calibrate triage to local event prevalence and market mix, preserve positive-event recall, and route positive and ambiguous cases to targeted review.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

SPACE: Sample-cloud Predictive Adaptive Conformal Ellipsoids for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

Modern probabilistic time-series forecasters often express uncertainty through forecast samples. While typically converted into nominal prediction regions using empirical quantiles, these model-implied sets lack formal coverage guarantees and frequently deviate from nominal targets under distribution shift. Existing multivariate conformal methods can calibrate these regions online, but they typically estimate geometry from historical residuals using fixed or accumulating look-back windows. This reliance on the past limits their ability to exploit the instantaneous dependence structure of current predictions and leaves them vulnerable to stale-regime contamination. To address this, we propose SPACE, a conformal wrapper for sample-generating multivariate forecasters. SPACE constructs ellipsoidal joint prediction regions by estimating time-local covariance geometry directly from the current forecast sample cloud, calibrating the region's radius via a dynamic backward window-selection scheme. Across diverse multivariate datasets, probabilistic forecasters, and conformal baselines, SPACE consistently brings realized joint and rolling coverage closer to the nominal target, achieving superior coverage-efficiency tradeoffs relative to competing wrappers.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

FinDeepIndicator: Benchmarking Deep Research Agents in End-to-End Financial Indicator Construction

Financial indicators are essential tools for transforming raw financial data into interpretable measures for various downstream tasks, such as valuation, risk assessment, and economic analysis. However, existing financial benchmarks largely focus on answer-level accuracy and often assume that relevant data are already provided, leaving the assessment of the intermediate process of indicator construction underexplored. In this work, we propose FinDeepIndicator, the first benchmark dedicated to evaluating Deep Research (DR) agents in end-to-end financial indicator construction. Specifically, FinDeepIndicator evaluates DR agents across four stages in indicator construction: formula specification, data collection, indicator calculation, and answer generation, and covers fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic indicators organized into 21 fine-grained sub-categories. It contains 3,350 curated question-answer (QA) pairs derived from both U.S. and Chinese markets, 10 years of historical financial data, and 800 listed companies. Extensive experiments on search-equipped Large Language Models (LLMs) and DR agents show that, while LLMs generally perform well in formula specification, their accuracy drops substantially during data retrieval and numerical execution. DR agents consistently outperform search-equipped LLMs, yet remain unreliable in realistic financial analysis settings. These findings provide insights for developing more capable and trustworthy DR agents in finance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Who Wins Where? Conformal Model Comparison for Local Superiority

Standard model comparison is global, aggregating losses across the covariate space to declare a single winner. This can obscure heterogeneous performance, where different models are preferable in different regions. We introduce conformalized local model comparison, a split-sample framework for constructing calibrated local best-model maps. Given a model comparison score, such as the difference between two squared losses, the method uses three disjoint splits to fit competing models, estimate local centers and scales from out-of-sample scores, and conformally calibrate residual uncertainty. At a target point, the procedure declares a local winner only when a one-sided conformal bound excludes a tie, with the score's sign determining the favored model. We prove finite-sample marginal control for one-sided erroneous declarations on the realized future comparison score, establish pointwise consistency of the localized mean-score estimator away from tie boundaries, show that aggregate comparison can disagree sharply with the prevalence of local superiority, and derive a squared-loss bias--variance decomposition that clarifies how model structure affects local wins. Synthetic and real-data experiments show that the method recovers heterogeneous winner regions, abstains under uncertainty, and yields higher conditional gain than global selection.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures

Natural Language Processing is rapidly evolving into a primary instrument for Computational Social Science, with researchers increasingly using embeddings to measure latent constructs such as novelty, creativity, and bias. However, this transition faces a fundamental validity challenge: the ''Proxy Presumption,'' or the reliance on geometric properties (e.g., cosine distance) as direct measures of social concepts. We argue that without explicit validation, unsupervised representations remain entangled mixtures of the target construct ($C$) and confounding attributes ($Z$) like topic, style, and authorship. To bridge the gap between semantic embeddings and valid social measures, we introduce the Construct Validity Protocol (CVP). Drawing on causal representation learning and psychometrics, the CVP offers a rigorous pipeline from conceptualization to quantitative verification. We further propose Counterfactual Neutralization, a novel method using LLMs to reduce confounding in embedding space. By providing a standardized Validity Suite -- including tests for discriminant, incremental, and predictive validity -- this work offers the community a toolkit to transform heuristic proxies into robust, scientifically defensible instruments.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

FinStressTS: A Parametric Synthetic Benchmark for Time-Series Forecasting in Finance

Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps. Real-world benchmarks offer limited failure attribution: researchers can observe underperformance, but often cannot isolate why because mechanisms are unobservable and entangled. Real financial data reveal only one realized path, making it difficult to assess tail-risk calibration or data efficiency. We introduce FinStressTS, a mechanism-aware synthetic benchmark that links model behavior to controlled structural causes. FinStressTS comprises 30 diagnostic environments around six mechanism families: volatility clustering, multi-scale persistence, heavy-tailed shocks, regime switching, self-exciting jumps, and zero-inflated processes. We evaluate two tasks: point forecasting, using NMAE across five settings, and probabilistic forecasting, using CRPS under known data-generating mechanisms. We benchmark 15 models, from classical methods (HAR, VAR) to Transformer forecasters (PatchTST, iTransformer) and deep probabilistic architectures (DeepAR, TSFlow), and use learning curves to measure sample efficiency. Our evaluation reveals three insights. First, performance is mechanism-dependent: autoregressive and linear models are highly competitive, and often outperform Transformer-based models, in several volatility-, tail-, and jump-driven environments. Second, distributional alignment matters: parametric probabilistic models such as DeepAR calibrate well in stationary settings, while flexible models can help when distributions become multimodal or sparse. Third, neural models often require more data to match simple baselines, with larger gains mainly when learning latent regimes or complex distributions. FinStressTS provides an open framework for diagnosing failure modes and advancing risk-aware forecasting.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

FinDeepForecast: A Live Multi-Agent System for Benchmarking Deep Research Agents in Financial Forecasting

Deep Research (DR) Agents powered by advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) have fundamentally shifted the paradigm for completing complex research tasks. Yet, a comprehensive and live evaluation of their forecasting performance on real-world, research-oriented tasks in high-stakes domains (e.g., finance) remains underexplored. We introduce FinDeepForecast, the first live, end-to-end multi-agent system for automatically evaluating DR agents by continuously generating research-oriented financial forecasting tasks. This system is equipped with a dual-track taxonomy, enabling the dynamic generation of recurrent and non-recurrent forecasting tasks at both corporate and macro levels. With this system, we generate FinDeepForecastBench, a weekly evaluation benchmark over a ten-week horizon, encompassing 8 global economies and 1,314 listed companies, and evaluate 13 representative methods. Extensive experiments show that, while DR agents consistently outperform strong baselines, their performance still falls short of genuine forward-looking financial reasoning. We expect the proposed FinDeepForecast system to consistently facilitate future advancements of DR agents in research-oriented financial forecasting tasks. The benchmark and leaderboard are publicly available on the OpenFinArena Platform.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

FinDeepResearch: Evaluating Deep Research Agents in Rigorous Financial Analysis

Deep Research (DR) agents, powered by advanced Large Language Models (LLMs), have recently garnered increasing attention for their capability in conducting complex research tasks. However, existing literature lacks a rigorous and systematic evaluation of DR Agent's capabilities in critical research analysis. To address this gap, we first propose HisRubric, a novel evaluation framework with a hierarchical analytical structure and a fine-grained grading rubric for rigorously assessing DR agents' capabilities in corporate financial analysis. This framework mirrors the professional analyst's workflow, progressing from data recognition to metric calculation, and finally to strategic summarization and interpretation. Built on this framework, we construct a FinDeepResearch benchmark that comprises 64 listed companies from 8 financial markets across 4 languages, encompassing a total of 15,808 grading items. We further conduct extensive experiments on the FinDeepResearch using 16 representative methods, including 6 DR agents, 5 LLMs equipped with both deep reasoning and search capabilities, and 5 LLMs with deep reasoning capabilities only. The results reveal the strengths and limitations of these approaches across diverse capabilities, financial markets, and languages, offering valuable insights for future research and development. The benchmark and evaluation code is publicly available at https://OpenFinArena.com/.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Evaluating Large Language Models for Financial Reasoning: A CFA-Based Benchmark Study

The rapid advancement of large language models presents significant opportunities for financial applications, yet systematic evaluation in specialized financial contexts remains limited. This study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art LLMs using 1,560 multiple-choice questions from official mock exams across Levels I-III of CFA, most rigorous professional certifications globally that mirror real-world financial analysis complexity. We compare models distinguished by core design priorities: multi-modal and computationally powerful, reasoning-specialized and highly accurate, and lightweight efficiency-optimized. We assess models under zero-shot prompting and through a novel Retrieval-Augmented Generation pipeline that integrates official CFA curriculum content. The RAG system achieves precise domain-specific knowledge retrieval through hierarchical knowledge organization and structured query generation, significantly enhancing reasoning accuracy in professional financial certification evaluation. Results reveal that reasoning-oriented models consistently outperform others in zero-shot settings, while the RAG pipeline provides substantial improvements particularly for complex scenarios. Comprehensive error analysis identifies knowledge gaps as the primary failure mode, with minimal impact from text readability. These findings provide actionable insights for LLM deployment in finance, offering practitioners evidence-based guidance for model selection and cost-performance optimization.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Computer Vision and Metrics Learning for Hypothesis Testing: An Application of Q-Q Plot for Normality Test

This paper proposes a new deep-learning method to construct test statistics by computer vision and metrics learning. The application highlighted in this paper is applying computer vision on Q-Q plot to construct a new test statistic for normality test. To the best of our knowledge, there is no similar application documented in the literature. Traditionally, there are two families of approaches for verifying the probability distribution of a random variable. Researchers either subjectively assess the Q-Q plot or objectively use a mathematical formula, such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, to formally conduct a normality test. Graphical assessment by human beings is not rigorous whereas normality test statistics may not be accurate enough when the uniformly most powerful test does not exist. It may take tens of years for statistician to develop a new test statistic that is more powerful statistically. Our proposed method integrates four components based on deep learning: an image representation learning component of a Q-Q plot, a dimension reduction component, a metrics learning component that best quantifies the differences between two Q-Q plots for normality test, and a new normality hypothesis testing process. Our experimentation results show that the machine-learning-based test statistics can outperform several widely-used traditional normality tests. This study provides convincing evidence that the proposed method could objectively create a powerful test statistic based on Q-Q plots and this method could be modified to construct many more powerful test statistics for other applications in the future.

cs.CV↗