arXiv subjects

Kefeng Deng

Publications and source records attributed to Kefeng Deng.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Diffusion Models Bridge Deep Learning and Physics in ENSO Forecasting

Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep learning approaches, which often struggle to balance predictive accuracy with physical interpretability. Here, we introduce a data driven model for ENSO prediction based on conditional diffusion model. By constructing a probabilistic mapping from historical to future states using higher-order Markov chain, our model explicitly quantifies intrinsic uncertainty. The approach achieves extending lead times of state-of-the-art methods, resolving early development signals of the spring predictability barrier, and faithfully reproducing the spatiotemporal evolution of historical extreme events. The most striking implication is that our analysis reveals that the reverse diffusion process inherently encodes the classical recharge-discharge mechanism, with its operational dynamics exhibiting remarkable consistency with the governing principles of the van der Pol oscillator equation. These findings establish diffusion models as a new paradigm for ENSO forecasting, offering not only superior probabilistic skill but also a physically grounded theoretical framework that bridges data-driven prediction with deterministic dynamical systems, thereby advancing the study of complex geophysical processes.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

XiChen: A global weather observation-to-forecast machine learning system via four-dimensional variational gradient-guided flexible assimilation

Machine Learning (ML) has shown great promise in revolutionizing weather forecasting, yet most ML systems still rely on initial conditions generated by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. End-to-end ML models aim to eliminate this dependency, but they often rely on observation-specific encoders and require redesign or retraining when observation sources change, thereby limiting their operational robustness. Here, we introduce XiChen, a global weather observation-to-forecast ML system via four-dimensional variational (4DVar) gradient-guided flexible assimilation. We demonstrate that the gradient of the 4DVar cost function serves as a physically grounded interface that maps heterogeneous observations into a common state space. This novel formulation enables XiChen to flexibly assimilate diverse conventional and raw satellite observations while preserving physical consistency. Experiments show that the system achieves forecasting metrics competitive with operational NWP systems. This work provides a practical and physically consistent route toward operational ML-based global weather forecasting systems with heterogeneous and evolving observations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Supporting renewable energy planning and operation with data-driven high-resolution ensemble weather forecast

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these requirements, introducing challenges of scale inconsistency, process representation error, computation cost, and entanglement of distinct uncertainty sources from chaoticity, model bias, and large-scale forcing. We address these challenges by learning the climatological distribution of a target wind farm using its high-resolution numerical weather simulations. An optimal combination of this learned high-resolution climatological prior with coarse-grid large scale forecasts yields highly accurate, fine-grained, full-variable, large ensemble of weather pattern forecasts. Using observed meteorological records and wind turbine power outputs as references, the proposed methodology verifies advantageously compared to existing numerical/statistical forecasting-downscaling pipelines, regarding either deterministic/probabilistic skills or economic gains. Moreover, a 100-member, 10-day forecast with spatial resolution of 1 km and output frequency of 15 min takes < 1 hour on a moderate-end GPU, as contrast to $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ CPU hours for conventional numerical simulation. By drastically reducing computational costs while maintaining accuracy, our method paves the way for more efficient and reliable renewable energy planning and operation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Long-Term Prediction Accuracy Improvement of Data-Driven Medium-Range Global Weather Forecast

Long-term stability stands as a crucial requirement in data-driven medium-range global weather forecasting. Spectral bias is recognized as the primary contributor to instabilities, as data-driven methods difficult to learn small-scale dynamics. In this paper, we reveal that the universal mechanism for these instabilities is not only related to spectral bias but also to distortions brought by processing spherical data using conventional convolution. These distortions lead to a rapid amplification of errors over successive long-term iterations, resulting in a significant decline in forecast accuracy. To address this issue, a universal neural operator called the Spherical Harmonic Neural Operator (SHNO) is introduced to improve long-term iterative forecasts. SHNO uses the spherical harmonic basis to mitigate distortions for spherical data and uses gated residual spectral attention (GRSA) to correct spectral bias caused by spurious correlations across different scales. The effectiveness and merit of the proposed method have been validated through its application for spherical Shallow Water Equations (SWEs) and medium-range global weather forecasting. Our findings highlight the benefits and potential of SHNO to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

XiHe: A Data-Driven Model for Global Ocean Eddy-Resolving Forecasting

The leading operational Global Ocean Forecasting Systems (GOFSs) use physics-driven numerical forecasting models that solve the partial differential equations with expensive computation. Recently, specifically in atmosphere weather forecasting, data-driven models have demonstrated significant potential for speeding up environmental forecasting by orders of magnitude, but there is still no data-driven GOFS that matches the forecasting accuracy of the numerical GOFSs. In this paper, we propose the first data-driven 1/12{\deg} resolution global ocean eddy-resolving forecasting model named XiHe, which is established from the 25-year France Mercator Ocean International's daily GLORYS12 reanalysis data. XiHe is a hierarchical transformer-based framework coupled with two special designs. One is the land-ocean mask mechanism for focusing exclusively on the global ocean circulation. The other is the ocean-specific block for effectively capturing both local ocean information and global teleconnection. Extensive experiments are conducted under satellite observations, in situ observations, and the IV-TT Class 4 evaluation framework of the world's leading operational GOFSs from January 2019 to December 2020. The results demonstrate that XiHe achieves stronger forecast performance in all testing variables than existing leading operational numerical GOFSs including Mercator Ocean Physical SYstem (PSY4), Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS), BLUElinK OceanMAPS (BLK), and Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). Particularly, the accuracy of ocean current forecasting of XiHe out to 60 days is even better than that of PSY4 in just 10 days. Additionally, XiHe is able to forecast the large-scale circulation and the mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, it can make a 10-day forecast in only 0.35 seconds, which accelerates the forecast speed by thousands of times compared to the traditional numerical GOFSs.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

InfoBehavior: Self-supervised Representation Learning for Ultra-long Behavior Sequence via Hierarchical Grouping

E-commerce companies have to face abnormal sellers who sell potentially-risky products. Typically, the risk can be identified by jointly considering product content (e.g., title and image) and seller behavior. This work focuses on behavior feature extraction as behavior sequences can provide valuable clues for the risk discovery by reflecting the sellers' operation habits. Traditional feature extraction techniques heavily depend on domain experts and adapt poorly to new tasks. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised method InfoBehavior to automatically extract meaningful representations from ultra-long raw behavior sequences instead of the costly feature selection procedure. InfoBehavior utilizes Bidirectional Transformer as feature encoder due to its excellent capability in modeling long-term dependency. However, it is intractable for commodity GPUs because the time and memory required by Transformer grow quadratically with the increase of sequence length. Thus, we propose a hierarchical grouping strategy to aggregate ultra-long raw behavior sequences to length-processable high-level embedding sequences. Moreover, we introduce two types of pretext tasks. Sequence-related pretext task defines a contrastive-based training objective to correctly select the masked-out coarse-grained/fine-grained behavior sequences against other "distractor" behavior sequences; Domain-related pretext task designs a classification training objective to correctly predict the domain-specific statistical results of anomalous behavior. We show that behavior representations from the pre-trained InfoBehavior can be directly used or integrated with features from other side information to support a wide range of downstream tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that InfoBehavior significantly improves the performance of Product Risk Management and Intellectual Property Protection.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

TVDIM: Enhancing Image Self-Supervised Pretraining via Noisy Text Data

Among ubiquitous multimodal data in the real world, text is the modality generated by human, while image reflects the physical world honestly. In a visual understanding application, machines are expected to understand images like human. Inspired by this, we propose a novel self-supervised learning method, named Text-enhanced Visual Deep InfoMax (TVDIM), to learn better visual representations by fully utilizing the naturally-existing multimodal data. Our core idea of self-supervised learning is to maximize the mutual information between features extracted from multiple views of a shared context to a rational degree. Different from previous methods which only consider multiple views from a single modality, our work produces multiple views from different modalities, and jointly optimizes the mutual information for features pairs of intra-modality and inter-modality. Considering the information gap between inter-modality features pairs from data noise, we adopt a \emph{ranking-based} contrastive learning to optimize the mutual information. During evaluation, we directly use the pre-trained visual representations to complete various image classification tasks. Experimental results show that, TVDIM significantly outperforms previous visual self-supervised methods when processing the same set of images.

cs.CL↗