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Keiichi Maeda

Publications and source records attributed to Keiichi Maeda.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Monte Carlo population synthesis of post-common-envelope white dwarf binaries and type Ia supernova rate

Binary population synthesis (BPS) study provides a comprehensive way to understand evolutions of binaries and their end products. Close white dwarf (WD) binaries have crucial characteristics in examining in uence of yetunresolved physical parameters on the binary evolution. In this paper, we perform Monte Carlo BPS simulations, investigating the population of WD/main sequence (WD/MS) binaries and double WD binaries, with a publicly available binary star evolution code under 37 different assumptions on key physical processes and binary initial conditions. We considered different combinations of the binding energy parameter (lambda_g:considering gravitational energy only, lambda_b: considering both gravitational energy and internal energy, and lambda_e:considering gravitational energy, internal energy, and entropy of the envelope, the values of them derived with the MESA code), CE effciency, critical mass ratio, initial primary mass function and metallicity. We find that a larger number of post-CE WD/MS binaries in tight orbits are formed when the binding energy parameters is set by lambda_e than the cases adopting the other prescriptions. We also find effects of the other input parameters on orbital period and mass distributions of post-CE WD/MS binaries as well. Containing at least one CO WD, the double WD system evolved from WD/MS binaries may explode as type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) by merging. In this work, we also investigate a frequency of two WD mergers and compare it to the SNe Ia rate.

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Circumstellar and explosion properties of Type Ibn supernovae

We investigate circumstellar and explosion properties of Type Ibn supernovae (SNe) by analyzing their bolometric light curves. Bolometric light curves of Type Ibn SNe generally have a large contrast between peak luminosity and late-phase luminosity, which is much larger than those of 56Ni-powered SNe. Thus, most of them are likely powered by the interaction between SN ejecta and dense circumstellar media. In addition, Type Ibn SNe decline much faster than Type IIn SNe, and this indicates that the interaction in Type Ibn SNe ceases earlier than in Type IIn SNe. Thus, we argue that Type Ibn SN progenitors experience high mass-loss rates in a short period just before explosion, while Type IIn SN progenitors have high mass-loss rates sustained for a long time. Furthermore, we show that rise time and peak luminosity of Type Ibn and Type IIn SNe are similar and thus, they have similar explosion properties and circumstellar density. The similar circumstellar density in the two kinds of SNe may indicate that mass-loss rates of Type Ibn SN progenitors are generally higher than those of Type IIn as the wind velocities inferred from narrow spectral components are generally higher in Type Ibn SNe. We also show that 56Ni mass and explosion energy of Type Ibn SNe may be smaller than those of other stripped-envelope SNe, probably because they tend to suffer large fallback or some of them may not even be terminal stellar explosions.

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OISTER Optical and Near-Infrared Observations of the Super-Chandrasekhar Supernova Candidate SN 2012dn: Dust Emission from the Circumstellar Shell

We present extensively dense observations of the super-Chandrasekhar supernova (SC SN) candidate SN 2012dn from $-11$ to $+140$ days after the date of its $B$-band maximum in the optical and near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths conducted through the OISTER ToO program. The NIR light curves and color evolutions up to 35 days after the $B$-band maximum provided an excellent match with those of another SC SN 2009dc, providing a further support to the nature of SN 2012dn as a SC SN. We found that SN 2012dn exhibited strong excesses in the NIR wavelengths from $30$ days after the $B$-band maximum. The $H$ and $K_{s}$-band light curves exhibited much later maximum dates at $40$ and $70$ days after the $B$-band maximum, respectively, compared with those of normal SNe Ia. The $H$ and $K_{s}$-band light curves subtracted by those of SN 2009dc displayed plateaued evolutions, indicating a NIR echo from the surrounding dust. The distance to the inner boundary of the dust shell is limited to be $4.8 - 6.4\times10^{-2}$ pc. No emission lines were found in its early phase spectrum, suggesting that the ejecta-CSM interaction could not occur. On the other hand, we found no signature that strongly supports the scenario of dust formation. The mass loss rate of the pre-explosion system is estimated to be $10^{-6}-10^{-5}$ M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$, assuming that the wind velocity of the system is $10-100$ km~s$^{-1}$, which suggests that the progenitor of SN 2012dn could be a recurrent nova system. We conclude that the progenitor of this SC SN could be explained by the single-degenerate scenario.

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The critical mass ratio of double white dwarf binaries for violent merger-induced Type Ia supernova explosions

Mergers of carbon-oxygen (CO) white dwarfs (WDs) are considered as one of the potential progenitors of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Recent hydrodynamical simulations showed that the less massive (secondary) WD violently accretes onto the more massive (primary) one, carbon detonation occurs, the detonation wave propagates through the primary, and the primary finally explodes as a sub-Chandrasekhar mass SN Ia. Such an explosion mechanism is called the violent merger scenario. Based on the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of merging CO WDs, we derived more stringent critical mass ratio (qcr) leading to the violent merger scenario than the previous results. We conclude that this difference mainly comes from the differences in the initial condition, synchronously spinning of WDs or not. Using our new results, we estimated the brightness distribution of SNe Ia in the violent merger scenario and compared it with previous studies. We found that our new qcr does not significantly affect the brightness distribution. We present the direct outcome immediately following CO WD mergers for various primary masses and mass ratios. We also discussed the final fate of the central system of the bipolar planetary nebula Henize 2-428, which was recently suggested to be a double CO WD system whose total mass exceeds the Chandrasekhar-limiting mass, merging within the Hubble time. Even considering the uncertainties in the proposed binary parameters, we concluded that the final fate of this system is almost certainly a sub-Chandrasekhar mass SN Ia in the violent merger scenario.

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SN~2012cg: Evidence for Interaction Between a Normal Type Ia Supernova and a Non-Degenerate Binary Companion

We report evidence for excess blue light from the Type Ia supernova SN 2012cg at fifteen and sixteen days before maximum B-band brightness. The emission is consistent with predictions for the impact of the supernova on a non-degenerate binary companion. This is the first evidence for emission from a companion to a SN Ia. Sixteen days before maximum light, the B-V color of SN 2012cg is 0.2 mag bluer than for other normal SN~Ia. At later times, this supernova has a typical SN Ia light curve, with extinction-corrected M_B = -19.62 +/- 0.02 mag and Delta m_{15}(B) = 0.86 +/- 0.02. Our data set is extensive, with photometry in 7 filters from 5 independent sources. Early spectra also show the effects of blue light, and high-velocity features are observed at early times. Near maximum, the spectra are normal with a silicon velocity v_{Si} = -10,500$ km s^{-1}. Comparing the early data with models by Kasen (2010) favors a main-sequence companion of about 6 solar masses. It is possible that many other SN Ia have main-sequence companions that have eluded detection because the emission from the impact is fleeting and faint.

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Spatially-Resolved Spectroscopy of a Balmer-Dominated Shock in the Cygnus Loop: An Extremely Thin Cosmic-Ray Precursor?

We present high-resolution long-slit spectroscopy of a Balmer-dominated shock in the northeastern limb of the Cygnus Loop with the Subaru high dispersion spectrograph. By setting the slit angle along the shock normal, we investigate variations of the flux and profile of the H-alpha line from preshock to postshock regions with a spatial resolution of about 4 times 10^{15} cm. The H-alpha line profile can be represented by a narrow (28.9+/-0.7 km/s) Gaussian in a diffuse region ahead of the shock, i.e., a photoionization precursor, and narrow (33.1+/-0.2 km/s) plus broad (130-230 km/s) Gaussians at the shock itself. We find that the width of the narrow component abruptly increases up to 33.1+/-0.2 km/s, or 38.8+/-0.4 km/s if we eliminate projected emission originating from the photoionization precursor, in an unresolved thin layer (< 4 times 10^{15} cm at a distance of 540 pc) at the shock. We show that the sudden broadening can be best explained by heating via damping of Alfven waves in a thin cosmic-ray precursor, although other possibilities are not fully ruled out. The thickness of the cosmic-ray precursor in the Cygnus Loop (a soft gamma-ray emitter) is an order of magnitude thinner than that in Tycho's Knot g (a hard gamma-ray emitter), which may be caused by different energy distribution of accelerated particles between the two sources. In this context, systematic studies might reveal a positive correlation between the thickness of the cosmic-ray precursor and the hardness of the cosmic-ray energy distribution.

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Mass ejection by pulsational pair instability in very massive stars and implications for luminous supernovae

Massive stars having a CO core of $\sim$40-60 M$_\odot$ experience pulsational pair-instability (PPI) after carbon-burning. This instability induces strong pulsations of the whole star and a part of outer envelope is ejected. We investigate the evolution and mass ejection of metal-poor very massive stars which experience PPI. We use stellar models with initial masses of 140, 200, and 250 M$_\odot$ and the metallicity Z=0.004. Their masses decrease to 54.09, 58.65, and 61.03 M$_\odot$ before the neon-burning owing to mass-loss and He mass fraction at the surface becomes about 20%. During the PPI period of $\sim$1-2000 yr, they experience six, four, and three pulsations, respectively. The larger CO-core model has the longer PPI period and ejects the larger amount of mass. Since almost all surface He has been lost by the pulsations, these stars become Type Ic supernovae if they explode. Light curves during the PPI stage and supernovae are investigated and are implicated in luminous supernovae. The luminosity created by the interaction of different PPI ejecta becomes $M_{\rm bol} \sim -16$ to $-20$. The interaction between the circumstellar shell ejected by PPI and the supernova ejecta can be more luminous. These luminous transients could be an origin of Type I superluminous supernovae and supernovae with precursor.

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A self-consistent analytical magnetar model: The luminosity of $γ$-ray burst supernovae is powered by radioactivity

We present an analytical model that considers energy arising from a magnetar central engine. The results of fitting this model to the optical and X-ray light curves (LCs) of five long-duration $γ$-ray bursts (LGRBs) and two ultra-long GRBs (ULGRBs), including their associated supernovae (SNe), show that emission from a magnetar central engine cannot be solely responsible for powering an LGRB-SN. While the early AG-dominated phase can be well described with our model, the predicted SN luminosity is underluminous by a factor of $3-17$. We use this as compelling evidence that additional sources of heating must be present to power an LGRB-SN, which we argue must be radioactive heating. Our self-consistent modelling approach was able to successfully describe all phases of ULGRB 111209A / SN 2011kl, from the early afterglow to the later SN, where we determined for the magnetar central engine a magnetic field strength of $1.1-1.3\times10^{15}$ G, an initial spin period of $11.5-13.0$ ms, a spin-down time of $4.8-6.5$ d, and an initial energy of $1.2-1.6\times10^{50}$ erg. These values are entirely consistent with those determined by other authors. The luminosity of a magnetar-powered SN is directly related to how long the central engine is active, where central engines with longer durations give rise to brighter SNe. The spin-down timescales of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) are of order months to years, which provides a natural explanation as to why SN 2011kl was less luminous than SLSNe that are also powered by emission from magnetar central engines.

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A Luminous Peculiar Type Ia Supernova SN 2011hr: More Like SN 1991T or SN 2007if?

Photometric and spectroscopic observations of a slowly declining, luminous Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) SN 2011hr in the starburst galaxy NGC 2691 are presented. SN 2011hr is found to peak at $M_{B}=-19.84 \pm 0.40\,\rm{mag}$, with a post-maximum decline rate $Δ$m$_{15}$(B) = 0.92 $\pm$ 0.03\,$\rm{mag}$. From the maximum-light bolometric luminosity, $L=(2.30 \pm 0.90) \times 10^{43}\,\rm{erg\,s^{-1}}$, we estimate the mass of synthesized \Nifs\ in SN 2011hr to be $M(\rm{^{56}Ni})=1.11 \pm 0.43\,M_{\sun}$. SN 2011hr appears more luminous than SN 1991T at around maximum light, and the absorption features from its intermediate-mass elements (IMEs) are noticeably weaker than the latter at similar phases. Spectral modeling suggests that SN 2011hr has the IMEs of $\sim$\,0.07 M$_{\sun}$ in the outer ejecta, which is much lower than the typical value of normal SNe Ia (i.e., 0.3 -- 0.4 M$_{\sun}$) and is also lower than the value of SN 1991T (i.e., $\sim$\,0.18 M$_{\sun}$). These results indicate that SN 2011hr may arise from a Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf progenitor that experienced a more efficient burning process in the explosion. Nevertheless, it is still possible that SN 2011hr may serve as a transitional object connecting the SN 1991T-like SNe Ia with the superluminous subclass like SN 2007if given that the latter also shows very weak IMEs at all phases.

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Probing Final Stages of Stellar Evolution with X-Ray Observations of SN 2013ej

Massive stars shape their surroundings with mass loss from winds during their lifetimes. Fast ejecta from supernovae, from these massive stars, shocks this circumstellar medium. Emission generated by this interaction provides a window into the final stages of stellar evolution, by probing the history of mass loss from the progenitor. Here we use Chandra and Swift x-ray observations of the type II-P/L SN 2013ej to probe the history of mass loss from its progenitor. We model the observed x-rays as emission from both heated circumstellar matter and supernova ejecta. The circumstellar density profile probed by the supernova shock reveals a history of steady mass loss during the final 400 years. The inferred mass loss rate of $3 \times 10^{-6} {\rm \; M_\odot \; yr^{-1}}$ points back to a 14 $M_\odot$ progenitor. Soon after the explosion we find significant absorption of reverse shock emission by a cooling shell. The column depth of this shell observed in absorption provides an independent and consistent measurement of the circumstellar density seen in emission. We also determine the efficiency of cosmic ray acceleration from x-rays produced by Inverse Compton scattering of optical photons by relativistic electrons. Only about 1 percent of the thermal energy is used to accelerate electrons. Our x-ray observations and modeling provides stringent tests for models of massive stellar evolution and micro-physics of shocks.

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The Progenitor of the Type IIb SN 2008ax Revisited

Hubble Space Telescope observations of the site of the supernova (SN) 2008ax obtained in 2011 and 2013 reveal that the possible progenitor object detected in pre-explosion images was in fact multiple. Four point sources are resolved in the new, higher-resolution images. We identify one of the sources with the fading SN. The other three objects are consistent with single supergiant stars. We conclude that their light contaminated the previously identified progenitor candidate. After subtraction of these stars, the progenitor appears to be significantly fainter and bluer than previously measured. Post-explosion photometry at the SN location indicates that the progenitor object has disappeared. If single, the progenitor is compatible with a supergiant star of B to mid-A spectral type, while a Wolf-Rayet (WR) star would be too luminous in the ultraviolet to account for the observations. Moreover, our hydrodynamical modelling shows the pre-explosion mass was $4-5$ $M_\odot$ and the radius was $30-50$ $R_\odot$, which is incompatible with a WR progenitor. We present a possible interacting binary progenitor computed with our evolutionary models that reproduces all the observational evidence. A companion star as luminous as an O9-B0 main-sequence star may have remained after the explosion.

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The Silicon and Calcium High-Velocity Features in Type Ia Supernovae from Early to Maximum Phases

The high-velocity features (HVFs) in optical spectra of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are examined with a large sample including very early-time spectra (e.g., t < -7 days). Multiple Gaussian fits are applied to examine the HVFs and their evolutions, using constraints on expansion velocities for the same species (i.e., SiII 5972 and SiII 6355). We find that strong HVFs tend to appear in SNe Ia with smaller decline rates (e.g., dm15(B)<1.4 mag), clarifying that the finding by Childress et al. (2014) for the Ca-HVFs in near-maximum-light spectra applies both to the Si-HVFs and Ca-HVFs in the earlier phase. The Si-HVFs seem to be more common in fast-expanding SNe Ia, which is different from the earlier result that the Ca-HVFs are associated with SNe Ia having slower SiII 6355 velocities at maximum light (i.e., Vsi). This difference can be due to that the HVFs in fast-expanding SNe Ia usually disappear more rapidly and are easily blended with the photospheric components when approaching the maximum light. Moreover, SNe Ia with both stronger HVFs at early phases and larger Vsi are found to have noticeably redder B-V colors and occur preferentially in the inner regions of their host galaxies, while those with stronger HVFs but smaller Vsi show opposite tendencies, suggesting that these two subclasses have different explosion environments and their HVFs may have different origins. We further examine the relationships between the absorption features of SiII 6355 and CaII IR lines, and find that their photospheric components are well correlated in velocity and strength but the corresponding HVFs show larger scatter. These results cannot be explained with ionization and/or thermal processes alone, and different mechanisms are required for the creation of HVF-forming region in SNe Ia.

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Constraining the Amount of Circumstellar Matter and Dust around Type Ia Supernovae through Near-Infrared Echoes

The circumstellar (CS) environment is key to understanding progenitors of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), as well as the origin of a peculiar extinction property toward SNe Ia for cosmological application. It has been suggested that multiple scatterings of SN photons by CS dust may explain the non-standard reddening law. In this paper, we examine the effect of re-emission of SN photons by CS dust in the infrared (IR) wavelength regime. This effect allows the observed IR light curves to be used as a constraint on the position/size and the amount of CS dust. The method was applied to observed near-infrared (NIR) SN Ia samples; meaningful upper limits on the CS dust mass were derived even under conservative assumptions. We thereby clarify a difficulty associated with the CS dust scattering model as a general explanation for the peculiar reddening law, while it may still apply to a sub-sample of highly reddened SNe Ia. For SNe Ia in general, the environment at the interstellar scale appears to be responsible for the non-standard extinction law. Furthermore, deeper limits can be obtained using the standard nature of SN Ia NIR light curves. In this application, an upper limit of Mdot ~10^{-8}-10^{-7} Msun/yr (for the wind velocity of ~10 km/s) is obtained for a mass loss rate from a progenitor up to ~0.01 pc, and Mdot ~10^{-7}-10^{-6} Msun/yr up to ~0.1 pc.

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Kepler's Supernova: An Overluminous Type Ia Event Interacting with a Massive Circumstellar Medium at a Very Late Phase

We have analyzed XMM-Newton, Chandra, and Suzaku observations of Kepler's supernova remnant (SNR) to investigate the properties of both the SN ejecta and the circumstellar medium (CSM). For comparison, we have also analyzed two similarly-aged, ejecta-dominated SNRs: Tycho's SNR, thought to be the remnant of a typical Type Ia SN, and SNR 0509-67.5 in the Large Magellanic Cloud, thought to be the remnant of an overluminous Type Ia SN. By simply comparing the X-ray spectra, we find that line intensity ratios of iron-group elements (IGE) to intermediate-mass elements (IME) for Kepler's SNR and SNR 0509-67.5 are much higher than those for Tycho's SNR. We therefore argue that Kepler is the product of an overluminous Type Ia SN. This inference is supported by our spectral modeling, which reveals the IGE and IME masses respectively to be ~0.95 M_sun and ~0.12 M_sun (Kepler's SNR), ~0.75 M_sun and ~0.34 M_sun (SNR 0509-67.5), and ~0.35 M_sun and ~0.70 M_sun (Tycho's SNR). We find that the CSM component in Kepler's SNR consists of tenuous diffuse gas (~0.3 M_sun) present throughout the entire remnant, plus dense knots (~0.035 M_sun). Both of these components have an elevated N abundance (N/H ~ 4 times the solar value), suggesting that they originate from CNO-processed material from the progenitor system. The mass of the diffuse CSM allows us to infer the pre-SN mass-loss rate to be ~1.5e-5 (V_w/10 km/s) M_sun/yr, in general agreement with results from recent hydrodynamical simulations. Since the dense knots have slow proper motions and relatively small ionization timescales, they were likely located a few pc away from the progenitor system. Therefore, we argue that Kepler's SN was an overluminous event that started to interact with massive CSM a few hundred years after the explosion. This supports the possible link between overluminous SNe and the so-called "Ia-CSM" SNe.

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A systematic study of carbon-oxygen white dwarf mergers: mass combinations for Type Ia supernovae

Mergers of two carbon-oxygen (CO) white dwarfs (WDs) have been considered as progenitors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations, previous studies claimed that mergers of CO WDs lead to an SN Ia explosion either in the dynamical merger phase or stationary rotating merger remnant phase. However, the mass range of CO WDs that lead to an SN Ia has not been clearly identified yet. In the present work, we perform systematic SPH merger simulations for the WD masses ranging from $0.5~M_{\odot}$ to $1.1~M_{\odot}$ with higher resolutions than the previous systematic surveys and examine whether or not carbon burning occurs dynamically or quiescently in each phase. We further study the possibility of SN Ia explosion and estimate the mass range of CO WDs that lead to an SN Ia. We found that when the both WDs are massive, i.e., in the mass range of $0.9~M_{\odot} {\le} M_{1,2} {\le} 1.1~M_{\odot}$, they can explode as an SN Ia in the merger phase. On the other hand, when the more massive WD is in the range of $0.7~M_{\odot} {\le} M_{1} {\le} 0.9~M_{\odot}$ and the total mass exceeds $1.38~M_{\odot}$, they can finally explode in the stationary rotating merger remnant phase. We estimate the contribution of CO WD mergers to the entire SN Ia rate in our galaxy to be of ${\lt} 9\%$. So, it might be difficult to explain all galactic SNe Ia by CO WD mergers.

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OISTER Optical and Near-Infrared Observations of Type Iax Supernova 2012Z

We report observations of the Type Iax supernova (SN Iax) 2012Z at optical and near-infrared wavelengths from immediately after the explosion until $\sim$ $260$ days after the maximum luminosity using the Optical and Infrared Synergetic Telescopes for Education and Research (OISTER) Target-of-Opportunity (ToO) program and the Subaru telescope. We found that the near-infrared (NIR) light curve evolutions and color evolutions are similar to those of SNe Iax 2005hk and 2008ha. The NIR absolute magnitudes ($M_{J}\sim-18.1$ mag and $M_{H}\sim-18.3$ mag) and the rate of decline of the light curve ($Δ$ $m_{15}$($B$)$=1.6 \pm 0.1$ mag) are very similar to those of SN 2005hk ($M_{J}\sim-17.7$ mag, $M_{H}\sim$$-18.0$ mag, and $Δ$ $m_{15}$($B$)$\sim1.6$ mag), yet differ significantly from SNe 2008ha and 2010ae ($M_{J}\sim-14 - -15$ mag and $Δ$ $m_{15}$($B$)$\sim2.4-2.7$ mag). The estimated rise time is $12.0 \pm 3.0$ days, which is significantly shorter than that of SN 2005hk or any other Ia SNe. The rapid rise indicates that the $^{56}$Ni distribution may extend into the outer layer or that the effective opacity may be lower than that in normal SNe Ia. The late-phase spectrum exhibits broader emission lines than those of SN 2005hk by a factor of 6--8. Such high velocities of the emission lines indicate that the density profile of the inner ejecta extends more than that of SN 2005hk. We argue that the most favored explosion scenario is a `failed deflagration' model, although the pulsational delayed detonations is not excluded.

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Hydrodynamical evolution of merging carbon-oxygen white dwarfs: their pre-supernova structure and observational counterparts

We perform smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations for merging binary carbon-oxygen (CO) white dwarfs (WDs) with masses of $1.1$ and $1.0$ $M_\odot$, until the merger remnant reaches a dynamically steady state. Using these results, we assess whether the binary could induce a thermonuclear explosion, and whether the explosion could be observed as a type Ia supernova (SN Ia). We investigate three explosion mechanisms: a helium-ignition following the dynamical merger (`helium-ignited violent merger model'), a carbon-ignition (`carbon-ignited violent merger model'), and an explosion following the formation of the Chandrasekhar mass WD (`Chandrasekhar mass model'). An explosion of the helium-ignited violent merger model is possible, while we predict that the resulting SN ejecta are highly asymmetric since its companion star is fully intact at the time of the explosion. The carbon-ignited violent merger model can also lead to an explosion. However, the envelope of the exploding WD spreads out to $\sim 0.1R_\odot$; it is much larger than that inferred for SN 2011fe ($< 0.1R_\odot $) while much smaller than that for SN 2014J ($\sim 1R_\odot$). For the particular combination of the WD masses studied in this work, the Chandrasekhar mass model is not successful to lead to an SN Ia explosion. Besides these assessments, we investigate the evolution of unbound materials ejected through the merging process (`merger ejecta'), assuming a case where the SN Ia explosion is not triggered by the helium- or carbon-ignition during the merger. The merger ejecta interact with the surrounding interstellar medium, and form a shell. The shell has a bolometric luminosity of more than $2 \times 10^{35}$ ergs$^{-1}$ lasting for $\sim 2 \times 10^4$ yr. If this is the case, Milky Way should harbor about $10$ such shells at any given time.

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Variable Selection for Modeling the Absolute Magnitude at Maximum of Type Ia Supernovae

We discuss what is an appropriate set of explanatory variables in order to predict the absolute magnitude at the maximum of Type Ia supernovae. In order to have a good prediction, the error for future data, which is called the "generalization error," should be small. We use cross-validation in order to control the generalization error and LASSO-type estimator in order to choose the set of variables. This approach can be used even in the case that the number of samples is smaller than the number of candidate variables. We studied the Berkeley supernova database with our approach. Candidates of the explanatory variables include normalized spectral data, variables about lines, and previously proposed flux-ratios, as well as the color and light-curve widths. As a result, we confirmed the past understanding about Type Ia supernova: i) The absolute magnitude at maximum depends on the color and light-curve width. ii) The light-curve width depends on the strength of Si II. Recent studies have suggested to add more variables in order to explain the absolute magnitude. However, our analysis does not support to add any other variables in order to have a better generalization error.

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