arXiv subjects

Keisuke Hirano

Publications and source records attributed to Keisuke Hirano.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Asymptotic Representations for Sequential Decisions, Adaptive Experiments, and Batched Bandits

We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect the observation of variables in later stages, our asymptotic representation characterizes all limit distributions attainable through a joint choice of an adaptive design rule and statistics applied to the adaptively generated data. This facilitates local power analysis of tests, comparison of adaptive treatments rules, and other analyses of batchwise sequential statistical decision rules.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Selecting Experimental Sites for External Validity

Policy decisions often depend on evidence generated elsewhere. We take a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to choosing where to experiment to optimize external validity. We frame external validity through a policy lens, developing a prior specification for the joint distribution of site-level treatment effects using a microeconometric structural model and allowing for other sources of heterogeneity. With data from South Asia, we show that, relative to basing policies on experiments in optimal sites, large efficiency losses result from instead using evidence from randomly-selected sites or, conversely, from sites with the largest expected treatment effects.

econ.GN↗