arXiv subjects

Keith Burghardt

Publications and source records attributed to Keith Burghardt.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Using Emotion Embeddings to Transfer Knowledge Between Emotions, Languages, and Annotation Formats

The need for emotional inference from text continues to diversify as more and more disciplines integrate emotions into their theories and applications. These needs include inferring different emotion types, handling multiple languages, and different annotation formats. A shared model between different configurations would enable the sharing of knowledge and a decrease in training costs, and would simplify the process of deploying emotion recognition models in novel environments. In this work, we study how we can build a single model that can transition between these different configurations by leveraging multilingual models and Demux, a transformer-based model whose input includes the emotions of interest, enabling us to dynamically change the emotions predicted by the model. Demux also produces emotion embeddings, and performing operations on them allows us to transition to clusters of emotions by pooling the embeddings of each cluster. We show that Demux can simultaneously transfer knowledge in a zero-shot manner to a new language, to a novel annotation format and to unseen emotions. Code is available at https://github.com/gchochla/Demux-MEmo .

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Analyzing urban scaling laws in the United States over 115 years

The scaling relations between city attributes and population are emergent and ubiquitous aspects of urban growth. Quantifying these relations and understanding their theoretical foundation, however, is difficult due to the challenge of defining city boundaries and a lack of historical data to study city dynamics over time and space. To address this issue, we analyze scaling between city infrastructure and population across 857 United States metropolitan areas over an unprecedented 115 years using dasymetrically refined historical population estimates, historical urban road network models, and multi-temporal settlement data to define dynamic city boundaries based on settlement density. We demonstrate the clearest evidence that urban scaling exponents can closely match theoretical models over a century if cities are defined as dense settlement patches. Despite the close quantitative agreement with theory, the empirical scaling relations unexpectedly vary across regions. Our analysis of scaling coefficients, meanwhile, reveals that a city in 2015 uses more developed land and kilometers of road than a city with a similar population in 1900, which has serious implications for urban development and impacts on the local environment. Overall, our results offer a new way to study urban systems based on novel, geohistorical data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Decomposing the Fundamentals of Creepy Stories

Fear is a universal concept; people crave it in urban legends, scary movies, and modern stories. Open questions remain, however, about why these stories are scary and more generally what scares people. In this study, we explore these questions by analyzing tens of thousands of scary stories on forums (known as subreddits) in a social media website, Reddit. We first explore how writing styles have evolved to keep these stories fresh before we analyze the stable core techniques writers use to make stories scary. We find that writers have changed the themes of their stories over years from haunted houses to school-related themes, body horror, and diseases. Yet some features remain stable; words associated with pseudo-human nouns, such as clown or devil are more common in scary stories than baselines. In addition, we collect a range of datasets that annotate sentences containing fear. We use these data to develop a high-accuracy fear detection neural network model, which is used to quantify where people express fear in scary stories. We find that sentences describing fear, and words most often seen in scary stories, spike at particular points in a story, possibly as a way to keep the readers on the edge of their seats until the story's conclusion. These results provide a new understanding of how authors cater to their readers, and how fear may manifest in stories.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Detecting Anti-Vaccine Users on Twitter

Vaccine hesitancy, which has recently been driven by online narratives, significantly degrades the efficacy of vaccination strategies, such as those for COVID-19. Despite broad agreement in the medical community about the safety and efficacy of available vaccines, a large number of social media users continue to be inundated with false information about vaccines and are indecisive or unwilling to be vaccinated. The goal of this study is to better understand anti-vaccine sentiment by developing a system capable of automatically identifying the users responsible for spreading anti-vaccine narratives. We introduce a publicly available Python package capable of analyzing Twitter profiles to assess how likely that profile is to share anti-vaccine sentiment in the future. The software package is built using text embedding methods, neural networks, and automated dataset generation and is trained on several million tweets. We find this model can accurately detect anti-vaccine users up to a year before they tweet anti-vaccine hashtags or keywords. We also show examples of how text analysis helps us understand anti-vaccine discussions by detecting moral and emotional differences between anti-vaccine spreaders on Twitter and regular users. Our results will help researchers and policy-makers understand how users become anti-vaccine and what they discuss on Twitter. Policy-makers can utilize this information for better targeted campaigns that debunk harmful anti-vaccination myths.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Quantifying How Hateful Communities Radicalize Online Users

While online social media offers a way for ignored or stifled voices to be heard, it also allows users a platform to spread hateful speech. Such speech usually originates in fringe communities, yet it can spill over into mainstream channels. In this paper, we measure the impact of joining fringe hateful communities in terms of hate speech propagated to the rest of the social network. We leverage data from Reddit to assess the effect of joining one type of echo chamber: a digital community of like-minded users exhibiting hateful behavior. We measure members' usage of hate speech outside the studied community before and after they become active participants. Using Interrupted Time Series (ITS) analysis as a causal inference method, we gauge the spillover effect, in which hateful language from within a certain community can spread outside that community by using the level of out-of-community hate word usage as a proxy for learned hate. We investigate four different Reddit sub-communities (subreddits) covering three areas of hate speech: racism, misogyny and fat-shaming. In all three cases we find an increase in hate speech outside the originating community, implying that joining such community leads to a spread of hate speech throughout the platform. Moreover, users are found to pick up this new hateful speech for months after initially joining the community. We show that the harmful speech does not remain contained within the community. Our results provide new evidence of the harmful effects of echo chambers and the potential benefit of moderating them to reduce adoption of hateful speech.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Inferring topological transitions in pattern-forming processes with self-supervised learning

The identification and classification of transitions in topological and microstructural regimes in pattern-forming processes are critical for understanding and fabricating microstructurally precise novel materials in many application domains. Unfortunately, relevant microstructure transitions may depend on process parameters in subtle and complex ways that are not captured by the classic theory of phase transition. While supervised machine learning methods may be useful for identifying transition regimes, they need labels which require prior knowledge of order parameters or relevant structures describing these transitions. Motivated by the universality principle for dynamical systems, we instead use a self-supervised approach to solve the inverse problem of predicting process parameters from observed microstructures using neural networks. This approach does not require predefined, labeled data about the different classes of microstructural patterns or about the target task of predicting microstructure transitions. We show that the difficulty of performing the inverse-problem prediction task is related to the goal of discovering microstructure regimes, because qualitative changes in microstructural patterns correspond to changes in uncertainty predictions for our self-supervised problem. We demonstrate the value of our approach by automatically discovering transitions in microstructural regimes in two distinct pattern-forming processes: the spinodal decomposition of a two-phase mixture and the formation of concentration modulations of binary alloys during physical vapor deposition of thin films. This approach opens a promising path forward for discovering and understanding unseen or hard-to-discern transition regimes, and ultimately for controlling complex pattern-forming processes.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2022

Emotion Regulation and Dynamics of Moral Concerns During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended daily life around the globe, posing a threat to public health. Intuitively, we expect that surging cases and deaths would lead to fear, distress and other negative emotions. However, using state-of-the-art methods to measure sentiment, emotions, and moral concerns in social media messages posted in the early stage of the pandemic, we see a counter-intuitive rise in positive affect. We hypothesize that the increase of positivity is associated with a decrease of uncertainty and emotion regulation. Finally, we identify a partisan divide in moral and emotional reactions that emerged after the first US death. Overall, these results show how collective emotional states have changed since the pandemic began, and how social media can provide a useful tool to understand, and even regulate, diverse patterns underlying human affect.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Road Network Evolution in the Urban and Rural United States Since 1900

Road networks represent a key component of human settlements, such as cities, towns, and villages, that mediate pollution and congestion, as well as economic development. However, little is known about the long-term development trajectories of road networks in rural and urban settings. We leverage novel spatial data sources to reconstruct and analyze road networks in more than 850 US cities and over 2,500 US counties since 1900. Our analysis reveals significant variations in the structure of roads both within cities and across the conterminous US. Despite differences in the evolution of these networks, there are commonalities and strong geographic patterns. These results persist across the rural-urban continuum and are therefore not just a product of accelerated urban growth. These findings refine and extend existing knowledge and illuminate the need for policies for urban and rural planning including the critical assessment of new development trends.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Emergent Instabilities in Algorithmic Feedback Loops

Algorithms that aid human tasks, such as recommendation systems, are ubiquitous. They appear in everything from social media to streaming videos to online shopping. However, the feedback loop between people and algorithms is poorly understood and can amplify cognitive and social biases (algorithmic confounding), leading to unexpected outcomes. In this work, we explore algorithmic confounding in collaborative filtering-based recommendation algorithms through teacher-student learning simulations. Namely, a student collaborative filtering-based model, trained on simulated choices, is used by the recommendation algorithm to recommend items to agents. Agents might choose some of these items, according to an underlying teacher model, with new choices then fed back into the student model as new training data (approximating online machine learning). These simulations demonstrate how algorithmic confounding produces erroneous recommendations which in turn lead to instability, i.e., wide variations in an item's popularity between each simulation realization. We use the simulations to demonstrate a novel approach to training collaborative filtering models that can create more stable and accurate recommendations. Our methodology is general enough that it can be extended to other socio-technical systems in order to better quantify and improve the stability of algorithms. These results highlight the need to account for emergent behaviors from interactions between people and algorithms.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Heterogeneous Effects of Software Patches in a Multiplayer Online Battle Arena Game

The popularity of online gaming has grown dramatically, driven in part by streaming and the billion-dollar e-sports industry. Online games regularly update their software to fix bugs, add functionality that improve the game's look and feel, and change the game mechanics to keep the games fun and challenging. An open question, however, is the impact of these changes on player performance and game balance, as well as how players adapt to these sudden changes. To address these questions, we use causal inference to measure the impact of software patches to League of Legends, a popular team-based multiplayer online game. We show that game patches have substantially different impacts on players depending on their skill level and whether they take breaks between games. We find that the gap between good and bad players increases after a patch, despite efforts to make gameplay more equal. Moreover, longer between-game breaks tend to improve player performance after patches. Overall, our results highlight the utility of causal inference, and specifically heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, as a tool to quantify the complex mechanisms of game balance and its interplay with players' performance.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

DoGR: Disaggregated Gaussian Regression for Reproducible Analysis of Heterogeneous Data

Quantitative analysis of large-scale data is often complicated by the presence of diverse subgroups, which reduce the accuracy of inferences they make on held-out data. To address the challenge of heterogeneous data analysis, we introduce DoGR, a method that discovers latent confounders by simultaneously partitioning the data into overlapping clusters (disaggregation) and modeling the behavior within them (regression). When applied to real-world data, our method discovers meaningful clusters and their characteristic behaviors, thus giving insight into group differences and their impact on the outcome of interest. By accounting for latent confounders, our framework facilitates exploratory analysis of noisy, heterogeneous data and can be used to learn predictive models that better generalize to new data. We provide the code to enable others to use DoGR within their data analytic workflows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Limiting Tags Fosters Efficiency

Tagging facilitates information retrieval in social media and other online communities by allowing users to organize and describe online content. Researchers found that the efficiency of tagging systems steadily decreases over time, because tags become less precise in identifying specific documents, i.e., they lose their descriptiveness. However, previous works did not answer how or even whether community managers can improve the efficiency of tags. In this work, we use information-theoretic measures to track the descriptive and retrieval efficiency of tags on Stack Overflow, a question-answering system that strictly limits the number of tags users can specify per question. We observe that tagging efficiency stabilizes over time, while tag content and descriptiveness both increase. To explain this observation, we hypothesize that limiting the number of tags fosters novelty and diversity in tag usage, two properties which are both beneficial for tagging efficiency. To provide qualitative evidence supporting our hypothesis, we present a statistical model of tagging that demonstrates how novelty and diversity lead to greater tag efficiency in the long run. Our work offers insights into policies to improve information organization and retrieval in online communities.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Political Partisanship and Anti-Science Attitudes in Online Discussions about Covid-19

The novel coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage communities across the US. Opinion surveys identified importance of political ideology in shaping perceptions of the pandemic and compliance with preventive measures. Here, we use social media data to study complexity of polarization. We analyze a large dataset of tweets related to the pandemic collected between January and May of 2020, and develop methods to classify the ideological alignment of users along the moderacy (hardline vs moderate), political (liberal vs conservative) and science (anti-science vs pro-science) dimensions. While polarization along the science and political dimensions are correlated, politically moderate users are more likely to be aligned with the pro-science views, and politically hardline users with anti-science views. Contrary to expectations, we do not find that polarization grows over time; instead, we see increasing activity by moderate pro-science users. We also show that anti-science conservatives tend to tweet from the Southern US, while anti-science moderates from the Western states. Our findings shed light on the multi-dimensional nature of polarization, and the feasibility of tracking polarized opinions about the pandemic across time and space through social media data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Inherent Trade-offs in the Fair Allocation of Treatments

Explicit and implicit bias clouds human judgement, leading to discriminatory treatment of minority groups. A fundamental goal of algorithmic fairness is to avoid the pitfalls in human judgement by learning policies that improve the overall outcomes while providing fair treatment to protected classes. In this paper, we propose a causal framework that learns optimal intervention policies from data subject to fairness constraints. We define two measures of treatment bias and infer best treatment assignment that minimizes the bias while optimizing overall outcome. We demonstrate that there is a dilemma of balancing fairness and overall benefit; however, allowing preferential treatment to protected classes in certain circumstances (affirmative action) can dramatically improve the overall benefit while also preserving fairness. We apply our framework to data containing student outcomes on standardized tests and show how it can be used to design real-world policies that fairly improve student test scores. Our framework provides a principled way to learn fair treatment policies in real-world settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Origins of Algorithmic Instabilities in Crowdsourced Ranking

Crowdsourcing systems aggregate decisions of many people to help users quickly identify high-quality options, such as the best answers to questions or interesting news stories. A long-standing issue in crowdsourcing is how option quality and human judgement heuristics interact to affect collective outcomes, such as the perceived popularity of options. We address this limitation by conducting a controlled experiment where subjects choose between two ranked options whose quality can be independently varied. We use this data to construct a model that quantifies how judgement heuristics and option quality combine when deciding between two options. The model reveals popularity-ranking can be unstable: unless the quality difference between the two options is sufficiently high, the higher quality option is not guaranteed to be eventually ranked on top. To rectify this instability, we create an algorithm that accounts for judgement heuristics to infer the best option and rank it first. This algorithm is guaranteed to be optimal if data matches the model. When the data does not match the model, however, simulations show that in practice this algorithm performs better or at least as well as popularity-based and recency-based ranking for any two-choice question. Our work suggests that algorithms relying on inference of mathematical models of user behavior can substantially improve outcomes in crowdsourcing systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Having a Bad Day? Detecting the Impact of Atypical Life Events Using Wearable Sensors

Life events can dramatically affect our psychological state and work performance. Stress, for example, has been linked to professional dissatisfaction, increased anxiety, and workplace burnout. We explore the impact of positive and negative life events on a number of psychological constructs through a multi-month longitudinal study of hospital and aerospace workers. Through causal inference, we demonstrate that positive life events increase positive affect, while negative events increase stress, anxiety and negative affect. While most events have a transient effect on psychological states, major negative events, like illness or attending a funeral, can reduce positive affect for multiple days. Next, we assess whether these events can be detected through wearable sensors, which can cheaply and unobtrusively monitor health-related factors. We show that these sensors paired with embedding-based learning models can be used ``in the wild'' to capture atypical life events in hundreds of workers across both datasets. Overall our results suggest that automated interventions based on physiological sensing may be feasible to help workers regulate the negative effects of life events.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Unequal Impact and Spatial Aggregation Distort COVID-19 Growth Rates

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis. To make decisions about mitigation strategies and to understand the disease dynamics, policy makers and epidemiologists must know how the disease is spreading in their communities. We analyze confirmed infections and deaths over multiple geographic scales to show that COVID-19's impact is highly unequal: many subregions have nearly zero infections, and others are hot spots. We attribute the effect to a Reed-Hughes-like mechanism in which disease arrives at different times and grows exponentially. Hot spots, however, appear to grow faster than neighboring subregions and dominate spatially aggregated statistics, thereby amplifying growth rates. The staggered spread of COVID-19 can also make aggregated growth rates appear higher even when subregions grow at the same rate. Public policy, economic analysis and epidemic modeling need to account for potential distortions introduced by spatial aggregation.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2019

Learning Fair and Interpretable Representations via Linear Orthogonalization

To reduce human error and prejudice, many high-stakes decisions have been turned over to machine algorithms. However, recent research suggests that this does not remove discrimination, and can perpetuate harmful stereotypes. While algorithms have been developed to improve fairness, they typically face at least one of three shortcomings: they are not interpretable, their prediction quality deteriorates quickly compared to unbiased equivalents, and they are not easily transferable across models. To address these shortcomings, we propose a geometric method that removes correlations between data and any number of protected variables. Further, we can control the strength of debiasing through an adjustable parameter to address the trade-off between prediction quality and fairness. The resulting features are interpretable and can be used with many popular models, such as linear regression, random forest, and multilayer perceptrons. The resulting predictions are found to be more accurate and fair compared to several state-of-the-art fair AI algorithms across a variety of benchmark datasets. Our work shows that debiasing data is a simple and effective solution toward improving fairness.

cs.CY↗