arXiv subjects

Kelvin Amoaba

Publications and source records attributed to Kelvin Amoaba.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Source-Bounded Exact Recovery over Docker's Logs API

Docker can retain records that a collector misses before attachment or during downtime. A persisted read position does not by itself ensure recovery after lifecycle changes. We study what exact recovery contract is achievable through Docker's supported Logs API. We define source-bounded exactness: every retained, distinguishable source record eventually appears exactly once in durable collector output. Our method uses a generation-aware multiset oracle that separates source truncation from collector omission and exposes simultaneous loss and replay. Applied to LogDeck, it uncovered a start-to-attachment race; a one-record attachment overlap, finite Docker-API reconciliation, and exact insertion closed the tested boundary. We compare the fixed revision with unmodified Grafana Alloy 1.18.0, which uses the same API and persists read positions; across 120 collector-runs, LogDeck was exact in 60/60 and Alloy in 20/60. Alloy succeeded at guarded startup and process pause but omitted retained history when recovery required discovering an exited or restarted source. In a causal control, a 5,000-record source exited before collection: stock discovery was exact in 0/20 trials and acquired nothing, while the same reader given the container ID recovered all records exactly in 20/20. This reproduced on OrbStack and independent Ubuntu hosts with Docker 29.4.0 and 24.0.9; both collectors recovered daemon restart, while neither recovered records after source removal. Exactness assumes distinct tuples of physical generation, timestamp, stream, and bytes; 200,000 byte-identical records across two drivers produced no observed collisions. Our results show that lifecycle reacquisition, not a persisted position alone, determines exact recovery within the retained-source horizon. This is a bounded interface claim, not a universal collector ranking or proof of collision freedom.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2026

VCBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Venture Capital

Benchmarks such as SWE-bench and ARC-AGI demonstrate how shared datasets accelerate progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). We introduce VCBench, the first benchmark for predicting founder success in venture capital (VC), a domain where signals are sparse, outcomes are uncertain, and even top investors perform modestly. At inception, the market index achieves a precision of 1.9%. Y Combinator outperforms the index by a factor of 1.7x, while tier-1 firms are 2.9x better. VCBench provides 9,000 anonymized founder profiles, standardized to preserve predictive features while resisting identity leakage, with adversarial tests showing more than 90% reduction in re-identification risk. We evaluate nine state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs). DeepSeek-V3 delivers over six times the baseline precision, GPT-4o achieves the highest F0.5, and most models surpass human benchmarks. Designed as a public and evolving resource available at vcbench.com, VCBench establishes a community-driven standard for reproducible and privacy-preserving evaluation of AGI in early-stage venture forecasting.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CoFEE: Reasoning Control for LLM-Based Feature Discovery

Feature discovery from complex unstructured data is fundamentally a reasoning problem: it requires identifying abstractions that are predictive of a target outcome while avoiding leakage, proxies, and post-outcome signals. With the introduction of ever-improving Large Language Models (LLMs), our method provides a structured method for addressing this challenge. LLMs are well suited for this task by being able to process large amounts of information, but unconstrained feature generation can lead to weak features. In this work, we study reasoning control in LLMs by inducing cognitive behaviors for improving feature discovery. We introduce CoFEE (Cognitive Feature Engineering Engine), a reasoning control framework that enforces cognitive behaviors in how the LLM reasons during feature discovery. From a machine learning perspective, these cognitive behaviors act as structured inductive biases over the space of candidate features generated by the model. These behaviors have been exploited with success in ML models, and include backward chaining from outcomes, subgoal decomposition, verification against observability and leakage criteria, and explicit backtracking of rejected reasoning paths. In a controlled comparison, we show that enforcing cognitive behaviors yields features with higher empirical predictability than those under unconstrained vanilla LLM prompts. CoFEE achieves an average Success Rate Score that is 15.2% higher than the vanilla approach, while generating 29% fewer features and reducing costs by 53.3%. Using held-out feature evaluation, we assess whether cognitively induced features generalize beyond the data used for discovery. Our results indicate that, in our evaluated setting, reasoning control is associated with improvements in quality and efficiency of LLM-based feature discovery.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

From Stochastic Answers to Verifiable Reasoning: Interpretable Decision-Making with LLM-Generated Code

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for high-stakes decision-making, yet existing approaches struggle to reconcile scalability, interpretability, and reproducibility. Black-box models obscure their reasoning, while recent LLM-based rule systems rely on per-sample evaluation, causing costs to scale with dataset size and introducing stochastic, hallucination-prone outputs. We propose reframing LLMs as code generators rather than per-instance evaluators. A single LLM call generates executable, human-readable decision logic that runs deterministically over structured data, eliminating per-sample LLM queries while enabling reproducible and auditable predictions. We combine code generation with automated statistical validation using precision lift, binomial significance testing, and coverage filtering, and apply cluster-based gap analysis to iteratively refine decision logic without human annotation. We instantiate this framework in venture capital founder screening, a rare-event prediction task with strong interpretability requirements. On VCBench, a benchmark of 4,500 founders with a 9% base success rate, our approach achieves 37.5% precision and an F0.5 score of 25.0%, outperforming GPT-4o (at 30.0% precision and an F0.5 score of 25.7%) while maintaining full interpretability. Each prediction traces to executable rules over human-readable attributes, demonstrating verifiable and interpretable LLM-based decision-making in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

From Limited Data to Rare-event Prediction: LLM-powered Feature Engineering and Multi-model Learning in Venture Capital

This paper presents a framework for predicting rare, high-impact outcomes by integrating large language models (LLMs) with a multi-model machine learning (ML) architecture. The approach combines the predictive strength of black-box models with the interpretability required for reliable decision-making. We use LLM-powered feature engineering to extract and synthesize complex signals from unstructured data, which are then processed within a layered ensemble of models including XGBoost, Random Forest, and Linear Regression. The ensemble first produces a continuous estimate of success likelihood, which is then thresholded to produce a binary rare-event prediction. We apply this framework to the domain of Venture Capital (VC), where investors must evaluate startups with limited and noisy early-stage data. The empirical results show strong performance: the model achieves precision between 9.8X and 11.1X the random classifier baseline in three independent test subsets. Feature sensitivity analysis further reveals interpretable success drivers: the startup's category list accounts for 15.6% of predictive influence, followed by the number of founders, while education level and domain expertise contribute smaller yet consistent effects.

cs.LG↗