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Kenichi Hirayama

Publications and source records attributed to Kenichi Hirayama.

2 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2024

Measuring the Time-Varying Market Efficiency in the Prewar and Wartime Japanese Stock Market, 1924-1943

This study explores the time-varying structure of market efficiency in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market using a new market capitalization-weighted stock price index, the equity performance index. We examine whether the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) is supported in that era. First, we find that the degree of market efficiency in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market varies over time and with major historical events. This implies that the AMH is supported in this market. Second, we find that the variation in market efficiency observed in this study is significantly different from that in previous studies because of whether the price index is capitalization weighted. Finally, as government intervention in the market intensified throughout the 1930s, market efficiency declined as the war risk premium rose, especially from the time when the Pacific War became inevitable.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2021

Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Model

This paper explores when the financial market lost the price formation function in prewar Japan in the sense of Fama's (1970) semi-strong form market efficiency using a new dataset. We particularly focus on the relationship between the prewar Japanese financial market and several government policy interventions to explore whether the semi-strong form market efficiency evolves over time. To capture the long-run impact of government policy interventions against the markets, we measure the time-varying joint degree of market efficiency and the time-varying impulse responses based on Ito et al.'s (2014; 2017) generalized least squares-based time-varying vector autoregressive model. The empirical results reveal that (1) the joint degree of market efficiency in the prewar Japanese financial market fluctuated over time because of external events such as policy changes and wars, (2) the semi-strong form EMH is almost supported in the prewar Japanese financial market, (3) Lo's (2004) adaptive market hypothesis is supported in the prewar Japanese financial market even if we consider that the public information affects the financial markets, and (4) the prewar Japanese financial markets lost the price formation function in 1932 and that was a turning point in the market.

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