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Kenji Yamanishi

Publications and source records attributed to Kenji Yamanishi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

MDL Meets Latent Confounders: LNML-based Causal Discovery

Causal discovery with nonlinear mechanisms and latent confounders remains challenging. Existing methods often rely on either linear assumptions or causal sufficiency, limiting their applicability. We propose an MDL-based causal discovery framework that explicitly accounts for latent confounders while allowing flexible nonlinear mechanisms by minimizing the luckiness normalized maximum likelihood (LNML) code-length. The causal relationship between each variable pair is determined by selecting the shortest code-length of the causal model, and we introduce the notion of $Δ$-pseudo-collinearity to identify dependencies induced by latent confounders. Based on these ideas, we develop a greedy algorithm, termed Pseudo-Collinearity Guided Causal Discovery (PCG-CD). Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method accurately recovers directed causal relationships and effectively detects latent confounders.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Policy Optimization Achieves Data-Dependent Regret Bounds in MDPs with Unknown Transitions

We study policy optimization for online episodic tabular Markov decision processes with unknown transition kernels, aiming for best-of-both-worlds guarantees together with data-dependent regret bounds. Recent work (Dann et al., 2023; Li et al., 2026) has shown that policy optimization can adapt to both adversarial and stochastic losses with first-order, second-order, and path-length bounds, but only under known transitions, leaving open whether such data-dependent guarantees are achievable by policy optimization when the transition kernel is unknown. We resolve this by developing a new algorithm based on optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader that attains these guarantees under unknown transitions. The key ingredient is a new design of optimistic $Q$-function estimators together with a data-dependent transition bonus that controls estimator bias through the loss-prediction error. Our analysis further identifies an unavoidable transition-dependent complexity term that captures the intrinsic cost of estimating the transition kernel. As a result, we obtain first-order, second-order, and path-length bounds with the transition-dependent complexity term while simultaneously achieving gap-dependent $\mathrm{polylog}(T)$ regret in the stochastic regime.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Data- and Variance-dependent Regret Bounds for Online Tabular MDPs

This work studies online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with known transitions and develops best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve refined data-dependent regret bounds in the adversarial regime and variance-dependent regret bounds in the stochastic regime. We quantify MDP complexity using a first-order quantity and several new data-dependent measures for the adversarial regime, including a second-order quantity and a path-length measure, as well as variance-based measures for the stochastic regime. To adapt to these measures, we develop algorithms based on global optimization and policy optimization, both built on optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with log-barrier regularization. For global optimization, our algorithms achieve first-order, second-order, and path-length regret bounds in the adversarial regime, and in the stochastic regime, they achieve a variance-aware gap-independent bound and a variance-aware gap-dependent bound that is polylogarithmic in the number of episodes. For policy optimization, our algorithms achieve the same data- and variance-dependent adaptivity, up to a factor of the episode horizon, by exploiting a new optimistic $Q$-function estimator. Finally, we establish regret lower bounds in terms of data-dependent complexity measures for the adversarial regime and a variance measure for the stochastic regime, implying that the regret upper bounds achieved by the global-optimization approach are nearly optimal.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

An Information Theoretic Framework for Graph Novelty Generation via Latent Mixture Modeling

We propose an information-theoretic framework for graph novelty generation, which aims to generate data that are distinct from existing patterns while preserving global structural consistency. Our approach embeds data into a latent space, models the latent distribution using finite mixture models, and generates novel samples by imposing explicit novelty and reliability conditions formulated in terms of description length. Specifically, novelty is enforced by requiring generated samples to be poorly explained by all existing mixture components, while reliability constrains their impact on the overall mixture structure under the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that, with appropriate threshold choices, the probabilities of misclassifying non-novel or unreliable samples converge to zero with explicit rates. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark graph datasets demonstrate that the proposed method enables principled novelty generation with quantifiable risk.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Normalized Maximum Likelihood Code-Length on Riemannian Data Spaces

In recent years, with the large-scale expansion of graph data, there has been an increased focus on Riemannian manifold data spaces other than Euclidean space. In particular, the development of hyperbolic spaces has been remarkable, and they have high expressive power for graph data with hierarchical structures. Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) is employed in regret minimization and model selection. However, existing formulations of NML have been developed primarily in Euclidean spaces and are inherently dependent on the choice of coordinate systems, making it non-trivial to extend NML to Riemannian manifolds. In this study, we define a new NML that reflects the geometric structure of Riemannian manifolds, called the Riemannian manifold NML (Rm-NML). This Rm-NML is invariant under coordinate transformations and coincides with the conventional NML under the natural parameterization in Euclidean space. We extend existing computational techniques for NML to the setting of Riemannian manifolds. Furthermore, we derive a method to simplify the computation of Rm-NML on Riemannian symmetric spaces, which encompass data spaces of growing interest such as hyperbolic spaces. To illustrate the practical application of our proposed method, we explicitly computed the Rm-NML for normal distributions on hyperbolic spaces.

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arXiv2026

Bandit and Delayed Feedback in Online Structured Prediction

Online structured prediction is a task of sequentially predicting outputs with complex structures based on inputs and past observations, encompassing online classification. Recent studies showed that in the full-information setting, we can achieve finite bounds on the \textit{surrogate regret}, \textit{i.e.,}~the extra target loss relative to the best possible surrogate loss. In practice, however, full-information feedback is often unrealistic as it requires immediate access to the whole structure of complex outputs. Motivated by this, we propose algorithms that work with less demanding feedback, \textit{bandit} and \textit{delayed} feedback. For bandit feedback, by using a standard inverse-weighted gradient estimator, we achieve a surrogate regret bound of $O(\sqrt{KT})$ for the time horizon $T$ and the size of the output set $K$. However, $K$ can be extremely large when outputs are highly complex, resulting in an undesirable bound. To address this issue, we propose another algorithm that achieves a surrogate regret bound of $O(T^{2/3})$, which is independent of $K$. This is achieved with a carefully designed pseudo-inverse matrix estimator. Furthermore, we numerically compare the performance of these algorithms, as well as existing ones. Regarding delayed feedback, we provide algorithms and regret analyses that cover various scenarios, including full-information and bandit feedback, as well as fixed and variable delays.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Graph Community Augmentation with GMM-based Modeling in Latent Space

This study addresses the issue of graph generation with generative models. In particular, we are concerned with graph community augmentation problem, which refers to the problem of generating unseen or unfamiliar graphs with a new community out of the probability distribution estimated with a given graph dataset. The graph community augmentation means that the generated graphs have a new community. There is a chance of discovering an unseen but important structure of graphs with a new community, for example, in a social network such as a purchaser network. Graph community augmentation may also be helpful for generalization of data mining models in a case where it is difficult to collect real graph data enough. In fact, there are many ways to generate a new community in an existing graph. It is desirable to discover a new graph with a new community beyond the given graph while we keep the structure of the original graphs to some extent for the generated graphs to be realistic. To this end, we propose an algorithm called the graph community augmentation (GCA). The key ideas of GCA are (i) to fit Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to data points in the latent space into which the nodes in the original graph are embedded, and (ii) to add data points in the new cluster in the latent space for generating a new community based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of GCA for generating graphs with a new community structure on synthetic and real datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Foundation of Calculating Normalized Maximum Likelihood for Continuous Probability Models

The normalized maximum likelihood (NML) code length is widely used as a model selection criterion based on the minimum description length principle, where the model with the shortest NML code length is selected. A common method to calculate the NML code length is to use the sum (for a discrete model) or integral (for a continuous model) of a function defined by the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. While this method has been proven to correctly calculate the NML code length of discrete models, no proof has been provided for continuous cases. Consequently, it has remained unclear whether the method can accurately calculate the NML code length of continuous models. In this paper, we solve this problem affirmatively, proving that the method is also correct for continuous cases. Remarkably, completing the proof for continuous cases is non-trivial in that it cannot be achieved by merely replacing the sums in discrete cases with integrals, as the decomposition trick applied to sums in the discrete model case proof is not applicable to integrals in the continuous model case proof. To overcome this, we introduce a novel decomposition approach based on the coarea formula from geometric measure theory, which is essential to establishing our proof for continuous cases.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

Clustering Change Sign Detection by Fusing Mixture Complexity

This paper proposes an early detection method for cluster structural changes. Cluster structure refers to discrete structural characteristics, such as the number of clusters, when data are represented using finite mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models. We focused on scenarios in which the cluster structure gradually changed over time. For finite mixture models, the concept of mixture complexity (MC) measures the continuous cluster size by considering the cluster proportion bias and overlap between clusters. In this paper, we propose MC fusion as an extension of MC to handle situations in which multiple mixture numbers are possible in a finite mixture model. By incorporating the fusion of multiple models, our approach accurately captured the cluster structure during transitional periods of gradual change. Moreover, we introduce a method for detecting changes in the cluster structure by examining the transition of MC fusion. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through empirical analysis using both artificial and real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Adaptive Topological Feature via Persistent Homology: Filtration Learning for Point Clouds

Machine learning for point clouds has been attracting much attention, with many applications in various fields, such as shape recognition and material science. For enhancing the accuracy of such machine learning methods, it is often effective to incorporate global topological features, which are typically extracted by persistent homology. In the calculation of persistent homology for a point cloud, we choose a filtration for the point cloud, an increasing sequence of spaces. Since the performance of machine learning methods combined with persistent homology is highly affected by the choice of a filtration, we need to tune it depending on data and tasks. In this paper, we propose a framework that learns a filtration adaptively with the use of neural networks. In order to make the resulting persistent homology isometry-invariant, we develop a neural network architecture with such invariance. Additionally, we show a theoretical result on a finite-dimensional approximation of filtration functions, which justifies the proposed network architecture. Experimental results demonstrated the efficacy of our framework in several classification tasks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Balancing Summarization and Change Detection in Graph Streams

This study addresses the issue of balancing graph summarization and graph change detection. Graph summarization compresses large-scale graphs into a smaller scale. However, the question remains: To what extent should the original graph be compressed? This problem is solved from the perspective of graph change detection, aiming to detect statistically significant changes using a stream of summary graphs. If the compression rate is extremely high, important changes can be ignored, whereas if the compression rate is extremely low, false alarms may increase with more memory. This implies that there is a trade-off between compression rate in graph summarization and accuracy in change detection. We propose a novel quantitative methodology to balance this trade-off to simultaneously realize reliable graph summarization and change detection. We introduce a probabilistic structure of hierarchical latent variable model into a graph, thereby designing a parameterized summary graph on the basis of the minimum description length principle. The parameter specifying the summary graph is then optimized so that the accuracy of change detection is guaranteed to suppress Type I error probability (probability of raising false alarms) to be less than a given confidence level. First, we provide a theoretical framework for connecting graph summarization with change detection. Then, we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic and real datasets.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Tight and fast generalization error bound of graph embedding in metric space

Recent studies have experimentally shown that we can achieve in non-Euclidean metric space effective and efficient graph embedding, which aims to obtain the vertices' representations reflecting the graph's structure in the metric space. Specifically, graph embedding in hyperbolic space has experimentally succeeded in embedding graphs with hierarchical-tree structure, e.g., data in natural languages, social networks, and knowledge bases. However, recent theoretical analyses have shown a much higher upper bound on non-Euclidean graph embedding's generalization error than Euclidean one's, where a high generalization error indicates that the incompleteness and noise in the data can significantly damage learning performance. It implies that the existing bound cannot guarantee the success of graph embedding in non-Euclidean metric space in a practical training data size, which can prevent non-Euclidean graph embedding's application in real problems. This paper provides a novel upper bound of graph embedding's generalization error by evaluating the local Rademacher complexity of the model as a function set of the distances of representation couples. Our bound clarifies that the performance of graph embedding in non-Euclidean metric space, including hyperbolic space, is better than the existing upper bounds suggest. Specifically, our new upper bound is polynomial in the metric space's geometric radius $R$ and can be $O(\frac{1}{S})$ at the fastest, where $S$ is the training data size. Our bound is significantly tighter and faster than the existing one, which can be exponential to $R$ and $O(\frac{1}{\sqrt{S}})$ at the fastest. Specific calculations on example cases show that graph embedding in non-Euclidean metric space can outperform that in Euclidean space with much smaller training data than the existing bound has suggested.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Detecting Signs of Model Change with Continuous Model Selection Based on Descriptive Dimensionality

We address the issue of detecting changes of models that lie behind a data stream. The model refers to an integer-valued structural information such as the number of free parameters in a parametric model. Specifically we are concerned with the problem of how we can detect signs of model changes earlier than they are actualized. To this end, we employ {\em continuous model selection} on the basis of the notion of {\em descriptive dimensionality}~(Ddim). It is a real-valued model dimensionality, which is designed for quantifying the model dimensionality in the model transition period. Continuous model selection is to determine the real-valued model dimensionality in terms of Ddim from a given data. We propose a novel methodology for detecting signs of model changes by tracking the rise-up of Ddim in a data stream. We apply this methodology to detecting signs of changes of the number of clusters in a Gaussian mixture model and those of the order in an auto regression model. With synthetic and real data sets, we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness by showing that it is able to visualize well how rapidly model dimensionality moves in the transition period and to raise early warning signals of model changes earlier than they are detected with existing methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Online Robust and Adaptive Learning from Data Streams

In online learning from non-stationary data streams, it is necessary to learn robustly to outliers and to adapt quickly to changes in the underlying data generating mechanism. In this paper, we refer to the former attribute of online learning algorithms as robustness and to the latter as adaptivity. There is an obvious tradeoff between the two attributes. It is a fundamental issue to quantify and evaluate the tradeoff because it provides important information on the data generating mechanism. However, no previous work has considered the tradeoff quantitatively. We propose a novel algorithm called the stochastic approximation-based robustness-adaptivity algorithm (SRA) to evaluate the tradeoff. The key idea of SRA is to update parameters of distribution or sufficient statistics with the biased stochastic approximation scheme, while dropping data points with large values of the stochastic update. We address the relation between the two parameters: one is the step size of the stochastic approximation, and the other is the threshold parameter of the norm of the stochastic update. The former controls the adaptivity and the latter does the robustness. We give a theoretical analysis for the non-asymptotic convergence of SRA in the presence of outliers, which depends on both the step size and threshold parameter. Because SRA is formulated on the majorization-minimization principle, it is a general algorithm that includes many algorithms, such as the online EM algorithm and stochastic gradient descent. Empirical experiments for both synthetic and real datasets demonstrated that SRA was superior to previous methods.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2021

Generalization Error Bound for Hyperbolic Ordinal Embedding

Hyperbolic ordinal embedding (HOE) represents entities as points in hyperbolic space so that they agree as well as possible with given constraints in the form of entity i is more similar to entity j than to entity k. It has been experimentally shown that HOE can obtain representations of hierarchical data such as a knowledge base and a citation network effectively, owing to hyperbolic space's exponential growth property. However, its theoretical analysis has been limited to ideal noiseless settings, and its generalization error in compensation for hyperbolic space's exponential representation ability has not been guaranteed. The difficulty is that existing generalization error bound derivations for ordinal embedding based on the Gramian matrix do not work in HOE, since hyperbolic space is not inner-product space. In this paper, through our novel characterization of HOE with decomposed Lorentz Gramian matrices, we provide a generalization error bound of HOE for the first time, which is at most exponential with respect to the embedding space's radius. Our comparison between the bounds of HOE and Euclidean ordinal embedding shows that HOE's generalization error is reasonable as a cost for its exponential representation ability.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Detecting Change Signs with Differential MDL Change Statistics for COVID-19 Pandemic Analysis

We are concerned with the issue of detecting changes and their signs from a data stream. For example, when given time series of COVID-19 cases in a region, we may raise early warning signals of outbreaks by detecting signs of changes in the cases. We propose a novel methodology to address this issue. The key idea is to employ a new information-theoretic notion, which we call the differential minimum description length change statistics (D-MDL), for measuring the scores of change sign. We first give a fundamental theory for D-MDL. We then demonstrate its effectiveness using synthetic datasets. We apply it to detecting early warning signals of the COVID-19 epidemic. We empirically demonstrate that D-MDL is able to raise early warning signals of events such as significant increase/decrease of cases. Remarkably, for about $64\%$ of the events of significant increase of cases in 37 studied countries, our method can detect warning signals as early as nearly six days on average before the events, buying considerably long time for making responses. We further relate the warning signals to the basic reproduction number $R0$ and the timing of social distancing. The results showed that our method can effectively monitor the dynamics of $R0$, and confirmed the effectiveness of social distancing at containing the epidemic in a region. We conclude that our method is a promising approach to the pandemic analysis from a data science viewpoint. The software for the experiments is available at https://github.com/IbarakikenYukishi/differential-mdl-change-statistics. An online detection system is available at https://ibarakikenyukishi.github.io/d-mdl-html/index.html

stat.AP↗
arXiv2020

Detecting Hierarchical Changes in Latent Variable Models

This paper addresses the issue of detecting hierarchical changes in latent variable models (HCDL) from data streams. There are three different levels of changes for latent variable models: 1) the first level is the change in data distribution for fixed latent variables, 2) the second one is that in the distribution over latent variables, and 3) the third one is that in the number of latent variables. It is important to detect these changes because we can analyze the causes of changes by identifying which level a change comes from (change interpretability). This paper proposes an information-theoretic framework for detecting changes of the three levels in a hierarchical way. The key idea to realize it is to employ the MDL (minimum description length) change statistics for measuring the degree of change, in combination with DNML (decomposed normalized maximum likelihood) code-length calculation. We give a theoretical basis for making reliable alarms for changes. Focusing on stochastic block models, we employ synthetic and benchmark datasets to empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in terms of change interpretability as well as change detection.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2020

Word2vec Skip-gram Dimensionality Selection via Sequential Normalized Maximum Likelihood

In this paper, we propose a novel information criteria-based approach to select the dimensionality of the word2vec Skip-gram (SG). From the perspective of the probability theory, SG is considered as an implicit probability distribution estimation under the assumption that there exists a true contextual distribution among words. Therefore, we apply information criteria with the aim of selecting the best dimensionality so that the corresponding model can be as close as possible to the true distribution. We examine the following information criteria for the dimensionality selection problem: the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Sequential Normalized Maximum Likelihood (SNML) criterion. SNML is the total codelength required for the sequential encoding of a data sequence on the basis of the minimum description length. The proposed approach is applied to both the original SG model and the SG Negative Sampling model to clarify the idea of using information criteria. Additionally, as the original SNML suffers from computational disadvantages, we introduce novel heuristics for its efficient computation. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate that SNML outperforms both BIC and AIC. In comparison with other evaluation methods for word embedding, the dimensionality selected by SNML is significantly closer to the optimal dimensionality obtained by word analogy or word similarity tasks.

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