arXiv subjects

Keno Riechers

Publications and source records attributed to Keno Riechers.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Discontinuous stochastic forcing in Greenland ice core data

Paleoclimate proxy records from Greenland ice cores, archiving e.g. $δ^{18}$O as a proxy for surface temperature, show that sudden climatic shifts called Dansgaard-Oeschger events (DO) occurred repeatedly during the last glacial interval. They comprised substantial warming of the Arctic region from cold to milder conditions. Concomitant abrupt changes in the dust concentrations of the same ice cores suggest that sudden reorganisations of the hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation have accompanied the warming events. Genuine bistability of the North Atlantic climate system is commonly hypothesised to explain the existence of stadial (cold) and interstadial (milder) periods in Greenland. However, the physical mechanisms that drove abrupt transitions from the stadial to the interstadial state, and more gradual yet still abrupt reverse transitions, remain debated. Here, we conduct a one-dimensional data-driven analysis of the Greenland temperature and atmospheric circulation proxies under the purview of stochastic processes. We take the Kramers-Moyal equation to estimate each proxy's drift and diffusion terms within a Markovian model framework. We then assess noise contributions beyond Gaussian white noise. The resulting stochastic differential equation (SDE) models feature a monostable drift for the Greenland temperature proxy and a bistable one for the atmospheric circulation proxy. Indicators of discontinuity in stochastic processes suggest to include higher-order terms of the Kramers-Moyal equation when modelling the Greenland temperature proxy's evolution. This constitutes a qualitative difference in the characteristics of the two time series, which should be further investigated from the standpoint of climate dynamics.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Anticipating critical transitions in multidimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Anticipating bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. Before the annihilation of a system's equilibrium point by means of a bifurcation, the system's internal feedbacks that stabilize the initial state weaken and eventually vanish, a process referred to as critical slowing down (CSD). In one-dimensional systems, this motivates the use of variance and lag-1 autocorrelation as indicators of CSD. However, the applicability of variance is limited to time- and state-independent driving noise, strongly constraining the generality of this CSD indicator. In multidimensional systems, the use of these indicators is often preceded by a dimension reduction in order to obtain a one-dimensional time series. Many common techniques for such an extraction of a one-dimensional time series generally incur the risk of missing CSD in practice. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on estimating a multidimensional Langevin equation to detect local stability changes and anticipate bifurcation-induced transitions in systems with generally time- and state-dependent noise. Our approach substantially generalizes the conditions under which CSD can reliably be detected, as demonstrated in a suite of examples. In contrast to existing approaches, changes in deterministic dynamics can be clearly discriminated from changes in the driving noise using our method. This substantially reduces the risk of false or missed alarms of conventional CSD indicators in settings with time-dependent or multiplicative noise. In multidimensional systems, our method can greatly advance the understanding of the coupling between system components and can avoid risks of missing CSD due to dimension reduction, which existing approaches suffer from.

math.DS↗

arXiv2024

Glacial abrupt climate change as a multi-scale phenomenon resulting from monostable excitable dynamics

Paleoclimate proxies reveal abrupt transitions of the North Atlantic climate during past glacial intervals known as Dansgaard--Oeschger (DO) events. A central feature of DO events is a sudden warming of about 10$^{\circ}$C in Greenland marking the beginning of relatively mild phases termed interstadials. These exhibit gradual cooling over several hundred to a few thousand years until a final abrupt decline brings the temperatures back to cold stadial levels. As of now, the exact mechanism behind this millennia-scale variability remains inconclusive. Here, we propose an excitable model to explain Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, where interstadials occur as noise-induced state space excursions. Our model comprises the mutual multi-scale interactions between four dynamical variables representing Arctic atmospheric temperatures, Nordic Seas' temperatures and sea ice cover, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The model's atmosphere-ocean heat flux is moderated by the sea ice, which in turn is subject to large perturbations dynamically generated by fast-evolving intermittent noise. If supercritical, perturbations trigger interstadial-like state space excursions during which all four model variables undergo qualitative changes that consistently resemble the signature of interstadials in corresponding proxy records. As a physical intermittent process generating the noise we propose convective events in the ocean or atmospheric blocking events. Our model accurately reproduces the DO cycle shape, return times and the dependence of the interstadial and stadial durations on the background conditions. In contrast to the prevailing understanding that DO variability is based on bistability in the underlying dynamics, we show that multi-scale, monostable excitable dynamics provide a promising alternative to explain millennial-scale climate variability associated with DO events.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2017

Detecting Friedel oscillations in ultracold Fermi gases

Investigating Friedel oscillations in ultracold gases would complement the studies performed on solid state samples with scanning-tunneling microscopes. In atomic quantum gases interactions and external potentials can be tuned freely and the inherently slower dynamics allow to access non-equilibrium dynamics following a potential or interaction quench. Here, we examine how Friedel oscillations can be observed in current ultracold gas experiments under realistic conditions. To this aim we numerically calculate the amplitude of the Friedel oscillations which a potential barrier provokes in a 1D Fermi gas and compare it to the expected atomic and photonic shot noise in a density measurement. We find that to detect Friedel oscillations the signal from several thousand one-dimensional systems has to be averaged. However, as up to 100 parallel one-dimensional systems can be prepared in a single run with present experiments, averaging over about 100 images is sufficient.

cond-mat.quant-gas↗