arXiv subjects

Kevin A. McKinnon

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin A. McKinnon.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reconstructing the orbits of Milky Way dwarf galaxies: A Large Magellanic Cloud perspective

The orbital histories of the dwarf satellites of the Milky Way (MW) are key to understanding their evolution and placing their present-day properties in a dynamical context. We present the results of the orbit integration of 72 dwarfs in the vicinity of the MW, based on accurate 6D phase-space coordinates from the literature and a suite of six realistic, time-evolving gravitational potentials that account for the mutual interaction of the MW and the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We provide the largest catalogue of orbital parameters for MW dwarfs to date, in terms of both galaxy sample size and range of potentials explored. We also assess the binding status of the dwarfs and estimate their infall times, finding that the majority of them have spent the last 5 Gyr within the MW virial radius. From the reconstructed orbits, we identify ten likely LMC satellites, several of which have experienced very close passages within the LMC stellar disc. For the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), we find that its most recent pericentre about the LMC ($\sim$8 kpc, $\sim$170 Myr ago) is consistent with predictions from the direct collision scenario proposed to explain the LMC's offset and tilted bar. We also note a broad temporal coincidence between previous SMC pericentres and star formation rate peaks reported in both Magellanic Clouds, suggesting a causal connection. Finally, we identify Grus II and Tucana IV as possible MW satellites recently captured by the LMC, based on their pronounced orbital deflections and velocities relative to the LMC.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Simulating Roman+Gaia Combined Astrometry, Parallaxes, and Proper Motions

The next generation of high-precision astrometry is rapidly approaching thanks to ongoing and upcoming missions like Euclid, LSST, and RST. We present a new tool (available at https://github.com/KevinMcK95/gaia_roman_astrometry) to simulate the astrometric precision that will be achieved when combining Gaia data with Roman images. The statistics that underpin this method generalize to combinations of astrometric datasets from any telescope. We construct realistic Roman position uncertainties as a function of filter, magnitude, and exposure time, which are combined with Gaia precisions and user-defined Roman observing strategies to predict the expected uncertainty in position, parallax, and proper motion (PM). We also simulate the core Roman surveys to assess their end-of-mission astrometric capabilities, finding that the High Latitude and Galactic Bulge Time Domain Surveys will deliver Gaia-DR3-quality PMs down to G=26.5 mag and G=29.0 mag, respectively. Due to its modest number of repeat observations, we find that the astrometry of the High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS) is very sensitive to particular choices in observing strategies. We compare possible HLWAS strategies to highlight the impact of parallax effects and conclude that a multi-year Roman-only baseline is required for useful PM uncertainties (<100 mas/yr). This simulation tool is actively being used for ongoing Roman proposal writing to ensure astrometric requirements for science goals will be met. Subsequent work will expand this tool to include simulated observations from other telescopes to plan for a future where all surveys and datasets are harnessed together.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Optimal and Unbiased Fluxes from Up-the-Ramp Detectors under Variable Illumination

Near-infrared (NIR) detectors -- which use non-destructive readouts to measure time-series counts-per-pixel -- play a crucial role in modern astrophysics. Standard NIR flux extraction techniques were developed for space-based observations and assume that source fluxes are constant over an observation. However, ground-based telescopes often see short-timescale atmospheric variations that can dramatically change the number of photons arriving at a pixel. This work presents a new statistical model that shares information between neighboring spectral pixels to characterize time-variable observations and extract unbiased fluxes with optimal uncertainties. We generate realistic synthetic data using a variety of flux and amplitude-of-time-variability conditions to confirm that our model recovers unbiased and optimal estimates of both the true flux and the time-variable signal. We find that the time-variable model should be favored over a constant-flux model when the observed count rates change by more than 3.5%. Ignoring time variability in the data can result in flux-dependent, unknown-sign biases that are as large as ~120% of the flux uncertainty. Using real APOGEE spectra, we find empirical evidence for approximately wavelength-independent, time-dependent variations in count rates with amplitudes much greater than the 3.5% threshold. Our model can robustly measure and remove the time-dependence in real data, improving the quality of data-model comparison. We show several examples where the observed time-dependence quantitatively agrees with independent measurements of observing conditions, such as variable cloud cover and seeing.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

A near field guide to Roman's wide-area surveys

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope currently plans to survey nearly 6000 square degrees of the sky, mainly in the High-Latitude Wide-Area Survey (HLWAS) and Galactic Plane Survey (GPS). Although these surveys are optimized for other science, they are also a treasure trove for studying the nearby universe. The foreground of the HLWAS includes 59 known stellar streams, 14 known satellite galaxies, and 9 globular clusters in the Milky Way, and an additional 63 galaxies within 10 Mpc spanning several orders of magnitude in stellar mass. The GPS includes an additional 38 globular clusters in its footprint. We summarize and visualize these populations and discuss some of the relevant characteristics of the planned Roman observations. We also examine the expected astrometric performance of the core surveys based on the anticipated time-baselines between observations, and point out the substantial improvement provided by longer time intervals between repeat observations. In particular, the plan for a 6-month revisit timescale in the HLWAS is a missed opportunity from the perspective of proper motions. These data will nonetheless be a powerful new resource for studying the Milky Way and its neighborhood.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

A Path to an All-Sky Survey with Roman

A deep, space-based, all-sky near-infrared survey carried out with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope would constitute a foundational astronomical infrastructure for decades to come. In this white paper, we present a concrete and feasible path to imaging the entire sky at $\sim0.1''$ resolution, beginning with high-impact fields in Cycle 1 and scaling to ultra-wide coverage within the nominal mission. This first-epoch survey will reach $\mathrm{H}\sim25.5$ AB mag (5$σ$) and maximize synergies with contemporaneous observatories, while preserving substantial time for other ambitious Roman programs. We outline representative scheduling scenarios and an example Cycle 1 program that triples early Roman-LSST overlap and delivers high-value community data products such as LSST forced photometry, joint \textit{Gaia}-Roman astrometry, and catalogs of Galactic substructure, stong lenses, and other rare systems. The Cycle 1 program will lay the foundation for an eventual all-sky survey, while also delivering high-impact early science. We invite broad community participation in shaping and carrying out both the initial program and the long-term vision of an all-sky Roman survey.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

The Proper Motion of Draco II with HST using Multiple Reference Frames and Methodologies

We present proper motion (PM) measurements for Draco II, an ultra-faint dwarf satellite of the Milky Way. These PMs are measured using two epochs of Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys (HST/ACS) imaging separated by a 7 year time baseline. Measuring PMs of low-luminosity systems is difficult due to the low number of member stars, requiring a precise inertial reference frame. We construct reference frames using three different sets of external sources: 1) stars with Gaia DR3 data, 2) stationary background galaxies, and 3) a combination of the two. We show that all three reference frames give consistent PM results. We find that for this sparse, low-luminosity regime including background galaxies into the reference frame improves our measurement by up to $\sim2\times$ versus using only Gaia astrometric data. Using 301 background galaxies as a reference frame, we find that Draco II's systemic PM is $(μ_α^*, μ_δ) = (1.043\pm0.029, 0.879\pm0.028)$ mas/yr, which is the most precise measurement of the three we present in this paper.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Constraining the Milky Way Halo Accretion History With Simulated Stellar Halos: Designing the HALO7D-X Survey

We present the design for HALO7D-X, a survey of the stellar halo to investigate the accretion history of the Milky Way. The survey will use a combination of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Gaia data for sky position and proper motions of faint stars (18<G<21.5 mag), while line-of-sight velocity, distance, [Fe/H], and [alpha/Fe] will be measured using follow-up Keck spectroscopy. The survey will cover 30 lines of sight, made up of multiple HST archival fields and optimized for Keck DEIMOS spectroscopy. We use mock survey observations of the Bullock and Johnston stellar halo simulations to investigate the sensitivity of HALO7D-X to constrain the basic parameters of the accretion history of our Galaxy's stellar halo. We find that we are sensitive to the mass distribution and accretion timeline of the stellar halo progenitors, but not their orbital circularity. We find that the simulated halos fall into three different groups based on the similarities in their distributions of the observable dimensions of our survey. These groups are also distinct from each other in the mass distribution and accretion timeline of their progenitor satellites, showing that by using similarities in our observables among halos, we are able to identify similarities in their accretion histories. With HALO7D-X we will compare real Milky Way data with simulated halos and use this connection between observables and progenitor mass and accretion timeline to learn about the formation of our Galaxy's stellar halo.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Data-driven Discovery of Diffuse Interstellar Bands with APOGEE Spectra

Data-driven models of stellar spectra are useful tools to study non-stellar information, such as the Diffuse Interstellar Bands (DIBs) caused by intervening interstellar material. Using $\sim 55000$ spectra of $\sim 17000$ red clump stars from the APOGEE DR16 dataset, we create 2nd order polynomial models of the continuum-normalized flux as a function of stellar parameters ($T_{eff}$, $\log g$, [Fe/H], [$α$/Fe], and Age). The model and data show good agreement within uncertainties across the APOGEE wavelength range, although many regions reveal residuals that are not in the stellar rest-frame. We show that many of these residual features -- having average extrema at the level of $\sim3\%$ in stellar flux on average -- can be attributed to incompletely-removed spectral lines from the Earth's atmosphere and DIBs from the interstellar medium (ISM). After removing most of the remaining contamination from the Earth's sky, we identify 84 absorption features not seen in unreddened sightlights that have $<50\%$ probability of being noise artifacts -- with 25 of these features having $<5\%$ probability of being noise artifacts -- including all 10 previously-known DIBs in the APOGEE wavelength range. Because many of these features occur in the wavelength windows that APOGEE uses to measure chemical abundances, characterization and removal of this non-stellar contamination is an important step in reaching the precision required for chemical tagging experiments. Proper characterization of these features will benefit Galactic ISM science and the currently-ongoing Milky Way Mapper program of SDSS-V, which relies on the APOGEE spectrograph.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

BP3M: Bayesian Positions, Parallaxes, and Proper Motions derived from the Hubble Space Telescope and Gaia data

We present a hierarchical Bayesian pipeline, BP3M, that measures positions, parallaxes, and proper motions (PMs) for cross-matched sources between Hubble~Space~Telescope (HST) images and Gaia -- even for sparse fields ($N_*<10$ per image) -- expanding from the recent GaiaHub tool. This technique uses Gaia-measured astrometry as priors to predict the locations of sources in HST images, and is therefore able to put the HST images onto a global reference frame without the use of background galaxies/QSOs. Testing our publicly-available code in the Fornax and Draco dSphs, we measure accurate PMs that are a median of 8-13 times more precise than Gaia DR3 alone for $20.5<G<21~\mathrm{mag}$. We are able to explore the effect of observation strategies on BP3M astrometry using synthetic data, finding an optimal strategy to improve parallax and position precision at no cost to the PM uncertainty. Using 1619 HST images in the sparse COSMOS field (median 9 Gaia sources per HST image), we measure BP3M PMs for 2640 unique sources in the $16<G<21.5~\mathrm{mag}$ range, 25% of which have no Gaia PMs; the median BP3M PM uncertainty for $20.25<G<20.75~\mathrm{mag}$ sources is $0.44~$mas/yr compared to $1.03~$mas/yr from Gaia, while the median BP3M PM uncertainty for sources without Gaia-measured PMs ($20.75<G<21.5~\mathrm{mag}$) is $1.16~$mas/yr. The statistics that underpin the BP3M pipeline are a generalized way of combining position measurements from different images, epochs, and telescopes, which allows information to be shared between surveys and archives to achieve higher astrometric precision than that from each catalog alone.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

RomAndromeda: The Roman Survey of the Andromeda Halo

As our nearest large neighbor, the Andromeda Galaxy provides a unique laboratory for investigating galaxy formation and the distribution and substructure properties of dark matter in a Milky Way-like galaxy. Here, we propose an initial 2-epoch ($Δt\approx 5$yr), 2-band Roman survey of the entire halo of Andromeda, covering 500 square degrees, which will detect nearly every red giant star in the halo (10$σ$ detection in F146, F062 of 26.5, 26.1AB mag respectively) and yield proper motions to $\sim$25 microarcsec/year (i.e., $\sim$90 km/s) for all stars brighter than F146 $\approx 23.6$ AB mag (i.e., reaching the red clump stars in the Andromeda halo). This survey will yield (through averaging) high-fidelity proper motions for all satellites and compact substructures in the Andromeda halo and will enable statistical searches for clusters in chemo-dynamical space. Adding a third epoch during the extended mission will improve these proper motions by $\sim t^{-1.5}$, to $\approx 11$ km/s, but this requires obtaining the first epoch in Year 1 of Roman operations. In combination with ongoing and imminent spectroscopic campaigns with ground-based telescopes, this Roman survey has the potential to yield full 3-d space motions of $>$100,000 stars in the Andromeda halo, including (by combining individual measurements) robust space motions of its entire globular cluster and most of its dwarf galaxy satellite populations. It will also identify high-velocity stars in Andromeda, providing unique information on the processes that create this population. These data offer a unique opportunity to study the immigration history, halo formation, and underlying dark matter scaffolding of a galaxy other than our own.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

HALO7D III: Chemical Abundances of Milky Way Halo Stars from Medium Resolution Spectra

The Halo Assembly in Lambda Cold Dark Matter: Observations in 7 Dimensions (HALO7D) survey measures the kinematics and chemical properties of stars in the Milky Way (MW) stellar halo to learn about the formation of our Galaxy. HALO7D consists of Keck II/DEIMOS spectroscopy and Hubble Space Telescope-measured proper motions of MW halo main sequence turn-off (MSTO) stars in the four CANDELS fields. HALO7D consists of deep pencil beams, making it complementary to other contemporary wide-field surveys. We present the [Fe/H] and [$α$/Fe] abundances for 113 HALO7D stars in the Galactocentric radial range of $\sim 10-40$ kpc. Using the full 7D chemodynamical data (3D positions, 3D velocities, and abundances) of HALO7D, we measure the velocity anisotropy, $β$, of the halo velocity ellipsoid for each field and for different metallicity-binned subsamples. We find that two of the four fields have stars on very radial orbits, while the remaining two have stars on more isotropic orbits. Separating the stars into high, mid, and low [Fe/H] bins at $-2.2$ dex and $-1.1$ dex for each field separately, we find differences in the anisotropies between the fields and between the bins; some fields appear dominated by radial orbits in all bins while other fields show variation between the [Fe/H] bins. These chemodynamical differences are evidence that the HALO7D fields have different fractional contributions from the progenitors that built up the MW stellar halo. Our results highlight the additional information that is available on smaller spatial scales when compared to results from a spherical average of the stellar halo.

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