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Kevin Ellis

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin Ellis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Induction and Inquiry via Probabilistic Reasoning over Language and Code

How humans grow and maintain abstract knowledge from the sparse, streaming noisy data of experience is a longstanding challenge in cognitive science. Any computational account must satisfy at least three desiderata: It must be (1) data-efficient and compute-efficient, (2) capture gradations of uncertainty to support intelligent inquiry and information gathering, and (3) be flexible enough to mentally represent the endless range of concepts people can learn and think about. Here we introduce a computational model that captures these three properties, by encoding symbolic knowledge as mental programs that combine natural language with source code, and sequentially inferring mental programs using LLM-guided Bayesian learning algorithms. Across a range of behavioral studies this model successfully reproduces quantitative signatures of human inductive learning and active inquiry, such as anchoring, garden-pathing, and other effects. In contrast, pure LLMs and classic Bayesian models either fail at the underlying task, or do not reproduce human behavior, or succeed only at exorbitant computational cost. These results suggest that one way humans continually grow their knowledge is by mentally representing many hypotheses spanning language-like and program-like representations, then revising those hypotheses to approximate Bayesian updates, while a bottom-up neural mechanism (an LLM) makes inference both tractable and learnable.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Twin: Playing an Unknown Game with a Test-Time Digital Twin

We present a Test-time World-model Inference (Twin) system, in which a frontier coding agent writes an executable world model for completing continual learning tasks, such as ARC-AGI-3 games. Traditional approaches hand-engineer such models, one custom design per task. Each game hides its rules and goal, and our system constructs them from simulation and interaction alone. Its inductive prior over grid games is strong enough to recover the true transitions of the game and the goal on nearly all levels. Replay validation happens in a twin world model. The harness enforces that an action is not made until the program reproduces every previous observed game transition. Each mismatch between a world model prediction and the actual action result becomes a counterexample that is used to repair the world model. Twin clears 179 out of 183 levels (97.8%), and does so more efficiently than humans in 158 out of 179 levels (88.3%). The system infers the goal before any reward on 156 of the levels it clears (87.2%), and in the remaining levels automatically discovers the goal by search. The benchmark scores completion and action efficiency, between 0 and 100, against humans playing each game for the first time. Played directly, the base model scores only 7.8%; an off-the-shelf harness increases it to 61.1%, whereas our twin world model increases the same base model to 93.3%, clearing 23 out of 25 games. Building a usable world model is simpler than anticipated, whereas the harder problem is inferring the right goal.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Playing ZendoWorld: Challenging AI Agents on Active Visual Concept Induction

A central challenge in building intelligent systems is enabling agents to jointly perceive complex inputs, form hypotheses about hidden patterns, and design informative experiments to test them. To study this problem, we propose ZendoWorld, a controlled interactive environment in which agents must infer a logical rule about visual game observations, acquire information by proposing new scenes, and refine their hypotheses based on feedback from the game environment. We evaluate several agents spanning pure VLM reasoning, Bayesian particle filtering, dynamic concept discovery, and neuro-symbolic methods. Our main findings are: (1) high accuracy in predicting labels for observed examples does not imply recovery of the underlying rule; (2) perception and induction are distinct bottlenecks for different agent classes; and (3) VLM-based agents propose near-uninformative experiments, failing to actively reduce hypothesis uncertainty. To compare these results, we collect human data on the task, which reveals a gap in inductive reasoning, particularly for more complex rules. Overall, ZENDOWORLD takes an important step toward evaluating intelligent agents and identifies concrete avenues for improvement, particularly in domains like scientific discovery.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

MPMWorlds: Material-Point-Method Simulations for Inferring and Extrapolating Physical Dynamics

To study the ability to infer physical dynamics from videos and extrapolate them forward in time, we assemble a dataset of 2D Material Point Method (MPM) physical simulations covering rich physical phenomena such as deformable objects, fluids, kinetic objects, and emitters. We study code generation and video diffusion approaches on this dataset, identifying their strengths and weaknesses by varying the amount of physically relevant side information. The code generation model, beyond giving a working demonstration of automatic synthesis of MPM simulations, reveals that such an approach struggles with inferring physical parameters from visual input, but relative to video diffusion, produces physically and temporally stable extrapolations forward in time, while the video diffusion model more strongly identifies geometric properties from visual input but produces physically implausible extrapolations.

cs.GR↗
arXiv2026

Hypothesis Generation and Inductive Inference in Children and Language Models

Real world decision-making requires constructing mental models under uncertainty over evidence, over the underlying causal rules, and over the state of the world itself. Which computational principles underpin human inference under such conditions, and do LLM-based agents exhibit similar behavior given matching constraints? We address these questions using an inductive inference Box Task in which participants, human children and LLM-based agents, infer a latent cause through sequential interaction with an uncertain environment. We formalize this task as program induction with Bayesian particle-based inference, admitting two complementary interpretations: (1) as a constraint satisfaction process over hypotheses, and (2) as a program synthesis problem in which hypotheses are executable programs evaluated against evidence. Using the constraint-based formulation, we show that children's behavior is best explained by a combination of subjective evidence reliability and online hypothesis generation, accounting for both their evidence-seeking patterns and their dissociation between task completion and rule generalization. Using the program synthesis formulation, we treat LLM-based agents as model organisms: controllable systems that allow systematic manipulation of task conditions. Across backends, LLM-based agents replicate children's responses to changes in evidence reliability and observability, including discounting unreliable evidence, seeking to resolve partial information, and dissociating between task completion and causal generalization. At the same time, LLM-based agents tend to over-observe and over-comply with instructions relative to children. These results suggest that while children and LLM-based agents adapt similarly to environmental structure, their information-seeking behavior exhibits distinct underlying costs and inductive biases.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Predicting Performance of Symbolic and Prompt Programs with Examples

LLM prompting is widely used for naturally stated tasks, yet it is unreliable it may succeed on a few test cases but fail at deployment time. We study performance prediction: given a program, either symbolic (e.g. Python) or a prompt executed on an LLM, and a few in-domain examples, predict its performance on unseen tasks from the same domain. We use a simple coin-flip model, treating each pass/fail program execution as a Bernoulli random variable, whose success probability is the programs unknown performance. In this model, performance depends entirely on: 1) the observed execution outcomes on test cases, and 2) a prior over performances. We compile empirical performance priors from a corpus of diverse programs and tasks, and find that performance for symbolic programs (e.g., Python) are all or nothing, while prompt programs have a diffuse prior with many nearly-correct programs. This difference explains why a few passing tests can certify symbolic programs but not prompt programs. Building on this insight, we develop RAP (Retrieved Approximate Prior), which retrieves similar tasks and prompt programs from an existing corpus to construct a proxy prior, which is then used to predict performance. We show RAP achieves solid performances.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Bongards at the Boundary of Perception and Reasoning: Programs or Language?

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have made great strides in everyday visual tasks, such as captioning a natural image, or answering commonsense questions about such images. But humans possess the puzzling ability to deploy their visual reasoning abilities in radically new situations, a skill rigorously tested by the classic set of visual reasoning challenges known as the Bongard problems. We present a neurosymbolic approach to solving these problems: given a hypothesized solution rule for a Bongard problem, we leverage LLMs to generate parameterized programmatic representations for the rule and perform parameter fitting using Bayesian optimization. We evaluate our method on classifying Bongard problem images given the ground truth rule, as well as on solving the problems from scratch.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

OmniCode: A Benchmark for Evaluating Software Engineering Agents

LLM-powered coding agents are redefining how real-world software is developed. To drive the research towards better coding agents, we require challenging benchmarks that can rigorously evaluate the ability of such agents to perform various software engineering tasks. However, popular coding benchmarks such as HumanEval and SWE-Bench focus on narrowly scoped tasks such as competition programming and patch generation. In reality, software engineers have to handle a broader set of tasks for real-world software development. To address this gap, we propose OmniCode, a novel software engineering benchmark that contains a broader and more diverse set of task categories beyond code or patch generation. Overall, OmniCode contains 1794 tasks spanning three programming languages - Python, Java, and C++ - and four key categories: bug fixing, test generation, code review fixing, and style fixing. In contrast to prior software engineering benchmarks, the tasks in OmniCode are (1) manually validated to eliminate ill-defined problems, and (2) synthetically crafted or recently curated to avoid data leakage issues, presenting a new framework for synthetically generating diverse software tasks from limited real-world data. We evaluate OmniCode with popular agent frameworks such as SWE-Agent and show that while they may perform well on bug fixing for Python, they fall short on tasks such as Test Generation and in languages such as C++ and Java. For instance, SWE-Agent achieves a maximum of 25.0% with DeepSeek-V3.1 on C++ Test Generation. OmniCode aims to serve as a robust benchmark and spur the development of agents that can perform well across different aspects of software development. Code and data are available at https://github.com/seal-research/OmniCode.

cs.SE↗
arXiv2026

Joint Learning of Hierarchical Neural Options and Abstract World Model

Building agents that can perform new skills by composing existing skills is a long-standing goal of AI agent research. Towards this end, we investigate how to efficiently acquire a sequence of skills, formalized as hierarchical neural options. However, existing model-free hierarchical reinforcement algorithms need a lot of data. We propose a novel method, which we call AgentOWL (Option and World model Learning Agent), that jointly learns -- in a sample efficient way -- an abstract world model (abstracting across both states and time) and a set of hierarchical neural options. We show, on a subset of Object-Centric Atari games, that our method can learn more skills using less data than baseline methods and possesses learning and generalization capabilities that the baselines do not have.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Benchmarking World-Model Learning with Environment-Level Queries

World models are central to building AI agents capable of flexible reasoning and planning. Yet current evaluations (i) test only properties measurable from observed interactions, such as next-frame prediction or task return, and (ii) do not test whether a learned model supports diverse queries about the environment. In contrast, humans build $\textit{general-purpose}$ models that can answer many different questions about an environment$\unicode{x2014}$including questions that require understanding global structure and counterfactual consequences. We propose $\textit{WorldTest}$: a protocol for evaluating whether agents learn models that support multiple $\textit{environment-level queries}\unicode{x2014}$questions whose answers depend on properties of the full environment, not just observed trajectories. Individually, these queries can target properties (e.g., reachability or the effects of interventions) that no single rollout distribution determines. Collectively, they assess model generality across query types. We instantiate WorldTest as $\textit{AutumnBench}$, a benchmark of 43 interactive grid-world environments and 129 tasks across three query families for both humans and learning agents. Experiments with 517 human participants and five frontier models show that humans substantially outperform these models, a gap we attribute to differences in exploration and belief updating. AutumnBench provides a framework for evaluating world-model learning in grid-world environments with environment-level queries, and WorldTest provides a template for extending such evaluations to richer domains.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

ExoPredicator: Learning Abstract Models of Dynamic Worlds for Robot Planning

Long-horizon embodied planning is challenging because the world does not only change through an agent's actions: exogenous processes (e.g., water heating, dominoes cascading) unfold concurrently with the agent's actions. We propose a framework for abstract world models that jointly learns (i) symbolic state representations and (ii) causal processes for both endogenous actions and exogenous mechanisms. Each causal process models the time course of a stochastic cause-effect relation. We learn these world models from limited data via variational Bayesian inference combined with LLM proposals. Across five simulated tabletop robotics environments, the learned models enable fast planning that generalizes to held-out tasks with more objects and more complex goals, outperforming a range of baselines.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

A Neuroscience-Inspired Dual-Process Model of Compositional Generalization

Deep learning models struggle with systematic compositional generalization, a hallmark of human cognition. We propose \textsc{Mirage}, a neuro-inspired dual-process model that offers a processing account for this ability. It combines a fast, intuitive ``System~1'' (a meta-trained Transformer) with a deliberate, rule-based ``System~2'' (a Schema Engine), mirroring the brain's neocortical and hippocampal--prefrontal circuits. Trained to perform general, single-step decomposition on a stream of random grammars, Mirage achieves $>$99\% accuracy on all splits of the SCAN benchmark in a task-agnostic setting. Ablations confirm that the model's systematic behavior emerges from the architectural interplay of its two systems, particularly its use of explicit, prioritized schemas and iterative refinement. In line with recent progress on recursive/recurrent Transformer approaches, Mirage preserves an iterative neural update while externalizing declarative control into an interpretable schema module. Our work provides a concrete computational model for interpreting how compositional reasoning can arise from a modular cognitive architecture.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

Refactoring Codebases through Library Design

Maintainable and general software allows developers to build robust applications efficiently, yet achieving these qualities often requires refactoring specialized solutions into reusable components. This challenge becomes particularly relevant as code agents become used to solve isolated one-off programming problems. We investigate code agents' capacity to refactor code in ways that support growth and reusability. We first investigate what makes a good refactoring, finding via simulation results and a human study that Minimum Description Length best correlates with preferable refactorings. We then present both a benchmark and a method for refactoring: MiniCode, a benchmark where multiple files must be refactored into a shared library, and Librarian, a sample-and-rerank method for generating reusable libraries. We compare Librarian to state-of-the-art library generation methods, and study it on real-world code bases.

cs.SE↗
arXiv2025

Programmatic Video Prediction Using Large Language Models

The task of estimating the world model describing the dynamics of a real world process assumes immense importance for anticipating and preparing for future outcomes. For applications such as video surveillance, robotics applications, autonomous driving, etc. this objective entails synthesizing plausible visual futures, given a few frames of a video to set the visual context. Towards this end, we propose ProgGen, which undertakes the task of video frame prediction by representing the dynamics of the video using a set of neuro-symbolic, human-interpretable set of states (one per frame) by leveraging the inductive biases of Large (Vision) Language Models (LLM/VLM). In particular, ProgGen utilizes LLM/VLM to synthesize programs: (i) to estimate the states of the video, given the visual context (i.e. the frames); (ii) to predict the states corresponding to future time steps by estimating the transition dynamics; (iii) to render the predicted states as visual RGB-frames. Empirical evaluations reveal that our proposed method outperforms competing techniques at the task of video frame prediction in two challenging environments: (i) PhyWorld (ii) Cart Pole. Additionally, ProgGen permits counter-factual reasoning and interpretable video generation attesting to its effectiveness and generalizability for video generation tasks.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

PoE-World: Compositional World Modeling with Products of Programmatic Experts

Learning how the world works is central to building AI agents that can adapt to complex environments. Traditional world models based on deep learning demand vast amounts of training data, and do not flexibly update their knowledge from sparse observations. Recent advances in program synthesis using Large Language Models (LLMs) give an alternate approach which learns world models represented as source code, supporting strong generalization from little data. To date, application of program-structured world models remains limited to natural language and grid-world domains. We introduce a novel program synthesis method for effectively modeling complex, non-gridworld domains by representing a world model as an exponentially-weighted product of programmatic experts (PoE-World) synthesized by LLMs. We show that this approach can learn complex, stochastic world models from just a few observations. We evaluate the learned world models by embedding them in a model-based planning agent, demonstrating efficient performance and generalization to unseen levels on Atari's Pong and Montezuma's Revenge. We release our code and display the learned world models and videos of the agent's gameplay at https://topwasu.github.io/poe-world.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

LLM-Guided Probabilistic Program Induction for POMDP Model Estimation

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) model decision making under uncertainty. While there are many approaches to approximately solving POMDPs, we aim to address the problem of learning such models. In particular, we are interested in a subclass of POMDPs wherein the components of the model, including the observation function, reward function, transition function, and initial state distribution function, can be modeled as low-complexity probabilistic graphical models in the form of a short probabilistic program. Our strategy to learn these programs uses an LLM as a prior, generating candidate probabilistic programs that are then tested against the empirical distribution and adjusted through feedback. We experiment on a number of classical toy POMDP problems, simulated MiniGrid domains, and two real mobile-base robotics search domains involving partial observability. Our results show that using an LLM to guide in the construction of a low-complexity POMDP model can be more effective than tabular POMDP learning, behavior cloning, or direct LLM planning.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

Cognitive maps are generative programs

Making sense of the world and acting in it relies on building simplified mental representations that abstract away aspects of reality. This principle of cognitive mapping is universal to agents with limited resources. Living organisms, people, and algorithms all face the problem of forming functional representations of their world under various computing constraints. In this work, we explore the hypothesis that human resource-efficient planning may arise from representing the world as predictably structured. Building on the metaphor of concepts as programs, we propose that cognitive maps can take the form of generative programs that exploit predictability and redundancy, in contrast to directly encoding spatial layouts. We use a behavioral experiment to show that people who navigate in structured spaces rely on modular planning strategies that align with programmatic map representations. We describe a computational model that predicts human behavior in a variety of structured scenarios. This model infers a small distribution over possible programmatic cognitive maps conditioned on human prior knowledge of the world, and uses this distribution to generate resource-efficient plans. Our models leverages a Large Language Model as an embedding of human priors, implicitly learned through training on a vast corpus of human data. Our model demonstrates improved computational efficiency, requires drastically less memory, and outperforms unstructured planning algorithms with cognitive constraints at predicting human behavior, suggesting that human planning strategies rely on programmatic cognitive maps.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2025

Challenges and Paths Towards AI for Software Engineering

AI for software engineering has made remarkable progress recently, becoming a notable success within generative AI. Despite this, there are still many challenges that need to be addressed before automated software engineering reaches its full potential. It should be possible to reach high levels of automation where humans can focus on the critical decisions of what to build and how to balance difficult tradeoffs while most routine development effort is automated away. Reaching this level of automation will require substantial research and engineering efforts across academia and industry. In this paper, we aim to discuss progress towards this in a threefold manner. First, we provide a structured taxonomy of concrete tasks in AI for software engineering, emphasizing the many other tasks in software engineering beyond code generation and completion. Second, we outline several key bottlenecks that limit current approaches. Finally, we provide an opinionated list of promising research directions toward making progress on these bottlenecks, hoping to inspire future research in this rapidly maturing field.

cs.SE↗