arXiv subjects

Kevin J. Napier

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin J. Napier.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The size and mass distribution of cold classical TNOs for $5<H<13$

The cold classical trans-Neptunian objects (CCs) are the only observable \textit{in situ} population of planetesimal remnants believed to have escaped collisional grinding. Recent JWST observations make it possible to fit the differential absolute magnitude distribution $dN/dH$ of the CCs from $5 13$ is unwise, as the different analytic forms diverge. It remains unclear if $dN/dH$ turns over at faint $H.$ The uncertainty in the total mass of the CC belt is dominated by uncertainty in the relation between $M$ and $H$. A calibration using CC binaries suggests a total CC mass of 1.7--2.7$\times10^{-3}\,M_\oplus.$ A trend toward lower density and/or higher albedo for smaller bodies may be present in the data, and would lower the estimated total CC mass. Qualitative comparison of the derived mass distribution to the results of numerical simulations of the streaming instability (SI) suggest the simulations produce $dN/dM$ distributions that are more sharply peaked, and steeper at the bright end, than the CCs. Such differences could be ascribed to inhomogeneous formation conditions in the classical belt that are not yet included in modeling. The variety and uncertainty of $dN/dM$ derived from state-of-the-art SI simulations currently preclude any definitive test of the SI hypothesis.

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arXiv2026

The Luminosity Function of Ultra-Faint Trans-Neptunian Objects Detected by JWST

We present a definitive discovery of 27 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) using the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) aboard the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). By employing a shift-and-stack technique and a machine learning network geared specifically to identifying false-positive detections in JWST images produced through the shift-and-stack process, we achieved a 40\% detection threshold of $m_{F150W2}=28.8$ mag (corresponding to $m_r\sim29.8$ mag) across a sky area of $0.05 \ \text{deg}^2$. This marks the deepest Solar System survey to date, reaching magnitudes that allow us to explore never-before-seen regions of the TNO size distribution. Our faintest detection has $m_{F150W2}=29.3$ mag and diameter of $\sim10$ km (assuming 15\% albedo). Within our sample, we find that both the Cold and Hot TNO subpopulations exhibit a power-law slope. The distribution of apparent magnitudes of our nominal sample (detections at all epochs) are well fit by a single power law $dN/dm \propto 10^{αm}$ with $α=0.29^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$. The dynamically hot and cold subsamples in our discovery set are consistent with the same power law, suggesting that the planetesimal formation process yields similar slopes despite the differing disk conditions at the presumed $\sim25$ and $\sim45$~au formation regions of the two populations.

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arXiv2026

Combined JWST and HST Deep Imaging to Characterize the Smallest Known Trans-Neptunian Objects

We present optical-near-infrared (NIR) color measurements for small ($\leq 40$ km) Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) using coordinated and nearly simultaneous observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). JWST/NIRCam data provided detections and NIR photometry for faint TNOs, while HST/ACS and WFC3 imaging enabled recovery in the optical, together yielding optical-NIR colors spanning 0.35-3.2 $μ$m. Thirteen JWST-detected TNOs were recovered in the HST observations, and trailed PSF photometry was used to derive mean magnitudes, colors, and rotational lightcurves. The color distribution of our small cold classical TNO discoveries is narrow and consistent with the occupation of a single reflectance (color) sequence previously identified for larger cold classical TNOs. We find no evidence for a change in this sequence at smaller sizes. In contrast, the dynamically excited TNOs we discovered exhibit a broader range of colors consistent with multiple compositional classes seen at larger sizes. Lightcurve amplitudes were generally low for both dynamical groups in our sample. 2015 GK56, a previously known TNO in our field, displays a large-amplitude, structured lightcurve consistent with a contact binary. Our results indicate that the characteristic color distribution of TNOs extends to smaller sizes than previously studied, suggesting a primordial origin rather than size-dependent collisional processing.

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arXiv2026

Probabilistic Spectral Reconstruction of Trans-Neptunian Objects from Sparse Photometry: A Framework for Taxonomy, Survey Optimization, and Outlier Detection

Near-infrared (near-IR) spectroscopy provides critical constraints on the surface composition of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), but spectroscopic observations remain limited compared to broadband photometry. We develop a probabilistic latent-space framework to quantify how much spectral information is retained in sparse photometric measurements. Using a principal component representation trained on a sample of near-IR spectra, we model the spectral manifold of TNOs and perform Bayesian inference in this reduced space to reconstruct full spectra from photometry while propagating uncertainties. Leave-one-out cross-validation demonstrates that the dominant modes of spectral variability are low-dimensional: 4 to 5 principal components capture the structure relevant for taxonomic classification, while 8-10 components improve spectral reconstruction fidelity and uncertainty calibration. For most objects, the reconstructed spectra achieve empirical credible-interval coverage of 95 percent across wavelength. This suggests the diversity of near-IR spectral shapes is governed by structured, correlated surface processes rather than stochastic variation. Practically, we apply this framework to survey optimization, quantifying the information content of JWST/NIRCam filters to identify optimal configurations (e.g., F090W, F115W, F410M, F460M) for TNO taxonomy. Additionally, we demonstrate the pipeline's capability to detect and reconstruct rare spectral types, such as the peculiar Neptune Trojans 2006 RJ103 and 2011 SO277, by allowing constraining photometry to select low-probability intermediate models from the continuous topological manifold. Ultimately, this framework bridges the gap between sparse photometry and spectroscopy, providing a statistically rigorous tool to map the compositional structure of minor planets in upcoming large-scale surveys.

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arXiv2025

Onset of CN Emission in 3I/ATLAS: Evidence for Strong Carbon-Chain Depletion

Interstellar objects provide a direct window into the environmental conditions around stars other than the Sun. The recent discovery of 3I/ATLAS, a new interstellar comet, offers a unique opportunity to investigate the physical and chemical properties of interstellar objects and to compare them with those of comets in our own Solar System. In this Letter we present the results of a 10-night spectroscopic and photometric monitoring campaign with the 2.4 m Hiltner and 1.3 m McGraw-Hill telescopes at the MDM Observatory. The campaign was conducted between August 8 and 17 while 3I/ATLAS was inbound at heliocentric distances of 3.2 - 2.9 au. Our observations captured the onset of optical gas activity. Nightly spectra reveal a weak CN emission feature in the coma of 3I/ATLAS, absent during the first nights but steadily strengthening thereafter. We measure a CN production rate of $Q$(CN)$\sim6\times$10$^{24}$ s$^{-1}$, towards the lower end of activity observed in Solar System comets. Simultaneous photometry also indicates a small but measurable increase in the coma's radial profile and increasing $r$-band $Afρ$ with values in the order of $\sim300$ cm. We derived a gas-to-dust production ratio of $\log Q (\mathrm{CN})/Afρ\sim22.4$. Our upper limit on the C$_2$-to-CN ratio ($\log Q(\mathrm{C}_2)/Q(\mathrm{CN})\lesssim-0.8$) indicates that 3I/ATLAS is a strongly carbon-chain depleted comet. Further observations of 3I/ATLAS are required to verify the apparent carbon-chain depletion and to explore whether such composition represents a recurring trait of the interstellar comet population.

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arXiv2025

An Efficient Shift-and-Stack Algorithm Applied to Detection Catalogs

The boundary of solar system object discovery lies in detecting its faintest members. However, their discovery in detection catalogs from imaging surveys is fundamentally limited by the practice of thresholding detections at signal-to-noise (SNR) $\geq 5$ to maintain catalog purity. Faint moving objects can be recovered from survey images using the shift-and-stack algorithm, which coadds pixels from multi-epoch images along a candidate trajectory. Trajectories matching real objects accumulate signal coherently, enabling high-confidence detections of very faint moving objects. Applying shift-and-stack comes with high computational cost, which scales with target object velocity, typically limiting its use to searches for slow-moving objects in the outer solar system. This work introduces a modified shift-and-stack algorithm that trades sensitivity for speedup. Our algorithm stacks low SNR detection catalogs instead of pixels, the sparsity of which enables approximations that reduce the number of stacks required. Our algorithm achieves real-world speedups of $10$--$10^3 \times$ over image-based shift-and-stack while retaining the ability to find faint objects. We validate its performance by recovering synthetic inner and outer solar system objects injected into images from the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP). Exploring the sensitivity--compute time trade-off of this algorithm, we find that our method achieves a speedup of $\sim30\times$ with $88\%$ of the memory usage while sacrificing $0.25$ mag in depth compared to image-based shift-and-stack. These speedups enable the broad application of shift-and-stack to large-scale imaging surveys and searches for faint inner solar system objects. We provide a reference implementation via the find-asteroids Python package and this URL: https://github.com/stevenstetzler/find-asteroids.

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arXiv2025

Prospects of a New $L_5$ Trojan Flyby Target for the Lucy Mission

NASA's Lucy spacecraft is en route to conduct the first close encounter with Jupiter's Trojans. While most scheduled flybys lie in the $L_4$ cloud, the only $L_5$ target is the Patroclus-Menoetius binary. Since each flyby offers unique insights into target and population properties unattainable from Earth, we examine the feasibility of including an additional, yet unknown, $L_5$ target while minimizing the impact on Lucy's primary mission. We use the background $L_5$ Trojans brighter than the completeness limit to model their absolute magnitude, spatial, and orbital distributions. A semi-analytical approach estimates the number of Trojans accessible to Lucy for a given $Δv$ budget in both pre- and post-Patroclus scenarios. Our results indicate that, while it is unlikely that any suitable Trojan lies on Lucy's nominal path, a moderate $Δv$ investment ($35-50\,\mathrm{m/s}$) could enable a sub-kilometer ($500-700\,\mathrm{m}$) flyby prior to the Patroclus encounter. Post-Patroclus, the likelihood of a similar flyby is $\sim60\%$ for $Δv\sim$ 50 m/s. Simulations with synthetic Trojans reveal that potential targets cluster near the node opposite to the encounter window, producing an optimal search period in late 2026 for both scenarios. Surveying the densest $10\%$ of this region would require under 5 nights with Subaru/HSC or under 2 nights with Rubin, using shift-and-stack techniques. A successful sub-kilometric flyby would expand Lucy's Trojan target size range and provide new constraints on collisional evolution and the long-standing asymmetry in the $L_4/L_5$ clouds. This nodal-clustering strategy could guide target searches in future Lucy extensions or other planetary flyby missions.

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arXiv2025

From Colors to Spectra and Back Again: First Near-IR Spectroscopic Survey of Neptunian Trojans

In this work, we present 0.7-5.0 μm spectra of eight Neptunian Trojans (NTs) as observed by the JWST's NIRSpec instrument. The reddest NT, 2013 VX30, exhibits a unique spectrum with strong absorption features between 3 - 4 μm, while the bluest NT, 2006 RJ103, shows negligible water absorption. A principal component analysis comparing these spectra with those of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and Centaurs reveals that most NTs belong to the "Bowl-type" spectral group, while 2013 VX30 is categorized as "Cliff-type" in the Pinilla-Alonso et al. (2025) taxonomy. For the bluest NT in our sample, 2006 RJ103 shows some evidence that it may be related to carbonaceous asteroids. For the red object 2011 SO277, we find no close TNO spectral counterpart. Except for the true outlier 2011 SO277, NTs have better spectral analogs among Plutinos and distant Centaurs, suggesting that spectral variation within major groups may arise from current temperature and location, rather than solely from formation regions. Finally, we highlight optical slope (S') and near-IR slope (SIR1) as effective indicators for distinguishing spectral groups and identifying outliers. These findings enable the use of broad-band photometry to explore NT and TNO surface compositions, especially for faint objects, which will be directly applicable to large photometric surveys like the Dark Energy Survey and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's LSST.

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arXiv2025

Sorcha: Optimized Solar System Ephemeris Generation

Sorcha is a solar system survey simulator built for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and future large-scale wide-field surveys. Over the ten-year survey, the LSST is expected to collect roughly a billion observations of minor planets. The task of a solar system survey simulator is to take a set of input objects (described by orbits and physical properties) and determine what a real or hypothetical survey would have discovered. Existing survey simulators have a computational bottleneck in determining which input objects lie in each survey field, making them infeasible for LSST data scales. Sorcha can swiftly, efficiently, and accurately calculate the on-sky positions for sets of millions of input orbits and surveys with millions of visits, identifying which exposures these objects cross, in order for later stages of the software to make detailed estimates of the apparent magnitude and detectability of those input small bodies. In this paper, we provide the full details of the algorithm and software behind Sorcha's ephemeris generator. Like many of Sorcha's components, its ephemeris generator can be easily used for other surveys.

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arXiv2025

A Pan-STARRS Search for Distant Planets: Part 1

We present a search for distant planets in Pan-STARRS1. We calibrated our search by injecting an isotropic control population of synthetic detections into Pan-STARRS1 source catalogs, providing a high-fidelity alternative to injecting synthetic sources at the image level. We found that our method is sensitive to a wide range of distances, as well as all rates and directions of motion. We identified 692 solar system objects (109 of which are not yet listed in the Minor Planet Center's database), including 642 TNOs, 23 of which are dwarf planets. By raw number of detections, this makes our search the third most productive Kuiper Belt survey to date, in spite of the fact that we did not explicitly search for objects closer than 80 au. Although we did not find Planet Nine or any other planetary objects, we were able to show that the remaining parameter space for Planet Nine is highly concentrated in the galactic plane.

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arXiv2025

An Extremely Deep Rubin Survey to Explore the Extended Kuiper Belt and Identify Objects Observable by New Horizons

A proposed Vera C. Rubin Observatory Deep Drilling micro-survey of the Kuiper Belt will investigate key properties of the distant solar system. Utilizing 30 hours of Rubin time across six 5-hour visits over one year starting in summer 2026, the survey aims to discover and determine orbits for up to 730 Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) to an $r$-magnitude of 27.5. These discoveries will enable precise characterization of the KBO size distribution, which is critical for understanding planetesimal formation. By aligning the survey field with NASA's {\it New Horizons} spacecraft trajectory, the micro-survey will facilitate discoveries for the mission operating in the Kuiper Belt. Modeling based on the Outer Solar System Origin Survey (OSSOS) predicts at least 12 distant KBOs observable with the {\it New Horizons} LOng Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) and approximately three objects within 1~au of the spacecraft, allowing higher-resolution observations than Earth-based facilities. LORRI's high solar phase angle monitoring will reveal these objects' surface properties and shapes, potentially identifying contact binaries and orbit-class surface correlations. The survey could identify a KBO suitable for a future spacecraft flyby. The survey's size, depth, and cadence design will deliver transformative measurements of the Kuiper Belt's size distribution and rotational properties across distance, size, and orbital class. Additionally, the high stellar density in the survey field also offers synergies with transiting exoplanet studies.

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arXiv2024

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP). VII. The Strengths of Three Superfast Rotating Main-belt Asteroids from a Preliminary Search of DEEP Data

Superfast rotators (SFRs) are small solar system objects that rotate faster than generally possible for a cohesionless rubble pile. Their rotational characteristics allow us to make inferences about their interior structure and composition. Here, we present the methods and results from a preliminary search for SFRs in the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) data set. We find three SFRs from a sample of 686 main-belt asteroids, implying an occurrence rate of 0.4 -0.3/+0.1 percent - a higher incidence rate than has been measured by previous studies. We suggest that this high occurrence rate is due to the small sub-kilometer size regime to which DEEP has access: the objects searched here were as small as 500 m. We compute the minimum required cohesive strength for each of these SFRs and discuss the implications of these strengths in the context of likely evolution mechanisms. We find that all three of these SFRs require strengths that are more than that of weak regolith but consistent with many cohesive asteroid strengths reported in the literature. Across the full DEEP data set, we have identified ~70,000 Main-Belt Asteroids and expect ~300 SFRs - a result that will be assessed in a future paper.

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arXiv2024

Candidate Distant Trans-Neptunian Objects Detected by the New Horizons Subaru TNO Survey

We report the detection of 239 trans-Neptunian Objects discovered through the on-going New Horizons survey for distant minor bodies being performed with the Hyper Suprime-Cam mosaic imager on the Subaru Telescope. These objects were discovered in images acquired with either the r2 or the recently commissioned EB-gri filter using shift and stack routines. Due to the extremely high stellar density of the search region down stream of the spacecraft, new machine learning techniques had to be developed to manage the extremely high false positive rate of bogus candidates produced from the shift and stack routines. We report discoveries as faint as r2$\sim26.5$. We highlight an overabundance of objects found at heliocentric distances $R\gtrsim70$~au compared to expectations from modelling of the known outer Solar System. If confirmed, these objects betray the presence of a heretofore unrecognized abundance of distant objects that can help explain a number of other observations that otherwise remain at odds with the known Kuiper Belt, including detections of serendipitous stellar occultations, and recent results from the Student Dust Counter on-board the New Horizons spacecraft.

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arXiv2024

Can Neptune's Distant Mean-Motion Resonances Constrain Undiscovered Planets in the Solar System? Lessons from a Case Study of the 9:1

Recent observational surveys of the outer Solar System provide evidence that Neptune's distant $n$:1 mean-motion resonances may harbor relatively large reservoirs of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). In particular, the discovery of two securely classified 9:1 resonators, 2015 KE$_{172}$ and 2007 TC$_{434}$, by the Outer Solar System Origins Survey is consistent with a population of order $10^4$ such objects in the 9:1 resonance with absolute magnitude $H_r < 8.66$. This work investigates whether the long-term stability of such populations in Neptune's $n$:1 resonances can be used to constrain the existence of distant $5-10M_{\oplus}$ planets orbiting at hundreds of AU. The existence of such a planet has been proposed to explain a reported clustering in the orbits of highly eccentric "extreme" trans-Neptunian objects (eTNOs), although this hypothesis remains controversial. We engage in a focused computational case-study of the 9:1 resonance, generating synthetic populations and integrating them for 1 Gyr in the presence of 81 different test planets with various masses, perihelion distances, eccentricities, and inclinations. While none of the tested planets are incompatible with the existence of 9:1 resonators, our integrations shed light on the character of the interaction between such planets and nearby $n$:1 resonances, and we use this knowledge to construct a simple, heuristic method for determining whether or not a given planet could destabilize a given resonant population. We apply this method to the currently estimated properties of Planet 9, and find that a large primordial population in the 15:1 resonance (or beyond), if discovered in the future, could potentially constrain the existence of this planet.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) II. Observational Strategy and Design

We present the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) survey strategy including observing cadence for orbit determination, exposure times, field pointings and filter choices. The overall goal of the survey is to discover and characterize the orbits of a few thousand Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) on the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) Blanco 4 meter telescope. The experiment is designed to collect a very deep series of exposures totaling a few hours on sky for each of several 2.7 square degree DECam fields-of-view to achieve a magnitude of about 26.2 using a wide VR filter which encompasses both the V and R bandpasses. In the first year, several nights were combined to achieve a sky area of about 34 square degrees. In subsequent years, the fields have been re-visited to allow TNOs to be tracked for orbit determination. When complete, DEEP will be the largest survey of the outer solar system ever undertaken in terms of newly discovered object numbers, and the most prolific at producing multi-year orbital information for the population of minor planets beyond Neptune at 30 au.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) III: Survey characterization and simulation methods

We present a detailed study of the observational biases of the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project's (DEEP) B1 data release and survey simulation software that enables direct statistical comparisons between models and our data. We inject a synthetic population of objects into the images, and then subsequently recover them in the same processing as our real detections. This enables us to characterize the survey's completeness as a function of apparent magnitudes and on-sky rates of motion. We study the statistically optimal functional form for the magnitude, and develop a methodology that can estimate the magnitude and rate efficiencies for all survey's pointing groups simultaneously. We have determined that our peak completeness is on average 80\% in each pointing group, and our magnitude drops to $25\%$ of this value at $m_{25} = 26.22$. We describe the freely available survey simulation software and its methodology. We conclude by using it to infer that our effective search area for objects at 40 au is $14.8°^2$, and that our lack of dynamically cold distant objects means that there at most $8\times 10^3$ objects with $60 < a < 80$ au and absolute magnitudes $H \leq 8$.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) VI: first multi-year observations of trans-Neptunian objects

We present the first set of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) observed on multiple nights in data taken from the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP). Of these 110 TNOs, 105 do not coincide with previously known TNOs and appear to be new discoveries. Each individual detection for our objects resulted from a digital tracking search at TNO rates of motion, using two to four hour exposure sets, and the detections were subsequently linked across multiple observing seasons. This procedure allows us to find objects with magnitudes $m_{VR} \approx 26$. The object discovery processing also included a comprehensive population of objects injected into the images, with a recovery and linking rate of at least $94\%$. The final orbits were obtained using a specialized orbit fitting procedure that accounts for the positional errors derived from the digital tracking procedure. Our results include robust orbits and magnitudes for classical TNOs with absolute magnitudes $H \sim 10$, as well as a dynamically detached object found at 76 au (semi-major axis $a\approx 77 \, \mathrm{au}$). We find a disagreement between our population of classical TNOs and the CFEPS-L7 three component model for the Kuiper belt.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP): V. The Absolute Magnitude Distribution of the Cold Classical Kuiper Belt

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) is a deep survey of the trans-Neptunian solar system being carried out on the 4-meter Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam). By using a shift-and-stack technique to achieve a mean limiting magnitude of $r \sim 26.2$, DEEP achieves an unprecedented combination of survey area and depth, enabling quantitative leaps forward in our understanding of the Kuiper Belt populations. This work reports results from an analysis of twenty 3 sq.\ deg.\ DECam fields along the invariable plane. We characterize the efficiency and false-positive rates for our moving-object detection pipeline, and use this information to construct a Bayesian signal probability for each detected source. This procedure allows us to treat all of our Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) detections statistically, simultaneously accounting for efficiency and false positives. We detect approximately 2300 candidate sources with KBO-like motion at S/N $>6.5$. We use a subset of these objects to compute the luminosity function of the Kuiper Belt as a whole, as well as the Cold Classical (CC) population. We also investigate the absolute magnitude ($H$) distribution of the CCs, and find consistency with both an exponentially tapered power-law, which is predicted by streaming instability models of planetesimal formation, and a rolling power law. Finally, we provide an updated mass estimate for the Cold Classical Kuiper Belt of $M_{CC}(H_r < 12) = 0.0017^{+0.0010}_{-0.0004} M_{\oplus}$, assuming albedo $p = 0.15$ and density $ρ= 1$ g cm$^{-3}$.

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