arXiv subjects

Kevin McCloskey

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin McCloskey.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Efficacy of Scalable Airline-led Contrail Avoidance

Contrails account for a large portion of aviation's contribution to anthropogenic climate change. Navigational contrail avoidance is a promising solution to mitigate the warming caused by contrails. Prior trials testing navigational contrail avoidance have relied on bespoke integrations of contrail forecasts into airline operations. Here, we use a randomized control trial to test the feasibility of dispatcher-led contrail avoidance integrated into standard flight planning operations using a workflow that scales to an airline's entire network. We validated the efficacy of this intervention using satellite imagery and an automated flight-contrail attribution algorithm. Using this system, we observed an 11.6% reduction in contrail formation rate for the 1232 flights marked as eligible for contrail avoidance (intent-to-treat) relative to the flights in the control group (p = 0.011). In the 112 flights that flew contrail avoidance as planned (per-protocol flights), we observed a 62.0% lower contrail formation rate relative to the flights in the control group (p < 0.001). No statistically significant difference in fuel usage was observed between the two groups.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis

Persistent contrails make up a large fraction of aviation's contribution to global warming. We describe a scalable, automated detection and matching (ADM) system to determine from satellite data whether a flight has made a persistent contrail. The ADM system compares flight segments to contrails detected by a computer vision algorithm running on images from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. We develop a 'flight matching' algorithm and use it to label each flight segment as a 'match' or 'non-match'. We perform this analysis on 1.6 million flight segments. The result is an analysis of which flights make persistent contrails several orders of magnitude larger than any previous work. We assess the agreement between our labels and available prediction models based on weather forecasts. Shifting air traffic to avoid regions of contrail formation has been proposed as a possible mitigation with the potential for very low cost/ton-CO2e. Our findings suggest that imperfections in these prediction models increase this cost/ton by about an order of magnitude. Contrail avoidance is a cost-effective climate change mitigation even with this factor taken into account, but our results quantify the need for more accurate contrail prediction methods and establish a benchmark for future development.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

OpenContrails: Benchmarking Contrail Detection on GOES-16 ABI

Contrails (condensation trails) are line-shaped ice clouds caused by aircraft and are likely the largest contributor of aviation-induced climate change. Contrail avoidance is potentially an inexpensive way to significantly reduce the climate impact of aviation. An automated contrail detection system is an essential tool to develop and evaluate contrail avoidance systems. In this paper, we present a human-labeled dataset named OpenContrails to train and evaluate contrail detection models based on GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data. We propose and evaluate a contrail detection model that incorporates temporal context for improved detection accuracy. The human labeled dataset and the contrail detection outputs are publicly available on Google Cloud Storage at gs://goes_contrails_dataset.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Dataset of Random Relaxations for Crystal Structure Search of Li-Si System

Crystal structure search is a long-standing challenge in materials design. We present a dataset of more than 100,000 structural relaxations of potential battery anode materials from randomized structures using density functional theory calculations. We illustrate the usage of the dataset by training graph neural networks to predict structural relaxations from randomly generated structures. Our models directly predict stresses in addition to forces, which allows them to accurately simulate relaxations of both ionic positions and lattice vectors. We show that models trained on the molecular dynamics simulations fail to simulate relaxations from random structures, while training on our data leads to up to two orders of magnitude decrease in error for the same task. Our model is able to find an experimentally verified structure of a stoichiometry held out from training. We find that randomly perturbing atomic positions during training improves both the accuracy and out of domain generalization of the models.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2020

Machine learning on DNA-encoded libraries: A new paradigm for hit-finding

DNA-encoded small molecule libraries (DELs) have enabled discovery of novel inhibitors for many distinct protein targets of therapeutic value through screening of libraries with up to billions of unique small molecules. We demonstrate a new approach applying machine learning to DEL selection data by identifying active molecules from a large commercial collection and a virtual library of easily synthesizable compounds. We train models using only DEL selection data and apply automated or automatable filters with chemist review restricted to the removal of molecules with potential for instability or reactivity. We validate this approach with a large prospective study (nearly 2000 compounds tested) across three diverse protein targets: sEH (a hydrolase), ERα (a nuclear receptor), and c-KIT (a kinase). The approach is effective, with an overall hit rate of {\sim}30% at 30 {\textmu}M and discovery of potent compounds (IC50 <10 nM) for every target. The model makes useful predictions even for molecules dissimilar to the original DEL and the compounds identified are diverse, predominantly drug-like, and different from known ligands. Collectively, the quality and quantity of DEL selection data; the power of modern machine learning methods; and access to large, inexpensive, commercially-available libraries creates a powerful new approach for hit finding.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2019

Using Attribution to Decode Dataset Bias in Neural Network Models for Chemistry

Deep neural networks have achieved state of the art accuracy at classifying molecules with respect to whether they bind to specific protein targets. A key breakthrough would occur if these models could reveal the fragment pharmacophores that are causally involved in binding. Extracting chemical details of binding from the networks could potentially lead to scientific discoveries about the mechanisms of drug actions. But doing so requires shining light into the black box that is the trained neural network model, a task that has proved difficult across many domains. Here we show how the binding mechanism learned by deep neural network models can be interrogated, using a recently described attribution method. We first work with carefully constructed synthetic datasets, in which the 'fragment logic' of binding is fully known. We find that networks that achieve perfect accuracy on held out test datasets still learn spurious correlations due to biases in the datasets, and we are able to exploit this non-robustness to construct adversarial examples that fool the model. The dataset bias makes these models unreliable for accurately revealing information about the mechanisms of protein-ligand binding. In light of our findings, we prescribe a test that checks for dataset bias given a hypothesis. If the test fails, it indicates that either the model must be simplified or regularized and/or that the training dataset requires augmentation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Molecular Graph Convolutions: Moving Beyond Fingerprints

Molecular "fingerprints" encoding structural information are the workhorse of cheminformatics and machine learning in drug discovery applications. However, fingerprint representations necessarily emphasize particular aspects of the molecular structure while ignoring others, rather than allowing the model to make data-driven decisions. We describe molecular "graph convolutions", a machine learning architecture for learning from undirected graphs, specifically small molecules. Graph convolutions use a simple encoding of the molecular graph---atoms, bonds, distances, etc.---which allows the model to take greater advantage of information in the graph structure. Although graph convolutions do not outperform all fingerprint-based methods, they (along with other graph-based methods) represent a new paradigm in ligand-based virtual screening with exciting opportunities for future improvement.

stat.ML↗