arXiv subjects

Kevin Zahnle

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin Zahnle.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Toward Inferring the Surface Fluxes of Biosignature Gases on Rocky Exoplanets from Telescope Spectra

The James Webb Space Telescope and the future Habitable Worlds Observatory aim to discover exoplanet atmospheric spectra that detect life. Currently, most existing spectral "retrieval" algorithms focus on inferring the abundances of biogenic gases from these spectra. However, abundances are hard to interpret as signatures of life because they are modified by photochemistry, climate, and atmospheric escape. To address this problem, we develop a method for inferring the fluxes of gases at a planetary surface by inverting a coupled photochemical-climate model. As a proof-of-concept, we apply the approach to a synthetic 10-transit JWST NIRSpec Prism spectrum of TRAPPIST-1 e assuming it hosts a biosphere similar to the Archean Earth's. The retrieval confidently detects CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ and can constrain the flux of CH$_4$ into the atmosphere to within approximately 1.5 orders of magnitude (68$\%$ credible interval) provided that TRAPPIST-1's near-UV spectrum is accurately known. We demonstrate how inferred surface gas fluxes naturally fold into a probabilistic assessment of life, finding that ~ 80$\%$ of the surface gas flux posterior is consistent with a CH$_4$-producing metabolism for our nominal test case. As with any inverse problem, these results are conditional on a number of assumptions in our forward model. Overall, we argue that increasing the robustness of life detection on exoplanets requires moving beyond atmospheric abundances toward inference of the surface fluxes that sustain them.

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arXiv2025

The Open-Source Photochem Code: A General Chemical and Climate Model for Interpreting (Exo)Planet Observations

With the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope, we are firmly in the era of exoplanet atmosphere characterization. Understanding exoplanet spectra requires atmospheric chemical and climate models that span the diversity of planetary atmospheres. Here, we present a more general chemical and climate model of planetary atmospheres. Specifically, we introduce the open-source, one-dimensional photochemical and climate code Photochem, and benchmark the model against the observed compositions and climates of Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter and Titan with a single set of kinetics, thermodynamics and opacities. We also model the chemistry of the hot Jupiter exoplanet WASP-39b. All simulations are open-source and reproducible. To first order, Photochem broadly reproduces the gas-phase chemistry and pressure-temperature profiles of all six planets. The largest model-data discrepancies are found in Venus's sulfur chemistry, motivating future experimental work on sulfur kinetics and spacecraft missions to Venus. We also find that clouds and hazes are important for the energy balance of Venus, Earth, Mars and Titan, and that accurately predicting aerosols with Photochem is challenging. Finally, we benchmark Photochem against the popular VULCAN and HELIOS photochemistry and climate models, finding excellent agreement for the same inputs; we also find that Photochem simulates atmospheres 2 to 100 time more efficiently. These results show that Photochem provides a comparatively general description of atmospheric chemistry and physics that can be leveraged to study Solar System worlds or interpret telescope observations of exoplanets.

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arXiv2025

The Sonora Substellar Atmosphere Models. V: A Correction to the Disequilibrium Abundance of CO$_2$ for Sonora Elf Owl

To aid the interpretation of observations of substellar atmospheres, Mukherjee et al. (2024) created the Sonora Elf Owl grid of model atmospheres, simulations that accounted for disequilibrium quench chemistry. However, Sonora Elf Owl did not accurately estimate CO$_2$ quenching because the models quenched the gas with respect to the full atmosphere equilibrium, but CO$_2$ should have instead been quenched with respect to the disequilibrium (i.e., quenched) abundance of CO. As a result, Sonora Elf Owl under-predicted the CO$_2$ abundance by several order of magnitude in some instances, an amount that JWST is sensitive to. Here, we release version two of the Sonora Elf Owl grid which has corrected CO$_2$ concentrations. Additionally, in version two we remove PH$_3$ as a spectral contributor since our spectra consistently contained too much PH$_3$ absorption. The new spectra can be found as an update to the original Zenodo postings.

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arXiv2025

HCN and C2H2 in the atmosphere of a T8.5+T9 brown dwarf binary

T-type brown dwarfs present an opportunity to explore atmospheres teeming with molecules such as H2O, CH4 and NH3, which exhibit a wealth of absorption features in the mid-infrared. With JWST, we can finally explore this chemistry in detail, including for the coldest brown dwarfs that were not yet discovered in the Spitzer era. This allows precise derivations of the molecular abundances, which in turn informs our understanding of vertical transport in these atmospheres and can provide clues about the formation of cold brown dwarfs and exoplanets. This study presents the first JWST/MRS mid-IR spectrum (R ~ 1500-3000) of a T-dwarf: the T8.5+T9 brown dwarf binary WISE J045853.90+643451.9. We fit the spectrum using a parameterized P-T profile and free molecular abundances (i.e., a retrieval analysis), treating the binary as unresolved. We find a good fit with a cloud-free atmosphere and identify H2O, CH4 and NH3 features. Moreover, we make the first detections of HCN and C2H2 (at 13.4$\sigma$ and 9.5$\sigma$ respectively) in any brown dwarf atmosphere. The detection of HCN suggests intense vertical mixing ($K_{zz}\sim10^{11}$cm$^2$s$^{-1}$), challenging previous literature derivations of $K_{zz}$ values for T-type brown dwarfs. Even more surprising is the C2H2 detection, which cannot be explained with existing atmospheric models for isolated objects. This result challenges model assumptions about vertical mixing, and/or our understanding of the C2H2 chemical network, or might hint towards a more complex atmospheric processes such as magnetic fields driving aurorae, or lightning driving ionization. These findings open a new frontier in studying carbon chemistry within brown dwarf atmospheres.

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arXiv2024

JWST observations of K2-18b can be explained by a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no habitable surface

JWST recently measured the transmission spectrum of K2-18b, a habitable-zone sub-Neptune exoplanet, detecting CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ in its atmosphere. The discovery paper argued the data are best explained by a habitable "Hycean" world, consisting of a relatively thin H$_2$-dominated atmosphere overlying a liquid water ocean. Here, we use photochemical and climate models to simulate K2-18b as both a Hycean planet and a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no defined surface. We find that a lifeless Hycean world is hard to reconcile with the JWST observations because photochemistry only supports $< 1$ part-per-million CH$_4$ in such an atmosphere while the data suggest about $\sim 1\%$ of the gas is present. Sustaining %-level CH$_4$ on a Hycean K2-18b may require the presence of a methane-producing biosphere, similar to microbial life on Earth $\sim 3$ billion years ago. On the other hand, we predict that a gas-rich mini-Neptune with $100 \times$ solar metallicity should have 4% CH$_4$ and nearly 0.1% CO$_2$, which are compatible with the JWST data. The CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ are produced thermochemically in the deep atmosphere and mixed upward to the low pressures sensitive to transmission spectroscopy. The model predicts H$_2$O, NH$_3$ and CO abundances broadly consistent with the non-detections. Given the additional obstacles to maintaining a stable temperate climate on Hycean worlds due to H$_2$ escape and potential supercriticality at depth, we favor the mini-Neptune interpretation because of its relative simplicity and because it does not need a biosphere or other unknown source of methane to explain the data.

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arXiv2020

Creation and Evolution of Impact-generated Reduced Atmospheres of Early Earth

The origin of life on Earth seems to demand a highly reduced early atmosphere, rich in CH4, H2, and NH3, but geological evidence suggests that Earth's mantle has always been relatively oxidized and its emissions dominated by CO2 H2O, and N2. The paradox can be resolved by exploiting the reducing power inherent in the "late veneer," i.e., material accreted by Earth after the Moon-forming impact. Isotopic evidence indicates that the late veneer consisted of extremely dry, highly reduced inner solar system materials, suggesting that Earth's oceans were already present when the late veneer came. The major primary product of reaction between the late veneer's iron and Earth's water was H2. Ocean vaporizing impacts generate high pressures and long cooling times that favor CH4 and NH3. Impacts too small to vaporize the oceans are much less productive of CH4 and NH3, unless (i) catalysts were available to speed their formation, or (ii) additional reducing power was extracted from pre-existing crustal or mantle materials. The transient H2-CH4 atmospheres evolve photochemically to generate nitrogenated hydrocarbons at rates determined by solar radiation and hydrogen escape, on timescales ranging up to tens of millions of years and with cumulative organic production ranging up to half a kilometer. Roughly one ocean of hydrogen escapes. The atmosphere after the methane's gone is typically H2 and CO rich, with eventual oxidation to CO2 rate-limited by water photolysis and hydrogen escape.

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arXiv2018

An optical transmission spectrum for the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-121b measured with the Hubble Space Telescope

We present an atmospheric transmission spectrum for the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-121b, measured using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Across the 0.47-1 micron wavelength range, the data imply an atmospheric opacity comparable to - and in some spectroscopic channels exceeding - that previously measured at near-infrared wavelengths (1.15-1.65 micron). Wavelength-dependent variations in the opacity rule out a gray cloud deck at a confidence level of 3.8-sigma and may instead be explained by VO spectral bands. We find a cloud-free model assuming chemical equilibrium for a temperature of 1500K and metal enrichment of 10-30x solar matches these data well. Using a free-chemistry retrieval analysis, we estimate a VO abundance of -6.6(-0.3,+0.2) dex. We find no evidence for TiO and place a 3-sigma upper limit of -7.9 dex on its abundance, suggesting TiO may have condensed from the gas phase at the day-night limb. The opacity rises steeply at the shortest wavelengths, increasing by approximately five pressure scale heights from 0.47 to 0.3 micron in wavelength. If this feature is caused by Rayleigh scattering due to uniformly-distributed aerosols, it would imply an unphysically high temperature of 6810+/-1530K. One alternative explanation for the short-wavelength rise is absorption due to SH (mercapto radical), which has been predicted as an important product of non-equilibrium chemistry in hot Jupiter atmospheres. Irrespective of the identity of the NUV absorber, it likely captures a significant amount of incident stellar radiation at low pressures, thus playing a significant role in the overall energy budget, thermal structure, and circulation of the atmosphere.

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arXiv2017

Sulfur Hazes in Giant Exoplanet Atmospheres: Impacts on Reflected Light Spectra

Recent work has shown that sulfur hazes may arise in the atmospheres of some giant exoplanets due to the photolysis of H$_{2}$S. We investigate the impact such a haze would have on an exoplanet's geometric albedo spectrum and how it may affect the direct imaging results of WFIRST, a planned NASA space telescope. For temperate (250 K $<$ T$_{\rm eq}$ $<$ 700 K) Jupiter--mass planets, photochemical destruction of H$_{2}$S results in the production of $\sim$1 ppmv of \seight between 100 and 0.1 mbar, which, if cool enough, will condense to form a haze. Nominal haze masses are found to drastically alter a planet's geometric albedo spectrum: whereas a clear atmosphere is dark at wavelengths between 0.5 and 1 $μ$m due to molecular absorption, the addition of a sulfur haze boosts the albedo there to $\sim$0.7 due to scattering. Strong absorption by the haze shortward of 0.4 $μ$m results in albedos $<$0.1, in contrast to the high albedos produced by Rayleigh scattering in a clear atmosphere. As a result, the color of the planet shifts from blue to orange. The existence of a sulfur haze masks the molecular signatures of methane and water, thereby complicating the characterization of atmospheric composition. Detection of such a haze by WFIRST is possible, though discriminating between a sulfur haze and any other highly reflective, high altitude scatterer will require observations shortward of 0.4 $μ$m, which is currently beyond WFIRST's design.

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arXiv2016

Developing Atmospheric Retrieval Methods for Direct Imaging Spectroscopy of Gas Giants in Reflected Light I: Methane Abundances and Basic Cloud Properties

Upcoming space-based coronagraphic instruments in the next decade will perform reflected light spectroscopy and photometry of cool, directly imaged extrasolar giant planets. We are developing a new atmospheric retrieval methodology to help assess the science return and inform the instrument design for such future missions, and ultimately interpret the resulting observations. Our retrieval technique employs a geometric albedo model coupled with both a Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble Sampler (emcee) and a multimodal nested sampling algorithm (MultiNest) to map the posterior distribution. This combination makes the global evidence calculation more robust for any given model, and highlights possible discrepancies in the likelihood maps. As a proof-of-concept, our current atmospheric model contains 1 or 2 cloud layers, methane as a major absorber, and a H$_2$-He background gas. This 6-to-9 parameter model is appropriate for Jupiter-like planets and can be easily expanded in the future. In addition to deriving the marginal likelihood distribution and confidence intervals for the model parameters, we perform model selection to determine the significance of methane and cloud detection as a function of expected signal-to-noise in the presence of spectral noise correlations. After internal validation, the method is applied to realistic spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and HD 99492 c, a model observing target. We find that the presence or absence of clouds and methane can be determined with high confidence, while parameter uncertainties are model-dependent and correlated. Such general methods will also be applicable to the interpretation of direct imaging spectra of cloudy terrestrial planets.

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arXiv2015

Thermal Emission and Albedo Spectra of Super Earths with Flat Transmission Spectra

Planets larger than Earth and smaller than Neptune are some of the most numerous in the galaxy, but observational efforts to understand this population have proved challenging because optically thick clouds or hazes at high altitudes obscure molecular features (Kreidberg et al. 2014b). We present models of super Earths that include thick clouds and hazes and predict their transmission, thermal emission, and reflected light spectra. Very thick, lofted clouds of salts or sulfides in high metallicity (1000x solar) atmospheres create featureless transmission spectra in the near-infrared. Photochemical hazes with a range of particle sizes also create featureless transmission spectra at lower metallicities. Cloudy thermal emission spectra have muted features more like blackbodies, and hazy thermal emission spectra have emission features caused by an inversion layer at altitudes where the haze forms. Close analysis of reflected light from warm (~400-800 K) planets can distinguish cloudy spectra, which have moderate albedos (0.05-0.20), from hazy models, which are very dark (0.0-0.03). Reflected light spectra of cold planets (~200 K) accessible to a space-based visible light coronagraph will have high albedos and large molecular features that will allow them to be more easily characterized than the warmer transiting planets. We suggest a number of complementary observations to characterize this population of planets, including transmission spectra of hot (>1000 K) targets, thermal emission spectra of warm targets using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), high spectral resolution (R~10^5) observations of cloudy targets, and reflected light spectral observations of directly-imaged cold targets. Despite the dearth of features observed in super Earth transmission spectra to date, different observations will provide rich diagnostics of their atmospheres.

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arXiv2014

The Atmospheres of Earth-like Planets after Giant Impact Events

It is now understood that the accretion of terrestrial planets naturally involves giant collisions, the moon-forming impact being a well known example. In the aftermath of such collisions the surface of the surviving planet is very hot and potentially detectable. Here we explore the atmospheric chemistry, photochemistry, and spectral signatures of post-giant-impact terrestrial planets enveloped by thick atmospheres consisting predominantly of CO2, and H2O. The atmospheric chemistry and structure are computed self-consistently for atmospheres in equilibrium with hot surfaces with composition reflecting either the bulk silicate Earth (which includes the crust, mantle, atmosphere and oceans) or Earth's continental crust. We account for all major molecular and atomic opacity sources including collision-induced absorption. We find that these atmospheres are dominated by H2O and CO2, while the formation of CH4, and NH3 is quenched due to short dynamical timescales. Other important constituents are HF, HCl, NaCl, and SO2. These are apparent in the emerging spectra, and can be indicative that an impact has occurred. The use of comprehensive opacities results in spectra that are a factor of 2 lower in surface brightness in the spectral windows than predicted by previous models. The estimated luminosities show that the hottest post-giant-impact planets will be detectable with near-infrared coronagraphs on the planned 30m-class telescopes. The 1-4um region will be most favorable for such detections, offering bright features and better contrast between the planet and a potential debris disk. We derive cooling timescales on the order of 10^5-10^6 Myrs, based on the modeled effective temperatures. This leads to the possibility of discovering tens of such planets in future surveys.

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arXiv2013

A Framework for Characterizing the Atmospheres of Low-Mass Low-Density Transiting Planets

We perform modeling investigations to aid in understanding the atmospheres and composition of small planets of ~2-4 Earth radii, which are now known to be common in our galaxy. GJ 1214b is a well studied example whose atmospheric transmission spectrum has been observed by many investigators. Here we take a step back from GJ 1214b to investigate the role that planetary mass, composition, and temperature play in impacting the transmission spectra of these low-mass low-density (LMLD) planets. Under the assumption that these planets accrete modest hydrogen-dominated atmospheres and planetesimals, we use population synthesis models to show that predicted metal enrichments of the H/He envelope are high, with metal mass fraction Z_env values commonly 0.6 to 0.9, or ~100 to 400+ times solar. The high mean molecular weight of such atmospheres (μ~ 5-12) would naturally help to flatten the transmission spectrum of most LMLD planets. The high metal abundance would also provide significant condensible material for cloud formation. It is known that the H/He abundance in Uranus and Neptune decreases with depth, and we show that atmospheric evaporation of LMLD planets could expose atmospheric layers with gradually higher Z_env. However, values of Z_env close to solar composition can also arise, so diversity should be expected. Photochemically produced hazes, potentially due to methane photolysis, are another possibility for obscuring transmission spectra. Such hazes may not form above T_eq of ~800-1100 K, which is testable if such warm, otherwise low mean molecular weight atmospheres are stable against atmospheric evaporation. We find that available transmission data are consistent with relatively high mean molecular weight atmospheres for GJ 1214b and "warm Neptune" GJ 436b. We examine future prospects for characterizing GJ 1214b with Hubble and the James Webb Space Telescope.

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arXiv2013

Quantitatively Assessing the Role of Clouds in the Transmission Spectrum of GJ 1214b

Recent observations of the super-Earth GJ 1214b show that it has a relatively featureless transmission spectrum. One suggestion is that these observations indicate that the planet's atmosphere is vertically compact, perhaps due to a water-rich composition that yields a large mean molecular weight. Another suggestion is that the atmosphere is hydrogen/helium-rich with clouds that obscure predicted absorption features. Previous models that incorporate clouds have included their effect without a strong physical motivation for their existence. Here, we present model atmospheres of GJ 1214b that include physically-motivated clouds of two types. We model the clouds that form as a result of condensation in chemical equilibrium, as they likely do on brown dwarfs, which include KCl and ZnS for this planet. We also include clouds that form as a result of photochemistry, forming a hydrocarbon haze layer. We use a photochemical kinetics model to understand the vertical distribution and available mass of haze-forming molecules. We model both solar and enhanced-metallicity cloudy models and determine the cloud properties necessary to match observations. In enhanced-metallicity atmospheres, we find that the equilibrium clouds can match the observations of GJ 1214b if they are lofted high into the atmosphere and have a low sedimentation efficiency (fsed=0.1). We find that models with a variety of hydrocarbon haze properties can match the observations. Particle sizes from 0.01 to 0.25 micron can match the transmission spectrum with haze-forming efficiencies as low as 1-5%.

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arXiv2011

The Atmospheric Chemistry of GJ 1214b: Photochemistry and Clouds

Recent observations of the transiting super-Earth GJ 1214b reveal that its atmosphere may be hydrogen-rich or water-rich in nature, with clouds or hazes potentially affecting its transmission spectrum in the optical and very-near-IR. Here we further examine the possibility that GJ 1214b does indeed possess a hydrogen-dominated atmosphere, which is the hypothesis that is favored by models of the bulk composition of the planet. We study the effects of non-equilibrium chemistry (photochemistry, thermal chemistry, and mixing) on the planet's transmission spectrum. We furthermore examine the possibility that clouds could play a significant role in attenuating GJ 1214b's transmission spectrum at short wavelengths. We find that non-equilibrium chemistry can have a large effect on the overall chemical composition of GJ 1214b's atmosphere, however these changes mostly take place above the height in the atmosphere that is probed by transmission spectroscopy. The effects of non-equilibrium chemistry on GJ 1214b's transmission spectrum are therefore minimal, with the largest effects taking place if the planet's atmosphere has super-solar metallicity and a low rate of vertical mixing. Interestingly, we find that the best fit to the observations of GJ 1214b's atmosphere in transmission occur if the planet's atmosphere is deficient in CH4, and possesses a cloud layer at a pressure of ~200 mbar. This is consistent with a picture of efficient methane photolysis, accompanied by formation of organic haze that obscures the lower atmosphere of GJ 1214b at optical wavelengths. However, for methane to be absent from GJ 1214b's transmission spectrum, UV photolysis of this molecule must be efficient at pressures of greater than ~1 mbar, whereas we find that methane only photolyzes to pressures less than 0.1 mbar, even under the most optimistic assumptions. (Abridged)

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arXiv2011

The Role of Ejecta in the Small Crater Populations on the Mid-Sized Saturnian Satellites

We find evidence that crater ejecta play an important role in the small crater populations on the Saturnian satellites, and more broadly, on cratered surfaces throughout the Solar System. We measure crater populations in Cassini images of Enceladus, Rhea, and Mimas, focusing on image data with scales less than 500 m/pixel. We use recent updates to crater scaling laws and their constants to estimate the amount of mass ejected in three different velocity ranges: (i) greater than escape velocity, (ii) less than escape velocity and faster than the minimum velocity required to make a secondary crater (v_min), and (iii) velocities less than v_min. Although the vast majority of mass on each satellite is ejected at speeds less than v_min, our calculations demonstrate that the differences in mass available in the other two categories should lead to observable differences in the small crater populations; the predictions are borne out by the measurements we have made to date. Rhea, Tethys, and Dione have sufficient surface gravities to retain ejecta moving fast enough to make secondary crater populations. The smaller satellites, such as Enceladus but especially Mimas, are expected to have little or no traditional secondary populations because their escape velocities are near the threshold velocity necessary to make a secondary crater. Our work clarifies why the Galilean satellites have extensive secondary crater populations relative to the Saturnian satellites. The presence, extent, and sizes of sesquinary craters (craters formed by ejecta that escape into temporary orbits around Saturn before re-impacting the surface) is not yet well understood. Finally, our work provides further evidence for a "shallow" size-frequency distribution (slope index of ~2 for a differential power-law) for comets a few km diameter and smaller. [slightly abbreviated]

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arXiv2009

Planetary Formation and Evolution Revealed with a Saturn Entry Probe: The Importance of Noble Gases

The determination of Saturn's atmospheric noble gas abundances are critical to understanding the formation and evolution of Saturn, and giant planets in general. These measurements can only be performed with an entry probe. A Saturn probe will address whether enhancement in heavy noble gases, as was found in Jupiter, are a general feature of giant planets, and their ratios will be a powerful constraint on how they form. The helium abundance will show the extent to which helium has phase separated from hydrogen in the planet's deep interior. Jupiter's striking neon depletion may also be tied to its helium depletion, and must be confirmed or refuted in Saturn. Together with Jupiter's measured atmospheric helium abundance, a consistent evolutionary theory for both planets, including "helium rain" will be possible. We will then be able to calibrate the theory of the evolution of all giant planets, including exoplanets. In addition, high pressure H/He mixtures under giant planet conditions are an important area of condensed matter physics that are beyond the realm of experiment.

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