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Khalifa Es-Sebaiy

Publications and source records attributed to Khalifa Es-Sebaiy.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

New Berry-Esseen bounds for parameter estimation of Gaussian processes observed at high frequency

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the limiting variance of asymptotically stationary Gaussian processes observed at high frequency, using the second moment estimator (SME). We study rates of convergence of the central limit theorem for the SME in terms of the total variation, Kolmogorov and Wasserstein distances, using some novel techniques and sharp estimates for cumulants. We apply our approach to provide Berry-Esseen bounds in Kolmogorov and Wasserstein distances for estimators of the drift parameters of Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Moreover, we prove that most of our estimates are strictly sharper than the ones obtained in the existing literature.

math.PR

New Kolmogorov bounds in the CLT for random ratios and applications

We develop techniques for determining an explicit Berry-Esseen bound in the Kolmogorov distance for the normal approximation of a ratio of Gaussian functionals. We provide an upper bound in terms of the third and fourth cumulants, using some novel techniques and sharp estimates for cumulants. As applications, we study the rate of convergence of the distribution of discretized versions of minimum contrast and maximum likelihood estimators of the drift parameter of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Moreover, we derive upper bounds that are strictly sharper than those available in the literature.

math.PR

Wasserstein bounds in CLT of approximative MCE and MLE of the drift parameter for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes observed at high frequency

This paper deals with the rate of convergence for the central limit theorem of estimators of the drift coefficient, denoted $θ$, for a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X \coloneqq \{X_t,t\geq0\}$ observed at high frequency. We provide an Approximate minimum contrast estimator and an approximate maximum likelihood estimator of $θ$, namely $\widetildeθ_{n}\coloneqq {1}/{\left(\frac{2}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n}X_{t_{i}}^{2}\right)}$, and $\widehatθ_{n}\coloneqq -{\sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{t_{i-1}}\left(X_{t_{i}}-X_{t_{i-1}}\right)}/{\left(Δ_{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{t_{i-1}}^{2}\right)}$, respectively, where $ t_{i} = i Δ_{n}$, $ i=0,1,\ldots, n $, $Δ_{n}\rightarrow 0$. We provide Wasserstein bounds in central limit theorem for $\widetildeθ_{n}$ and $\widehatθ_{n}$.

math.ST

Gaussian and Hermite Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes

In the present paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the auto-covariance function for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes driven by Gaussian noises with stationary and non-stationary increments and for Hermite OU processes. Our results are generalizations of the corresponding results of Cheridito et al. \cite{CKM} and Kaarakka and Salminen \cite{KS}.

math.PR

Asymptotics of Yule's nonsense correlation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck paths: a Wiener chaos approach

In this paper, we study the distribution of the so-called "Yule's nonsense correlation statistic" on a time interval $[0,T]$ for a time horizon $T>0$ , when $T$ is large, for a pair $(X_{1},X_{2})$ of independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. This statistic is by definition equal to : \begin{equation*} ρ(T):=\frac{Y_{12}(T)}{\sqrt{Y_{11}(T)}\sqrt{Y_{22}(T)}}, \end{equation*} where the random variables $Y_{ij}(T)$, $i,j=1,2$ are defined as \begin{equation*} Y_{ij}(T):=\int_{0}^{T}X_{i}(u)X_{j}(u)du-T\bar{X}_{i}\bar{X_{j}}, \bar{X}_{i}:=\frac{1}{T}\int_{0}^{T}X_{i}(u)du. \end{equation*} We assume $X_{1}$ and $X_{2}$ have the same drift parameter $θ>0$. We also study the asymptotic law of a discrete-type version of $ρ(T)$, where $Y_{ij}(T)$ above are replaced by their Riemann-sum discretizations. In this case, conditions are provided for how the discretization (in-fill) step relates to the long horizon $T$. We establish identical normal asymptotics for standardized $ρ(T)$ and its discrete-data version. The asymptotic variance of $ρ(T)T^{1/2}$ is $θ^{-1}$. We also establish speeds of convergence in the Kolmogorov distance, which are of Berry-Esséen-type (constant*$T^{-1/2}$) except for a $\ln T$ factor. Our method is to use the properties of Wiener-chaos variables, since $ρ(T)$ and its discrete version are comprised of ratios involving three such variables in the 2nd Wiener chaos. This methodology accesses the Kolmogorov distance thanks to a relation which stems from the connection between the Malliavin calculus and Stein's method on Wiener space.

math.PR

Berry-Esseen bounds of second moment estimators for Gaussian processes observed at high frequency

Let $Z:=\{Z_t,t\geq0\}$ be a stationary Gaussian process. We study two estimators of $\mathbb{E}[Z_0^2]$, namely $\widehat{f}_T(Z):= \frac{1}{T} \int_{0}^{T} Z_{t}^{2}dt$, and $\widetilde{f}_n(Z) :=\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i =1}^{n} Z_{t_{i}}^{2}$, where $ t_{i} = i Δ_{n}$, $ i=0,1,\ldots, n $, $Δ_{n}\rightarrow 0$ and $ T_{n} := n Δ_{n}\rightarrow \infty$. We prove that the two estimators are strongly consistent and establish Berry-Esseen bounds for a central limit theorem involving $\widehat{f}_T(Z)$ and $\widetilde{f}_n(Z)$. We apply these results to asymptotically stationary Gaussian processes and estimate the drift parameter for Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.

math.ST

Least squares estimation for non-ergodic weighted fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process of general parameters

Let $B^{a,b}:=\{B_t^{a,b},t\geq0\}$ be a weighted fractional Brownian motion of parameters $a>-1$, $|b|<1$, $|b| 0$ of the weighted fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X:=\{X_t,t\geq0\}$ defined by $X_0=0; \ dX_t=θX_tdt+dB_t^{a,b}$. In this work, we provide least squares-type estimators for $θ$ based continuous-time and discrete-time observations of $X$. The strong consistency and the asymptotic behavior in distribution of the estimators are studied for all $(a,b)$ such that $a>-1$, $|b|<1$, $|b|<a+1$. Here we extend the results of \cite{SYY2,SYY} (resp. \cite{CSC}), where the strong consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the estimators are proved for $-\frac12<a<0$, $-a<b<a+1$ (resp. $-1<a<0$, $-a<b<a+1$).

math.PR

Optimal Berry-Esséen bound for Maximum likelihood estimation of the drift parameter in $ α$-Brownian bridge

Let $T>0,α>\frac12$. In the present paper we consider the $α$-Brownian bridge defined as $dX_t=-α\frac{X_t}{T-t}dt+dW_t,~ 0\leq t< T$, where $W$ is a standard Brownian motion. We investigate the optimal rate of convergence to normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the parameter $ α$ based on the continuous observation $\{X_s,0\leq s\leq t\}$ as $t\uparrow T$. We prove that an optimal rate of Kolmogorov distance for central limit theorem on the MLE is given by $\frac{1}{\sqrt{|\log(T-t)|}}$, as $t\uparrow T$. First we compute an upper bound and then find a lower bound with the same speed using Corollary 1 and Corollary 2 of \cite{kp-JVA}, respectively.

math.PR

Statistical analysis of the non-ergodic fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with periodic mean

Consider a periodic, mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X=\{X_t,t\geq0\}$ of the form $d X_{t}=\left(L(t)+αX_{t}\right) d t+ dB^H_{t}, \quad t \geq 0$, where $L(t)=\sum_{i=1}^{p}μ_iϕ_i (t)$ is a periodic parametric function, and $\{B^H_t,t\geq0\}$ is a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst parameter $\frac12\leq H<1$. In the "ergodic" case $α<0$, the parametric estimation of $(μ_1,\ldots,μ_p,α)$ based on continuous-time observation of $X$ has been considered in Dehling et al. \cite{DFK}, and in Dehling et al. \cite{DFW} for $H=\frac12$, and $\frac12 0$, and for all $\frac12\leq H<1$. We analyze the strong consistency and the asymptotic distribution for the estimator of $(μ_1,\ldots,μ_p,α)$ when the whole trajectory of $X$ is observed.

math.PR

Berry-Esséen bound for drift estimation of fractional Ornstein Uhlenbeck process of second kind

In the present paper we consider the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process of the second kind defined as solution to the equation $dX_{t} = -αX_{t}dt+dY_{t}^{(1)}, \ \ X_{0}=0$, where $Y_{t}^{(1)}:=\int_{0}^{t}e^{-s}dB^H_{a_{s}}$ with $a_{t}=He^{\frac{t}{H}}$, and $B^H$ is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in(\frac12,1)$, whereas $α>0$ is unknown parameter to be estimated. We obtain the upper bound $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ in Kolmogorov distance for normal approximation of the least squares estimator of the drift parameter $α$ on the basis of the continuous observation $\{X_t,t\in[0,T]\}$, as $T\rightarrow\infty$. Our method is based on the work of \cite{kp-JVA}, which is proved using a combination of Malliavin calculus and Stein's method for normal approximation.

math.PR

Estimating drift parameters in a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model

We study the problem of parameter estimation for a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model defined as $dX_t=(μ+θX_t)dt+dG_t,\ t\geq0$ with unknown parameters $θ>0$ and $μ\in\mathbb{R}$, where $G$ is a Gaussian process. We provide least square-type estimators $\widetildeθ_T$ and $\widetildeμ_T$ respectively for the drift parameters $θ$ and $μ$ based on continuous-time observations $\{X_t,\ t\in[0,T]\}$ as $T\rightarrow\infty$. Our aim is to derive some sufficient conditions on the driving Gaussian process $G$ in order to ensure that $\widetildeθ_T$ and $\widetildeμ_T$ are strongly consistent, the limit distribution of $\widetildeθ_T$ is a Cauchy-type distribution and $\widetildeμ_T$ is asymptotically normal. We apply our result to fractional Vasicek, subfractional Vasicek and bifractional Vasicek processes. In addition, this work extends the result of \cite{EEO} studied in the case where $μ=0$.

math.PR

AR(1) processes driven by second-chaos white noise: Berry-Esséen bounds for quadratic variation and parameter estimation

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the quadratic variation for the class of AR(1) processes driven by white noise in the second Wiener chaos. Using tools from the analysis on Wiener space, we give an upper bound for the total-variation speed of convergence to the normal law, which we apply to study the estimation of the model's mean-reversion. Simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results.

math.PR

Volatility estimation in fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models

In this article we study the asymptotic behaviour of the realized quadratic variation of a process $\int_{0}^{t}u_{s}dY_{s}^{(1)}$% , where $u$ is a $β$-Hölder continuous process with $β> 1-H$ and $Y_{t}^{(1)}=\int_{0}^{t}e^{-s}dB^{H}_{a_s}$, where $a_{t}=He^{\frac{t% }{H}} $ and $B^H$ is a fractional Brownian motion, is connected to the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process of the second kind. We prove almost sure convergence uniformly in time, and a stable weak convergence for the realized quadratic variation. As an application, we construct strongly consistent estimator for the integrated volatility parameter in a model driven by $Y^{(1)}$.

math.PR

Parametrizations, weights, and optimal prediction: Part 1

We consider the problem of the annual mean temperature prediction. The years taken into account and the corresponding annual mean temperatures are denoted by $0,\ldots, n$ and $t_0$, $\ldots$, $t_n$, respectively. We propose to predict the temperature $t_{n+1}$ using the data $t_0$, $\ldots$, $t_n$. For each $0\leq l\leq n$ and each parametrization $Θ^{(l)}$ of the Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^{l+1}$ we construct a list of weights for the data $\{t_0,\ldots, t_l\}$ based on the rows of $Θ^{(l)}$ which are correlated with the constant trend. Using these weights we define a list of predictors of $t_{l+1}$ from the data $t_0$, $\ldots$, $t_l$. We analyse how the parametrization affects the prediction, and provide three optimality criteria for the selection of weights and parametrization. We illustrate our results for the annual mean temperature of France and Morocco.

stat.ME

Berry-Esséen bounds for parameter estimation of general Gaussian processes

We study rates of convergence in central limit theorems for the partial sum of squares of general Gaussian sequences, using tools from analysis on Wiener space. No assumption of stationarity, asymptotically or otherwise, is made. The main theoretical tool is the so-called Optimal Fourth Moment Theorem \cite{NP2015}, which provides a sharp quantitative estimate of the total variation distance on Wiener chaos to the normal law. The only assumptions made on the sequence are the existence of an asymptotic variance, that a least-squares-type estimator for this variance parameter has a bias and a variance which can be controlled, and that the sequence's auto-correlation function, which may exhibit long memory, has a no-worse memory than that of fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter }$H<3/4$.{\ \ Our main result is explicit, exhibiting the trade-off between bias, variance, and memory. We apply our result to study drift parameter estimation problems for subfractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and bifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with fixed-time-step observations. These are processes which fail to be stationary or self-similar, but for which detailed calculations result in explicit formulas for the estimators' asymptotic normality.

math.PR

Parameter Estimation for a partially observed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with long-memory noise

\noindent \textbf{Abstract}: We consider the parameter estimation problem for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X$ driven by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $V$, i.e. the pair of processes defined by the non-Markovian continuous-time long-memory dynamics $dX_{t}=-θX_{t}dt+dV_{t};\ t\geq 0$, with $dV_{t}=-ρV_{t}dt+dB_{t}^{H};\ t\geq 0$, where $θ>0$ and $ρ>0$ are unknown parameters, and $B^{H}$ is a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index $H\in (\frac{1}{2},1)$. We study the strong consistency as well as the asymptotic normality of the joint least squares estimator $(\hatθ_{T},\widehat{ρ}% _{T}) $ of the pair $( θ,ρ) $, based either on continuous or discrete observations of $\{X_{s};\ s\in \lbrack 0,T]\}$ as the horizon $T$ increases to +$\infty $. Both cases qualify formally as partial-hbobservation questions since $V$ is unobserved. In the latter case, several discretization options are considered. Our proofs of asymptotic normality based on discrete data, rely on increasingly strict restrictions on the sampling frequency as one reduces the extent of sources of observation. The strategy for proving the asymptotic properties is to study the case of continuous-time observations using the Malliavin calculus, and then to exploit the fact that each discrete-data estimator can be considered as a perturbation of the continuous one in a mathematically precise way, despite the fact that the implementation of the discrete-time estimators is distant from the continuous estimator. In this sense, we contend that the continuous-time estimator cannot be implemented in practice in any naïve way, and serves only as a mathematical tool in the study of the discrete-time estimators' asymptotics.

math.PR

Large deviation for lasso diffusion process

The aim of the present paper is to extend the large deviation with discontinuous statistics studied in \cite{BDE} to the diffusion $d\mathbf{x}^\varepsilon = -\{\mathbf{A}^\top (\mathbf{A} \mathbf{x}^\varepsilon - \mathbf{y}) + μsgn(\mathbf{x}^\varepsilon)\}dt + \varepsilon d\mathbf{w}$. The discontinuity of the drift of the diffusion discussed in \cite{BDE} is equal to the hyperplane $\{\mathbf{x} \in \mathbb{R}^d:\ x_1=0\}$, however, in our case the discontinuity is more complex and is equal to the set $\{\mathbf{x} \in \mathbb{R}^d:\ \prod_{i=1}^dx_i=0\}$.

math.PR