arXiv subjects

Kieran Marray

Publications and source records attributed to Kieran Marray.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Estimating Spillovers from Sampled Connections

Empirical researchers often estimate spillover effects by fitting linear or non-linear regression models to sampled network data. We show that common sampling schemes bias these estimates, potentially upwards, and derive biased-corrected estimators that researchers can construct from aggregate network statistics. Our results apply under different assumptions on the relationship between observed and unobserved links, allow researchers to bound true effect sizes, and to determine robustness to mismeasured links. As an application, we estimate the propagation of climate shocks between U.S. public firms from self-reported supply links, building a new dataset of county-level incidence of large climate shocks.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

How Do Expectations Affect Learning About Fundamentals? Some Experimental Evidence

We test how individuals with incorrect beliefs about their ability learn about an external parameter (`fundamental') when they cannot separately identify the effects of their ability, actions, and the parameter on their output. Heidhues et al. (2018) argue that learning makes overconfident individuals worse off as their beliefs about the fundamental get less accurate, causing them to take worse actions. In our experiment, subjects take incorrectly-marked tests, and we measure how they learn about the marker's accuracy over time. Overconfident subjects put in less effort, and their beliefs about the marker's accuracy got worse, as they learnt. Beliefs about the proportion of correct answers marked as correct fell by 0.05 over the experiment. We find no effect in underconfident subjects.

econ.GN↗