Hierarchical Latent Structure Learning through Online Inference
Learning systems must balance generalization across experiences with discrimination of task-relevant details. Effective learning therefore requires representations that support both. Online latent-cause models support incremental inference but assume flat partitions, whereas hierarchical Bayesian models capture multilevel structure but typically require offline inference. We introduce the \textbf{Hierarchical Online Learning of Multiscale Experience Structure (HOLMES) model}, a computational framework for hierarchical latent structure learning through online inference. HOLMES combines a variation on the nested Chinese Restaurant Process prior with sequential Monte Carlo inference to perform tractable trial-by-trial inference over hierarchical latent representations without explicit supervision over the latent structure. In simulations, HOLMES matched the predictive performance of flat models while learning more compact representations that supported one-shot backward transfer to higher-level latent categories. In a forward transfer task, HOLMES additionally achieved above-chance outcome prediction for stimuli with never-before-seen feature combinations, by exploiting abstract shape-level representations learned across diverse training instances. These results provide a tractable computational framework for discovering hierarchical structure in sequential data.