Closed-Loop Generative Selection: Convergence, Memory, and Noisy Oracles
Closed-loop generative selection has become a workhorse of computational drug discovery: a learned generative model proposes candidate molecules, a fitness oracle scores them, the best are kept, and the model is retrained on this elite set before the next round. Despite its wide use, the method has lacked a rigorous convergence theory, largely because retraining the model each round breaks the Markov property on which classical evolutionary-algorithm analysis relies. We develop a self-contained theory of convergence and expected running time for this class of algorithms. By recovering a Markov structure on an enlarged state space, we show that elitism makes the search absorbing, and we prove almost-sure convergence together with a runtime bound that decomposes the search into the time spent escaping each fitness level. We then analyse the role of the model's memory---how much of the past it is trained on. When learning improves steadily with more data, deeper memory never hurts; when it does not, an exit-time analysis pinpoints the optimal memory depth and shows that excess memory can actually slow convergence. The theory extends to multi-objective search and to noisy oracles: we quantify how many repeated evaluations certify progress under light-tailed noise, and how robust estimators restore guarantees under heavy tails. Recast in terms of oracle evaluations - the true bottleneck in drug design - the analysis yields a concrete, evaluation-minimal strategy. Areproducible study confirms the predictions, including the surprising cost of excess memory. We close with three open problems.