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Konstantin Shmakov

Publications and source records attributed to Konstantin Shmakov.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

A Foundation Model for Instruction-Conditioned In-Context Time Series Tasks

In-context learning (ICL) enables task adaptation at inference time by conditioning on demonstrations rather than updating model parameters. Although recent time-series foundation models incorporate contextual conditioning, retrieval, or example-based prompting, they typically rely on implicit positional structure or task-specific objectives rather than explicit instruction-conditioned input-output demonstrations. We introduce iAmTime, a time-series foundation model trained with instruction-conditioned amortized meta-learning to infer tasks directly from example demonstrations. iAmTime represents each episode as a structured prompt over historical context and future-known variables using specialized semantic tokens that attend to designated time-series regions, exchange information across demonstrations, and inject task information into the query representation. The model combines a Hierarchical Multi-Scope Transformer Encoder, which captures temporal and covariate dynamics while inferring latent task structure from demonstrated input-output mappings, with a Task-Conditioned Patch Decoder, which adapts decoding through expert-based routing. We train iAmTime on large-scale real and synthetic corpora using supervised and self-supervised instruction-conditioned tasks, including forecasting, imputation, reconstruction, classification, anomaly detection, and source de-mixing. Across diverse domains, frequencies, and horizons, iAmTime improves zero-shot adaptation over strong time-series foundation baselines on probabilistic and point forecasting benchmarks, while achieving competitive performance on non-forecasting tasks such as classification.

cs.LG

A Comprehensive Forecasting Framework based on Multi-Stage Hierarchical Forecasting Reconciliation and Adjustment

Ads demand forecasting for Walmart's ad products plays a critical role in enabling effective resource planning, allocation, and management of ads performance. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive demand forecasting system that tackles hierarchical time series forecasting in business settings. Though traditional hierarchical reconciliation methods ensure forecasting coherence, they often trade off accuracy for coherence especially at lower levels and fail to capture the seasonality unique to each time-series in the hierarchy. Thus, we propose a novel framework "Multi-Stage Hierarchical Forecasting Reconciliation and Adjustment (Multi-Stage HiFoReAd)" to address the challenges of preserving seasonality, ensuring coherence, and improving accuracy. Our system first utilizes diverse models, ensembled through Bayesian Optimization (BO), achieving base forecasts. The generated base forecasts are then passed into the Multi-Stage HiFoReAd framework. The initial stage refines the hierarchy using Top-Down forecasts and "harmonic alignment." The second stage aligns the higher levels' forecasts using MinTrace algorithm, following which the last two levels undergo "harmonic alignment" and "stratified scaling", to eventually achieve accurate and coherent forecasts across the whole hierarchy. Our experiments on Walmart's internal Ads-demand dataset and 3 other public datasets, each with 4 hierarchical levels, demonstrate that the average Absolute Percentage Error from the cross-validation sets improve from 3% to 40% across levels against BO-ensemble of models (LGBM, MSTL+ETS, Prophet) as well as from 1.2% to 92.9% against State-Of-The-Art models. In addition, the forecasts at all hierarchical levels are proved to be coherent. The proposed framework has been deployed and leveraged by Walmart's ads, sales and operations teams to track future demands, make informed decisions and plan resources.

cs.LG

Bid Optimization for Offsite Display Ad Campaigns on eCommerce

Online retailers often use third-party demand-side-platforms (DSPs) to conduct offsite advertising and reach shoppers across the Internet on behalf of their advertisers. The process involves the retailer participating in instant auctions with real-time bidding for each ad slot of their interest. In this paper, we introduce a bid optimization system that leverages the dimensional bidding function provided by most well-known DSPs for Walmart offsite display ad campaigns. The system starts by automatically searching for the optimal segmentation of the ad requests space based on their characteristics such as geo location, time, ad format, serving website, device type, etc. Then, it assesses the quality of impressions observed from each dimension based on revenue signals driven by the campaign effect. During the campaign, the system iteratively approximates the bid landscape based on the data observed and calculates the bid adjustments for each dimension. Finally, a higher bid adjustment factor is applied to dimensions with potentially higher revenue over ad spend (ROAS), and vice versa. The initial A/B test results of the proposed optimization system has shown its effectiveness of increasing the ROAS and conversion rate while reducing the effective cost per mille for ad serving.

eess.SY

Robust Consensus Clustering and its Applications for Advertising Forecasting

Consensus clustering aggregates partitions in order to find a better fit by reconciling clustering results from different sources/executions. In practice, there exist noise and outliers in clustering task, which, however, may significantly degrade the performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm -- robust consensus clustering that can find common ground truth among experts' opinions, which tends to be minimally affected by the bias caused by the outliers. In particular, we formalize the robust consensus clustering problem as a constraint optimization problem, and then derive an effective algorithm upon alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with rigorous convergence guarantee. Our method outperforms the baselines on benchmarks. We apply the proposed method to the real-world advertising campaign segmentation and forecasting tasks using the proposed consensus clustering results based on the similarity computed via Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistics. The accurate clustering result is helpful for building the advertiser profiles so as to perform the forecasting.

cs.LG

Demystifying Advertising Campaign Bid Recommendation: A Constraint target CPA Goal Optimization

In cost-per-click (CPC) or cost-per-impression (CPM) advertising campaigns, advertisers always run the risk of spending the budget without getting enough conversions. Moreover, the bidding on advertising inventory has few connections with propensity one that can reach to target cost-per-acquisition (tCPA) goals. To address this problem, this paper presents a bid optimization scenario to achieve the desired tCPA goals for advertisers. In particular, we build the optimization engine to make a decision by solving the rigorously formalized constrained optimization problem, which leverages the bid landscape model learned from rich historical auction data using non-parametric learning. The proposed model can naturally recommend the bid that meets the advertisers' expectations by making inference over advertisers' historical auction behaviors, which essentially deals with the data challenges commonly faced by bid landscape modeling: incomplete logs in auctions, and uncertainty due to the variation and fluctuations in advertising bidding behaviors. The bid optimization model outperforms the baseline methods on real-world campaigns, and has been applied into a wide range of scenarios for performance improvement and revenue liftup.

cs.IR

Do not Waste Money on Advertising Spend: Bid Recommendation via Concavity Changes

In computational advertising, a challenging problem is how to recommend the bid for advertisers to achieve the best return on investment (ROI) given budget constraint. This paper presents a bid recommendation scenario that discovers the concavity changes in click prediction curves. The recommended bid is derived based on the turning point from significant increase (i.e. concave downward) to slow increase (convex upward). Parametric learning based method is applied by solving the corresponding constraint optimization problem. Empirical studies on real-world advertising scenarios clearly demonstrate the performance gains for business metrics (including revenue increase, click increase and advertiser ROI increase).

cs.IR

Classical "Dressing" of a Free Electron in a Plane Electromagnetic Wave

The energy and momentum densities of the fields of a free electron in a plane electromagnetic wave include interference terms that are the classical version of the ``dressing'' of the electron the arises in a quantum analysis. The transverse mechanical momentum of the oscillating electron is balanced by the field momentum resulting from the interference between the driving wave and the static part of the electron's field. The interference between the wave and the oscillating part of the electron's field leads to a longitudinal field momentum and a negative field energy that compensate for the longitudinal momentum and kinetic energy of the electron. The interference terms are dominated by the near zone, so that as the wave passes the electron by the latter reverts to its energy and momentum prior to the arrival of the wave.

physics.acc-ph