arXiv subjects

Koroush Shirvan

Publications and source records attributed to Koroush Shirvan.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Analysis of Stakeholder Involvement in Nuclear Power Plant Cost Overruns and Implications for Contract Structuring

Existing evidence on nuclear power plant construction suggests that individual stakeholders involved in project delivery are often not responsible for all of the cost overruns in their scope of the project, which can lead to costly and time-consuming litigation to determine who is truly at fault for overruns. This study introduces a framework to model the share of overruns caused and received as payment by five stakeholders in a nuclear construction project: equipment suppliers, construction subcontractors, the design and management team, creditors, and the nuclear regulator. We then perform a contract analysis under three common contract structures - fixed-price, cost-plus, and performance-based - to show the profit misallocations that can result, revealing the advantages and disadvantages of each contract type for aligning stakeholder incentives. Regardless of the contract type chosen, strong owner involvement is crucial for project success, and we conclude with specific recommendations for project owners seeking to minimize cost overruns.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Cross-disciplinary Reactor-to-Repository Framework for Evaluating Spent Nuclear Fuel from Advanced Reactors

This study presents a cross-disciplinary reactor-to-repository framework to compare different advanced reactors with respect to their spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The framework consists of (1) OpenMC for simulating neutronics, fuel depletion, and radioactive decays; (2) NWPY for computing the repository footprint for SNF disposal given the thermal constraints; and (3) PFLOTRAN for simulating radionuclide transport in the geosphere to compute the peak dose rate, which is used to quantify the repository performance and environmental impact. We first perform the meta-analysis of past comparative analyses to identify the factors led previously to inconsistent conclusions. We then demonstrate the new framework by comparing five reactor types. Significant findings are that (1) the repository footprint is neither linearly related to SNF volume nor to decay heat, due to the repository's thermal constraint, (2) fast reactors have significantly higher I-129 inventory, which is often the primarily dose contributor from repositories, and (3) the repository performance primarily depends on the waste forms. The TRISO-based reactors, in particular, have significantly higher SNF volumes, but result in smaller repository footprints and lower peak dose rates. Our analysis highlights the diversity of these reactors, each of which should be evaluated individually. The open-source framework ensures proper cross-disciplinary connections between reactor simulations and environmental assessments, as well as the transparency/traceability required for such comparative analyses. It aims to support reactor designers, repository developers and policy makers in evaluating the impact of different reactor designs, with the ultimate goal of improving the sustainability of nuclear energy systems.

physics.app-ph↗

arXiv2024

Surpassing legacy approaches to PWR core reload optimization with single-objective Reinforcement learning

Optimizing the fuel cycle cost through the optimization of nuclear reactor core loading patterns involves multiple objectives and constraints, leading to a vast number of candidate solutions that cannot be explicitly solved. To advance the state-of-the-art in core reload patterns, we have developed methods based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for both single- and multi-objective optimization. Our previous research has laid the groundwork for these approaches and demonstrated their ability to discover high-quality patterns within a reasonable time frame. On the other hand, stochastic optimization (SO) approaches are commonly used in the literature, but there is no rigorous explanation that shows which approach is better in which scenario. In this paper, we demonstrate the advantage of our RL-based approach, specifically using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), against the most commonly used SO-based methods: Genetic Algorithm (GA), Parallel Simulated Annealing (PSA) with mixing of states, and Tabu Search (TS), as well as an ensemble-based method, Prioritized Replay Evolutionary and Swarm Algorithm (PESA). We found that the LP scenarios derived in this paper are amenable to a global search to identify promising research directions rapidly, but then need to transition into a local search to exploit these directions efficiently and prevent getting stuck in local optima. PPO adapts its search capability via a policy with learnable weights, allowing it to function as both a global and local search method. Subsequently, we compared all algorithms against PPO in long runs, which exacerbated the differences seen in the shorter cases. Overall, the work demonstrates the statistical superiority of PPO compared to the other considered algorithms.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2023

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning-based Approach for Pressurized Water Reactor Optimization

A novel method, the Pareto Envelope Augmented with Reinforcement Learning (PEARL), has been developed to address the challenges posed by multi-objective problems, particularly in the field of engineering where the evaluation of candidate solutions can be time-consuming. PEARL distinguishes itself from traditional policy-based multi-objective Reinforcement Learning methods by learning a single policy, eliminating the need for multiple neural networks to independently solve simpler sub-problems. Several versions inspired from deep learning and evolutionary techniques have been crafted, catering to both unconstrained and constrained problem domains. Curriculum Learning is harnessed to effectively manage constraints in these versions. PEARL's performance is first evaluated on classical multi-objective benchmarks. Additionally, it is tested on two practical PWR core Loading Pattern optimization problems to showcase its real-world applicability. The first problem involves optimizing the Cycle length and the rod-integrated peaking factor as the primary objectives, while the second problem incorporates the mean average enrichment as an additional objective. Furthermore, PEARL addresses three types of constraints related to boron concentration, peak pin burnup, and peak pin power. The results are systematically compared against conventional approaches. Notably, PEARL, specifically the PEARL-NdS variant, efficiently uncovers a Pareto front without necessitating additional efforts from the algorithm designer, as opposed to a single optimization with scaled objectives. It also outperforms the classical approach across multiple performance metrics, including the Hyper-volume.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Assessment of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms for Nuclear Power Plant Fuel Optimization

The nuclear fuel loading pattern optimization problem belongs to the class of large-scale combinatorial optimization. It is also characterized by multiple objectives and constraints, which makes it impossible to solve explicitly. Stochastic optimization methodologies including Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing are used by different nuclear utilities and vendors, but hand-designed solutions continue to be the prevalent method in the industry. To improve the state-of-the-art, Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL), in particular, Proximal Policy Optimization is leveraged. This work presents a first-of-a-kind approach to utilize deep RL to solve the loading pattern problem and could be leveraged for any engineering design optimization. This paper is also to our knowledge the first to propose a study of the behavior of several hyper-parameters that influence the RL algorithm. The algorithm is highly dependent on multiple factors such as the shape of the objective function derived for the core design that behaves as a fudge factor that affects the stability of the learning. But also, an exploration/exploitation trade-off that manifests through different parameters such as the number of loading patterns seen by the agents per episode, the number of samples collected before a policy update nsteps, and an entropy factor ent_coef that increases the randomness of the policy during training. We found that RL must be applied similarly to a Gaussian Process in which the acquisition function is replaced by a parametrized policy. Then, once an initial set of hyper-parameters is found, reducing nsteps and ent_coef until no more learning is observed will result in the highest sample efficiency robustly and stably. This resulted in an economic benefit of 535,000- 642,000 $/year/plant.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Development of a Two-Level ML Spatial-temporal Framework for Industrial Thermal Striping Applications

A data-driven framework for spatial-temporal prediction is proposed for reducing the computational cost of industrial thermal striping applications. The framework aims to efficiently identify the flow features and utilize them in spatiotemporal field predictions with a limited number of full-order simulations. In a parameterized system, the classical projection-based surrogates often suffer from Kolmogorov n-width limitations and have limited reducibility in highly-nonlinear systems. A two-level machine learning framework is proposed based on physics to address this issue. The selection of machine learning algorithms and information extraction is empowered by the idea that the thermal striping phenomenon is driven by large turbulent coherent flow structures. In the first level, the turbulence coherent structures are identified and collected by performing Proper Orthogonal Decomposition on local parameters. A tree-based machine-learning model is then used to down-select the reference structures based on the physical meaning of the modes. In the second level, the reference structure information is broken down into pointwise local points for training a deep structure corrector, which corrects the bias between the locally true and reference structures. Demonstration of a selected industrial application, triple jet, shows that the method can capture the fluctuation frequencies and amplitudes of the spatiotemporal fields in a highly nonlinear setting. The result shows that the prediction root-mean-squared error of velocity is 0.031 for all 3,844 spatial points.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2021

NEORL: NeuroEvolution Optimization with Reinforcement Learning

We present an open-source Python framework for NeuroEvolution Optimization with Reinforcement Learning (NEORL) developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. NEORL offers a global optimization interface of state-of-the-art algorithms in the field of evolutionary computation, neural networks through reinforcement learning, and hybrid neuroevolution algorithms. NEORL features diverse set of algorithms, user-friendly interface, parallel computing support, automatic hyperparameter tuning, detailed documentation, and demonstration of applications in mathematical and real-world engineering optimization. NEORL encompasses various optimization problems from combinatorial, continuous, mixed discrete/continuous, to high-dimensional, expensive, and constrained engineering optimization. NEORL is tested in variety of engineering applications relevant to low carbon energy research in addressing solutions to climate change. The examples include nuclear reactor control and fuel cell power production. The results demonstrate NEORL competitiveness against other algorithms and optimization frameworks in the literature, and a potential tool to solve large-scale optimization problems. More examples and benchmarking of NEORL can be found here: https://neorl.readthedocs.io/en/latest/index.html

cs.NE↗

arXiv2021

Machine learning-assisted surrogate construction for full-core fuel performance analysis

Accurately predicting the behavior of a nuclear reactor requires multiphysics simulation of coupled neutronics, thermal-hydraulics and fuel thermo-mechanics. The fuel thermo-mechanical response provides essential information for operational limits and safety analysis. Traditionally, fuel performance analysis is performed standalone, using calculated spatial-temporal power distribution and thermal boundary conditions from the coupled neutronics-thermal-hydraulics simulation as input. Such one-way coupling is result of the high cost induced by the full-core fuel performance analysis, which provides more realistic and accurate prediction of the core-wide response than the "peak rod" analysis. It is therefore desirable to improve the computational efficiency of full-core fuel performance modeling by constructing fast-running surrogate, such that fuel performance modeling can be utilized in the core reload design optimization. This work presents methodologies for full-core surrogate construction based on several realistic equilibrium PWR core designs. As a fast and conventional approach, look-up tables are only effective for certain fuel performance quantities of interest (QoIs). Several representative machine-learning algorithms are introduced to capture the complicated physics for other fuel performance QoIs. Rule-based model is useful as a feature extraction technique to account for the spatial-temporal complexity of operating conditions. Constructed surrogates achieve at least ten thousand time acceleration with satisfying prediction accuracy. Current work lays foundation for tighter coupling of fuel performance modeling into the core design optimization framework. It also sets stage for full-core fuel performance analysis with BISON where the computational cost becomes more burdensome.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2020

Improving Intelligence of Evolutionary Algorithms Using Experience Share and Replay

We propose PESA, a novel approach combining Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), Evolution Strategy (ES), and Simulated Annealing (SA) in a hybrid Algorithm, inspired from reinforcement learning. PESA hybridizes the three algorithms by storing their solutions in a shared replay memory. Next, PESA applies prioritized replay to redistribute data between the three algorithms in frequent form based on their fitness and priority values, which significantly enhances sample diversity and algorithm exploration. Additionally, greedy replay is used implicitly within SA to improve PESA exploitation close to the end of evolution. The validation against 12 high-dimensional continuous benchmark functions shows superior performance by PESA against standalone ES, PSO, and SA, under similar initial starting points, hyperparameters, and number of generations. PESA shows much better exploration behaviour, faster convergence, and ability to find the global optima compared to its standalone counterparts. Given the promising performance, PESA can offer an efficient optimisation option, especially after it goes through additional multiprocessing improvements to handle complex and expensive fitness functions.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2019

On the prediction of critical heat flux using a physics-informed machine learning-aided framework

The critical heat flux (CHF) corresponding to the departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) crisis is essential to the design and safety of a two-phase flow boiling system. Despite the abundance of predictive tools available to the thermal engineering community, the path for an accurate, robust CHF model remains elusive due to lack of consensus on the DNB triggering mechanism. This work aims to apply a physics-informed, machine learning (ML)-aided hybrid framework to achieve superior predictive capabilities. Such a hybrid approach takes advantage of existing understanding in the field of interest (i.e., domain knowledge) and uses ML to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch between the actual and domain knowledge-predicted target. A detailed case study is carried out with an extensive DNB-specific CHF database to demonstrate (1) the improved performance of the hybrid approach as compared to traditional domain knowledge-based models, and (2) the hybrid model's superior generalization capabilities over standalone ML methods across a wide range of flow conditions. The hybrid framework could also readily extend its applicability domain and complexity on the fly, showing an elevated level of flexibility and robustness. Based on the case study conclusions, the window-type extrapolation mapping methodology is further proposed to better inform high-cost experimental work.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2018

Demonstration of the Relationship between Sensitivity and Identifiability for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because "over-fitting" can theoretically be avoided. But it also poses challenges in the practical applications. One of the mostly concerned and unresolved problem is the "lack of identifiability" issue. With the presence of model discrepancy, inverse UQ becomes "non-identifiable" in the sense that it is difficult to precisely distinguish between the parameter uncertainties and model discrepancy when estimating the calibration parameters. Previous research to alleviate the non-identifiability issue focused on using informative priors for the calibration parameters and the model discrepancy, which is usually not a viable solution because one rarely has such accurate and informative prior knowledge. In this work, we show that identifiability is largely related to the sensitivity of the calibration parameters with regards to the chosen responses. We adopted an improved modular Bayesian approach for inverse UQ that does not require priors for the model discrepancy term. The relationship between sensitivity and identifiability was demonstrated with a practical example in nuclear engineering. It was shown that, in order for a certain calibration parameter to be statistically identifiable, it should be significant to at least one of the responses whose data are used for inverse UQ. Good identifiability cannot be achieved for a certain calibration parameter if it is not significant to any of the responses. It is also demonstrated that "fake identifiability" is possible if model responses are not appropriately chosen, or inaccurate but informative priors are specified.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification using the Modular Bayesian Approach based on Gaussian Process, Part 2: Application to TRACE

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an improved modular Bayesian approach based on Gaussian Process (GP) for TRACE physical model parameters using the BWR Full-size Fine-Mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT) benchmark steady-state void fraction data. The model discrepancy is described with a GP emulator. Numerical tests have demonstrated that such treatment of model discrepancy can avoid over-fitting. Furthermore, we constructed a fast-running and accurate GP emulator to replace TRACE full model during Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The computational cost was demonstrated to be reduced by several orders of magnitude. A sequential approach was also developed for efficient test source allocation (TSA) for inverse UQ and validation. This sequential TSA methodology first selects experimental tests for validation that has a full coverage of the test domain to avoid extrapolation of model discrepancy term when evaluated at input setting of tests for inverse UQ. Then it selects tests that tend to reside in the unfilled zones of the test domain for inverse UQ, so that one can extract the most information for posterior probability distributions of calibration parameters using only a relatively small number of tests. This research addresses the "lack of input uncertainty information" issue for TRACE physical input parameters, which was usually ignored or described using expert opinion or user self-assessment in previous work. The resulting posterior probability distributions of TRACE parameters can be used in future uncertainty, sensitivity and validation studies of TRACE code for nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification using the Modular Bayesian Approach based on Gaussian Process, Part 1: Theory

In nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis, the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology requires that computer model output uncertainties must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within acceptance criteria. "Expert opinion" and "user self-evaluation" have been widely used to specify computer model input uncertainties in previous uncertainty, sensitivity and validation studies. Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process to inversely quantify input uncertainties based on experimental data in order to more precisely quantify such ad-hoc specifications of the input uncertainty information. In this paper, we used Bayesian analysis to establish the inverse UQ formulation, with systematic and rigorously derived metamodels constructed by Gaussian Process (GP). Due to incomplete or inaccurate underlying physics, as well as numerical approximation errors, computer models always have discrepancy/bias in representing the realities, which can cause over-fitting if neglected in the inverse UQ process. The model discrepancy term is accounted for in our formulation through the "model updating equation". We provided a detailed introduction and comparison of the full and modular Bayesian approaches for inverse UQ, as well as pointed out their limitations when extrapolated to the validation/prediction domain. Finally, we proposed an improved modular Bayesian approach that can avoid extrapolating the model discrepancy that is learnt from the inverse UQ domain to the validation/prediction domain.

stat.CO↗