arXiv subjects

Krishnakumar Balasubramanian

Publications and source records attributed to Krishnakumar Balasubramanian.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dependence-Aware Label Aggregation for LLM-as-a-Judge via Ising Models

Large-scale AI evaluation increasingly relies on aggregating binary judgments from $K$ annotators, including LLMs used as judges. Most classical methods, e.g., Dawid-Skene or (weighted) majority voting, assume annotators are conditionally independent given the true label $Y\in\{0,1\}$, an assumption often violated by LLM judges due to shared data, architectures, prompts, and failure modes. Ignoring such dependencies can yield miscalibrated posteriors and even confidently incorrect predictions. We study label aggregation through a hierarchy of dependence-aware models based on Ising graphical models and latent factors. For class-dependent Ising models, the Bayes log-odds is generally quadratic in votes; for class-independent couplings, it reduces to a linear weighted vote with correlation-adjusted parameters. We present finite-$K$ examples showing that methods based on conditional independence can flip the Bayes label despite matching per-annotator marginals. We prove separation results demonstrating that these methods remain strictly suboptimal as the number of judges grows, incurring nonvanishing excess risk under latent factors. Finally, we evaluate the proposed method on three real-world datasets, demonstrating improved performance over the classical baselines.

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arXiv2025

On the Structure of Stationary Solutions to McKean-Vlasov Equations with Applications to Noisy Transformers

We study stationary solutions of McKean-Vlasov equations on the circle. Our main contributions stem from observing an exact equivalence between solutions of the stationary McKean-Vlasov equation and an infinite-dimensional quadratic system of equations over Fourier coefficients, which allows explicit characterization of the stationary states in a sequence space rather than a function space. This framework provides a transparent description of local bifurcations, characterizing their periodicity, and resonance structures, while accommodating singular potentials. We derive analytic expressions that characterize the emergence, form and shape (supercritical, critical, subcritical or transcritical) of bifurcations involving possibly multiple Fourier modes and connect them with discontinuous phase transitions. We also characterize, under suitable assumptions, the detailed structure of the stationary bifurcating solutions that are accurate upto an arbitrary number of Fourier modes. At the global level, we establish regularity and concavity properties of the free energy landscape, proving existence, compactness, and coexistence of globally minimizing stationary measures, further identifying discontinuous phase transitions with points of non-differentiability of the minimum free energy map. As an application, we specialize the theory to the Noisy Mean-Field Transformer model, where we show how changing the inverse temperature parameter $β$ affects the geometry of the infinitely many bifurcations from the uniform measure. We also explain how increasing $β$ can lead to a rich class of approximate multi-mode stationary solutions which can be seen as `metastable states'. Further, a sharp transition from continuous to discontinuous (first-order) phase behavior is observed as $β$ increases.

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arXiv2025

Statistical Inference for Linear Functionals of Online SGD in High-dimensional Linear Regression

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has emerged as the quintessential method in a data scientist's toolbox. Using SGD for high-stakes applications requires, however, careful quantification of the associated uncertainty. Towards that end, in this work, we establish a high-dimensional Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for linear functionals of online SGD iterates for overparametrized least-squares regression with non-isotropic Gaussian inputs. We first show that a bias-corrected CLT holds when the number of iterations of the online SGD, $t$, grows sub-linearly in the dimensionality, $d$. In order to use the developed result in practice, we further develop an online approach for estimating the variance term appearing in the CLT, and establish high-probability bounds for the developed online estimator. Together with the CLT result, this provides a fully online and data-driven way to numerically construct confidence intervals. This enables practical high-dimensional algorithmic inference with SGD and to the best of our knowledge, is the first such result.

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arXiv2025

Statistical Inference for Linear Functionals of Online Least-squares SGD when $t \gtrsim d^{1+δ}$

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) has become a cornerstone method in modern data science. However, deploying SGD in high-stakes applications necessitates rigorous quantification of its inherent uncertainty. In this work, we establish \emph{non-asymptotic Berry--Esseen bounds} for linear functionals of online least-squares SGD, thereby providing a Gaussian Central Limit Theorem (CLT) in a \emph{growing-dimensional regime}. Existing approaches to high-dimensional inference for projection parameters, such as~\cite{chang2023inference}, rely on inverting empirical covariance matrices and require at least $t \gtrsim d^{3/2}$ iterations to achieve finite-sample Berry--Esseen guarantees, rendering them computationally expensive and restrictive in the allowable dimensional scaling. In contrast, we show that a CLT holds for SGD iterates when the number of iterations grows as $t \gtrsim d^{1+δ}$ for any $δ> 0$, significantly extending the dimensional regime permitted by prior works while improving computational efficiency. The proposed online SGD-based procedure operates in $\mathcal{O}(td)$ time and requires only $\mathcal{O}(d)$ memory, in contrast to the $\mathcal{O}(td^2 + d^3)$ runtime of covariance-inversion methods. To render the theory practically applicable, we further develop an \emph{online variance estimator} for the asymptotic variance appearing in the CLT and establish \emph{high-probability deviation bounds} for this estimator. Collectively, these results yield the first fully online and data-driven framework for constructing confidence intervals for SGD iterates in the near-optimal scaling regime $t \gtrsim d^{1+δ}$.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Mirror Flow Matching with Heavy-Tailed Priors for Generative Modeling on Convex Domains

We study generative modeling on convex domains using flow matching and mirror maps, and identify two fundamental challenges. First, standard log-barrier mirror maps induce heavy-tailed dual distributions, leading to ill-posed dynamics. Second, coupling with Gaussian priors performs poorly when matching heavy-tailed targets. To address these issues, we propose Mirror Flow Matching based on a \emph{regularized mirror map} that controls dual tail behavior and guarantees finite moments, together with coupling to a Student-$t$ prior that aligns with heavy-tailed targets and stabilizes training. We provide theoretical guarantees, including spatial Lipschitzness and temporal regularity of the velocity field, Wasserstein convergence rates for flow matching with Student-$t$ priors and primal-space guarantees for constrained generation, under $\varepsilon$-accurate learned velocity fields. Empirically, our method outperforms baselines in synthetic convex-domain simulations and achieves competitive sample quality on real-world constrained generative tasks.

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arXiv2025

Statistical-Computational Trade-offs for Recursive Adaptive Partitioning Estimators

Models based on recursive adaptive partitioning such as decision trees and their ensembles are popular for high-dimensional regression as they can potentially avoid the curse of dimensionality. Because empirical risk minimization (ERM) is computationally infeasible, these models are typically trained using greedy algorithms. Although effective in many cases, these algorithms have been empirically observed to get stuck at local optima. We explore this phenomenon in the context of learning sparse regression functions over $d$ binary features, showing that when the true regression function $f^*$ does not satisfy Abbe et al. (2022)'s Merged Staircase Property (MSP), greedy training requires $\exp(Ω(d))$ to achieve low estimation error. Conversely, when $f^*$ does satisfy MSP, greedy training can attain small estimation error with only $O(\log d)$ samples. This dichotomy mirrors that of two-layer neural networks trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in the mean-field regime, thereby establishing a head-to-head comparison between SGD-trained neural networks and greedy recursive partitioning estimators. Furthermore, ERM-trained recursive partitioning estimators achieve low estimation error with $O(\log d)$ samples irrespective of whether $f^*$ satisfies MSP, thereby demonstrating a statistical-computational trade-off for greedy training. Our proofs are based on a novel interpretation of greedy recursive partitioning using stochastic process theory and a coupling technique that may be of independent interest.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Nonsmooth Nonparametric Regression via Fractional Laplacian Eigenmaps

We develop nonparametric regression methods for the case when the true regression function is not necessarily smooth. More specifically, our approach is using the fractional Laplacian and is designed to handle the case when the true regression function lies in an $L_2$-fractional Sobolev space with order $s\in (0,1)$. This function class is a Hilbert space lying between the space of square-integrable functions and the first-order Sobolev space consisting of differentiable functions. It contains fractional power functions, piecewise constant or polynomial functions and bump function as canonical examples. For the proposed approach, we prove upper bounds on the in-sample mean-squared estimation error of order $n^{-\frac{2s}{2s+d}}$, where $d$ is the dimension, $s$ is the aforementioned order parameter and $n$ is the number of observations. We also provide preliminary empirical results validating the practical performance of the developed estimators.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Transformers Handle Endogeneity in In-Context Linear Regression

We explore the capability of transformers to address endogeneity in in-context linear regression. Our main finding is that transformers inherently possess a mechanism to handle endogeneity effectively using instrumental variables (IV). First, we demonstrate that the transformer architecture can emulate a gradient-based bi-level optimization procedure that converges to the widely used two-stage least squares $(\textsf{2SLS})$ solution at an exponential rate. Next, we propose an in-context pretraining scheme and provide theoretical guarantees showing that the global minimizer of the pre-training loss achieves a small excess loss. Our extensive experiments validate these theoretical findings, showing that the trained transformer provides more robust and reliable in-context predictions and coefficient estimates than the $\textsf{2SLS}$ method, in the presence of endogeneity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Multivariate Gaussian Approximation for Random Forest via Region-based Stabilization

We derive Gaussian approximation bounds for $k$-Potential Nearest Neighbor ($k$-PNN) based random forest predictions based on a set of training points given by a Poisson process under fairly mild regularity assumptions on the data generating process. Our approach is based on the key observation that $k$-PNN based random forest predictions satisfy a certain geometric property called region-based stabilization. We also compare the rates with those of $k$-nearest neighbor-based random forests, highlighting a form of universality in our result. In the process of developing our results, we also establish a probabilistic result on multivariate Gaussian approximation bounds for general functionals of Poisson process that are region-based stabilizing. This general result makes use of the Malliavin-Stein method, and is potentially applicable to various related statistical problems.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Riemannian Proximal Sampler for High-accuracy Sampling on Manifolds

We introduce the Riemannian Proximal Sampler, a method for sampling from densities defined on Riemannian manifolds. The performance of this sampler critically depends on two key oracles: the Manifold Brownian Increments (MBI) oracle and the Riemannian Heat-kernel (RHK) oracle. We establish high-accuracy sampling guarantees for the Riemannian Proximal Sampler, showing that generating samples with $\varepsilon$-accuracy requires $O(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ iterations in Kullback-Leibler divergence assuming access to exact oracles and $O(\log^2(1/\varepsilon))$ iterations in the total variation metric assuming access to sufficiently accurate inexact oracles. Furthermore, we present practical implementations of these oracles by leveraging heat-kernel truncation and Varadhan's asymptotics. In the latter case, we interpret the Riemannian Proximal Sampler as a discretization of the entropy-regularized Riemannian Proximal Point Method on the associated Wasserstein space. We provide preliminary numerical results that illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

In-context Learning for Mixture of Linear Regressions: Existence, Generalization and Training Dynamics

We investigate the in-context learning capabilities of transformers for the $d$-dimensional mixture of linear regression model, providing theoretical insights into their existence, generalization bounds, and training dynamics. Specifically, we prove that there exists a transformer capable of achieving a prediction error of order $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{d/n})$ with high probability, where $n$ represents the training prompt size in the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime. Moreover, we derive in-context excess risk bounds of order $\mathcal{O}(L/\sqrt{B})$ for the case of two mixtures, where $B$ denotes the number of training prompts, and $L$ represents the number of attention layers. The dependence of $L$ on the SNR is explicitly characterized, differing between low and high SNR settings. We further analyze the training dynamics of transformers with single linear self-attention layers, demonstrating that, with appropriately initialized parameters, gradient flow optimization over the population mean square loss converges to a global optimum. Extensive simulations suggest that transformers perform well on this task, potentially outperforming other baselines, such as the Expectation-Maximization algorithm.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Minimax Optimal Goodness-of-Fit Testing with Kernel Stein Discrepancy

We explore the minimax optimality of goodness-of-fit tests on general domains using the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD). The KSD framework offers a flexible approach for goodness-of-fit testing, avoiding strong distributional assumptions, accommodating diverse data structures beyond Euclidean spaces, and relying only on partial knowledge of the reference distribution, while maintaining computational efficiency. Although KSD is a powerful framework for goodness-of-fit testing, only the consistency of the corresponding tests has been established so far, and their statistical optimality remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we develop a general framework and an operator-theoretic representation of the KSD, encompassing many existing KSD tests in the literature, which vary depending on the domain. Building on this representation, we propose a modified discrepancy by applying the concept of spectral regularization to the KSD framework. We establish the minimax optimality of the proposed regularized test for a wide range of the smoothness parameter $θ$ under a specific alternative space, defined over general domains, using the $χ^2$-divergence as the separation metric. In contrast, we demonstrate that the unregularized KSD test fails to achieve the minimax separation rate for the considered alternative space. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive test capable of achieving minimax optimality up to a logarithmic factor by adapting to unknown parameters. Through numerical experiments, we illustrate the superior performance of our proposed tests across various domains compared to their unregularized counterparts.

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arXiv2024

Gaussian and Bootstrap Approximation for Matching-based Average Treatment Effect Estimators

We establish Gaussian approximation bounds for covariate and rank-matching-based Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators. By analyzing these estimators through the lens of stabilization theory, we employ the Malliavin-Stein method to derive our results. Our bounds precisely quantify the impact of key problem parameters, including the number of matches and treatment balance, on the accuracy of the Gaussian approximation. Additionally, we develop multiplier bootstrap procedures to estimate the limiting distribution in a fully data-driven manner, and we leverage the derived Gaussian approximation results to further obtain bootstrap approximation bounds. Our work not only introduces a novel theoretical framework for commonly used ATE estimators, but also provides data-driven methods for constructing non-asymptotically valid confidence intervals.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Stochastic Optimization Algorithms for Instrumental Variable Regression with Streaming Data

We develop and analyze algorithms for instrumental variable regression by viewing the problem as a conditional stochastic optimization problem. In the context of least-squares instrumental variable regression, our algorithms neither require matrix inversions nor mini-batches and provides a fully online approach for performing instrumental variable regression with streaming data. When the true model is linear, we derive rates of convergence in expectation, that are of order $\mathcal{O}(\log T/T)$ and $\mathcal{O}(1/T^{1-ι})$ for any $ι>0$, respectively under the availability of two-sample and one-sample oracles, respectively, where $T$ is the number of iterations. Importantly, under the availability of the two-sample oracle, our procedure avoids explicitly modeling and estimating the relationship between confounder and the instrumental variables, demonstrating the benefit of the proposed approach over recent works based on reformulating the problem as minimax optimization problems. Numerical experiments are provided to corroborate the theoretical results.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

A Separation in Heavy-Tailed Sampling: Gaussian vs. Stable Oracles for Proximal Samplers

We study the complexity of heavy-tailed sampling and present a separation result in terms of obtaining high-accuracy versus low-accuracy guarantees i.e., samplers that require only $O(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ versus $Ω(\text{poly}(1/\varepsilon))$ iterations to output a sample which is $\varepsilon$-close to the target in $χ^2$-divergence. Our results are presented for proximal samplers that are based on Gaussian versus stable oracles. We show that proximal samplers based on the Gaussian oracle have a fundamental barrier in that they necessarily achieve only low-accuracy guarantees when sampling from a class of heavy-tailed targets. In contrast, proximal samplers based on the stable oracle exhibit high-accuracy guarantees, thereby overcoming the aforementioned limitation. We also prove lower bounds for samplers under the stable oracle and show that our upper bounds cannot be fundamentally improved.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Regularized Stein Variational Gradient Flow

The Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) algorithm is a deterministic particle method for sampling. However, a mean-field analysis reveals that the gradient flow corresponding to the SVGD algorithm (i.e., the Stein Variational Gradient Flow) only provides a constant-order approximation to the Wasserstein Gradient Flow corresponding to the KL-divergence minimization. In this work, we propose the Regularized Stein Variational Gradient Flow, which interpolates between the Stein Variational Gradient Flow and the Wasserstein Gradient Flow. We establish various theoretical properties of the Regularized Stein Variational Gradient Flow (and its time-discretization) including convergence to equilibrium, existence and uniqueness of weak solutions, and stability of the solutions. We provide preliminary numerical evidence of the improved performance offered by the regularization.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Gaussian random field approximation via Stein's method with applications to wide random neural networks

We derive upper bounds on the Wasserstein distance ($W_1$), with respect to $\sup$-norm, between any continuous $\mathbb{R}^d$ valued random field indexed by the $n$-sphere and the Gaussian, based on Stein's method. We develop a novel Gaussian smoothing technique that allows us to transfer a bound in a smoother metric to the $W_1$ distance. The smoothing is based on covariance functions constructed using powers of Laplacian operators, designed so that the associated Gaussian process has a tractable Cameron-Martin or Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. This feature enables us to move beyond one dimensional interval-based index sets that were previously considered in the literature. Specializing our general result, we obtain the first bounds on the Gaussian random field approximation of wide random neural networks of any depth and Lipschitz activation functions at the random field level. Our bounds are explicitly expressed in terms of the widths of the network and moments of the random weights. We also obtain tighter bounds when the activation function has three bounded derivatives.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

High-dimensional scaling limits and fluctuations of online least-squares SGD with smooth covariance

We derive high-dimensional scaling limits and fluctuations for the online least-squares Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm by taking the properties of the data generating model explicitly into consideration. Our approach treats the SGD iterates as an interacting particle system, where the expected interaction is characterized by the covariance structure of the input. Assuming smoothness conditions on moments of order up to eight orders, and without explicitly assuming Gaussianity, we establish the high-dimensional scaling limits and fluctuations in the form of infinite-dimensional Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) or Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs). Our results reveal a precise three-step phase transition of the iterates; it goes from being ballistic, to diffusive, and finally to purely random behavior, as the noise variance goes from low, to moderate and finally to very-high noise setting. In the low-noise setting, we further characterize the precise fluctuations of the (scaled) iterates as infinite-dimensional SDEs. We also show the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the derived limiting ODEs and SDEs. Our results have several applications, including characterization of the limiting mean-square estimation or prediction errors and their fluctuations, which can be obtained by analytically or numerically solving the limiting equations.

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