Kristian van Kuijk | Searcharxiv

arXiv2023

Multi-Modal Embeddings for Isolating Cross-Platform Coordinated Information Campaigns on Social Media

Coordinated multi-platform information operations are implemented in a variety of contexts on social media, including state-run disinformation campaigns, marketing strategies, and social activism. Characterized by the promotion of messages via multi-platform coordination, in which multiple user accounts, within a short time, post content advancing a shared informational agenda on multiple platforms, they contribute to an already confusing and manipulated information ecosystem. To make things worse, reliable datasets that contain ground truth information about such operations are virtually nonexistent. This paper presents a multi-modal approach that identifies the social media messages potentially engaged in a coordinated information campaign across multiple platforms. Our approach incorporates textual content, temporal information and the underlying network of user and messages posted to identify groups of messages with unusual coordination patterns across multiple social media platforms. We apply our approach to content posted on four platforms related to the Syrian Civil Defence organization known as the White Helmets: Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, and YouTube. Results show that our approach identifies social media posts that link to news YouTube channels with similar factuality score, which is often an indication of coordinated operations.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Conformal Regression in Calorie Prediction for Team Jumbo-Visma

UCI WorldTour races, the premier men's elite road cycling tour, are grueling events that put physical fitness and endurance of riders to the test. The coaches of Team Jumbo-Visma have long been responsible for predicting the energy needs of each rider of the Dutch team for every race on the calendar. Those must be estimated to ensure riders have the energy and resources necessary to maintain a high level of performance throughout a race. This task, however, is both time-consuming and challenging, as it requires precise estimates of race speed and power output. Traditionally, the approach to predicting energy needs has relied on judgement and experience of coaches, but this method has its limitations and often leads to inaccurate predictions. In this paper, we propose a new, more effective approach to predicting energy needs for cycling races. By predicting the speed and power with regression models, we provide the coaches with calorie needs estimates for each individual rider per stage instantly. In addition, we compare methods to quantify uncertainty using conformal prediction. The empirical analysis of the jackknife+, jackknife-minmax, jackknife-minmax-after-bootstrap, CV+, CV-minmax, conformalized quantile regression, and inductive conformal prediction methods in conformal prediction reveals that all methods achieve valid prediction intervals. All but minmax-based methods also produce sufficiently narrow prediction intervals for decision-making. Furthermore, methods computing prediction intervals of fixed size produce tighter intervals for low significance values. Among the methods computing intervals of varying length across the input space, inductive conformal prediction computes narrower prediction intervals at larger significance level.

cs.LG↗