arXiv subjects

Kristin S. Sotzen

Publications and source records attributed to Kristin S. Sotzen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Evidence for LP 890-9d via Transit Timing Variations

LP 890-9, also known as SPECULOOS-2 and TOI-4306, is a nearby late-M dwarf hosting two confirmed transiting rocky exoplanets. We analyze 20 JWST/NIRSpec PRISM transits of LP 890-9b and LP 890-9c obtained as part of GO program 7073 and detect statistically significant transit timing variations (TTVs), with peak-to-peak amplitudes of ~17 s and ~35 s, respectively. Using analytic linear TTV theory, we find that the known two-planet configuration cannot reproduce the measured TTV amplitudes or super-period, whereas three-planet models provide substantially better fits. The best-fit configuration places the candidate third planet, LP 890-9d, between planets b and c, with an orbital period of ~4.4 days; however, the current data do not uniquely determine its orbital architecture, and periods spanning 4.0-6.9 days remain plausible. TESS is insensitive to transits of LP 890-9d and we find no evidence for the candidate in JWST observations, although the phase coverage (ranging from ~50% to ~80%) depends strongly on the candidate orbital period. Additional high-precision transit observations of LP 890-9b and LP 890-9c are needed to refine their TTV solutions and further constrain the orbital properties of the third planet.

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arXiv2026

A Clearer View of HAT-P-1 b: JWST NIRSpec G395H Reveals Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Possibly Hydrogen Sulfide

As part of JWST's Exoplanet Grand Tour Survey, we use panchromatic transmission spectroscopy to connect HAT-P-1 b's previously studied optical and near-infrared atmosphere to the longer-wavelength molecular bands accessible with JWST. We present JWST NIRSpec G395H transmission spectroscopy of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-1 b over 2.7--5.3~$μ$m, and combine the new spectrum with archival HST STIS and WFC3 observations for a 0.3--5.3~$μ$m atmospheric analysis. We independently reduce the JWST data with the Eureka!, FIREFLy, and Tswift pipelines, finding mutually consistent transmission spectra across the G395H bandpass. Atmospheric retrievals yield strong evidence for H$_2$O and CO$_2$ with Bayes factors of $\log_{10}B_{\mathrm{H_2O}}=8.9$ and $\log_{10}B_{\mathrm{CO_2}}=52.3$, while providing tentative evidence for H$_2$S ($\log_{10}B_{\mathrm{H_2S}}=1.4$). The joint H$_2$O and CO$_2$ constraints favor an atmosphere near chemical equilibrium, with $\log_{10} \text{M/H}=0.99^{+0.19}_{-0.14}$, corresponding to $\sim10\times$ Solar or $\sim9\times$ relative to the near-solar metallicity host star, and a 3$σ$ upper limit of C/O $<0.52$. Because H$_2$O and CO$_2$ provide a metallicity comparatively insensitive to vertical mixing in this temperature regime, their combined detection suggests the composition is dominated by bulk enrichment rather than strong disequilibrium transport. We find no significant evidence for clouds; instead, the persistence of molecular structure across the spectrum argues against strong cloud muting. The tentative H$_2$S signal, if confirmed, would further suggest limited photochemical processing at the pressures probed. Together, the molecular inventory, enriched metallicity, and low C/O ratio point to an oxygen-rich atmosphere and establish HAT-P-1 b as a benchmark for comparative studies of hot-Jupiter atmospheric composition.

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arXiv2026

Asymmetric Aerosol Distribution on the Terminators of the Warm Saturn WASP-69 b Revealed by JWST NIRISS/SOSS

How aerosols form, are transported, and cycle between condensation and evaporation across exoplanet temperature regimes remains poorly understood. Recent models and observations suggest that warm giant planets near $800$--$1000$ K may span a transition between homogeneous and longitudinally heterogeneous aerosol distributions. We present a robust detection of aerosol asymmetry in a giant planet with $T_{\rm eq}\lesssim1000$ K, using the $0.86$--$2.82~μ$m JWST NIRISS/SOSS transmission spectrum of WASP-69 b. The evening limb shows prominent 1.4 $μ$m H$_2$O absorption ($Δ\mathrm{BIC}_{\rm H_2O}=+22.7$), whereas H$_2$O is not detected on the morning limb ($Δ\mathrm{BIC}_{\rm H_2O}=-8.7$). Atmospheric retrievals reveal significant aerosol opacity on both limbs, with high-altitude, optically thick clouds muting molecular features on the morning limb and lower cloud opacity allowing H$_2$O to emerge on the evening limb. The evening terminator is hotter by $304^{+62}_{-91}$ K, consistent with morning-limb condensates partially evaporating during transport toward the evening limb. This mechanism is independently verified with 3D general circulation models. Stellar contamination or aerosols dominated by photochemical haze do not readily explain the asymmetry. From a limb-resolved analysis, we infer a stellar-to-superstellar atmospheric metallicity, with $\rm[M/H]=0.11^{+0.40}_{-0.46}$ from the equilibrium retrieval and [O/H]$=1.38^{+0.44}_{-0.79}$ from the free retrieval. We also detect an escaping metastable-helium tail extending to $3.08^{+0.50}_{-0.45}\,R_p$. WASP-69 b anchors the cooler edge of the emerging population of planets with asymmetric aerosol distributions and suggests that substantial aerosol opacity may persist on both limbs across this transition.

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arXiv2026

No Helium Detected in LHS 1140 b from Four JWST NIRISS/SOSS Transits

In the effort to determine which low-mass exoplanets have atmospheres, LHS 1140 b remains one of the most favorable targets. Its large size (5.6 $\rm M_{\oplus}$ and 1.7 $\rm R_{\oplus}$) and relatively long orbital period (24.7 days) imply an atmosphere may be likely, and notably, recent interior models favor either a hydrogen-dominated "mini-Neptune" or a "water world" over a true terrestrial planet. Another possibility is that it has a helium-rich atmosphere. This hypothesis is supported by recent ground-based observations that detected the metastable helium triplet during transit. These observations indicated there may be current helium escape from the planet's upper atmosphere, yet the signal was not detected during a subsequent observation, suggesting time-variable escape. Here we present four observations of LHS 1140 b with JWST NIRISS/SOSS, which covers the metastable helium triplet, obtained between 2023 and 2026. These observations span the epoch of the ground-based measurements, and although none were contemporaneous with the ground-based transits, all four are sensitive to helium absorption at the previously reported level. However, we detect no helium absorption in any visit. We reject the best-fit ground-based model at $>3σ$ in each visit, and find no clear trend in mass-loss with time. Our results suggest the reported ground-based detection may be spurious, although variability cannot be excluded if detectable helium absorption occurs in $\lesssim50\%$ of transits. The nature of LHS 1140 b thus remains a mystery until future transmission and emission analyses are complete.

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arXiv2026

Piercing through the Haze: Characterizing Titan-like terrestrial exoplanets with JWST

As we enter a new era of using JWST to characterize exoplanet atmospheres, a top priority is defining observational needs and parameters in the search for life on an exoplanet. Although some studies have begun to consider Titan-like exoplanet atmospheres, more work is needed to prepare for the potential discovery and characterization of Titan analogues with JWST and future missions. We explore the effectiveness of exoplanet atmospheric retrieval methodologies on the Cassini/VIMS-IR spectrum of Titan assuming agnostic haze properties and tholin hazes, as well as a self-consistent photochemical model. We compare our retrieved chemical abundances and haze profiles against fiducial values and Cassini/ISS-NAC UV observations and the forward modeled truths. We generalize these findings to a Titan-like exoplanet in the TRAPPIST-1 system and find that JWST-like observations have limited potential to identify features beyond methane in a Titan-like atmosphere, but may be able to identify the presence of the haze to a few hundred kilometers. The diagnostic features which would differentiate between different haze model (scattering) properties are shortward of 1\,\micron{} and further demonstrate the important role of nUV -- optical observatories in constraining the properties of exoplanet atmospheres. We also find that agnostic priors for the bulk atmosphere can lead to a degeneracy in which a spectrally active gas ($\rm CH_4$) is erroneously favored as the dominant atmospheric constituent over a spectrally inactive molecule (N_2).

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arXiv2026

High Tide or Riptide on the Cosmic Shoreline? A Water-Rich Atmosphere or Stellar Contamination for the Warm Super-Earth GJ~486b from JWST Observations

Planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are prime targets in the search for rocky exoplanet atmospheres. The small size of M dwarfs renders their planets exceptional targets for transmission spectroscopy, facilitating atmospheric characterization. However, it remains unknown whether their host stars' highly variable extreme-UV radiation environments allow atmospheres to persist. With JWST, we have begun to determine whether or not the most favorable rocky worlds orbiting M dwarfs have detectable atmospheres. Here, we present a 2.8-5.2 micron JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the warm (700 K, 40.3x Earth's insolation) super-Earth GJ 486b (1.3 R$_{\oplus}$ and 3.0 M$_{\oplus}$). The measured spectrum from our two transits of GJ 486b deviates from a flat line at 2.2 - 3.3 $σ$, based on three independent reductions. Through a combination of forward and retrieval models, we determine that GJ 486b either has a water-rich atmosphere (with the most stringent constraint on the retrieved water abundance of H2O > 10% to 2$σ$) or the transmission spectrum is contaminated by water present in cool unocculted starspots. We also find that the measured stellar spectrum is best fit by a stellar model with cool starspots and hot faculae. While both retrieval scenarios provide equal quality fits ($χ^2_ν$ = 1.0) to our NIRSpec/G395H observations, shorter wavelength observations can break this degeneracy and reveal if GJ 486b sustains a water-rich atmosphere.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: The Nightside Emission and Chemistry of WASP-17b

Theoretical studies have suggested using planetary infrared excess (PIE) to detect and characterize the thermal emission of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets, however the PIE technique requires empirical validation. Here we apply the PIE technique to a combination of JWST NIRSpec G395H transit and eclipse measurements of WASP-17b, a hot Jupiter orbiting an F-type star, obtained consecutively (0.5 phase or 1.8 days apart) as part of the JWST-TST program to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS). Using the in-eclipse measured stellar spectrum to circumvent the need for ultra-precise stellar models, we extract the first JWST nightside emission spectrum of WASP-17b using only transit and eclipse data thereby performing a controlled test of the PIE technique. From the WASP-17b nightside spectrum, we measure a nightside equilibrium temperature of $1005 \pm 256$ K and find tentative evidence for nightside SO2 absorption ($\ln B = 1.45$, $2.3σ$). In context with the dayside, the temperature of the nightside is consistent with (1) previous eclipse mapping findings that suggest relatively inefficient day-night heat transport, and (2) a non-zero bond albedo of $0.42^{+0.06}_{-0.10}$. SO2 on the nightside, if confirmed, would represent the first direct evidence for transport-induced chemistry, matching previous model predictions, and opening a new door into the 3D nature of giant exoplanets. Our results suggest that PIE is feasible with JWST/NIRSpec for two epochs separated in time by significantly less than the rotation period of the host star.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: Secondary Atmosphere Constraints for the Habitable Zone Planet TRAPPIST-1 e

The TRAPPIST-1 system offers one of the best opportunities to characterize temperate terrestrial planets beyond our own solar system. Within the TRAPPIST-1 system, planet e stands out as highly likely to sustain surface liquid water if it possesses an atmosphere. Recently, we reported the first JWST/NIRSpec PRISM transmission spectra of TRAPPIST-1 e, revealing significant stellar contamination, which varied between the four visits. Here, we assess the range of planetary atmospheres consistent with our transmission spectrum. We explore a wide range of atmospheric scenarios via a hierarchy of forward modeling and retrievals. We do not obtain strong evidence for or against an atmosphere. Our results weakly disfavor CO$_2$-rich atmospheres for pressures corresponding to the surface of Venus and Mars and the cloud tops of Venus at 2$σ$. We exclude H$_2$-rich atmospheres containing CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ in agreement with past work, but find that higher mean molecular weight, N$_2$-rich atmospheres with trace CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ are permitted by the data. Both a bare rock and N$_2$-rich atmospheric scenario provide adequate fits to the data, but do not fully explain all features, which may be due to either uncorrected stellar contamination or atmospheric signals. Ongoing JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 e, exploiting consecutive transits with TRAPPIST-1 b, will offer stronger constraints via a more effective stellar contamination correction. The present work is part of the JWST Telescope Scientist Team (JWST-TST) Guaranteed Time Observations, which is performing a Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS).

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arXiv2025

K2-18b Does Not Meet The Standards of Evidence For Life

K2-18b, a temperate sub-Neptune, has garnered significant attention due to claims of possible biosignatures in its atmosphere. Low-confidence detections of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and/or dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) have sparked considerable debate, primarily around arguments that their absorption features are not uniquely identifiable. Here, we consider all five questions from the astrobiology standards of evidence framework, starting with: Have we detected an authentic signal? To answer this, we analyzed publicly-available JWST observations of K2-18b using independent data reduction and spectral retrieval methodologies. Our comprehensive set of reductions demonstrates that the MIRI transit spectrum is highly susceptible to unresolved instrumental systematics. Applying different wavelength binning schemes yields a potpourri of planet spectra that then lead to a wide assortment of atmospheric interpretations. Consequently, we offer recommendations to help minimize this previously-underappreciated instrument systematic in future MIRI reductions of any exoplanet. While the MIRI binning scheme adopted by Madhusudhan et al. (2025) favors the presence of DMS/DMDS in K2-18b, we find that 87.5% of retrievals using our preferred MIRI binning scheme do not. When considering the full, 0.7 - 12 micron transit spectrum, we confirm the detection of CH4 and favor CO2, and find the presence of DMS and C2H4 to be interchangeable. Moreover, we find that the tentative presence of large features in the MIRI transit spectrum is in tension with the more robust, yet smaller, features observed in the near IR. We conclude that red noise -- rather than an astrophysical signal -- plagues the mid-IR data and there is, as yet, no statistically significant evidence for biosignatures in the atmosphere of K2-18b.

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arXiv2025

Additional JWST/NIRSpec Transits of the Rocky M Dwarf Exoplanet GJ 1132 b Reveal a Featureless Spectrum

As an archetypal M-dwarf rocky exoplanet, GJ 1132 b has a varied history of atmospheric measurements. At 1.13 $\rm R_{\oplus}$, 1.66 $\rm M_{\oplus}$, and 580 K, it orbits a bright, slowly rotating M dwarf in a 1.6-day period, making it a prime target for characterization. In this study, we combine two JWST NIRSpec/G395H transits previously reported by May and MacDonald et al. 2023 with two new NIRSpec/G395M transits to constrain the presence of an atmosphere. This marks the first time the G395H and G395M modes have been combined for a single target, and we report no difference in the quality of data between the two modes. For rocky M-dwarf studies, G395H may still be preferred if stacking transits to utilize the high-resolution flux-calibrated stellar spectra and assess evolving stellar heterogeneity. GJ 1132 b's co-added transmission spectrum is best-fit with a flat line. A thin steam atmosphere is also consistent with the data, but this interpretation is driven almost entirely by the first transit, which suggests an increase in cool spot coverage-fraction derived from the flux-calibrated stellar spectra. This demonstrates the importance of always considering stellar heterogeneity evolution in multi-visit transits, and also the importance of a "leave-one-transit-out" approach in modeling efforts of co-added transits. We combine these results with MIRI/LRS emission data (Xue et al. 2024) to show that together, transmission and emission are consistent with only the thinnest of atmospheres. Given GJ 1132 b's age and distance from the star, a thin atmosphere is not likely stable. Therefore, the simplest explanation is that GJ 1132 b is indeed a bare rock.

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arXiv2024

Updated forecast for TRAPPIST-1 times of transit for all seven exoplanets incorporating JWST data

The TRAPPIST-1 system has been extensively observed with JWST in the near-infrared with the goal of measuring atmospheric transit transmission spectra of these temperate, Earth-sized exoplanets. A byproduct of these observations has been much more precise times of transit compared with prior available data from Spitzer, HST, or ground-based telescopes. In this note we use 23 new timing measurements of all seven planets in the near-infrared from five JWST observing programs to better forecast and constrain the future times of transit in this system. In particular, we note that the transit times of TRAPPIST-1h have drifted significantly from a prior published analysis by up to tens of minutes. Our newer forecast has a higher precision, with median statistical uncertainties ranging from 7-105 seconds during JWST Cycles 4 and 5. Our expectation is that this forecast will help to improve planning of future observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets, whereas we postpone a full dynamical analysis to future work.

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arXiv2024

JWST-TST DREAMS: Quartz Clouds in the Atmosphere of WASP-17b

Clouds are prevalent in many of the exoplanet atmospheres that have been observed to date. For transiting exoplanets, we know if clouds are present because they mute spectral features and cause wavelength-dependent scattering. While the exact composition of these clouds is largely unknown, this information is vital to understanding the chemistry and energy budget of planetary atmospheres. In this work, we observe one transit of the hot Jupiter WASP-17b with JWST's MIRI LRS and generate a transmission spectrum from 5-12 $\rmμ$m. These wavelengths allow us to probe absorption due to the vibrational modes of various predicted cloud species. Our transmission spectrum shows additional opacity centered at 8.6 $\rmμ$m, and detailed atmospheric modeling and retrievals identify this feature as SiO$_2$(s) (quartz) clouds. The SiO$_2$(s) clouds model is preferred at 3.5-4.2$σ$ versus a cloud-free model and at 2.6$σ$ versus a generic aerosol prescription. We find the SiO$_2$(s) clouds are comprised of small ${\sim}0.01$ $\rmμ$m particles, which extend to high altitudes in the atmosphere. The atmosphere also shows a depletion of H$_2$O, a finding consistent with the formation of high-temperature aerosols from oxygen-rich species. This work is part of a series of studies by our JWST Telescope Scientist Team (JWST-TST), in which we will use Guaranteed Time Observations to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS).

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arXiv2024

JWST/NIRCam Transmission Spectroscopy of the Nearby Sub-Earth GJ 341b

We present a JWST/NIRCam transmission spectrum from $3.9-5.0$ $μ$m of the recently-validated sub-Earth GJ 341b ($\mathrm{R_P} = 0.92$ $\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$, $\mathrm{T_{eq}} = 540$ K) orbiting a nearby bright M1 star ($\mathrm{d} = 10.4$ pc, $\mathrm{K_{mag}}=5.6$). We use three independent pipelines to reduce the data from the three JWST visits and perform several tests to check for the significance of an atmosphere. Overall, our analysis does not uncover evidence of an atmosphere. Our null hypothesis tests find that none of our pipelines' transmission spectra can rule out a flat line, although there is weak evidence for a Gaussian feature in two spectra from different pipelines (at 2.3 and $2.9σ$). However, the candidate features are seen at different wavelengths (4.3 $μ$m vs 4.7 $μ$m), and our retrieval analysis finds that different gas species can explain these features in the two reductions (CO$_2$ at $3.1σ$ compared to O$_3$ at $2.9σ$), suggesting that they are not real astrophysical signals. Our forward model analysis rules out a low mean molecular weight atmosphere ($< 350\times$ solar metallicity) to at least $3σ$, and disfavors CH$_4$-dominated atmospheres at $1-3σ$, depending on the reduction. Instead, the forward models find our transmission spectra are consistent with no atmosphere, a hazy atmosphere, or an atmosphere containing a species that does not have prominent molecular bands across the NIRCam/F444W bandpass, such as a water-dominated atmosphere. Our results demonstrate the unequivocal need for two or more transit observations analyzed with multiple reduction pipelines, alongside rigorous statistical tests, to determine the robustness of molecular detections for small exoplanet atmospheres.

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arXiv2023

Double Trouble: Two Transits of the Super-Earth GJ 1132 b Observed with JWST NIRSpec G395H

The search for rocky planet atmospheres with JWST has focused on planets transiting M dwarfs. Such planets have favorable planet-to-star size ratios, enhancing the amplitude of atmospheric features. Since the expected signal strength of atmospheric features is similar to the single-transit performance of JWST, multiple observations are required to confirm any detection. Here, we present two transit observations of the rocky planet GJ 1132 b with JWST NIRSpec G395H, covering 2.8-5.2 $μ$m. Previous HST WFC3 observations of GJ 1132 b were inconclusive, with evidence reported for either an atmosphere or a featureless spectrum based on analyses of the same dataset. Our JWST data exhibit substantial differences between the two visits. One transit is consistent with either a H$_2$O-dominated atmosphere containing ~1% CH$_4$ and trace N$_2$O ($χ^{2}_ν$ = 1.13) or stellar contamination from unocculted starspots ($χ^{2}_ν$ = 1.36). However, the second transit is consistent with a featureless spectrum. Neither visit is consistent with a previous report of HCN. Atmospheric variability is unlikely to explain the scale of the observed differences between the visits. Similarly, our out-of-transit stellar spectra show no evidence of changing stellar inhomogeneity between the two visits - observed 8 days apart, only 6.5% of the stellar rotation rate. We further find no evidence of differing instrumental systematic effects between visits. The most plausible explanation is an unlucky random noise draw leading to two significantly discrepant transmission spectra. Our results highlight the importance of multi-visit repeatability with JWST prior to claiming atmospheric detections for these small, enigmatic planets.

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arXiv2022

Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRCam

Measuring the metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio in exoplanet atmospheres is a fundamental step towards constraining the dominant chemical processes at work and, if in equilibrium, revealing planet formation histories. Transmission spectroscopy provides the necessary means by constraining the abundances of oxygen- and carbon-bearing species; however, this requires broad wavelength coverage, moderate spectral resolution, and high precision that, together, are not achievable with previous observatories. Now that JWST has commenced science operations, we are able to observe exoplanets at previously uncharted wavelengths and spectral resolutions. Here we report time-series observations of the transiting exoplanet WASP-39b using JWST's Near InfraRed Camera (NIRCam). The long-wavelength spectroscopic and short-wavelength photometric light curves span 2.0 - 4.0 $μ$m, exhibit minimal systematics, and reveal well-defined molecular absorption features in the planet's spectrum. Specifically, we detect gaseous H$_2$O in the atmosphere and place an upper limit on the abundance of CH$_4$. The otherwise prominent CO$_2$ feature at 2.8 $μ$m is largely masked by H$_2$O. The best-fit chemical equilibrium models favour an atmospheric metallicity of 1-100$\times$ solar (i.e., an enrichment of elements heavier than helium relative to the Sun) and a sub-stellar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio. The inferred high metallicity and low C/O ratio may indicate significant accretion of solid materials during planet formation or disequilibrium processes in the upper atmosphere.

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arXiv2022

Hierarchical Bayesian Atmospheric Retrieval Modeling for Population Studies of Exoplanet Atmospheres: A Case Study on the Habitable Zone

With the growing number of spectroscopic observations and observational platforms capable of exoplanet atmospheric characterization, there is a growing need for analysis techniques that can distill information about a large population of exoplanets into a coherent picture of atmospheric trends expressed within the statistical sample. In this work, we develop a Hierarchical Bayesian Atmospheric Retrieval (HBAR) model to infer population-level trends in exoplanet atmospheric characteristics. We demonstrate HBAR on the case of inferring a trend in atmospheric CO2 with incident stellar flux, predicted by the presence of a functioning carbonate-silicate weathering negative feedback cycle, an assumption upon which all calculations of the habitable zone (HZ) rest. Using simulated transmission spectra and JWST-quality observations of rocky planets with H2O, CO2, and N2 bearing atmospheres, we find that the predicted trend in CO2 causes subtle differences in the spectra of order 10 ppm in the 1-5 um range, underscoring the challenge inherent to testing this hypothesis. In the limit of highly precise data (100 stacked transits per planet), we show that our HBAR model is capable of inferring the population-level parameters that characterize the trend in CO2, and we demonstrate that the null hypothesis and other simpler trends can be rejected at high confidence. Although we find that this specific empirical test of the HZ may be prohibitively challenging in the JWST era, the HBAR framework developed in this work may find a more immediate usage for the analysis of gas giant spectra observed with JWST, Ariel, and other upcoming missions.

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arXiv2021

Retrieving Exoplanet Atmospheres using Planetary Infrared Excess: Prospects for the Nightside of WASP-43 b and other Hot Jupiters

To increase the sample size of future atmospheric characterization efforts, we build on the planetary infrared excess (PIE) technique that has been proposed as a means to detect and characterize the thermal spectra of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets using sufficiently broad wavelength coverage to uniquely constrain the stellar and planetary spectral components from spatially unresolved observations. We performed simultaneous retrievals of stellar and planetary spectra for the archetypal planet WASP-43b in its original configuration and a non-transiting configuration to determine the efficacy of the PIE technique for characterizing the planet's nightside atmospheric thermal structure and composition using typical out-of-transit JWST observations. We found that using PIE with JWST should enable the stellar and planetary spectra to be disentangled with no degeneracies seen between the two flux sources, thus allowing robust constraints on the planet's nightside thermal structure and water abundance to be retrieved. The broad wavelength coverage achieved by combining spectra from NIRISS, NIRSpec, and MIRI enables PIE retrievals that are within 10% of the precision attained using traditional secondary eclipse measurements, although mid-IR observations with MIRI alone may face up to 3.5 times lower precision on the planet's irradiation temperature. For non-transiting planets with unconstrained radius priors, we were able to identify and break the degeneracy between planet radius and irradiation temperature using data that resolved the peak of both the stellar and planetary spectra, thus potentially increasing the number of planets amenable to atmospheric characterization with JWST and other future mission concepts.

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arXiv2021

On the Utility of Transmission Color Analysis I: Differentiating Super-Earths and Sub-Neptunes

The majority of exoplanets found to date have been discovered via the transit method, and transmission spectroscopy represents the primary method of studying these distant worlds. Currently, in-depth atmospheric characterization of transiting exoplanets entails the use of spectrographs on large telescopes, requiring significant observing time to study each planet. Previous studies have demonstrated trends for solar system worlds using color-color photometry of reflectance spectra, as well as trends within transmission spectra for hot Jupiters. Building on these concepts, we have investigated the use of transmission color photometric analysis for efficient, coarse categorization of exoplanets and for assessing the nature of these worlds, with a focus on resolving the bulk composition degeneracy to aid in discriminating super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. We present our methodology and first results, including spectrum models, model comparison frameworks, and wave band selection criteria. We present our results for different transmission "color" metrics, filter selection methods, and numbers of filters. Assuming noise-free spectra of isothermal atmospheres in chemical equilibrium, with our pipeline, we are able to constrain atmospheric mean molecular weight in order to distinguish between super-Earth and sub-Neptune atmospheres with >90$\%$ overall accuracy using as few as two specific low-resolution filter combinations. We also found that increasing the number of filters does not substantially impact this performance. This method could allow for broad characterization of large numbers of planets much more efficiently than current methods permit, enabling population and system-level studies. Additionally, data collected via this method could inform follow-up observing time by large telescopes for more detailed studies of worlds of interest.

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