arXiv subjects

Krzysztof Urbanowicz

Publications and source records attributed to Krzysztof Urbanowicz.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2014

A simple model of local prices and associated risk evaluation

A simple spin system is constructed to simulate dynamics of asset prices and studied numerically. The outcome for the distribution of prices is shown to depend both on the dimension of the system and the introduction of price into the link measure. For dimensions below 2, the associated risk is high and the price distribution is bimodal. For higher dimensions, the price distribution is Gaussian and the associated risk is much lower. It is suggested that the results are relevant to rare assets or situations where few players are involved in the deal making process.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2014

Entropy and Optimization of Portfolios

We briefly review the approach to optimization of portfolios according to the theory of Markowitz and propose a further modification that can improve the outcome of the optimization process. The modification takes account of the entropic contribution from the time series used to compute the parameters in the Markowitz method.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2007

Risk evaluation with enhaced covariance matrix

We propose a route for the evaluation of risk based on a transformation of the covariance matrix. The approach uses a `potential' or `objective' function. This allows us to rescale data from different assets (or sources) such that each data set then has similar statistical properties in terms of their probability distributions. The method is tested using historical data from both the New York and Warsaw Stock Exchanges.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2007

Improvement of speech recognition by nonlinear noise reduction

The success of nonlinear noise reduction applied to a single channel recording of human voice is measured in terms of the recognition rate of a commercial speech recognition program in comparison to the optimal linear filter. The overall performance of the nonlinear method is shown to be superior. We hence demonstrate that an algorithm which has its roots in the theory of nonlinear deterministic dynamics possesses a large potential in a realistic application.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2005

Noise reduction for flows using nonlinear constraints

On the basis of a local-projective with nonlinear constraints (LPNC) approach (see K. Urbanowicz, J.A. Holyst, T. Stemler and H. Benner, Acta Phys. Pol B 35 (9), 2175, 2004) we develop a method of noise reduction in time series that makes use of constraints appearing due to the continuous character of flows. As opposed to local-projective methods in our method we do not need to determine the Jacobi matrix. The approach has been successfully applied for separating a signal from noise in the Lorenz model and in noisy experimental data obtained from an electronic Chua circuit. The method was then applied for filtering noise in human voice.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2005

Application of noise level estimation for portfolio optimization

Time changes of noise level at Warsaw Stock Market are analyzed using a recently developed method basing on properties of the coarse grained entropy. The condition of the minimal noise level is used to build an efficient portfolio. Our noise level approach seems to be a much better tool for risk estimations than standard volatility parameters. Implementation of a corresponding threshold investment strategy gives positive returns for historical data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2004

Investment strategy due to the minimization of portfolio noise level by observations of coarse-grained entropy

Using a recently developed method of noise level estimation that makes use of properties of the coarse grained-entropy we have analyzed the noise level for the Dow Jones index and a few stocks from the New York Stock Exchange. We have found that the noise level ranges from 40 to 80 percent of the signal variance. The condition of a minimal noise level has been applied to construct optimal portfolios from selected shares. We show that implementation of a corresponding threshold investment strategy leads to positive returns for historical data.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2004

Noise estimation by use of neighboring distances in Takens space and its applications to stock market data

We present a method that uses distances between nearest neighbors in Takens space to evaluate a level of noise. The method is valid even for high noise levels. The method has been verified by estimation of noise levels in several chaotic systems. We have analyzed the noise level for Dow Jones and DAX indexes and we have found that the noise level ranges from 25 to 80 percent of the signal variance.

cond-mat.other↗

arXiv2004

Anti-deterministic behavior of discrete systems that are less predictable than noise

We present a new type of deterministic dynamical behaviour that is less predictable than white noise. We call it anti-deterministic (AD) because time series corresponding to the dynamics of such systems do not generate deterministic lines in Recurrence Plots for small thresholds. We show that although the dynamics is chaotic in the sense of exponential divergence of nearby initial conditions and although some properties of AD data are similar to white noise, the AD dynamics is in fact less predictable than noise and hence is different from pseudo-random number generators.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2004

Estimation of a Noise Level Using Coarse-Grained Entropy of Experimental Time Series of Internal Pressure in a Combustion Engine

We report our results on non-periodic experimental time series of pressure in a single cylinder spark ignition engine. The experiments were performed for different levels of loading. We estimate the noise level in internal pressure calculating the coarse-grained entropy from variations of maximal pressures in successive cycles. The results show that the dynamics of the combustion is a nonlinear multidimensional process mediated by noise. Our results show that so defined level of noise in internal pressure is not monotonous function of loading.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2004

Noise reduction in chaotic time series by a local projection with nonlinear constraints

On the basis of a local-projective (LP) approach we develop a method of noise reduction in time series that makes use of nonlinear constraints appearing due to the deterministic character of the underlying dynamical system. The Delaunay triangulation approach is used to find the optimal nearest neighboring points in time series. The efficiency of our method is comparable to standard LP methods but our method is more robust to the input parameter estimation. The approach has been successfully applied for separating a signal from noise in the chaotic Henon and Lorenz models as well as for noisy experimental data obtained from an electronic Chua circuit. The method works properly for a mixture of additive and dynamical noise and can be used for the noise-level detection.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗