arXiv subjects

Kyle A. Oman

Publications and source records attributed to Kyle A. Oman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The descendants of $z \gtrsim 10$ JWST galaxies in the COLIBRE simulations

Recent observations with JWST have revealed a population of UV-bright galaxies at $z\gtrsim 10$. This discovery naturally raises the question: what do such early galaxies evolve into by the present day? In this work, we address this descendant question using the new-generation COLIBRE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to trace bright galaxies selected at $z=10$ and follow their descendants to the present day. Most of the high-redshift galaxies do not survive as distinct, self-bound objects to $z=0$; instead, the majority are incorporated into more massive systems through merging or disruption. The surviving descendants span a broad range of present-day stellar masses, although they are most commonly intermediate- to high-mass, $M_\star\sim10^{10}$--$10^{11} M_\odot$. They typically reside in galaxy groups and clusters, with host halo masses, $M_{200c}\sim10^{13}$--$10^{14} M_\odot$. The large scatter in descendant stellar mass shows that present-day outcomes retain only a weak memory of the stellar mass of the high-redshift progenitor. We show that the evolution of descendant host halo masses is consistent with the forward conditional distribution predicted by extended Press--Schechter (EPS) theory, both in the median growth and in the large scatter in descendant mass. In particular, EPS confirms that massive present-day galaxies typically do not originate from the most massive objects at high redshift. A galaxy observed at $z\gtrsim10$ therefore cannot be interpreted as the direct progenitor of a single class of $z=0$ galaxies.

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arXiv2026

The evolution of the sizes and angular momentum content of galaxies in the COLIBRE simulations

We analyse the sizes and specific angular momentum content of galaxies in the Colibre cosmological hydrodynamical simulations spanning two orders of magnitude in mass resolution. We compare the predicted size-mass and angular momentum-mass relations to a broad range of observational measurements spanning redshifts $z=0$ to $4$. At $z=0$, Colibre reproduces observed size-mass relations over the sampled mass range $10^8 \lesssim M_\star/{\rm M_\odot}\lesssim 10^{11.5}$, and for multiple size definitions, including two- and three-dimensional stellar half-mass radii, half-light radii across several wavelengths, as well as alternative measures such as baryonic half-mass radii and characteristic radii defined by stellar surface density thresholds. The simulations also recover the observed segregation of galaxies in the size-mass plane by morphological type and star formation rate, and reproduce the distinct, approximately parallel sequences followed by star-forming discs and quenched spheroids in the stellar specific angular momentum-mass plane. The angular momentum content of star-forming Colibre galaxies matches that of observed systems out to $z\approx 1.5$. At higher redshifts, massive galaxies ($ 10^{9.5}\lesssim M_\star/{\rm M_\odot}\lesssim 10^{11}$) in the simulations are somewhat smaller than observed, and the separation between star-forming and passive populations in the size-mass plane is reduced relative to observations, while at lower masses the agreement remains good. This apparent discrepancy may reflect the effects of dust attenuation, which is neglected in our analysis and may preferentially obscure the central regions of observed systems. Overall, our findings highlight the close connection between galaxy size, angular momentum, and morphology over cosmic time.

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arXiv2026

Consequences of radially correlated rotation curves for galaxy mass models

Consecutive points in rotation curve measurements are correlated with each other, but this is usually ignored when constructing galaxy mass models. We apply a recently proposed data-driven approach to include the characteristic amplitude and scale length of such correlations as `nuisance parameters'. We construct mass models for $134$ galaxies from the SPARC rotation curve compilation with Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) and pseudo-isothermal sphere (pISO) models for the dark halo. Allowing for correlations in the rotation curves generally improves the goodness of fit for both halo models, often yielding a formally good fit ($χ^2_\mathrm{r}\approx 1$) and model uncertainties that seem more representative of the constraining power of the data. For both halo models the inference on the typical correlation amplitude and scale length are very similar and physically plausible, $\sim 20\,\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ and $\sim 5\,\mathrm{kpc}$, respectively. The parametric form that we use to describe the correlations is intentionally simple, and our fitting approach makes the parameters describing possible correlations prone to `absorbing' other systematic errors, so we regard these estimates as upper limits. Without allowing for correlations we find a statistical preference for the pISO over the NFW model for $88$/$134$ galaxies; this preference essentially disappears when correlations are allowed for. Accounting for correlations in rotation curves when constructing mass models fundamentally affects how they are interpreted, highlighting an important systematic uncertainty that affects evidence for cusps or cores in dark matter haloes.

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arXiv2026

The abundance of thin dwarf galaxies: a challenge for cosmological simulations

We study the prevalence of thin galaxies as a function of stellar mass in the range $10^7 < M_{\star} / \rm{M_\odot} < 10^{11}$ using data from the GAMA, DESI, ALFALFA, and Nearby Galaxy catalogs. We use the distribution of projected axis ratios, $q$, to infer the abundance of intrinsically flat galaxies needed to reproduce the observed abundance of highly elongated systems in projection. We find that as many as $40\%$ of galaxies in the mass range $10^9<M_{\star}/\rm{M_\odot}<10^{10}$ are intrinsically flatter than $1$:$5$ (i.e., $c/a<0.2$), a fraction that rises to $\sim 80\%$ for $c/a<0.3$. Although the incidence of thin galaxies decreases towards lower and higher $M_{\star}$, they are still quite common in dwarfs: $\sim 30\%$ and $\sim 65\%$ of $\sim 10^8 ~ \rm{M_\odot}$ galaxies are inferred to be intrinsically flatter than $c/a=0.2$ and $0.3$, respectively. A comparison of these results with several state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamical simulations (TNG50, FIREbox, Romulus25) reveals a distinctive lack of thin simulated dwarfs. In particular, there are no $M_{\star} < 10^9 ~ \rm{M_{\odot}}$ simulated galaxies flatter than $c/a=0.2$, in clear contrast with observational samples. This discrepancy likely reflects limitations in resolution and in the treatment of baryonic physics, suggesting that our understanding of the mechanisms regulating the formation of disk galaxies less massive than the Milky Way is still quite incomplete. Our results present a clear challenge to current numerical models of dwarf galaxy formation, which future models should attempt to meet.

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arXiv2026

Dynamical disequilibrium in dwarf galaxies: rethinking gas dynamics, rotation curves, and dark matter inference

We quantify departures from hydrodynamical and centrifugal equilibrium in the gas discs of low-mass ($10^{10.75}<M_\mathrm{200c}/\mathrm{M}_\odot<10^{11}$) galaxies from the COLIBRE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. We evaluate the full Eulerian acceleration balance in the midplane and show that disequilibrium is widespread: equilibrium-based circular velocity estimates typically have errors of $\geq 10$ per cent ($\approx 75$ per cent of midplane gas by mass). Disequilibrium is strongest and the largest associated errors occur in the inner few kiloparsecs that are crucial for constraining the dark matter density profile. Correcting the circular velocity to account for pressure and convective terms does not reliably improve its recovery in strongly perturbed systems where time-dependent forces dominate the residual acceleration budget. Stellar feedback, self-gravitating gas clumps and AGN energy injection account for most strong local perturbations, and large-scale gravitational asymmetries act as a scaffold for disequilibrium. We classify gas discs into coherent, perturbed, and slow/erratic rotators and show that this classification correlates with galaxy properties like mass, morphology and tracers of recent feedback. A majority of galaxies in our sample would be unsuitable for standard rotation curve analysis. Much of the observed diversity in the shapes of dwarf galaxy rotation curves may stem from non-equilibrium gas motions rather than diversity in mass profiles - resolving the discrepancy is then first and foremost a problem in gas dynamics.

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arXiv2025

The lives and deaths of faint satellite galaxies around M31

We present predictions for proper motions, infall times and times of first pericentric passage for 39 of M31's satellite galaxies. We estimate these by sampling satellite orbits from cosmological N-body simulations matched on mass, distance and velocity along the line of sight, in addition to properties of the host system. Our predictions are probabilistic based on repeated sampling from the uncertainty distributions of all quantities involved. We use these constraints on the satellites' orbital histories in conjunction with their published star formation histories to investigate the dominant environmental mechanisms for quenching satellites of M31-like hosts. Around half of the satellites appear to have quenched before their first pericentric passage around M31. Only the most massive satellites (with stellar masses > 10^8 M_sun) are able to maintain star formation for up to billions of years after infall. The majority of faint satellites, with stellar masses < 10^8 M_sun , were likely quenched before entering the M31 system. We compare our results for M31 against predictions for the Milky Way's satellites from the literature; M31's has a more active recent accretion history with more recently quenched satellites than the Milky Way.

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arXiv2025

SWIFTGalaxy: a Python package to work with particle groups from SWIFT simulations

SWIFTGalaxy is an open-source astrophysics module that extends SWIFTSimIO to analyses of particles belonging to individual galaxies simulated with SWIFT. It inherits from and extends the functionality of SWIFTSimIO's SWIFTDataset class. It understands the content of halo catalogues and therefore which particles belong to a galaxy or other group of particles, and its integrated properties. The particles occupy a coordinate frame that is enforced to be consistent, such that particles loaded on-the-fly will match e.g.~rotations and translations of particles already in memory. Intuitive masking of particle datasets is also enabled. Utilities to make working in cylindrical and spherical coordinate systems more convenient are also provided. Finally, tools to iterate efficiently over multiple galaxies are provided.

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arXiv2025

Auriga Streams I: disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass haloes at multiple resolutions

In a hierarchically formed Universe, galaxies accrete smaller systems that tidally disrupt as they evolve in the host's potential. We present a complete catalogue of disrupting galaxies accreted onto Milky Way-mass haloes from the Auriga suite of cosmological magnetohydrodynamic zoom-in simulations. We classify accretion events as intact satellites, stellar streams, or phase-mixed systems based on automated criteria calibrated to a visually classified sample, and match accretions to their counterparts in haloes re-simulated at higher resolution. Most satellites with a bound progenitor at the present day have lost substantial amounts of stellar mass -- 67 per cent have $f_\text{bound} < 0.97$ (our threshold of lost stellar mass to no longer be considered intact), while 53 per cent satisfy a more stringent $f_\text{bound} < 0.8$. Streams typically outnumber intact systems, contribute a smaller fraction of overall accreted stars, and are substantial contributors at intermediate distances from the host centre ($\sim$0.1 to $\sim$0.7$R_\text{200m}$, or $\sim$35 to $\sim$250 kpc for the Milky Way). We also identify accretion events that disrupt to form streams around massive intact satellites instead of the main host. Streams are more likely than intact or phase-mixed systems to have experienced preprocessing, suggesting this mechanism is important for setting disruption rates around Milky Way-mass haloes. All of these results are preserved across different simulation resolutions, though we do find some hints that satellites disrupt more readily at lower resolution. The Auriga haloes suggest that disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass galaxies are the norm and that a wealth of tidal features waits to be uncovered in upcoming surveys.

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arXiv2025

HI asymmetries in spatially resolved SIMBA galaxies

We present a study of the neutral atomic hydrogen (HI) content of spatially resolved, low-redshift galaxies in the SIMBA cosmological simulations. We create synthetic HI data cubes designed to match observations from the Apertif Medium-Deep HI imaging survey, and follow an observational approach to derive the HI size-mass relation. The HI size-mass relation for SIMBA is in broad agreement with the observed relation to within 0.1 dex, but SIMBA galaxies are slightly smaller than expected at fixed HI mass. We quantify the HI spectral ($A_{\mathrm{flux}}$) and morphological ($A_{\mathrm{mod}}$) asymmetries of the galaxies and motivate standardizing the relative spatial resolution when comparing values in a sample that spans several orders of magnitude in HI mass. Galaxies are classified into three categories (isolated, interacted, or merged) based on their dynamical histories over the preceding ~2 Gyr to contextualize disturbances in their HI reservoirs. We determine that the interacted and merged categories have higher mean asymmetries than the isolated category, with a larger separation between the categories' $A_{\mathrm{mod}}$ distributions than between their $A_{\mathrm{flux}}$ distributions. For the interacted and merged categories, we find an inverse correlation between baryonic mass and $A_{\mathrm{mod}}$ that is not observed between baryonic mass and $A_{\mathrm{flux}}$. These results, coupled with the weak correlation found between $A_{\mathrm{flux}}$ and $A_{\mathrm{mod}}$, highlight the limitations of only using $A_{\mathrm{flux}}$ to infer the HI distributions of spatially unresolved HI detections.

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arXiv2025

Star formation and stellar & AGN feedback in the absence of accretion, not gas stripping, set the quenching timescale in satellite galaxies

Observational measurements hint at a peak in the quenching timescale of satellite galaxies in groups and clusters as a function of their stellar masses at $M_{\star} \approx 10^{9.5} \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$; less and more massive satellite galaxies quench faster. We investigate the origin of these trends using the EAGLE simulation in which they are qualitatively reproduced for satellites with $10^{9}<M_{\star}/\mathrm{M}_\odot<10^{11}$ around hosts of $10^{13}<M_\mathrm{200c}/\mathrm{M}_\odot<10^{14.6}$. We select gas particles of simulated galaxies at the time that they become satellites and track their evolution. Interpreting these data yields insights into the prevailing mechanism that leads to the depletion of the interstellar medium (ISM) and the cessation of star formation. We find that for satellites across our entire range in stellar mass the quenching timescale is to leading order set by the depletion of the ISM by star formation and stellar & AGN feedback in the absence of sustained accretion of fresh gas. The turnover in the quenching timescale as a function of stellar mass is a direct consequence of the maximum in the star formation efficiency (or equivalently the minimum in the total -- stellar plus AGN -- feedback efficiency) at the same stellar mass. We can discern the direct stripping of the ISM by ram pressure and/or tides in the simulations; these mechanisms modulate the quenching timescale but do not drive its overall scaling with satellite stellar mass. Our findings argue against a scenario in which the turnover in the quenching timescale is a consequence of the competing influences of gas stripping and 'starvation'.

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arXiv2025

WALLABY Pilot Survey & ASymba: Comparing HI Detection Asymmetries to the SIMBA Simulation

An avenue for understanding cosmological galaxy formation is to compare morphometric parameters in observations and simulations of galaxy assembly. In this second paper of the ASymba: Asymmetries of HI in SIMBA Galaxies series, we measure atomic gas HI asymmetries in spatially-resolved detections from the untargetted WALLABY survey, and compare them to realizations of WALLABY-like mock samples from the SIMBA cosmological simulations. We develop a Scanline Tracing method to create mock galaxy HI datacubes which minimizes shot noise along the spectral dimension compared to particle-based methods, and therefore spurious asymmetry contributions. We compute 1D and 3D asymmetries for spatially-resolved WALLABY Pilot Survey detections, and find that the highest 3D asymmetries A3D>0.5 stem from interacting systems or detections with strong bridges or tails. We then construct a series of WALLABY-like mock realizations drawn from the SIMBA 50 Mpc simulation volume, and compare their asymmetry distributions. We find that the incidence of high A3D detections is higher in WALLABY than in the SIMBA mocks, but that difference is not statistically significant (p-value = 0.05). The statistical power of quantitative comparisons of asymmetries such as the one presented here will improve as the WALLABY survey progresses, and as simulation volumes and resolutions increase.

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arXiv2024

ARTEMIS emulator: exploring the effect of cosmology and galaxy formation physics on Milky Way-mass haloes and their satellites

We present the new ARTEMIS Emulator suite of high resolution (baryon mass of $2.23 \times 10^{4}$ $h^{-1}$M$_{\odot}$) zoom-in simulations of Milky Way mass systems. Here, three haloes from the original ARTEMIS sample have been rerun multiple times, systematically varying parameters for the stellar feedback model, the density threshold for star formation, the reionisation redshift and the assumed warm dark matter (WDM) particle mass (assuming a thermal relic). From these simulations emulators are trained for a wide range of statistics that allow for fast predictions at combinations of parameters not originally sampled, running in $\sim 1$ms (a factor of $\sim 10^{11}$ faster than the simulations). In this paper we explore the dependence of the central haloes' stellar mass on the varied parameters, finding the stellar feedback parameters to be the most important. When constraining the parameters to match the present-day stellar mass halo mass relation inferred from abundance matching we find that there is a strong degeneracy in the stellar feedback parameters, corresponding to a freedom in formation time of the stellar component for a fixed halo assembly history. We additionally explore the dependence of the satellite stellar mass function, where it is found that variations in stellar feedback, the reionisation redshift and the WDM mass all have a significant effect. The presented emulators are a powerful tool which allows for fundamentally new ways of analysing and interpreting cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. Crucially, allowing their free (subgrid) parameters to be varied and marginalised, leading to more robust constraints and predictions.

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arXiv2024

A warm dark matter cosmogony may yield more low-mass galaxy detections in 21-cm surveys than a cold dark matter one

The 21-cm spectral line widths, $w_{50}$, of galaxies are an approximate tracer of their dynamical masses, such that the dark matter halo mass function is imprinted in the number density of galaxies as a function of $w_{50}$. Correcting observed number counts for survey incompleteness at the level of accuracy needed to place competitive constraints on warm dark matter (WDM) cosmological models is very challenging, but forward-modelling the results of cosmological hydrodynamical galaxy formation simulations into observational data space is more straightforward. We take this approach to make predictions for an ALFALFA-like survey from simulations using the EAGLE galaxy formation model in both cold (CDM) and WDM cosmogonies. We find that for WDM cosmogonies more galaxies are detected at the low-$w_{50}$ end of the 21-cm velocity width function than in the CDM cosmogony, contrary to what might naïvely be expected from the suppression of power on small scales in such models. This is because low-mass galaxies form later and retain more gas in WDM cosmogonies (with EAGLE). While some shortcomings in the treatment of cold gas in the EAGLE model preclude placing definitive constraints on WDM scenarios, our analysis illustrates that near-future simulations with more accurate modelling of cold gas will likely make strong constraints possible, especially in conjunction with new 21-cm surveys such as WALLABY.

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arXiv2024

MARTINI: Mock Array Radio Telescope Interferometry of the Neutral ISM

MARTINI is a modular Python package that takes smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of galaxies as input and creates synthetic spatially- and/or spectrally-resolved observations of the 21-cm radio emission line of atomic hydrogen (data cubes). The various aspects of the mock-observing process are divided logically into sub-modules handling the data cube, source galaxy, telescope beam pattern, noise, spectral model and SPH kernel. MARTINI is object-oriented: each sub-module provides a class (or classes) which can be configured as desired. For most sub-modules, base classes are provided to allow for straightforward customization. Instances of each sub-module class are given as parameters to an instance of a main "Martini" class; a mock observation is then constructed by calling a handful of functions to execute the desired steps in the mock-observing process.

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arXiv2024

A homogeneous measurement of the delay between the onsets of gas stripping and star formation quenching in satellite galaxies of groups and clusters

We combine orbital information from N-body simulations with an analytic model for star formation quenching and SDSS observations to infer the differential effect of the group/cluster environment on star formation in satellite galaxies. We also consider a model for gas stripping, using the same input supplemented with HI fluxes from the ALFALFA survey. The models are motivated by and tested on the Hydrangea cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We recover the characteristic times when satellite galaxies are stripped and quenched. Stripping in massive ($M_\mathrm{ vir}\sim 10^{14.5}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$) clusters typically occurs at or just before the first pericentric passage. Lower mass ($\sim10^{13.5}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$) groups strip their satellites on a significantly longer (by $\sim3\,\mathrm{Gyr}$) timescale. Quenching occurs later: Balmer emission lines typically fade $\sim3.5\,\mathrm{Gyr}$ ($5.5\,\mathrm{Gyr}$) after first pericentre in clusters (groups), followed a few hundred $\mathrm{Myr}$ later by reddenning in $(g-r)$ colour. These `delay timescales' are remarkably constant across the entire satellite stellar mass range probed ($\sim10^{9.5}-10^{11}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$), a feature closely tied to our treatment of `group pre-processing'. The lowest mass groups in our sample ($\sim10^{12.5}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$) strip and quench their satellites extremely inefficiently: typical timescales may approach the age of the Universe. Our measurements are qualitatively consistent with the `delayed-then-rapid' quenching scenario advocated for by several other studies, but we find significantly longer delay times. Our combination of a homogeneous analysis and input catalogues yields new insight into the sequence of events leading to quenching across wide intervals in host and satellite mass.

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arXiv2024

Constraining quenching timescales in galaxy clusters by forward-modelling stellar ages and quiescent fractions in projected phase space

We forward-model mass-weighted stellar ages (MWAs) and quiescent fractions in projected phase space (PPS), using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, to jointly constrain an infall quenching model for galaxies in $\log(M_{\mathrm{vir}}/\mathrm{M}_{\odot})>14$ galaxy clusters at $z\sim 0$. We find the average deviation in MWA from the MWA-$M_\star$ relation depends on position in PPS, with a maximum difference between the inner cluster and infalling interloper galaxies of $\sim 1$ Gyr. Our model employs infall information from N-body simulations and stochastic star-formation histories from the UniverseMachine model. We find total quenching times of $t_\mathrm{Q}=3.7\pm 0.4$ Gyr and $t_\mathrm{Q}=4.0\pm 0.2$ Gyr after first pericentre, for $9<\log(M_{\star}/\mathrm{M}_{\odot})<10$ and $10<\log(M_{\star}/\mathrm{M}_{\odot})<10.5$ galaxies, respectively. By using MWAs, we break the degeneracy in time of quenching onset and timescale of star formation rate (SFR) decline. We find that time of quenching onset relative to pericentre is $t_{\mathrm{delay}}=3.5^{+0.6}_{-0.9}$ Gyr and $t_{\mathrm{delay}}=-0.3^{+0.8}_{-1.0}$ Gyr for our lower and higher stellar mass bins, respectively, and exponential SFR suppression timescales are $τ_{\mathrm{env}}\leq 1.0$ Gyr and $τ_{\mathrm{env}}\sim 2.3$ Gyr for our lower and higher stellar mass bins, respectively. Stochastic star formation histories remove the need for rapid infall quenching to maintain the bimodality in the SFR of cluster galaxies; the depth of the green valley prefers quenching onsets close to first pericentre and a longer quenching envelope, in slight tension with the MWA-driven results. Taken together these results suggest that quenching begins close to, or just after pericentre, but the timescale for quenching to be fully complete is much longer and therefore ram-pressure stripping is not complete on first pericentric passage.

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arXiv2024

The diversity of rotation curves of simulated galaxies with cusps and cores

We use $Λ$CDM cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to explore the kinematics of gaseous discs in late-type dwarf galaxies. We create high-resolution 21-cm 'observations' of simulated dwarfs produced in two variations of the EAGLE galaxy formation model: one where supernova-driven gas flows redistribute dark matter and form constant-density central 'cores', and another where the central 'cusps' survive intact. We 'observe' each galaxy along multiple sight lines and derive a rotation curve for each observation using a conventional tilted-ring approach to model the gas kinematics. We find that the modelling process introduces systematic discrepancies between the recovered rotation curve and the actual circular velocity curve driven primarily by (i) non-circular gas orbits within the discs; (ii) the finite thickness of gaseous discs, which leads to overlap of different radii in projection; and (iii) departures from dynamical equilibrium. Dwarfs with dark matter cusps often appear to have a core, whilst the inverse error is less common. These effects naturally reproduce an observed trend which other models struggle to explain: late-type dwarfs with more steeply-rising rotation curves appear to be dark matter-dominated in the inner regions, whereas the opposite seems to hold in galaxies with core-like rotation curves. We conclude that if similar effects affect the rotation curves of observed dwarfs, a late-type dwarf population in which all galaxies have sizeable dark matter cores is most likely incompatible with current measurements.

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arXiv2024

An overlooked source of uncertainty in the mass of the Milky Way

In the conventional approach to decomposing a rotation curve into a set of contributions from mass model components, the measurements of the rotation curve at different radii are taken to be independent. It is clear, however, that radial correlations are present in such data, for instance (but not only) because the orbital speed depends on the mass distribution at all (or, minimally, inner) radii. We adopt a very simple parametric form for a covariance matrix and constrain its parameters using Gaussian process regression. Applied to the rotation curve of the Milky Way, this suggests the presence of correlations between neighbouring rotation curve points with amplitudes $<10\,\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ over length scales of $1.5$-$2.5\,\mathrm{kpc}$ regardless of the assumed dark halo component. We show that accounting for such covariance can result in a $\sim 50$ per cent lower total mass estimate for the Milky Way than when it is neglected, and that the statistical uncertainty associated with the covariance is comparable to or exceeds the total systematic uncertainty budget. Our findings motivate including more detailed treatment of rotation curve covariance in future analyses.

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