arXiv subjects

Kyle A. Rocha

Publications and source records attributed to Kyle A. Rocha.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Forming Double Neutron Stars using Detailed Binary Evolution Models with POSYDON: Comparison to the Galactic Systems

With over two dozen detections in the Milky Way, double neutron stars (DNSs) provide a unique window into massive binary evolution. We use the POSYDON binary population synthesis code to model DNS populations and compare them to the observed Galactic sample. By tracing their origins to underlying single and binary star physics, we place constraints on the detailed evolutionary stages leading to DNS formation. Our study reveals a bifurcation within the well-known common envelope (CE) formation channel for DNSs, which naturally explains an observed split in the orbital periods of the Galactic systems. The two subchannels are defined by whether the donor star has a helium core (Case B mass transfer) or a carbon-oxygen core (Case C) at the onset of the CE, with only the helium core systems eventually merging due to gravitational wave-modulated orbital decay. We find that across different treatments of the CE phase, the formation of DNSs through both subchannels requires either a generous core definition of $\simeq$ 30% H-fraction or a high CE ejection efficiency of $α_{\rm CE}\gtrsim1.2$. By testing different supernova kick velocity models, we find that galactic DNSs are best reproduced using a prescription that favors low velocity kicks ($\lesssim 50 \, \rm km/s$), in agreement with previous studies. Furthermore, our models indicate that merging DNSs are born from a stripped progenitor with a median pre-supernova envelope mass $\sim$ 0.2$M_{\odot}$. Our results highlight the value of detailed evolutionary models for improving our understanding of exotic binary star formation.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

How Common Are Common Envelopes? Quantifying Their Role in Forming Gravitational-Wave Sources

A central goal of gravitational-wave astronomy is to use merging binary black hole (BBH), black hole-neutron star (BHNS), and binary neutron star (BNS) systems as fossils to reconstruct the formation and evolution of massive stars across cosmic time. In practice, this inference relies on population-synthesis models that map massive stellar binaries to merging compact objects. However, these models disagree on the dominant orbital-hardening mechanisms within isolated binary evolution, particularly on whether common-envelope (CE) evolution is required. To address this, we compile and systematically compare formation-channel predictions from more than 200 isolated-binary population-synthesis simulations, organized within a unified hierarchical taxonomy. We find that BBH and BHNS formation pathways span nearly the full allowed range from CE-dominated to without-CE-dominated evolution (0-100%), while often predicting similar merger rates, revealing a fundamental degeneracy: merger-rate measurements alone do not uniquely constrain the underlying evolutionary pathways. In contrast, BNS formation proceeds almost exclusively through channels involving at least one CE phase (>90-100%), suggesting CE evolution plays a qualitatively different role in BNS than in BBH and BHNS formation. The relative contributions of with-CE and without-CE pathways are governed primarily by assumptions controlling mass-transfer stability, angular-momentum loss, CE efficiency, and supernova physics, which often act non-linearly and in correlated fashion, such that trends from one-at-a-time parameter variations do not generalize across simulation frameworks. Robust interpretation of gravitational-wave populations will therefore require transparent formation-channel definitions, reproducible analysis pipelines, systematic cross-code comparisons, and observational constraints that extend beyond merger rates alone.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Massquerade: Impacts of Mass Ratio Reversals on Binary Black Hole Merger Rates and Mass Distributions

We investigate the role of mass ratio reversal (MRR), in which the initially less massive star in a binary forms the more massive compact object, in shaping the astrophysical binary black hole (BBH) merger rate and mass distribution inferred by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA, comparing simulation outcomes from population synthesis frameworks COMPAS and SEVN. We find that the observational imprint of MRR differs qualitatively between the two models. In COMPAS, MRR systems dominate the merger rate density at high primary masses ( $\gtrsim$ 12 M$_\odot$), high secondary masses ( $\gtrsim$ 20 M$_\odot$), and high mass ratios ($q>0.6$), whereas in SEVN, MRR systems remain subdominant across the BBH mass distribution. This implies that the initially less massive star can massquerade as the observed primary black hole, such that the primary-mass distribution is not a direct tracer of the initially more massive stars, but instead a superposition of physically distinct evolutionary populations. We identify in the simulations three distinct evolutionary pathways leading to MRR systems: core-growth, in which stable mass transfer increases the helium-core mass of the secondary; PPISN-shrinking, where pulsational pair-instability episodes reduce the primary remnant mass; and asymmetric-CCSN, where differential supernova mass loss drives the reversal. When weighted by the local BBH merger-rate density, the core-growth channel dominates almost exclusively. MRR systems predominantly originate from massive ($\gtrsim$ 50 M$_\odot$), low-metallicity progenitors, with most of the systems forming below 0.1 $Z_\odot$. Our results demonstrate that MRR is a physically distinct and potentially observable feature of isolated binary evolution. Accounting for MRR will be important for robustly connecting future gravitational-wave observations to the physics of massive binary evolution and compact-object formation.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Modelling the Future of Gaia Neutron Star-Main Sequence Binaries: From Eccentric Orbits to Millisecond Pulsar-White Dwarfs

We model the evolution of 21 Gaia neutron star (NS)-main-sequence binaries (orbital period $P_{\mathrm{orb}}\sim200$--$1000$ days, eccentricity $e\gtrsim0.2$) using binary evolution with \texttt{MESA}. We examine eccentric mass transfer and models assuming prior circularization. All systems end as NS-white dwarf (WD) binaries, but transfer modes yield distinct outcomes. Under eccentric transfer, binaries are driven to higher $e$, forming orbits with $e\gtrsim0.6$ and $P_{\rm orb}\sim1000$-$4000$ days. Periastron bursts are brief ($\lesssim10^6$ yr), transfer only a few $\times10^{-2}$ M$_\odot$, and produce mildly recycled pulsars ($P_{\mathrm{spin}}\gtrsim50$ ms) with low-mass He WDs. Artificially circularized transfer gives $P_{\rm orb}\sim200$-$2000$ days, lasts $\sim10^7$ yr, and allows NSs to accrete $\sim0.1$ M$_\odot$, forming fully recycled MSPs ($P_{\mathrm{spin}}\sim$ few-30 ms) with CO WDs. Allowing super-Eddington accretion up to $100\times$ the canonical rate makes even eccentric systems efficient MSP producers, though torque coupling remains uncertain. Using an adaptive, field-dependent magnetic-field decay timescale, we find MSPs stay radio-active over Gyr spans. Gaia systems undergoing stable mass transfer remain wide and fail to match the Galactic MSP-WD population, where most, nearly circular systems have $P_{\rm orb}\lesssim100$ days. Binaries with different mass ratios and initial configurations -- likely leading to unstable mass transfer -- are needed to reproduce the observed MSP-WD distribution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Evolutionary Links: From Gaia Neutron Star Binaries to Pulsar White Dwarf Endpoints

The discovery of wide, eccentric Gaia neutron stars (NSs) in binaries with still evolving (likely main sequence) companions offers a new probe of mass transfer and pulsar recycling beyond the compact-binary regime. We model their origins and fates using population synthesis with POSYDON and detailed binary evolution with MESA, contrasting two limiting prescriptions at Roche-lobe overflow (RLOF): enforced circularization versus explicitly eccentric mass transfer. Our MESA setups include updated treatments of eccentric, non-conservative transfer, magnetic-braking torques for cool stars, and neutron-star spin evolution with accretion and dipole spindown. Under optimistic assumptions, isolated evolution yields Gaia-like systems at only <1.5% relative rates of NS-evolving companion binaries, yet absolute numbers remain consistent with detections for continuous star formation. Synthetic populations indicate that many canonical millisecond pulsar-white dwarf (WD) binaries arise from unstable mass transfer and common envelope recycling, whereas Gaia systems typically avoid common envelope and only undergo stable mass transfer. In the case of capping accretion onto the NS at the Eddington rate, circular RLOF keeps the donor's mass-loss rate hovering around the Eddington limit and sustained over long timescales. Eccentric mass transfer instead produces briefer bursty signatures where the donor's mass-loss rate can climb up to a thousand times higher than in the circular case. The eccentric channel then leaves wide, eccentric NS-helium WD binaries with only mild recycling, whereas the circular channel yields long-lived transfer, circular NS-WD binaries (helium or carbon-oxygen core), and fully recycled millisecond pulsars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

POSYDON Version 2: Population Synthesis with Detailed Binary-Evolution Simulations across a Cosmological Range of Metallicities

Whether considering rare astrophysical events on cosmological scales or unresolved stellar populations, accurate models must account for the integrated contribution from the entire history of star formation upon which that population is built. Here, we describe the second version of POSYDON, an open-source binary population synthesis code based on extensive grids of detailed binary evolution models computed using the MESA code, which follows both stars' structures as a binary system evolves through its complete evolution from the zero-age main sequence, through multiple phases of mass transfer and supernovae, to their death as compact objects. To generate synthetic binary populations, POSYDON uses advanced methods to interpolate between our large, densely spaced grids of simulated binaries. In our updated version of POSYDON, we account for the evolution of stellar binaries across a cosmological range of metallicities, extending from $10^{-4}$ $Z_{\odot}$ to 2 $Z_{\odot}$, including grids specifically focused on the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds (0.2 $Z_{\odot}$ and 0.45 $Z_{\odot}$). In addition to describing our model grids and detailing our methodology, we outline several improvements to POSYDON. These include the incorporation of single stars in stellar populations, a treatment for stellar mergers, and a careful modeling of "reverse-mass transferring" binaries in which a once-accreting star later becomes a donor star. Our simulations are focused on binaries with at least one high-mass component, such as those that host neutron stars and black holes, and we provide post-processing methods to account for the cosmological evolution of metallicity and star formation as well as rate calculations for transient events.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Mass-gap Black Holes in Coalescing Neutron Star Black Hole Binaries

The existence of a mass gap of $3-5\,M_{\odot}$ between the heaviest neutron stars (NSs) and the lightest black holes (BHs), inferred from the BH mass distribution in low mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs), has been suggested for decades. The recently reported gravitational-wave source GW230529 has been confidently identified as a NSBH merger, with the BH mass falling within this lower mass gap. This detection provides strong evidence against the existence of the latter and introduces new implications for the coalescing NSBH population, including a revised BH mass distribution and an updated local merger rate. In this study, we employ POSYDON, a binary population synthesis code that integrates detailed single- and binary-star models, to investigate coalescing NSBH binaries formed through isolated binary evolution. In particular, we focus on the BH mass distribution of the intrinsic NSBH merger population. We find that, with a high common-envelope efficiency of $α_{\rm{CE}} =2 $, the BH masses in NSBH mergers concentrate in the lower mass gap, aligning more closely with observations. However, after accounting for the constraints of the selection bias against mass-gap BHs in LMXBs, which suggests that the maximum NS birth mass is below $\simeq 2\,M_{\odot}$, we find that introducing a high $α_{\rm{CE}}$ is not required to match observations. Additionally, we explore the impact of core-collapse supernova kicks. Finally, we present the property distributions of observable NSBH mergers from our simulation and find that they match well with the observations. We find that the fraction of electromagnetic counterparts in observable populations is $\approx 4-30\%$, depending on different NS equations of state. Future detections of coalescing NSBH binaries would provide invaluable insights into SN mechanisms, common envelope evolution, and NS physics.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Challenges in Forming Millisecond Pulsar-Black Holes from Isolated Binaries

Binaries harboring a millisecond pulsar (MSP) and a black hole (BH) are a key observing target for current and upcoming pulsar surveys. We model the formation and evolution of such binaries in isolation at solar metallicity using the next-generation binary population synthesis code POSYDON. We examine neutron star (NS)-BH binaries where the NS forms first (labeled NSBH), as the NS must be able to spin-up to MSP rotation periods before the BH forms in these systems. We find that NSBHs are very rare and have a birth rate < 1 Myr$^{-1}$ for a Milky Way-like galaxy in our typical models. The NSBH birth rate is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than that for NS-BHs where the BH forms first (labeled BHNS). These rates are also sensitive to model assumptions about the supernova (SN) remnant masses, natal kicks, and common-envelope efficiency. We find that 100% of NSBHs undergo a mass ratio reversal before the first SN and up to 64% of NSBHs undergo a double common envelope phase after the mass ratio reversal occurs. Most importantly, no NSBH binaries in our populations undergo a mass transfer phase, either stable or unstable, after the first SN. This implies that there is no possibility of pulsar spin-up via accretion, and thus MSP-BH binaries cannot form. Thus, dynamical environments and processes may provide the only formation channels for such MSP-BH binaries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Irregularly Sampled Time Series Interpolation for Detailed Binary Evolution Simulations

Modeling of large populations of binary stellar systems is an intergral part of a many areas of astrophysics, from radio pulsars and supernovae to X-ray binaries, gamma-ray bursts, and gravitational-wave mergers. Binary population synthesis codes that employ self-consistently the most advanced physics treatment available for stellar interiors and their evolution and are at the same time computationally tractable have started to emerge only recently. One element that is still missing from these codes is the ability to generate the complete time evolution of binaries with arbitrary initial conditions using pre-computed three-dimensional grids of binary sequences. Here we present a highly interpretable method, from binary evolution track interpolation. Our method implements simulation generation from irregularly sampled time series. Our results indicate that this method is appropriate for applications within binary population synthesis and computational astrophysics with time-dependent simulations in general. Furthermore we point out and offer solutions to the difficulty surrounding evaluating performance of signals exhibiting extreme morphologies akin to discontinuities.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The Formation of Black Holes in Non-interacting, Isolated Binaries. Gaia Black Holes as Calibrators of Stellar Winds From Massive Stars

Context. The black holes discovered using Gaia, especially Gaia BH1 and BH2, have low mass companions of solar-like metallicity in wide orbits. For standard isolated binary evolution formation channels including interactions such an extreme mass ratio is unexpected; especially in orbits of hundreds to thousands of days. Aims. Here, we investigate a non-interacting formation path for isolated binaries to explain the formation of Gaia BH1 and BH2. Methods. We use single star models computed with MESA to constrain the main characteristics of possible progenitors of long-period black hole binaries like Gaia BH1 and BH2. Then, we incorporate these model grids into the binary population synthesis code POSYDON, to explore whether the formation of the observed binaries at solar metallicity is indeed possible. Results. We find that winds of massive stars ($\gtrsim 80\,M_\odot$), especially during the Wolf-Rayet phase, tend to cause a plateau in the initial stellar mass to final black hole mass relation (at about $13\,M_\odot$ in our default wind prescription). However, stellar winds at earlier evolutionary phases are also important at high metallicity, as they prevent the most massive stars from expanding ($<100\,R_\odot$) and filling their Roche lobe. Consequently, the strength of the applied winds affects the range of the final black hole masses in non-interacting binaries, making it possible to form systems similar to Gaia BH1 and BH2. Conclusions. We deduce that wide binaries with a black hole and a low mass companion can form at high metallicity without binary interactions. There could be hundreds of such systems in the Milky Way. The mass of the black hole in binaries evolved through the non-interacting channel can potentially provide insights into the wind strength during the progenitors evolution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Formation of Wind-Fed Black Hole High-mass X-ray Binaries: The Role of Roche-lobe-Overflow Post Black-Hole Formation

The three dynamically confirmed wind-fed black hole high-mass X-ray binaries (BH-HMXBs) are suggested to all contain a highly spinning black hole (BH). However, based on the theories of efficient angular momentum transport inside the stars, we expect that the first-born BHs in binary systems should have low spins, which is consistent with gravitational-wave observations. As a result, the origin of the high BH spins measured in wind-fed BH-HMXBs remains a mystery. In this paper, we conduct a binary population synthesis study on wind-fed BH-HMXBs at solar metallicity with the use of the newly developed code POSYDON, considering three scenarios for BH accretion: Eddington-limited, moderately super-Eddington, and fully conservative accretion. Taking into account the conditions for accretion-disk formation, we find that regardless of the accretion model, these systems are more likely to have already experienced a phase of Roche-lobe overflow after the BH formation. To account for the extreme BH spins, highly conservative accretion onto BHs is required, when assuming the accreted material carries the specific angular momentum at the innermost stable orbit. Besides, in our simulations we found that the systems with donor stars within the mass range of $10-20\,M_{\odot}$ are prevalent, posing a challenge in explaining simultaneously all observed properties of the BH-HMXB in our Galaxy, Cygnus X-1, and potentially hinting that the accretion efficiency onto non-degenerate stars, before the formation of the BH, is also more conservative than assumed in our simulations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

From ZAMS to Merger: Detailed Binary Evolution Models of Coalescing Neutron Star-Black Hole Systems at Solar Metallicity

Neutron star $-$ black hole (NSBH) merger events bring us new opportunities to constrain theories of stellar and binary evolution, and understand the nature of compact objects. In this work, we investigate the formation of merging NSBH binaries at solar metallicity by performing a binary population synthesis study of merging NSBH binaries with the newly developed code POSYDON. The latter incorporates extensive grids of detailed single and binary evolution models, covering the entire evolution of a double compact object progenitor. We explore the evolution of NSBHs originating from different formation channels, which in some cases differ from earlier studies performed with rapid binary population synthesis codes. Then, we present the population properties of merging NSBH systems and their progenitors such as component masses, orbital features, and BH spins, and investigate the model uncertainties in our treatment of common envelope (CE) evolution and core-collapse process. We find that at solar metallicity, under the default model assumptions, most of the merging NSBHs have BH masses in a range of $3-11\,M{_\odot}$ and chirp masses within $1.5-4\,M{_\odot}$. Independently of our model variations, the BH always forms first with dimensionless spin parameter $\lesssim 0.2$, which is correlated to the initial binary orbital period. Some BHs can subsequently spin up moderately ($χ_{\rm BH} \lesssim 0.4$) due to mass transfer, which we assume to be Eddington limited. Binaries that experienced CE evolution rarely demonstrate large tilt angles. Conversely, approximately $40\%$ of the binaries that undergo only stable mass transfer without CE evolution contain an anti-aligned BH. Finally, accounting for uncertainties in both the population modeling and the NS equation of state, we find that $0-18.6\%$ of NSBH mergers may be accompanied by an electromagnetic counterpart.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Investigating the Lower Mass Gap with Low Mass X-ray Binary Population Synthesis

Mass measurements from low-mass black hole X-ray binaries (LMXBs) and radio pulsars have been used to identify a gap between the most massive neutron stars (NSs) and the least massive black holes (BHs). BH mass measurements in LMXBs are typically only possible for transient systems: outburst periods enable detection via all-sky X-ray monitors, while quiescent periods enable radial-velocity measurements of the low-mass donor. We quantitatively study selection biases due to the requirement of transient behavior for BH mass measurements. Using rapid population synthesis simulations (COSMIC), detailed binary stellar-evolution models (MESA), and the disk instability model of transient behavior, we demonstrate that transient-LMXB selection effects introduce observational biases, and can suppress mass-gap BHs in the observed sample. However, we find a population of transient LMXBs with mass-gap BHs form through accretion-induced collapse of a NS during the LMXB phase, which is inconsistent with observations. These results are robust against variations of binary evolution prescriptions. The significance of this accretion-induced collapse population depends upon the maximum NS birth mass $M_\mathrm{ NS, birth-max}$. To reflect the observed dearth of low-mass BHs, COSMIC and MESA models favor $M_\mathrm{ NS, birth-max} \lesssim2M_{\odot}$. In the absence of further observational biases against LMXBs with mass-gap BHs, our results indicate the need for additional physics connected to the modeling of LMXB formation and evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

A Black Hole Kicked At Birth: MAXI J1305-704

When a compact object is formed in a binary, any mass lost during core collapse will impart a kick on the binary's center of mass. Asymmetries in this mass loss or neutrino emission would impart an additional natal kick on the remnant black hole or neutron star, whether it was formed in a binary or in isolation. While it is well established that neutron stars receive natal kicks upon formation, it is unclear whether black holes do as well. Here, we consider the low-mass X-ray binary MAXI J1305-704, which has been reported to have a space velocity $\gtrsim$ 200 km/s. In addition to integrating its trajectory to infer its velocity upon formation of its black hole, we account for recent estimates of its period, black hole mass, mass ratio, and donor effective temperature from photometric and spectroscopic observations. We find that if MAXI J1305-704 formed via isolated binary evolution in the thick Galactic disk, then the supernova that formed its black hole imparted a natal kick of at least 70 km/s while ejecting less than $\simeq 1$ M$_\odot$ with 95% confidence assuming uninformative priors on mass loss and natal kick velocity.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

X-ray luminosity function of high-mass X-ray binaries: Studying the signatures of different physical processes using detailed binary evolution calculations

The ever-expanding observational sample of X-ray binaries (XRBs) makes them excellent laboratories for constraining binary evolution theory. Such constraints can be obtained by studying the effects of various physical assumptions on synthetic X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) and comparing to observed XLFs. In this work, we focus on high-mass XRBs (HMXBs) and study the effects on the XLF of various, poorly-constrained assumptions regarding physical processes such as the common-envelope phase, the core-collapse, and wind-fed accretion. We use the new binary population synthesis code POSYDON, which employs extensive pre-computed grids of detailed stellar structure and binary evolution models, to simulate the evolution of binaries. We generate 96 synthetic XRB populations corresponding to different combinations of model assumptions. The generated HMXB XLFs are feature-rich, deviating from the commonly assumed single-power law. We find a break in our synthetic XLF at luminosity $\sim 10^{38}$ erg s$^{-1}$, similar to observed XLFs. However, we find also a general overabundance of XRBs (up to a factor of $\sim$10 for certain model parameter combinations) driven primarily by XRBs with black hole accretors. Assumptions about the transient behavior of Be-XRBs, asymmetric supernova kicks, and common-envelope physics can significantly affect the shape and normalization of our synthetic XLFs. We find that less well-studied assumptions regarding the circularization of the orbit at the onset of Roche-lobe overflow and criteria for the formation of an X-ray emitting accretion disk around wind-accreting black holes can also impact our synthetic XLFs. Our study reveals the importance of large-scale parameter studies, highlighting the power of XRBs in constraining binary evolution theory.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

The formation of $30\,M_\odot$ merging black holes at solar metallicity

The maximum mass of black holes formed in isolated binaries is determined by stellar winds and the interactions between the binary components. We consider for the first time fully self-consistent detailed stellar structure and binary evolution calculations in population-synthesis models and a new, qualitatively different picture emerges for the formation of black-hole binaries, compared to studies employing rapid population synthesis models. We find merging binary black holes can form with a non-negligible rate ($\sim 4\times10^{-7}\,M_\odot^{-1}$) at solar metallicity. Their progenitor stars with initial masses $\gtrsim 50\,M_\odot$ do not expand to supergiant radii, mostly avoiding significant dust-driven or luminous blue variable winds. Overall, the progenitor stars lose less mass in stellar winds, resulting in black holes as massive as $\sim 30\,M_\odot$, and, approximately half of them avoid a mass-transfer episode before forming the first-born black hole. Finally, binaries with initial periods of a few days, some of which may undergo episodes of Roche-lobe overflow mass transfer, result in mildly spinning first-born black holes, $χ_\mathrm{BH1} \lesssim 0.2$, assuming efficient angular-momentum transport.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

POSYDON: A General-Purpose Population Synthesis Code with Detailed Binary-Evolution Simulations

Most massive stars are members of a binary or a higher-order stellar systems, where the presence of a binary companion can decisively alter their evolution via binary interactions. Interacting binaries are also important astrophysical laboratories for the study of compact objects. Binary population synthesis studies have been used extensively over the last two decades to interpret observations of compact-object binaries and to decipher the physical processes that lead to their formation. Here, we present POSYDON, a novel, binary population synthesis code that incorporates full stellar-structure and binary-evolution modeling, using the MESA code, throughout the whole evolution of the binaries. The use of POSYDON enables the self-consistent treatment of physical processes in stellar and binary evolution, including: realistic mass-transfer calculations and assessment of stability, internal angular-momentum transport and tides, stellar core sizes, mass-transfer rates and orbital periods. This paper describes the detailed methodology and implementation of POSYDON, including the assumed physics of stellar- and binary-evolution, the extensive grids of detailed single- and binary-star models, the post-processing, classification and interpolation methods we developed for use with the grids, and the treatment of evolutionary phases that are not based on pre-calculated grids. The first version of POSYDON targets binaries with massive primary stars (potential progenitors of neutron stars or black holes) at solar metallicity.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Predicting Winners of the Reality TV Dating Show $\textit{The Bachelor}$ Using Machine Learning Algorithms

$\textit{The Bachelor}$ is a reality TV dating show in which a single bachelor selects his wife from a pool of approximately 30 female contestants over eight weeks of filming (American Broadcasting Company 2002). We collected the following data on all 422 contestants that participated in seasons 11 through 25: their Age, Hometown, Career, Race, Week they got their first 1-on-1 date, whether they got the first impression rose, and what "place" they ended up getting. We then trained three machine learning models to predict the ideal characteristics of a successful contestant on $\textit{The Bachelor}$. The three algorithms that we tested were: random forest classification, neural networks, and linear regression. We found consistency across all three models, although the neural network performed the best overall. Our models found that a woman has the highest probability of progressing far on $\textit{The Bachelor}$ if she is: 26 years old, white, from the Northwest, works as an dancer, received a 1-on-1 in week 6, and did not receive the First Impression Rose. Our methodology is broadly applicable to all romantic reality television, and our results will inform future $\textit{The Bachelor}$ production and contestant strategies. While our models were relatively successful, we still encountered high misclassification rates. This may be because: (1) Our training dataset had fewer than 400 points or (2) Our models were too simple to parameterize the complex romantic connections contestants forge over the course of a season.

cs.LG↗