arXiv subjects

Kylee Carden

Publications and source records attributed to Kylee Carden.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Technique-agnostic exoplanet demography for the Roman era -- I. Testing a demography retrieval framework using simulated Kepler-like transit datasets

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples distributed over Galactic distance scales to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

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arXiv2025

Updated Masses for the Gas Giants in the Eight-Planet Kepler-90 System Via Transit-Timing Variation and Radial Velocity Observations

The eight-planet Kepler-90 system exhibits the greatest multiplicity of planets found to date. All eight planets are transiting and were discovered in photometry from the NASA Kepler primary mission. The two outermost planets, g ($P_g$ = 211 d) and h ($P_h$ = 332 d) exhibit significant transit-timing variations (TTVs), but were only observed 6 and 3 times respectively by Kepler. These TTVs allow for the determination of planetary masses through dynamical modeling of the pair's gravitational interactions, but the paucity of transits allows a broad range of solutions for the masses and orbital ephemerides. To determine accurate masses and orbital parameters for planets g and h, we combined 34 radial velocities (RVs) of Kepler-90, collected over a decade, with the Kepler transit data. We jointly modeled the transit times of the outer two planets and the RV time series, then used our two-planet model to predict their future times of transit. These predictions led us to recover a transit of Kepler-90 g with ground-based observatories in May 2024. We then combined the 2024 transit and several previously unpublished transit times of planets g and h with the Kepler photometry and RV data to update the masses and linear ephemerides of the planets, finding masses for g and h of $15.0 \pm 1.3\, M_\oplus$, and $203 \pm 16\, M_\oplus$ respectively from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. These results enable further insights into the architecturally rich Kepler-90 system and pave the way for atmospheric characterization with space-based facilities.

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arXiv2025

A Short History of (Orbital) Decay: Roman's Prospects for Detecting Dying Planets

The Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS) is expected to detect ~$10^5$ transiting planets. Many of these planets will have short orbital periods and are thus susceptible to tidal decay. We use a catalog of simulated transiting planet detections to predict the yield of orbital decay detections in the Roman GBTDS. Assuming a constant stellar tidal dissipation factor, $Q^{'}_{*}$, of $10^6$, we predict ~ 5 - 10 detections. We additionally consider an empirical period-dependent parameterization of $Q^{'}_{*} \propto P^{-3}$ and find a substantially suppressed yield. We conclude that Roman will provide constraints on the rate of planet engulfment in the Galaxy and probe the physics of tidal dissipation in stars.

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arXiv2025

ExoMiner++: Enhanced Transit Classification and a New Vetting Catalog for 2-Minute TESS Data

We present ExoMiner++, an enhanced deep learning model that builds on the success of ExoMiner to improve transit signal classification in 2-minute TESS data. ExoMiner++ incorporates additional diagnostic inputs, including periodogram, flux trend, difference image, unfolded flux, and spacecraft attitude control data, all of which are crucial for effectively distinguishing transit signals from more challenging sources of false positives. To further enhance performance, we leverage multi-source training by combining high-quality labeled data from the Kepler space telescope with TESS data. This approach mitigates the impact of TESS's noisier and more ambiguous labels. ExoMiner++ achieves high accuracy across various classification and ranking metrics, significantly narrowing the search space for follow-up investigations to confirm new planets. To serve the exoplanet community, we introduce new TESS catalog containing ExoMiner++ classifications and confidence scores for each transit signal. Among the 147,568 unlabeled TCEs, ExoMiner++ identifies 7,330 as planet candidates, with the remainder classified as false positives. These 7,330 planet candidates correspond to 1,868 existing TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), 69 Community TESS Objects of Interest (CTOIs), and 50 newly introduced CTOIs. 1,797 out of the 2,506 TOIs previously labeled as planet candidates in ExoFOP are classified as planet candidates by ExoMiner++. This reduction in plausible candidates combined with the excellent ranking quality of ExoMiner++ allows the follow-up efforts to be focused on the most likely candidates, increasing the overall planet yield.

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arXiv2025

Confirmation of four hot Jupiters detected by TESS using follow-up spectroscopy from MaHPS at Wendelstein together with NEID and TRES

We report the confirmation and characterization of four hot Jupiter-type exoplanets initially detected by TESS: TOI-1295 b, TOI-2580 b, TOI-6016 b, and TOI-6130 b. Using observations with the high-resolution echelle spectrograph MaHPS on the 2.1m telescope at Wendelstein Observatory, together with NEID at Kitt Peak National Observatory and TRES at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory, we confirmed the planetary nature of these four planet candidates. We also performed precise mass measurements. All four planets are found to be hot Jupiters with orbital periods between 2.4 and 4.0 days. The sizes of these planets range from 1.29 to 1.64 Jupiter radii, while their masses range from 0.6 to 1.5 Jupiter masses. Additionally, we investigated whether there are signs of other planets in the systems but have found none. Lastly, we compared the radii of our four objects to the results of an empirical study of radius inflation and see that all four demonstrate a good fit with the current models. These four planets belong to the first array of planets confirmed with MaHPS data, supporting the ability of the spectrograph to detect planets around fainter stars as faint as V=12.

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