arXiv subjects

Kyohei Okumura

Publications and source records attributed to Kyohei Okumura.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Robust Learning with Private Information

Firms increasingly delegate decisions to learning algorithms in platform markets. Standard algorithms perform well when platform policies are stationary, but firms often face ambiguity about whether policies are stationary or adapt strategically to their behavior. When policies adapt, efficient learning under stationarity may backfire: it may reveal a firm's persistent private information, allowing the platform to personalize terms and extract information rents. We study a repeated screening problem in which an agent with a fixed private type commits ex ante to a learning algorithm, facing ambiguity about the principal's policy. We show that a broad class of standard algorithms, including all no-external-regret algorithms, can be manipulated by adaptive principals and permit asymptotic full surplus extraction. We then construct a misspecification-robust learning algorithm that treats stationarity as a testable hypothesis. It achieves the optimal payoff under stationarity at the minimax-optimal rate, while preventing dynamic rent extraction: against any adaptive principal, each type's long-run utility is at least its utility under the menu that maximizes revenue under the principal's prior.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Evaluating the Efficiency of Regulation in Matching Markets with Distributional Disparities

Cap-based regulations are widely used to address distributional disparities in matching markets, but their efficiency relative to alternative instruments such as subsidies remains poorly understood. This paper develops a framework for evaluating policy interventions by incorporating regional constraints into a transferable utility matching model. We show that a policymaker with aggregate-level match data can implement a taxation policy that maximizes social welfare and outperforms any cap-based policy. Using newly collected data from the Japan Residency Matching Program, we estimate participant preferences and simulate counterfactual match outcomes under both cap-based and subsidy-based policies. The results reveal that the status quo cap-based regulation generates substantial efficiency losses, whereas small, targeted subsidies can achieve similar distributional goals with significantly higher social welfare.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive Experimental Design for Policy Learning

This study investigates the contextual best arm identification (BAI) problem, aiming to design an adaptive experiment to identify the best treatment arm conditioned on contextual information (covariates). We consider a decision-maker who assigns treatment arms to experimental units during an experiment and recommends the estimated best treatment arm based on the contexts at the end of the experiment. The decision-maker uses a policy for recommendations, which is a function that provides the estimated best treatment arm given the contexts. In our evaluation, we focus on the worst-case expected regret, a relative measure between the expected outcomes of an optimal policy and our proposed policy. We derive a lower bound for the expected simple regret and then propose a strategy called Adaptive Sampling-Policy Learning (PLAS). We prove that this strategy is minimax rate-optimal in the sense that its leading factor in the regret upper bound matches the lower bound as the number of experimental units increases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Testing the Fairness-Accuracy Improvability of Algorithms

Many organizations use algorithms that have a disparate impact, i.e., the benefits or harms of the algorithm fall disproportionately on certain social groups. Addressing an algorithm's disparate impact can be challenging, however, because it is often unclear whether it is possible to reduce this impact without sacrificing other objectives of the organization, such as accuracy or profit. Establishing the improvability of algorithms with respect to multiple criteria is of both conceptual and practical interest: in many settings, disparate impact that would otherwise be prohibited under US federal law is permissible if it is necessary to achieve a legitimate business interest. The question is how a policy-maker can formally substantiate, or refute, this "necessity" defense. In this paper, we provide an econometric framework for testing the hypothesis that it is possible to improve on the fairness of an algorithm without compromising on other pre-specified objectives. Our proposed test is simple to implement and can be applied under any exogenous constraint on the algorithm space. We establish the large-sample validity and consistency of our test, and microfound the test's robustness to manipulation based on a game between a policymaker and the analyst. Finally, we apply our approach to evaluate a healthcare algorithm originally considered by Obermeyer et al. (2019), and quantify the extent to which the algorithm's disparate impact can be reduced without compromising the accuracy of its predictions.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Algorithm Design: A Fairness-Accuracy Frontier

Algorithm designers increasingly optimize not only for accuracy, but also for the fairness of the algorithm across pre-defined groups. We study the tradeoff between fairness and accuracy for any given set of inputs to the algorithm. We propose and characterize a fairness-accuracy frontier, which consists of the optimal points across a broad range of preferences over fairness and accuracy. Our results identify a simple property of the inputs, group-balance, which qualitatively determines the shape of the frontier. We further study an information-design problem where the designer flexibly regulates the inputs (e.g., by coarsening an input or banning its use) but the algorithm is chosen by another agent. Whether it is optimal to ban an input generally depends on the designer's preferences. But when inputs are group-balanced, then excluding group identity is strictly suboptimal for all designers, and when the designer has access to group identity, then it is strictly suboptimal to exclude any informative input.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2022

Counterfactual Learning with General Data-generating Policies

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) attempts to predict the performance of counterfactual policies using log data from a different policy. We extend its applicability by developing an OPE method for a class of both full support and deficient support logging policies in contextual-bandit settings. This class includes deterministic bandit (such as Upper Confidence Bound) as well as deterministic decision-making based on supervised and unsupervised learning. We prove that our method's prediction converges in probability to the true performance of a counterfactual policy as the sample size increases. We validate our method with experiments on partly and entirely deterministic logging policies. Finally, we apply it to evaluate coupon targeting policies by a major online platform and show how to improve the existing policy.

cs.LG↗