arXiv subjects

Léo Simpson

Publications and source records attributed to Léo Simpson.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Gray-Box Optimization using Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty

This paper considers sequential gray-box optimization where the objective function is given as the composition of a loss function and a parametric model. Crucially, the parameters of the model are unknown and need to be iteratively estimated from noisy observations of the model outputs. This problem setup generalizes the parametric black-box optimization problem known as (contextual) stochastic linear bandit. To address the sequential gray-box optimization problem, we propose a structure-exploiting method that leverages known problem structure given in terms of the loss function and an a priori set of admissible parameters. The method is based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty and trades off exploration and exploitation by minimizing a lower confidence bound on the true objective function. We provide a detailed regret analysis of the novel method, improving on state-of-the-art results for the special case of linear stochastic bandits due to the use of a recently published bound for the parameter confidence sets arising in multi-output linear least-squares estimation. Numerical examples illustrate the superior performance of structure-exploiting methods compared to structure-agnostic approaches.

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arXiv2026

Finite-sample bounds for multi-output system identification

This paper presents uniform-in-time finite-sample bounds for regularized linear regression with vector-valued outputs and conditionally zero-mean subgaussian noise. By revisiting classical self-normalized martingale arguments, we obtain bounds that apply directly to multi-output regression, unlike most of the prior work. Compared to the state of the art, the new results are more general and yield tighter bounds, even for scalar-valued outputs. The mild assumptions we use allow for unknown dependencies between regressors and past noise terms, typically induced by system dynamics or feedback mechanisms. Therefore, these novel finite-sample bounds can be applied to many affine-in-parameter system identification problems, including the identification of a linear time-invariant system from full-state measurements. These new results may lead to significant improvements in stochastic learning-based controllers for safety-critical applications.

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arXiv2025

Identification of a Kalman filter: consistency of local solutions

Prediction error and maximum likelihood methods are powerful tools for identifying linear dynamical systems and, in particular, enable the joint estimation of model parameters and the Kalman filter used for state estimation. A key limitation, however, is that these methods require solving a generally non-convex optimization problem to global optimality. This paper analyzes the statistical behavior of local minimizers in the special case where only the Kalman gain is estimated. We prove that these local solutions are statistically consistent estimates of the true Kalman gain. This follows from asymptotic unimodality: as the dataset grows, the objective function converges to a limit with a unique local (and therefore global) minimizer. We further provide guidelines for designing the optimization problem for Kalman filter tuning and discuss extensions to the joint estimation of additional linear parameters and noise covariances. Finally, the theoretical results are illustrated using three examples of increasing complexity. The main practical takeaway of this paper is that difficulties caused by local minimizers in system identification are, at least, not attributable to the tuning of the Kalman gain.

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arXiv2024

Parallelizable Parametric Nonlinear System Identification via tuning of a Moving Horizon State Estimator

This paper introduces a novel optimization-based approach for parametric nonlinear system identification. Building upon the prediction error method framework, traditionally used for linear system identification, we extend its capabilities to nonlinear systems. The predictions are computed using a moving horizon state estimator with a constant arrival cost. Eventually, both the system parameters and the arrival cost are estimated by minimizing the sum of the squared prediction errors. Since the predictions are induced by the state estimator, the method can be viewed as the tuning of a state estimator, based on its predictive capacities. The present extension of the prediction error method not only enhances performance for nonlinear systems but also enables learning from multiple trajectories with unknown initial states, broadening its applicability in practical scenarios. Additionally, the novel formulation leaves room for the design of efficient and parallelizable optimization algorithms, since each output prediction only depends on a fixed window of past actions and measurements. In the special case of linear time-invariant systems, we show an important property of the proposed method which suggests asymptotic consistency under reasonable assumptions. Numerical examples illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the approach, and one of the examples also highlights the necessity for the arrival cost.

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arXiv2024

A Learning-based Model Predictive Control Scheme with Application to Temperature Control Units

Temperature control is a complex task due to its often unknown dynamics and disturbances. This paper explores the use of Neural Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous (NNARX) models for nonlinear system identification and model predictive control of a temperature control unit. First, the NNARX model is identified from input-output data collected from the real plant, and a state-space representation with known measurable states consisting of past input and output variables is formulated. Second, a tailored model predictive controller is designed based on the trained NNARX network. The proposed control architecture is experimentally tested on the temperature control units manufactured by Tool-Temp AG. The results achieved are compared with those obtained using a PI controller and a linear MPC. The findings illustrate that the proposed scheme achieves satisfactory tracking performance while incurring the lowest energy cost among the compared controllers.

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arXiv2023

Direct Collocation for Numerical Optimal Control of Second-Order ODE

Mechanical systems are usually modeled by second-order Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) which take the form $\ddot{q} = f(t, q, \dot{q})$. While simulation methods tailored to these equations have been studied, using them in direct optimal control methods is rare. Indeed, the standard approach is to perform a state augmentation, adding the velocities to the state. The main drawback of this approach is that the number of decision variables is doubled, which could harm the performance of the resulting optimization problem. In this paper, we present an approach tailored to second-order ODE. We compare it with the standard one, both on theoretical aspects and in a numerical example. Notably, we show that the tailored formulation is likely to improve the performance of a direct collocation method, for solving optimal control problems with second-order ODE of the more restrictive form $\ddot{q} = f(t, q)$.

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arXiv2023

An Efficient Method for the Joint Estimation of System Parameters and Noise Covariances for Linear Time-Variant Systems

We present an optimization-based method for the joint estimation of system parameters and noise covariances of linear time-variant systems. Given measured data, this method maximizes the likelihood of the parameters. We solve the optimization problem of interest via a novel structure-exploiting solver. We present the advantages of the proposed approach over commonly used methods in the framework of Moving Horizon Estimation. Finally, we show the performance of the method through numerical simulations on a realistic example of a thermal system. In this example, the method can successfully estimate the model parameters in a short computational time.

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arXiv2020

c-lasso -- a Python package for constrained sparse and robust regression and classification

We introduce c-lasso, a Python package that enables sparse and robust linear regression and classification with linear equality constraints. The underlying statistical forward model is assumed to be of the following form: \[ y = X β+ σε\qquad \textrm{subject to} \qquad Cβ=0 \] Here, $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$is a given design matrix and the vector $y \in \mathbb{R}^{n}$ is a continuous or binary response vector. The matrix $C$ is a general constraint matrix. The vector $β\in \mathbb{R}^{d}$ contains the unknown coefficients and $σ$ an unknown scale. Prominent use cases are (sparse) log-contrast regression with compositional data $X$, requiring the constraint $1_d^T β= 0$ (Aitchion and Bacon-Shone 1984) and the Generalized Lasso which is a special case of the described problem (see, e.g, (James, Paulson, and Rusmevichientong 2020), Example 3). The c-lasso package provides estimators for inferring unknown coefficients and scale (i.e., perspective M-estimators (Combettes and Müller 2020a)) of the form \[ \min_{β\in \mathbb{R}^d, σ\in \mathbb{R}_{0}} f\left(Xβ- y,σ \right) + λ\left\lVert β\right\rVert_1 \qquad \textrm{subject to} \qquad Cβ= 0 \] for several convex loss functions $f(\cdot,\cdot)$. This includes the constrained Lasso, the constrained scaled Lasso, and sparse Huber M-estimators with linear equality constraints.

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