arXiv subjects

L. A. Braunstein

Publications and source records attributed to L. A. Braunstein.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Epidemic control in networks with cliques

Social units, such as households and schools, can play an important role in controlling epidemic outbreaks. In this work, we study an epidemic model with a prompt quarantine measure on networks with cliques (a $clique$ is a fully connected subgraph representing a social unit). According to this strategy, newly infected individuals are detected and quarantined (along with their close contacts) with probability $f$. Numerical simulations reveal that epidemic outbreaks in networks with cliques are abruptly suppressed at a transition point $f_c$. However, small outbreaks show features of a second-order phase transition around $f_c$. Therefore, our model can exhibit properties of both discontinuous and continuous phase transitions. Next, we show analytically that the probability of small outbreaks goes continuously to 1 at $f_c$ in the thermodynamic limit. Finally, we find that our model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Cascading failures in isotropic and anisotropic spatial networks induced by localized attacks and overloads

In this paper we study the Motter-Lai model of cascading failures induced by overloads in both isotropic and anisotropic spatial networks, generated by placing nodes in a square lattice and using various distributions of link lengths and angles. Anisotropy has not been earlier considered in the Motter-Lai model and is a real feature that may affect the cascading failures. This could reflect the existence of a preferred direction in which a given attribute of the system manifests, such as power lines that follow a city built parallel to the coast. We show that the anisotropy causes a greater spread of damage along the preferential direction of links. We also identify the critical linear size, $l_c$, for a square shaped localized attack, which satisfies with high probability that above $l_c$ the cascading disrupts the giant component of functional nodes, while below $l_c$ the damage does not spread. We find that, for networks with any characteristic link length, their robustness decreases with the strength of the anisotropy. We show that the value of $l_c$ is finite and independent of the system size (for large systems), both for isotropic and anisotropic networks. Thus, in contrast to random attacks, where the critical fraction of nodes that survive the initial attack, $p_c$, is usually below 1, here $p_c = 1$. Note that the analogy to $p_c = 1$ is also found for localized attacks in interdependent spatial networks. Finally, we measure the final distribution of functional cluster sizes and find a power-law behavior, with exponents similar to regular percolation. This indicates that, after the cascade which destroys the giant component, the system is at a percolation critical point. Additionally, we observe a crossover in the value of the distribution exponent, from critical percolation in a two-dimensional lattice for strong spatial embedding, to mean-field percolation for weak embedding.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Emergent networks in fractional percolation

Real networks are vulnerable to random failures and malicious attacks. However, when a node is harmed or damaged, it may remain partially functional, which helps to maintain the overall network structure and functionality. In this paper, we study the network structure for a fractional percolation process [Shang, Phys. Rev. E 89, 012813 (2014)], in which the state of a node can be either fully functional (FF), partially functional (PF), or dysfunctional (D). We develop new equations to calculate the relative size of the percolating cluster of FF and PF nodes, that are in agreement with our stochastic simulations. In addition, we find a regime in which the percolating cluster can be described as a coarse-grained bipartite network, namely, as a set of finite groups of FF nodes connected by PF nodes. Moreover, these groups behave as a set of "supernodes" with a power-law degree distribution. Finally, we show how this emergent structure explains the values of several critical exponents around the percolation threshold.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Disease spreading with social distancing: A prevention strategy in disordered multiplex networks

The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and strategies to prevent or mitigate their effects in populations. Since isolated systems are exceptionally rare to find in any context, especially in human contact networks, here we examine the susceptible-infected-recovered model of disease spreading in a multiplex network formed by two distinct networks or layers, interconnected through a fraction $q$ of shared individuals (overlap). We model the interactions through weighted networks, because person-to-person interactions are diverse (or disordered); weights represent the contact times of the interactions. Using branching theory supported by simulations, we analyze a social distancing strategy that reduces the average contact time in both layers, where the intensity of the distancing is related to the topology of the layers. We find that the critical values of the distancing intensities, above which an epidemic can be prevented, increase with the overlap $q$. Also we study the effect of the social distancing on the mutual giant component of susceptible individuals, which is crucial to keep the functionality of the system. In addition, we find that for relatively small values of the overlap $q$, social distancing policies might not be needed at all to maintain the functionality of the system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Reversible bootstrap percolation: Fake news and fact checking

Bootstrap percolation has been used to describe opinion formation in society and other social and natural phenomena. The formal equation of the bootstrap percolation may have more than one solution, corresponding to several stable fixed points of the corresponding iteration process. We construct a reversible bootstrap percolation process, which converges to these extra solutions displaying a hysteresis typical of discontinuous phase transitions. This process provides a reasonable model for fake news spreading and the effectiveness of fact checking. We show that sometimes it is not sufficient to discard all the sources of fake news in order to reverse the belief of a population that formed under the influence of these sources.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Epidemic spreading on modular networks: The fear to declare a pandemic

In the past few decades, the frequency of pandemics has been increased due to the growth of urbanization and mobility among countries. Since a disease spreading in one country could become a pandemic with a potential worldwide humanitarian and economic impact, it is important to develop models to estimate the probability of a worldwide pandemic. In this paper, we propose a model of disease spreading in a structural modular complex network (having communities) and study how the number of bridge nodes $n$ that connect communities affects disease spread. We find that our model can be described at a global scale as an infectious transmission process between communities with global infectious and recovery time distributions that depend on the internal structure of each community and $n$. We find that near the critical point as $n$ increases, the disease reaches most of the communities, but each community has only a small fraction of recovered nodes. In addition, we obtain that in the limit $n \to \infty$, the probability of a pandemic increases abruptly at the critical point. This scenario could make the decision on whether to launch a pandemic alert or not more difficult. Finally, we show that link percolation theory can be used at a global scale to estimate the probability of a pandemic since the global transmissibility between communities has a weak dependence on the global recovery time.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Insights into bootstrap percolation: Its equivalence with k-core percolation and the giant component

K-core and bootstrap percolation are widely studied models that have been used to represent and understand diverse deactivation and activation processes in natural and social systems. Since these models are considerably similar, it has been suggested in recent years that they could be complementary. In this manuscript we provide a rigorous analysis that shows that for any degree and threshold distributions heterogeneous bootstrap percolation can be mapped into heterogeneous k-core percolation and vice versa, if the functionality thresholds in both processes satisfy a complementary relation. Another interesting problem in bootstrap and k-core percolation is the fraction of nodes belonging to their giant connected components $P_{\infty b}$ and $P_{\infty c}$, respectively. We solve this problem analytically for arbitrary randomly connected graphs and arbitrary threshold distributions, and we show that $P_{\infty b}$ and $P_{\infty c}$ are not complementary. Our theoretical results coincide with computer simulations in the limit of very large graphs. In bootstrap percolation, we show that when using the branching theory to compute the size of the giant component, we must consider two different types of links, which are related to distinct spanning branches of active nodes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Dynamic vaccination in partially overlapped multiplex network

In this work we propose and investigate a new strategy of vaccination, which we call "dynamic vaccination". In our model, susceptible people become aware that one or more of their contacts are infected, and thereby get vaccinated with probability $ω$, before having physical contact with any infected patient. Then, the non-vaccinated individuals will be infected with probability $β$. We apply the strategy to the SIR epidemic model in a multiplex network composed by two networks, where a fraction $q$ of the nodes acts in both networks. We map this model of dynamic vaccination into bond percolation model, and use the generating functions framework to predict theoretically the behavior of the relevant magnitudes of the system at the steady state. We find a perfect agreement between the solutions of the theoretical equations and the results of stochastic simulations. In addition, we find an interesting phase diagram in the plane $β-ω$, which is composed by an epidemic and a non-epidemic phases, separated by a critical threshold line $β_c$, which depends on $q$. Wefind that, for all values of $q$, a region in the diagram where the vaccination is so efficient that, regardless of the virulence of the disease, it never becomes an epidemic. We compare our strategy with random immunization and find that using the same amount of vaccines for both scenarios, we obtain that the spread of the disease is much lower in the case of dynamic vaccination when compared to random immunization. Furthermore, we also compare our strategy with targeted immunization and we find that, depending on $ω$, dynamic vaccination will perform significantly better, and in some cases will stop the disease before it becomes an epidemic.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Multiple outbreaks in epidemic spreading with local vaccination and limited vaccines

How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider that medical institutes may have limited vaccine resources available. In this manuscript, we explore the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with local dynamic vaccination, and considering limited vaccines. In this model, susceptibles in contact with an infected individual, are vaccinated -with probability $ω$- and then get infected -with probability $β$. However, when the fraction of immunized individuals reaches a threshold $V_L$, the vaccination stops, after which only the infection is possible. In the steady state, besides the critical points $β_c$ and $ω_c$ that separate a non-epidemic from an epidemic phase, we find for a range of $V_L$ another transition points, $β^*>β_c$ and $ω^*<ω_c$, which correspond to a novel discontinuous phase transition. This critical value separates a phase where the amount of vaccines is sufficient, from a phase where the disease is strong enough to exhaust all the vaccination units. For a disease with fixed $β$, the vaccination probability $ω$ can be controlled in order to drastically reduce the number of infected individuals, using efficiently the available vaccines. Furthermore, the temporal evolution of the system close to $β^*$ or $ω^*$, shows that after a peak of infection the system enters into a quasi-stationary state, with only a few infected cases. But if there are no more vaccines, these few infected individuals could originate a second outbreak, represented by a second peak of infection. This state of apparent calm, could be dangerous since it may lead to misleading conclusions and to an abandon of the strategies to control the disease.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Cascading Failures in Interdependent Networks with Multiple Supply-Demand Links and Functionality Thresholds

Various social, financial, biological and technological systems can be modeled by interdependent networks. It has been assumed that in order to remain functional, nodes in one network must receive the support from nodes belonging to different networks. So far these models have been limited to the case in which the failure propagates across networks only if the nodes lose all their supply nodes. In this paper we develop a more realistic model for two interdependent networks in which each node has its own supply threshold, i.e., they need the support of a minimum number of supply nodes to remain functional. In addition, we analyze different conditions of internal node failure due to disconnection from nodes within its own network. We show that several local internal failure conditions lead to similar nontrivial results. When there are no internal failures the model is equivalent to a bipartite system, which can be useful to model a financial market. We explore the rich behaviors of these models that include discontinuous and continuous phase transitions. Using the generating functions formalism, we analytically solve all the models in the limit of infinitely large networks and find an excellent agreement with the stochastic simulations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Epidemic spreading in multiplex networks influenced by opinion exchanges on vaccination

We study the changes of opinions about vaccination together with the evolution of a disease. In our model we consider a multiplex network consisting of two layers. One of the layers corresponds to a social network where people share their opinions and influence others opinions. The social model that rules the dynamic is the M-model, which takes into account two different processes that occurs in a society: persuasion and compromise. This two processes are related through a parameter $r$, $r<1$ describes a moderate and committed society, for $r>1$ the society tends to have extremist opinions, while $r=1$ represents a neutral society. This social network may be of real or virtual contacts. On the other hand, the second layer corresponds to a network of physical contacts where the disease spreading is described by the SIR-Model. In this model the individuals may be in one of the following four states: Susceptible ($S$), Infected($I$), Recovered ($R$) or Vaccinated ($V$). A Susceptible individual can: i) get vaccinated, if his opinion in the other layer is totally in favor of the vaccine, ii) get infected, with probability $β$ if he is in contact with an infected neighbor. Those $I$ individuals recover after a certain period $t_r=6$. Vaccinated individuals have an extremist positive opinion that does not change. We consider that the vaccine has a certain effectiveness $ω$ and as a consequence vaccinated nodes can be infected with probability $β(1 - ω)$ if they are in contact with an infected neighbor. In this case, if the infection process is successful, the new infected individual changes his opinion from extremist positive to totally against the vaccine. We find that depending on the trend in the opinion of the society, which depends on $r$, different behaviors in the spread of the epidemic occurs. An epidemic threshold was found.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Cascading failures in interdependent networks with finite functional components

We present a cascading failure model of two interdependent networks in which functional nodes belong to components of size greater than or equal to $s$. We find theoretically and via simulation that in complex networks with random dependency links the transition is first-order for $s\geq 3$ and second-order for $s=2$. We find for two square lattices with a distance constraint $r$ in the dependency links that increasing $r$ moves the system from a regime without a phase transition to one with a second-order transition. As $r$ continues to increase the system collapses in a first-order transition. Each regime is associated with a different structure of domain formation of functional nodes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Interacting social processes on interconnected networks

We propose and study a model for the interplay between two different dynamical processes --one for opinion formation and the other for decision making-- on two interconnected networks $A$ and $B$. The opinion dynamics on network $A$ corresponds to that of the M-model, where the state of each agent can take one of four possible values ($S=-2,-1,1,2$), describing its level of agreement on a given issue. The likelihood to become an extremist ($S=\pm 2$) or a moderate ($S=\pm 1$) is controlled by a reinforcement parameter $r \ge 0$. The decision making dynamics on network $B$ is akin to that of the Abrams-Strogatz model, where agents can be either in favor ($S=+1$) or against ($S=-1$) the issue. The probability that an agent changes its state is proportional to the fraction of neighbors that hold the opposite state raised to a power $β$. Starting from a polarized case scenario in which all agents of network $A$ hold positive orientations while all agents of network $B$ have a negative orientation, we explore the conditions under which one of the dynamics prevails over the other, imposing its initial orientation. We find that, for a given value of $β$, the two-network system reaches a consensus in the positive state (initial state of network $A$) when the reinforcement overcomes a crossover value $r^*(β)$, while a negative consensus happens for $r β_c$. We develop an analytical mean-field approach that gives an insight into these regimes and shows that both dynamics are equivalent along the crossover line $(r^*,β^*)$.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Failure-recovery model with competition between failures in complex networks: a dynamical approach

Real systems are usually composed by units or nodes whose activity can be interrupted and restored intermittently due to complex interactions not only with the environment, but also with the same system. Majdandžić $et\;al.$ [Nature Physics 10, 34 (2014)] proposed a model to study systems in which active nodes fail and recover spontaneously in a complex network and found that in the steady state the density of active nodes can exhibit an abrupt transition and hysteresis depending on the values of the parameters. Here we investigate a model of recovery-failure from a dynamical point of view. Using an effective degree approach we find that the systems can exhibit a temporal sharp decrease in the fraction of active nodes. Moreover we show that, depending on the values of the parameters, the fraction of active nodes has an oscillatory regime which we explain as a competition between different failure processes. We also find that in the non-oscillatory regime, the critical fraction of active nodes presents a discontinuous drop which can be related to a "targeted" k-core percolation process. Finally, using mean field equations we analyze the space of parameters at which hysteresis and oscillatory regimes can be found.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Synchronization in interacting Scale Free Networks

We study the fluctuations of the interface, in the steady state, of the Surface Relaxation Model (SRM) in two scale free interacting networks where a fraction $q$ of nodes in both networks interact one to one through external connections. We find that as $q$ increases the fluctuations on both networks decrease and thus the synchronization reaches an improvement of nearly $40\%$ when $q=1$. The decrease of the fluctuations on both networks is due mainly to the diffusion through external connections which allows to reducing the load in nodes by sending their excess mostly to low-degree nodes, which we report have the lowest heights. This effect enhances the matching of the heights of low-and high-degree nodes as $q$ increases reducing the fluctuations. This effect is almost independent of the degree distribution of the networks which means that the interconnection governs the behavior of the process over its topology.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Recovery of Interdependent Networks

Recent network research has focused on the cascading failures in a system of interdependent networks and the necessary preconditions for system collapse. An important question that has not been addressed is how to repair a failing system before it suffers total breakdown. Here we introduce a recovery strategy of nodes and develop an analytic and numerical framework for studying the concurrent failure and recovery of a system of interdependent networks based on an efficient and practically reasonable strategy. Our strategy consists of repairing a fraction of failed nodes, with probability of recovery $γ$, that are neighbors of the largest connected component of each constituent network. We find that, for a given initial failure of a fraction $1-p$ of nodes, there is a critical probability of recovery above which the cascade is halted and the system fully restores to its initial state and below which the system abruptly collapses. As a consequence we find in the plane $γ-p$ of the phase diagram three distinct phases. A phase in which the system never collapses without being restored, another phase in which the recovery strategy avoids the breakdown, and a phase in which even the repairing process cannot avoid the system collapse.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August---which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80\% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2015

Epidemic Model with Isolation in Multilayer Networks

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all the research the isolation of infected individuals is disregarded. Hence we focus our study in an epidemic model in a two-layer network, and we use an isolation parameter to measure the effect of isolating infected individuals from both layers during an isolation period. We call this process the Susceptible-Infected-Isolated-Recovered ($SI_IR$) model. The isolation reduces the transmission of the disease because the time in which infection can spread is reduced. In this scenario we find that the epidemic threshold increases with the isolation period and the isolation parameter. When the isolation period is maximum there is a threshold for the isolation parameter above which the disease never becomes an epidemic. We also find that epidemic models, like $SIR$ overestimate the theoretical risk of infection. Finally, our model may provide a foundation for future research to study the temporal evolution of the disease calibrating our model with real data.

physics.soc-ph↗