L. Appel | Searcharxiv

arXiv2021

Bayesian equilibria of axisymmetric plasmas

We present a Bayesian method for inferring axisymmetric plasma equilibria from the magnetic field and plasma pressure measurements. The method calculates all possible solutions for plasma current and pressure distributions consistent with the measurements and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) force balance. Toroidal plasma current and magnetic field coils are modelled as a set of axisymmetric current-carrying solid beams. The other parameters such as plasma pressure and poloidal current flux are given as a function of poloidal magnetic flux, which is determined given a 2D current distribution. Plasma pressure and poloidal current flux profiles are modelled as Gaussian processes whose smoothness is optimally chosen based on the principle of Occam's razor. To find equilibrium solutions, we introduce an MHD force balance constraint at every plasma current beam as a part of the prior knowledge. Given all these physical quantities, predictions calculated by the predictive (forward) models for diagnostics are compared to the observations. The high dimensional complex posterior probability distribution is explored by a new algorithm based on the Gibbs sampling scheme.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2012

Evidence Cross-Validation and Bayesian Inference of MAST Plasma Equilibria

In this paper, current profiles for plasma discharges on the Mega-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) are directly calculated from pickup coil, flux loop and Motional-Stark Effect (MSE) observations via methods based in the statistical theory of Bayesian analysis. By representing toroidal plasma current as a series of axisymmetric current beams with rectangular cross-section and inferring the current for each one of these beams, flux-surface geometry and q-profiles are subsequently calculated by elementary application of Biot-Savart's law. The use of this plasma model in the context of Bayesian analysis was pioneered by Svensson and Werner on the Joint-European Tokamak (JET) [J. Svensson and A. Werner. Current tomography for axisymmetric plasmas. {\em Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion}, 50(8):085002, 2008]. In this framework, linear forward models are used to generate diagnostic predictions, and the probability distribution for the currents in the collection of plasma beams was subsequently calculated directly via application of Bayes' formula. In this work, we introduce a new diagnostic technique to identify and remove outlier observations associated with diagnostics falling out of calibration or suffering from an unidentified malfunction. These modifications enable good agreement between Bayesian inference of the last closed flux-surface (LCFS) with other corroborating data, such as such as that from force balance considerations using EFIT++ [L. Appel et al., Proc. 33rd EPS Conf., Rome, Italy, 2006]. In addition, this analysis also yields errors on the plasma current profile and flux-surface geometry, as well as directly predicting the Shafranov shift of the plasma core.

physics.plasm-ph↗