arXiv subjects

L. C. Mayorga

Publications and source records attributed to L. C. Mayorga.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Piercing through the Haze: Characterizing Titan-like terrestrial exoplanets with JWST

As we enter a new era of using JWST to characterize exoplanet atmospheres, a top priority is defining observational needs and parameters in the search for life on an exoplanet. Although some studies have begun to consider Titan-like exoplanet atmospheres, more work is needed to prepare for the potential discovery and characterization of Titan analogues with JWST and future missions. We explore the effectiveness of exoplanet atmospheric retrieval methodologies on the Cassini/VIMS-IR spectrum of Titan assuming agnostic haze properties and tholin hazes, as well as a self-consistent photochemical model. We compare our retrieved chemical abundances and haze profiles against fiducial values and Cassini/ISS-NAC UV observations and the forward modeled truths. We generalize these findings to a Titan-like exoplanet in the TRAPPIST-1 system and find that JWST-like observations have limited potential to identify features beyond methane in a Titan-like atmosphere, but may be able to identify the presence of the haze to a few hundred kilometers. The diagnostic features which would differentiate between different haze model (scattering) properties are shortward of 1\,\micron{} and further demonstrate the important role of nUV -- optical observatories in constraining the properties of exoplanet atmospheres. We also find that agnostic priors for the bulk atmosphere can lead to a degeneracy in which a spectrally active gas ($\rm CH_4$) is erroneously favored as the dominant atmospheric constituent over a spectrally inactive molecule (N_2).

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arXiv2026

Aerosols and hydrocarbons in the atmosphere of a white dwarf planet

Most stars, including our Sun, will one day evolve into red giants and, subsequently, white dwarfs. Several planet candidates have recently been identified orbiting white dwarfs, demonstrating that planets can survive the stellar post-main-sequence stage intact. Little is known about the atmospheric composition of post-main-sequence planets, with the most evolved transiting planets with atmospheric detections to date orbiting subgiants. Here we report an atmospheric detection for the white dwarf planet WD 1856 b, achieved through transmission spectroscopy with the JWST NIRSpec PRISM. Our 0.5-5.0 $μ$m spectrum reveals the presence of hydrocarbons (odds ratio of $167:1$ to $5377:1$, with $\mathrm{CH}_4$ preferred at $17:1$ to $30:1$), aerosols ($2 \times 10^5:1$ to $2 \times 10^6:1$), and thermal emission from the planetary nightside ($2 \times 10^{63}:1$ to $2 \times 10^{73}:1$). Our spectral analysis constrains WD 1856 b's mass to $4.3$ to $10.9 \mathrm{M}_J$, finds a carbon-enriched atmosphere (with a $\mathrm{CH}_4$ abundance of $\approx 7\%$), and an effective temperature exceeding the expected planetary equilibrium temperature ($390$ to $412 \, \mathrm{K}$ vs. $160 \, \mathrm{K}$). Based on cooling models, these results suggest that WD 1856 b underwent a migration-related reheating event $3.0$ to $5.5 \, \mathrm{Gyr}$ into the white dwarf phase, consistent with post-main-sequence tidal evolution to the present-day $0.02 \, \mathrm{au}$ circular orbit. Our results provide a window into the ultimate fate of giant planets orbiting stars with masses similar to our Sun.

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arXiv2026

Asymmetric nightside CO2 features, inefficient heat transport, and precise evolutionary constraints: Spectroscopic phase curves reveal the past and present of a white dwarf-brown dwarf binary

We present the first JWST phase curve of a white dwarf-brown dwarf binary, a NIRSpec PRISM observation of ZTFJ0038+2030. Short-period white dwarf-brown dwarf binaries provide unique laboratories to probe substellar atmospheres. Tidal locking drives hot Jupiter-like atmospheric dynamics in the brown dwarf. The system's formation history offers a window into planetary systems around post-main-sequence stars. We obtain a full-orbit phase curve of ZTF0038, including a total eclipse of the white dwarf, which enables us to separate the two components' emission throughout the entire orbit, and we model the brown dwarf's phase-resolved emission spectra using substellar atmosphere forward models and atmospheric retrievals. The PRISM spectrum covers ~80% of the brown dwarf's bolometric emission, enabling a nearly model-independent energy balance calculation, which yields a day-to-nightside heat transport efficiency of <10%. Inefficient heat redistribution is further supported by the phase curve shape and the nightside spectrum closely resembling non-irradiated mid-to-late T dwarfs. The spectroscopic phase curves reveal a stark nightside asymmetry associated with a strong CO2 absorption feature at 4.2 um, while the retrieved abundances indicate a longitudinally homogeneous distribution of CO2 as well as all other key species detected in the atmosphere. The precise internal luminosity measurement of the brown dwarf informs both the age of the WD-BD system (7.5-8.8 Gyr) and indicates a low common-envelope ejection efficiency. These data illustrate the exquisite opportunity to probe the three-dimensional processes of substellar atmospheres, connect substellar and exoplanet atmospheres, and probe the evolution of post-main-sequence planetary systems using WD-BDs.

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arXiv2026

Cloudy mornings and clear evenings on a gas giant exoplanet

The spectra of exoplanet atmospheres are affected by aerosols (clouds and hazes) of uncertain origin. Proposed aerosol formation mechanisms include gas condensation or photochemical reactions. We measure the transmission spectrum of the tidally locked gas giant exoplanet WASP-94A b and identify asymmetry in its atmosphere. The morning limb is cooler and cloudy, while the evening limb is hotter and exhibits gaseous H$_2$O absorption features. We interpret this difference as due to the formation of cloud droplets near the morning limb, which evaporate during circulation to the evening limb. The dominant aerosols are clouds cycling between the day and night sides of the atmosphere, not photochemical hazes. The resulting asymmetry can severely bias chemical abundance measurements, unless limb-resolved spectroscopy is available.

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arXiv2026

High Tide or Riptide on the Cosmic Shoreline? A Water-Rich Atmosphere or Stellar Contamination for the Warm Super-Earth GJ~486b from JWST Observations

Planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are prime targets in the search for rocky exoplanet atmospheres. The small size of M dwarfs renders their planets exceptional targets for transmission spectroscopy, facilitating atmospheric characterization. However, it remains unknown whether their host stars' highly variable extreme-UV radiation environments allow atmospheres to persist. With JWST, we have begun to determine whether or not the most favorable rocky worlds orbiting M dwarfs have detectable atmospheres. Here, we present a 2.8-5.2 micron JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectrum of the warm (700 K, 40.3x Earth's insolation) super-Earth GJ 486b (1.3 R$_{\oplus}$ and 3.0 M$_{\oplus}$). The measured spectrum from our two transits of GJ 486b deviates from a flat line at 2.2 - 3.3 $σ$, based on three independent reductions. Through a combination of forward and retrieval models, we determine that GJ 486b either has a water-rich atmosphere (with the most stringent constraint on the retrieved water abundance of H2O > 10% to 2$σ$) or the transmission spectrum is contaminated by water present in cool unocculted starspots. We also find that the measured stellar spectrum is best fit by a stellar model with cool starspots and hot faculae. While both retrieval scenarios provide equal quality fits ($χ^2_ν$ = 1.0) to our NIRSpec/G395H observations, shorter wavelength observations can break this degeneracy and reveal if GJ 486b sustains a water-rich atmosphere.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: The Nightside Emission and Chemistry of WASP-17b

Theoretical studies have suggested using planetary infrared excess (PIE) to detect and characterize the thermal emission of transiting and non-transiting exoplanets, however the PIE technique requires empirical validation. Here we apply the PIE technique to a combination of JWST NIRSpec G395H transit and eclipse measurements of WASP-17b, a hot Jupiter orbiting an F-type star, obtained consecutively (0.5 phase or 1.8 days apart) as part of the JWST-TST program to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS). Using the in-eclipse measured stellar spectrum to circumvent the need for ultra-precise stellar models, we extract the first JWST nightside emission spectrum of WASP-17b using only transit and eclipse data thereby performing a controlled test of the PIE technique. From the WASP-17b nightside spectrum, we measure a nightside equilibrium temperature of $1005 \pm 256$ K and find tentative evidence for nightside SO2 absorption ($\ln B = 1.45$, $2.3σ$). In context with the dayside, the temperature of the nightside is consistent with (1) previous eclipse mapping findings that suggest relatively inefficient day-night heat transport, and (2) a non-zero bond albedo of $0.42^{+0.06}_{-0.10}$. SO2 on the nightside, if confirmed, would represent the first direct evidence for transport-induced chemistry, matching previous model predictions, and opening a new door into the 3D nature of giant exoplanets. Our results suggest that PIE is feasible with JWST/NIRSpec for two epochs separated in time by significantly less than the rotation period of the host star.

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arXiv2025

Extreme Forward Scattering Observed in Disk-Averaged Near-Infrared Phase Curves of Titan

Titan, with its thick and hazy atmosphere, is a key world in our solar system for understanding light scattering processes. NASA's Cassini mission monitored Titan between 2004 and 2017, where the derived dataset includes a large number of whole disk observations. Once spatially integrated, these whole disk observations reveal Titan's phase-dependent brightness which can serve as an analog for how hazy worlds might appear around other stars. To explore Titan's phase curve, we present a pipeline for whole disk Titan observations acquired by the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) spanning 0.9--5.1 $μ$m. Application of the pipeline finds over 4,400 quality spatially- and spectrally-resolved datacubes that were then integrated over Titan's disk to yield phase curves spanning 2\degree--165\degree in phase angle. Spectra at near-full phase provide a useful approximation for Titan's geometric albedo, thus extending the spectral coverage of previous work. Crescent phase brightness enhancements in the Cassini VIMS phase curves are often more extreme than analogous results seen at optical wavelengths, which can be explained by atmospheric transparency and haze scattering processes. These results provide validation opportunities for exoplanet-focused spectral models and also shed light on how extreme aerosol forward scattering could influence exoplanet observations and interpretations.

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arXiv2025

Condensation Clouds in Substellar Atmospheres with Virga

Here we present an open-source cloud model for substellar atmospheres, called Virga. The Virga-v0 series has already been widely adopted in the literature. It is written in Python and has heritage from the Ackerman & Marley (2001) model (often referred to as eddysed), used to study clouds on both exoplanets and brown dwarfs. In the development of the official Virga-v1 we have retained all the original functionality of eddysed and updated/expanded several components including the back-end optical constants data, calculations of the Mie properties, available condensate species, saturation vapor pressure curves and formalism for fall speeds calculations. Here we benchmark Virga by reproducing key results in the literature, including the SiO2 cloud detection in WASP-17 b and the brown dwarf Diamondback-Sonora model series. Development of Virga is ongoing, with future versions already planned and ready for release. We encourage community feedback and collaborations within the GitHub code repository.

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arXiv2025

Additional JWST/NIRSpec Transits of the Rocky M Dwarf Exoplanet GJ 1132 b Reveal a Featureless Spectrum

As an archetypal M-dwarf rocky exoplanet, GJ 1132 b has a varied history of atmospheric measurements. At 1.13 $\rm R_{\oplus}$, 1.66 $\rm M_{\oplus}$, and 580 K, it orbits a bright, slowly rotating M dwarf in a 1.6-day period, making it a prime target for characterization. In this study, we combine two JWST NIRSpec/G395H transits previously reported by May and MacDonald et al. 2023 with two new NIRSpec/G395M transits to constrain the presence of an atmosphere. This marks the first time the G395H and G395M modes have been combined for a single target, and we report no difference in the quality of data between the two modes. For rocky M-dwarf studies, G395H may still be preferred if stacking transits to utilize the high-resolution flux-calibrated stellar spectra and assess evolving stellar heterogeneity. GJ 1132 b's co-added transmission spectrum is best-fit with a flat line. A thin steam atmosphere is also consistent with the data, but this interpretation is driven almost entirely by the first transit, which suggests an increase in cool spot coverage-fraction derived from the flux-calibrated stellar spectra. This demonstrates the importance of always considering stellar heterogeneity evolution in multi-visit transits, and also the importance of a "leave-one-transit-out" approach in modeling efforts of co-added transits. We combine these results with MIRI/LRS emission data (Xue et al. 2024) to show that together, transmission and emission are consistent with only the thinnest of atmospheres. Given GJ 1132 b's age and distance from the star, a thin atmosphere is not likely stable. Therefore, the simplest explanation is that GJ 1132 b is indeed a bare rock.

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arXiv2025

TOI-2005b: An Eccentric Warm Jupiter in Spin-Orbit Alignment

We report the discovery and characterization of TOI-2005b, a warm Jupiter on an eccentric (e~0.59), 17.3-day orbit around a V_mag = 9.867 rapidly rotating F-star. The object was detected as a candidate by TESS and the planetary nature of TOI-2005b was then confirmed via a series of ground-based photometric, spectroscopic, and diffraction-limited imaging observations. The planet was found to reside in a low sky-projected stellar obliquity orbit (lambda = 4.8 degrees) via a transit spectroscopic observation using the Magellan MIKE spectrograph.TOI-2005b is one of a few planets known to have a low-obliquity, high-eccentricity orbit, which may be the result of high-eccentricity coplanar migration. The planet has a periastron equilibrium temperature of ~ 2100 K, similar to some highly irradiated hot Jupiters where atomic metal species have been detected in transmission spectroscopy, and varies by almost 1000 K during its orbit. Future observations of the atmosphere of TOI-2005b can inform us about its radiative timescales thanks to the rapid heating and cooling of the planet.

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arXiv2025

Phase-resolved Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 Spectroscopy of Weakly-Irradiated Brown Dwarf GD 1400 and Energy Redistribution-Irradiation Trends in Six WD$-$BD Binaries

Irradiated brown dwarfs offer a unique opportunity to bridge the gap between stellar and planetary atmospheres. We present high-quality $\mathit{HST}$/WFC3/G141 phase-resolved spectra of the white dwarf + brown dwarf binary GD 1400, covering more than one full rotation of the brown dwarf. Accounting for brightness variations caused by ZZ Ceti pulsations, we revealed weak ($\sim$1\%) phase curve amplitude modulations originating from the brown dwarf. Sub-band light curve exploration in various bands showed no significant wavelength dependence on amplitude or phase shift. Extracted day- and night-side spectra indicated chemically similar hemispheres, with slightly higher day-side temperatures, suggesting efficient heat redistribution or dominance of radiative escape over atmospheric circulation. A simple radiative and energy redistribution model reproduced observed temperatures well. Cloud-inclusive models fit the day and night spectra better than cloudless models, indicating global cloud coverage. We also begin qualitatively exploring atmospheric trends across six irradiated brown dwarfs, from the now complete "Dancing with Dwarfs" WD$-$BD sample. The trend we find in the day-side/night-side temperature and irradiation levels is consistent with efficient heat redistribution for irradiation levels less than $\sim$10$^9$ ergs/s/cm$^2$ and decreasing efficiency above that level.

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arXiv2024

Observations of Uranus at High Phase Angle as Seen by New Horizons

We present flux measurements of Uranus observed at phase angles of 43.9°, 44.0°, and 52.4° by the Multispectral Visible Imaging Camera (MVIC) on the New Horizons spacecraft during 2023, 2010, and 2019, respectively. New Horizons imaged Uranus at a distance of about 24-70 AU (2023) in four color filters, with bandpasses of 400-550 nm, 540-700 nm, 780-975 nm, and 860-910 nm. High-phase-angle observations are of interest for studying the energy balance of Uranus, constraining the atmospheric scattering behavior, and understanding the planet as an analog for ice giant exoplanets. The new observations from New Horizons provide access to a wider wavelength range and different season compared to previous observations from both Voyager spacecraft. We performed aperture photometry on the New Horizons observations of Uranus to obtain its brightness in each photometric band. The photometry suggests that Uranus may be darker than predicted by a Lambertian phase curve in the Blue and Red filters. Comparison to simultaneous low-phase Hubble WFC3 and ground-based community-led observations indicates a lack of large-scale features at full-phase that would introduce variation in the rotational light curve. The New Horizons reflectance in the Blue (492 nm) and Red (624 nm) filters does not exhibit statistically significant variation and is consistent with the expected error bars. These results place new constraints on the atmospheric model of Uranus and its reflectivity. The observations are analogous to those from future exoplanet direct-imaging missions, which will capture unresolved images of exoplanets at partial phases. These results will serve as a "ground-truth" with which to interpret exo-ice giant data.

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arXiv2024

Spectroscopically resolved partial phase curve of the rapid heating and cooling of the highly-eccentric Hot Jupiter HAT-P-2b with WFC3

The extreme environments of transiting close-in exoplanets in highly-eccentric orbits are ideal for testing exo-climate physics. Spectroscopically resolved phase curves not only allow for the characterization of their thermal response to irradiation changes but also unveil phase-dependent atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. We observed a partial phase curve of the highly-eccentric close-in giant planet HAT-P-2b ($e=0.51,M=9M_{\rm{Jup}}$) with the Wide Field Camera 3 aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. Using these data, we updated the planet's orbital parameters and radius, and retrieved high-frequency pulsations consistent with the planet-induced pulsations reported in Spitzer data. We found that the peak in planetary flux occurred at $6.7\pm0.6$ hr after periastron, with a heating and cooling timescales of $9.0^{+3.5}_{-2.1}$ hr, and $3.6^{+0.7}_{-0.6}$ hr, respectively. We compare the light-curve to various 1-dimensional and 3-dimensional forward models, varying the planet's chemical composition. The strong contrast in flux increase and decrease timescales before and after periapse indicates an opacity term that emerges during the planet's heating phase, potentially due to more H$^{-}$ than expected from chemical equilibrium models. The phase-resolved spectra are largely featureless, that we interpret as indicative an inhomogeneous dayside. However, we identified an anomalously high flux in the spectroscopic bin coinciding with the hydrogen Paschen $β$ line and that is likely connected to the planet's orbit. We interpret this as due to shock heating of the upper atmosphere given the short timescale involved, or evidence for other star-planet interactions.

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arXiv2024

The only inflated brown dwarf in an eclipsing white dwarf-brown dwarf binary: WD1032+011B

Due to their short orbital periods and relatively high flux ratios, irradiated brown dwarfs in binaries with white dwarfs offer better opportunities to study irradiated atmospheres than hot Jupiters, which have lower planet-to-star flux ratios. WD1032+011 is an eclipsing, tidally locked white dwarf-brown dwarf binary with a 9950 K white dwarf orbited by a 69.7 M$_{Jup}$ brown dwarf in a 0.09 day orbit. We present time-resolved Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 spectrophotometric data of WD1032+011. We isolate the phase-dependent spectra of WD1032+011B, finding a 210 K difference in brightness temperature between the dayside and nightside. The spectral type of the brown dwarf is identified as L1 peculiar, with atmospheric retrievals and comparison to field brown dwarfs showing evidence for a cloud-free atmosphere. The retrieved temperature of the dayside is $1748^{+66}_{-67}$ K, with a nightside temperature of $1555^{+76}_{-62}$ K, showing an irradiation-driven temperature contrast coupled with inefficient heat redistribution from the dayside to the nightside. The brown dwarf radius is inflated, likely due to the constant irradiation from the white dwarf, making it the only known inflated brown dwarf in an eclipsing white dwarf-brown dwarf binary.

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arXiv2024

TOI-2490b- The most eccentric brown dwarf transiting in the brown dwarf desert

We report the discovery of the most eccentric transiting brown dwarf in the brown dwarf desert, TOI02490b. The brown dwarf desert is the lack of brown dwarfs around main sequence stars within $\sim3$~AU and is thought to be caused by differences in formation mechanisms between a star and planet. To date, only $\sim40$ transiting brown dwarfs have been confirmed. \systemt is a $73.6\pm2.4$ \mjupnospace, $1.00\pm0.02$ \rjup brown dwarf orbiting a $1.004_{-0.022}^{+0.031}$ \msunnospace, $1.105_{-0.012}^{+0.012}$ \rsun sun-like star on a 60.33~d orbit with an eccentricity of $0.77989\pm0.00049$. The discovery was detected within \tess sectors 5 (30 minute cadence) and 32 (2 minute and 20 second cadence). It was then confirmed with 31 radial velocity measurements with \feros by the WINE collaboration and photometric observations with the Next Generation Transit Survey. Stellar modelling of the host star estimates an age of $\sim8$~Gyr, which is supported by estimations from kinematics likely placing the object within the thin disc. However, this is not consistent with model brown dwarf isochrones for the system age suggesting an inflated radius. Only one other transiting brown dwarf with an eccentricity higher than 0.6 is currently known in the brown dwarf desert. Demographic studies of brown dwarfs have suggested such high eccentricity is indicative of stellar formation mechanisms.

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arXiv2024

A Benchmark JWST Near-Infrared Spectrum for the Exoplanet WASP-39b

Observing exoplanets through transmission spectroscopy supplies detailed information on their atmospheric composition, physics, and chemistry. Prior to JWST, these observations were limited to a narrow wavelength range across the near-ultraviolet to near-infrared, alongside broadband photometry at longer wavelengths. To understand more complex properties of exoplanet atmospheres, improved wavelength coverage and resolution are necessary to robustly quantify the influence of a broader range of absorbing molecular species. Here we present a combined analysis of JWST transmission spectroscopy across four different instrumental modes spanning 0.5-5.2 micron using Early Release Science observations of the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b. Our uniform analysis constrains the orbital and stellar parameters within sub-percent precision, including matching the precision obtained by the most precise asteroseismology measurements of stellar density to-date, and further confirms the presence of Na, K, H$_2$O, CO, CO$_2$, and SO$_2$ atmospheric absorbers. Through this process, we also improve the agreement between the transmission spectra of all modes, except for the NIRSpec PRISM, which is affected by partial saturation of the detector. This work provides strong evidence that uniform light curve analysis is an important aspect to ensuring reliability when comparing the high-precision transmission spectra provided by JWST.

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arXiv2024

Time-resolved Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 Spectrophotometry Reveals Inefficient Day-to-Night Heat Redistribution in the Highly Irradiated Brown Dwarf SDSS 1557B

Brown dwarfs in ultra-short period orbits around white dwarfs offer a unique opportunity to study the properties of tidally-locked, fast rotating (1-3 hr), and highly-irradiated atmospheres. Here, we present phase-resolved spectrophotometry of the white dwarf-brown dwarf (WD-BD) binary SDSS 1557, which is the fifth WD-BD binary in our six-object sample. Using the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 Near-infrared G141 instrument, the 1.1 to 1.7 $μ$m phase curves show rotational modulations with semi-amplitudes of 10.5$\pm$0.1%. We observe a wavelength dependent amplitude, with longer wavelengths producing larger amplitudes, while no wavelength dependent phase shifts were identified. The phase-resolved extracted BD spectra exhibit steep slopes and are nearly featureless. A simple radiative energy redistribution atmospheric model recreates the hemisphere integrated brightness temperatures at three distinct phases and finds evidence for weak redistribution efficiency. Our model also predicts a higher inclination than previously published. We find that SDSS 1557B, the second most irradiated BD in our sample, is likely dominated by clouds on the night side, whereas the featureless day side spectrum is likely dominated by H$^-$ opacity and a temperature inversion, much like the other highly-irradiated BD EPIC2122B.

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arXiv2024

JWST/NIRCam Transmission Spectroscopy of the Nearby Sub-Earth GJ 341b

We present a JWST/NIRCam transmission spectrum from $3.9-5.0$ $μ$m of the recently-validated sub-Earth GJ 341b ($\mathrm{R_P} = 0.92$ $\mathrm{R_{\oplus}}$, $\mathrm{T_{eq}} = 540$ K) orbiting a nearby bright M1 star ($\mathrm{d} = 10.4$ pc, $\mathrm{K_{mag}}=5.6$). We use three independent pipelines to reduce the data from the three JWST visits and perform several tests to check for the significance of an atmosphere. Overall, our analysis does not uncover evidence of an atmosphere. Our null hypothesis tests find that none of our pipelines' transmission spectra can rule out a flat line, although there is weak evidence for a Gaussian feature in two spectra from different pipelines (at 2.3 and $2.9σ$). However, the candidate features are seen at different wavelengths (4.3 $μ$m vs 4.7 $μ$m), and our retrieval analysis finds that different gas species can explain these features in the two reductions (CO$_2$ at $3.1σ$ compared to O$_3$ at $2.9σ$), suggesting that they are not real astrophysical signals. Our forward model analysis rules out a low mean molecular weight atmosphere ($< 350\times$ solar metallicity) to at least $3σ$, and disfavors CH$_4$-dominated atmospheres at $1-3σ$, depending on the reduction. Instead, the forward models find our transmission spectra are consistent with no atmosphere, a hazy atmosphere, or an atmosphere containing a species that does not have prominent molecular bands across the NIRCam/F444W bandpass, such as a water-dominated atmosphere. Our results demonstrate the unequivocal need for two or more transit observations analyzed with multiple reduction pipelines, alongside rigorous statistical tests, to determine the robustness of molecular detections for small exoplanet atmospheres.

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