arXiv subjects

L. Y. Aaron Yung

Publications and source records attributed to L. Y. Aaron Yung.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

A Long Time Ago in a Galaxy Far, Far Away: A Candidate z ~ 12 Galaxy in Early JWST CEERS Imaging

We report the discovery of a candidate galaxy with a photo-z of z~12 in the first epoch of the JWST Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. Following conservative selection criteria we identify a source with a robust z_phot = 11.8^+0.3_-0.2 (1-sigma uncertainty) with m_F200W=27.3, and >7-sigma detections in five filters. The source is not detected at lambda < 1.4um in deep imaging from both HST and JWST, and has faint ~3-sigma detections in JWST F150W and HST F160W, which signal a Ly-alpha break near the red edge of both filters, implying z~12. This object (Maisie's Galaxy) exhibits F115W-F200W > 1.9 mag (2-sigma lower limit) with a blue continuum slope, resulting in 99.6% of the photo-z PDF favoring z > 11. All data quality images show no artifacts at the candidate's position, and independent analyses consistently find a strong preference for z > 11. Its colors are inconsistent with Galactic stars, and it is resolved (r_h = 340 +/- 14 pc). Maisie's Galaxy has log M*/Msol ~ 8.5 and is highly star-forming (log sSFR ~ -8.2 yr^-1), with a blue rest-UV color (beta ~ -2.5) indicating little dust though not extremely low metallicity. While the presence of this source is in tension with most predictions, it agrees with empirical extrapolations assuming UV luminosity functions which smoothly decline with increasing redshift. Should followup spectroscopy validate this redshift, our Universe was already aglow with galaxies less than 400 Myr after the Big Bang.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Extragalactic Science with the Experiment for Cryogenic Large-aperture Intensity Mapping

The EXperiment for Cryogenic Large-Aperture Intensity Mapping (EXCLAIM) is a balloon-borne cryogenic telescope that will survey the spectrum of diffuse emission from both the Milky Way and the cosmic web to probe star formation, the interstellar medium, and galaxy evolution across cosmic time. EXCLAIM's primary extragalactic science survey maps 305 deg$^2$ along the celestial equator with an R=512 spectrometer over the frequency range ν=420-540 GHz, targeting emission of the [CII] line over redshifts 2.5<z<3.5 and several CO lines for z<1. Cross-correlation with galaxy redshift catalogs isolates line emission from the large-scale structure at target redshifts. In this paper, we forecast the sensitivity for both the two-point and conditional one-point cross-correlation. We predict that EXCLAIM will detect both the [CII]-QSO cross-power spectrum and the conditional voxel intensity distribution (CVID) at various redshifts under a broad range of [CII] intensity models, allowing it to differentiate among these models in the literature. These forecasts for the power spectra include the effects of line interlopers and continuum foreground contamination. We then convert the joint [CII] constraints from both the cross-power spectrum and the CVID into constraints on the [CII] halo luminosity-mass relation $L_\mathrm{[CII]}(M)$ model parameters and the star formation rate density (SFRD) from [CII] emission. We also develop sensitivity estimates for CO, showing the ability to differentiate between models.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

CEERS Key Paper III: The Resolved Host Properties of AGN at 3 < z < 5 with JWST

We report on the host properties of five X-ray luminous Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) identified at $3 < z < 5$ in the first epoch of imaging from the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). Each galaxy has been imaged with the \textit{James Webb Space Telescope} (\jwst) Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam), which provides spatially resolved, rest-frame optical morphologies at these redshifts. We also derive stellar masses and star formation rates for each host galaxy by fitting its spectral energy distribution using a combination of galaxy and AGN templates. The AGN hosts have an average stellar mass of ${\rm log}(M_{*}/{\rm M_{\odot}} )= 11.0$, making them among the most massive galaxies detected at this redshift range in the current CEERS pointings, even after accounting for nuclear light from the AGN. We find that three of the AGN hosts have spheroidal morphologies, one is a bulge-dominated disk and one host is dominated by point-like emission. None are found to show strong morphological disturbances that might indicate a recent interaction or merger event. Notably, all four of the resolved hosts have rest-frame optical colors consistent with a quenched or post-starburst stellar population. The presence of AGN in passively evolving galaxies at $z>3$ is significant because a rapid feedback mechanism is required in most semi-analytic models and cosmological simulations to explain the growing population of massive quiescent galaxies observed at these redshifts. Our findings are in general agreement with this picture and show that AGN can continue to inject energy into these systems after their star formation is curtailed, possibly helping to maintain their quiescent state.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Identifying Galaxy Mergers in Simulated CEERS NIRCam Images using Random Forests

Identifying merging galaxies is an important - but difficult - step in galaxy evolution studies. We present random forest classifications of galaxy mergers from simulated JWST images based on various standard morphological parameters. We describe (a) constructing the simulated images from IllustrisTNG and the Santa Cruz SAM, and modifying them to mimic future CEERS observations as well as nearly noiseless observations, (b) measuring morphological parameters from these images, and (c) constructing and training the random forests using the merger history information for the simulated galaxies available from IllustrisTNG. The random forests correctly classify $\sim60\%$ of non-merging and merging galaxies across $0.5 < z < 4.0$. Rest-frame asymmetry parameters appear more important for lower redshift merger classifications, while rest-frame bulge and clump parameters appear more important for higher redshift classifications. Adjusting the classification probability threshold does not improve the performance of the forests. Finally, the shape and slope of the resulting merger fraction and merger rate derived from the random forest classifications match with theoretical Illustris predictions, but are underestimated by a factor of $\sim 0.5$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Galaxy Formation in the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model compared with IllustrisTNG -- I. Galaxy scaling relations, dispersions, and residuals at z=0

We present the first results from applying the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model (SAM) for galaxy formation on merger trees extracted from a dark matter only version of the IllustrisTNG (TNG) simulations. We carry out a statistical comparison between the predictions of the Santa Cruz SAM and TNG for a subset of central galaxy properties at z = 0, with a focus on stellar mass, cold and hot gas mass, star formation rate (SFR), and black hole (BH) mass. We find fairly good agreement between the mean predictions of the two methods for stellar mass functions and the stellar mass vs. halo mass (SMHM) relation, and qualitatively good agreement between the SFR or cold gas mass vs. stellar mass relation and quenched fraction as a function of stellar mass. There are greater differences between the predictions for hot (circumgalactic) gas mass and BH mass as a function of halo mass. Going beyond the mean relations, we also compare the dispersion in the predicted scaling relations, and the correlation in residuals on a halo-by-halo basis between halo mass and galaxy property scaling relations. Intriguingly, we find similar correlations between residuals in SMHM in the SAM and in TNG, suggesting that these relations may be shaped by similar physical processes. Other scaling relations do not show significant correlations in the residuals, indicating that the physics implementations in the SAM and TNG are significantly different.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Semi-analytic forecasts for JWST -- VI. Simulated lightcones and galaxy clustering predictions

In anticipation of the new era of high-redshift exploration marked by the commissioning of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), we present two sets of galaxy catalogues that are designed to aid the planning and interpretation of observing programs. We provide a set of 40 wide-field lightcones with footprints spanning approximately ~ 1,000 sq. arcmin, containing galaxies up to z = 10, and a new set of 8 ultra-deep lightcones with 132 sq. arcmin footprints, containing galaxies up to z ~ 12 down to the magnitudes expected to be reached in the deepest JWST surveys. These mock lightcones are extracted from dissipationless N-body simulations and populated with galaxies using the well-established, computationally efficient Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation. We provide a wide range of predicted physical properties, and simulated photometry from NIRCam and many other instruments. We explore the predicted counts and luminosity functions and angular two-point correlation functions for galaxies in these simulated lightcones. We also explore the predicted field-to-field variance using multiple lightcone realizations. We find that these lightcones reproduce the available measurements of observed clustering from 0.2 < z < 7.5 very well. We provide predictions for galaxy clustering at high redshift that may be obtained from future JWST observations. All of the lightcones presented here are made available through a web-based, interactive data release portal https://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/group/sam-forecasts.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

On the Stellar Populations of Galaxies at z=9-11: The Growth of Metals and Stellar Mass at Early Times

We present a detailed stellar population analysis of 11 bright ($H<26.6$) galaxies at $z=9-11$ (three spectroscopically confirmed) to constrain the chemical enrichment and growth of stellar mass of early galaxies. We use the flexible Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code Prospector with a range of star-formation histories (SFHs), a flexible dust attenuation law and a self-consistent modeling of emission lines. This approach allows us to assess how different priors affect our results, and how well we can break degeneracies between dust attenuation, stellar ages, metallicity and emission lines using data which probe only the rest-frame ultraviolet to optical wavelengths. We measure a median observed ultraviolet spectral slope $β=-1.87_{-0.43}^{+0.35}$ for relatively massive star-forming galaxies ($9<\log(M_{\star}/M_{\odot})<10$), consistent with no change from $z=4$ to $z=9-10$ at these stellar masses, implying rapid enrichment. Our SED-fitting results are consistent with a star-forming main sequence with sub-linear slope ($0.7\pm0.2$) and specific star-formation rates of $3-10~\mathrm{Gyr}^{-1}$. However, the stellar ages and SFHs are less well constrained. Using different SFH priors, we cannot distinguish between median mass-weighted ages of $\sim50-150$ Myr, which corresponds to 50\% formation redshifts of $z_{50}\sim10-12$ at $z\sim9$ and is of the order of the dynamical timescales of these systems. Importantly, the models with different SFH priors are able to fit the data equally well. We conclude that the current observational data cannot tightly constrain the mass-buildup timescales of these $z=9-11$ galaxies, with our results consistent with SFHs implying both a shallow and steep increase of the cosmic SFR density with time at $z>10$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

A Search for H-Dropout Lyman Break Galaxies at z~12-16

We present two bright galaxy candidates at z~12-13 identified in our H-dropout Lyman break selection with 2.3 deg2 near-infrared deep imaging data. These galaxy candidates, selected after careful screening of foreground interlopers, have spectral energy distributions showing a sharp discontinuity around 1.7 um, a flat continuum at 2-5 um, and non-detections at <1.2 um in the available photometric datasets, all of which are consistent with z>12 galaxy. An ALMA program targeting one of the candidates shows a tentative 4sigma [OIII]88um line at z=13.27, in agreement with its photometric redshift estimate. The number density of the z~12-13 candidates is comparable to that of bright z~10 galaxies, and is consistent with a recently proposed double power-law luminosity function rather than the Schechter function, indicating little evolution in the abundance of bright galaxies from z~4 to 13. Comparisons with theoretical models show that the models cannot reproduce the bright end of rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity functions at z~10-13. Combined with recent studies reporting similarly bright galaxies at z~9-11 and mature stellar populations at z~6-9, our results indicate the existence of a number of star-forming galaxies at z>10, which will be detected with upcoming space missions such as James Webb Space Telescope, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and GREX-PLUS.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Galaxy Correlation Function and Local Density from Photometric Redshifts Using the Stochastic Order Redshift Technique (SORT)

The stochastic order redshift technique (SORT) is a simple, efficient, and robust method to improve cosmological redshift measurements. The method relies upon having a small ($\sim$10 per cent) reference sample of high-quality redshifts. Within pencil-beam-like sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy, we use the precise dN/d$z$ distribution of the reference sample to recover new redshifts and assign them one-to-one to galaxies such that the original rank order of redshifts is preserved. Preserving the rank order is motivated by the fact that random variables drawn from Gaussian probability density functions with different means but equal standard deviations satisfy stochastic ordering. The process is repeated for sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy in the survey. This results in every galaxy with an uncertain redshift being assigned multiple "recovered" redshifts from which a new redshift estimate can be determined. An earlier paper applied SORT to a mock Sloan Digital Sky Survey at $z \lesssim$ 0.2 and accurately recovered the two-point correlation function on scales $\gtrsim$4 $h^{-1}$Mpc. In this paper, we test the performance of SORT in surveys spanning the redshift range 0.75$<z<$2.25. We used two mock surveys extracted from the Small MultiDark-Planck and Bolshoi-Planck N-body simulations with dark matter haloes that were populated by the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We find that SORT is able to improve redshift estimates and recover distinctive large-scale features of the cosmic web. Further, it provides unbiased estimates of the redshift-space two-point correlation function $ξ(s)$ on scales $\gtrsim$2.5 $h^{-1}$Mpc, as well as local densities in regions of average or higher density. This may allow improved understanding of how galaxy properties relate to their local environments.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

A Census of the Bright z=8.5-11 Universe with the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes in the CANDELS Fields

We present the results from a new search for candidate galaxies at z ~ 8.5-11 discovered over the 850 arcmin^2 area probed by the Cosmic Assembly Near-Infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). We use a photometric redshift selection including both Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope photometry to robustly identify galaxies in this epoch at F160W < 26.6. We use a detailed vetting procedure, including screening for persistence, stellar contamination, inclusion of ground-based imaging, and followup space-based imaging to build a robust sample of 11 candidate galaxies, three presented here for the first time. The inclusion of Spitzer/IRAC photometry in the selection process reduces contamination, and yields more robust redshift estimates than Hubble alone. We constrain the evolution of the rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity function via a new method of calculating the observed number densities without choosing a prior magnitude bin size. We find that the abundance at our brightest probed luminosities (M_UV=-22.3) is consistent with predictions from simulations which assume that galaxies in this epoch have gas depletion times at least as short as those in nearby starburst galaxies. Due to large Poisson and cosmic variance uncertainties we cannot conclusively rule out either a smooth evolution of the luminosity function continued from z=4-8, or an accelerate decline at z > 8. We calculate that the presence of seven galaxies in a single field (EGS) is an outlier at the 2-sigma significance level, implying the discovery of a significant overdensity. These scenarios will be imminently testable to high confidence within the first year of observations of the James Webb Space Telescope.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Semi-analytic forecasts for JWST -- V. AGN luminosity functions and helium reionization at z = 2-7

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) forming in the early universe are thought to be the primary source of hard ionizing photons contributing to the reionization of intergalactic helium. However, the number density and spectral properties of high-redshift AGN remain largely unconstrained. In this work, we make use of physically-informed models calibrated with a wide variety of available observations to provide estimates for the role of AGN throughout the Epoch of Reionization. We present AGN luminosity functions in various bands between z = 2 to 7 predicted by the well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic model, which includes modelling of black hole accretion and AGN feedback. We then combine the predicted AGN populations with a physical spectral model for self-consistent estimates of ionizing photon production rates, which depend on the mass and accretion rate of the accreting supermassive black hole. We then couple the predicted comoving ionizing emissivity with an analytic model to compute the subsequent reionization history of intergalactic helium and hydrogen. This work demonstrates the potential of coupling physically motivated analytic or semi-analytic techniques to capture multi-scale physical processes across a vast range of scales (here, from AGN accretion disks to cosmological scales). Our physical model predicts an intrinsic ionizing photon budget well above many of the estimates in the literature, meaning that helium reionization can comfortably be accomplished even with a relatively low escape fraction. We also make predictions for the AGN populations that are expected to be detected in future \emph{James Webb Space Telescope} surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

IQ Collaboratory III: The Empirical Dust Attenuation Framework -- Taking Hydrodynamical Simulations with a Grain of Dust

We present the Empirical Dust Attenuation (EDA) framework -- a flexible prescription for assigning realistic dust attenuation to simulated galaxies based on their physical properties. We use the EDA to forward model synthetic observations for three state-of-the-art large-scale cosmological hydrodynamical simulations: SIMBA, IllustrisTNG, and EAGLE. We then compare the optical and UV color-magnitude relations, $(g-r) - M_r$ and $(FUV-NUV)-M_r$, of the simulations to a $M_r < -20$ and UV complete SDSS galaxy sample using likelihood-free inference. Without dust, none of the simulations match observations, as expected. With the EDA, however, we can reproduce the observed color-magnitude with all three simulations. Furthermore, the attenuation curves predicted by our dust prescription are in good agreement with the observed attenuation-slope relations and attenuation curves of star-forming galaxies. However, the EDA does not predict star-forming galaxies with low $A_V$ since simulated star-forming galaxies are intrinsically much brighter than observations. Additionally, the EDA provides, for the first time, predictions on the attenuation curves of quiescent galaxies, which are challenging to measure observationally. Simulated quiescent galaxies require shallower attenuation curves with lower amplitude than star-forming galaxies. The EDA, combined with forward modeling, provides an effective approach for shedding light on dust in galaxies and probing hydrodynamical simulations. This work also illustrates a major limitation in comparing galaxy formation models: by adjusting dust attenuation, simulations that predict significantly different galaxy populations can reproduce the same UV and optical observations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

The NEWFIRM HETDEX Survey: Photometric Catalog and a Conservative Sample of Massive Quiescent Galaxies at z=3-5 over 17.5 deg^2 in the SHELA Field

We present the results of a deep K_s-band (2.1 um) imaging survey of the Spitzer/HETDEX Exploratory Large Area (SHELA) field using the NEWFIRM near-infrared (NIR) camera on the KPNO Mayall 4-m telescope. This NEWFIRM HETDEX Survey (NHS) reaches a 5-sigma depth of 22.4 AB mag (2"-diameter apertures corrected to total), is ~50% and 90% complete at K~22.65 and K~22.15, respectively, and covers 22 deg^2 of the 24 deg^2 SHELA Spitzer/ IRAC footprint (within ``Stripe 82' of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey). We present a K_s-band-selected catalog which includes deep ugriz imaging from the Dark Energy Camera and 3.6 and 4.5 um imaging from Spitzer/IRAC, with forced-photometry of 1.7 million sources across 17.5 deg^2. The large area and moderate depth of this catalog enables the study of the most massive galaxies at high redshift, and minimizes uncertainties associated with counting statistics and cosmic variance. As a demonstration, we derive stellar masses (M*) and star-formation rates (SFRs) for candidate galaxies at 3 < z < 5, and select a conservative sample of nine candidate massive (M* > 10^11 Msol) quiescent galaxies, which have measured SFRs significantly below the main-sequence at this redshift. Five are ultra-massive with M* > 10^12, though uncertainties in IRAC blending, gravitational lensing, or AGN emission could result in true masses which are lower. Simulations predict that these galaxies should be extremely rare, thus we discuss what physical processes in models could be altered to allow the formation of such massive quiescent galaxies at such early times.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Mock Lightcones and Theory Friendly Catalogs for the CANDELS Survey

We present mock catalogs created to support the interpretation of the CANDELS survey. We extract halos along past lightcones from the Bolshoi Planck dissipationless N-body simulations and populate these halos with galaxies using two different independently developed semi-analytic models of galaxy formation and the empirical model UniverseMachine. Our mock catalogs have geometries that encompass the footprints of observations associated with the five CANDELS fields. In order to allow field-to-field variance to be explored, we have created eight realizations of each field. In this paper, we present comparisons with observable global galaxy properties, including counts in observed frame bands, luminosity functions, color-magnitude distributions and color-color distributions. We additionally present comparisons with physical galaxy parameters derived from SED fitting for the CANDELS observations, such as stellar masses and star formation rates. We find relatively good agreement between the model predictions and CANDELS observations for luminosity and stellar mass functions. We find poorer agreement for colors and star formation rate distributions. All of the mock lightcones as well as curated "theory friendly" versions of the observational CANDELS catalogs are made available through a web-based data hub.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

JWST/MIRI Simulated Imaging: Insights into Obscured Star-Formation and AGN for Distant Galaxies in Deep Surveys

The JWST MIRI instrument will revolutionize extragalactic astronomy with unprecedented sensitivity and angular resolution in mid-IR. Here, we assess the potential of MIRI photometry to constrain galaxy properties in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey. We derive estimated MIRI fluxes from the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of real sources that fall in a planned MIRI pointing. We also obtain MIRI fluxes for hypothetical AGN-galaxy mixed models varying the AGN fractional contribution to the total IR luminosity ($\rm frac_{AGN}$). Based on these model fluxes, we simulate CEERS imaging (3.6-hour exposure) in 6 bands from F770W to F2100W using MIRISIM, and reduce these data using JWST PIPELINE. We perform PSF-matched photometry with TPHOT, and fit the source SEDs with X-CIGALE, simultaneously modeling photometric redshift and other physical properties. Adding the MIRI data, the accuracy of both redshift and $\rm frac_{AGN}$ is generally improved by factors of $\gtrsim 2$ for all sources at $z\lesssim 3$. Notably, for pure-galaxy inputs ($\rm frac_{AGN}=0$), the accuracy of $\rm frac_{AGN}$ is improved by $\sim 100$ times thanks to MIRI. The simulated CEERS MIRI data are slightly more sensitive to AGN detections than the deepest X-ray survey, based on the empirical $L_{\rm X}$-$L_{\rm 6μm}$ relation. Like X-ray observations, MIRI can also be used to constrain the AGN accretion power (accuracy $\approx 0.3$ dex). Our work demonstrates that MIRI will be able to place strong constraints on the mid-IR luminosities from star formation and AGN, and thereby facilitate studies of the galaxy/AGN co-evolution.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

The Evolution of the Baryons Associated with Galaxies Averaged over Cosmic Time and Space

We combine the recent determination of the evolution of the cosmic density of molecular gas (H_2) using deep, volumetric surveys, with previous estimates of the cosmic density of stellar mass, star formation rate and atomic gas (HI), to constrain the evolution of baryons associated with galaxies averaged over cosmic time and space. The cosmic HI and H_2 densities are roughly equal at z~1.5. The H_2 density then decreases by a factor 6^{+3}_{-2} to today's value, whereas the HI density stays approximately constant. The stellar mass density is increasing continuously with time and surpasses that of the total gas density (HI and H_2) at redshift z~1.5. The growth in stellar mass cannot be accounted for by the decrease in cosmic H_2 density, necessitating significant accretion of additional gas onto galaxies. With the new H_2 constraints, we postulate and put observational constraints on a two step gas accretion process: (i) a net infall of ionized gas from the intergalactic/circumgalactic medium to refuel the extended HI reservoirs, and (ii) a net inflow of HI and subsequent conversion to H_2 in the galaxy centers. Both the infall and inflow rate densities have decreased by almost an order of magnitude since z~2. Assuming that the current trends continue, the cosmic molecular gas density will further decrease by about a factor of two over the next 5 Gyr, the stellar mass will increase by approximately 10%, and cosmic star formation activity will decline steadily toward zero, as the gas infall and accretion shut down.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

The Universe at z>10: Predictions for JWST from the UniverseMachine DR1

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at $z>10$ that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the UniverseMachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and lightcones over the redshift range $z=0-15$. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy-halo relationships, and galaxy-galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at $z<10$. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with $M_*>10^7 M_\odot$ and/or $M_{1500}<-17$ out to at least $z\sim 13.5$. Number density uncertainties at $z>12$ expand dramatically, so efforts to detect $z>12$ galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. The faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits ($M_\ast < 10^7M_\odot$ or $M_\mathrm{1500}>-17$). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from $M_{1500}=-17$ down to $M_{1500}=-12$ gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to $z\sim 12$. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and lightcones for common fields are available online.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Semi-analytic forecasts for JWST -- IV. Implications for cosmic reionization and LyC escape fraction

Galaxies forming in low-mass halos are thought to be primarily responsible for reionizing the Universe during the first billion years after the Big Bang. Yet, these halos are extremely inefficient at forming stars in the nearby Universe. In this work, we address this apparent tension, and ask whether a physically motivated model of galaxy formation that reproduces the observed abundance of faint galaxies in the nearby Universe is also consistent with available observational constraints on the reionization history. By interfacing the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation with an analytic reionization model, we constructed a computationally efficient pipeline that connects `ground-level' galaxy formation physics to `top-level' cosmological-scale observables. Based on photometric properties of the galaxy populations predicted up to $z=15$, we compute the reionization history of intergalactic hydrogen. We quantify the three degenerate quantities that influence the total ionizing photon budget, including the abundance of galaxies, the intrinsic production rate of ionizing photons, and the LyC escape fraction. We explore covariances between these quantities using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We find that our locally calibrated model is consistent with all currently available constraints on the reionization history, under reasonable assumptions about the LyC escape fraction. We quantify the fraction of ionizing photons contributed by galaxies of different luminosities and find that the galaxies expected to be detected in JWST NIRCam wide and deep surveys are responsible for producing $\sim 40$-$80\%$ of ionizing photons throughout the EoR. All results presented in this work are available at https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/.

astro-ph.GA↗