arXiv subjects

LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

Publications and source records attributed to LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

LSST Strong Lensing Systems Dark Matter Sensitivity Analysis with Neural Ratio Estimators

Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique probe of dark matter (DM) on sub-galactic scales, where the abundance and distribution of low-mass halos are highly sensitive to the underlying properties of DM particles. In this work, we forecast LSST's sensitivity to DM substructure in galaxy-galaxy strong lenses using simulated samples and neural ratio estimators (NREs). Our simulations include both subhalos within the main deflector and line-of-sight (LOS) halos, with halo masses down to $\sim 10^7 M_\odot$ under the expected LSST ten-year survey imaging quality. We show that the constraining power on halo mass function (HMF) parameters improves significantly with sample size. Analyses based on a few hundred lenses yield broad posteriors comparable with other probes like the Ly-$α$ forest. By contrast, when combining 2500 lenses, $\approx 74\%$ and $\approx 36\%$ of the prior volume considered can be excluded at the $3σ$ and $5σ$ levels respectively, enabling statistically significant exclusions of non-$Λ$CDM scenarios. We further demonstrate that the sensitivity arises not only from the high-mass end of the HMF but also from low-mass halos: masking halos below $\log (m_{\rm halo}/M_\odot) \leq 7.5$ induces a measurable shift in the inferred posteriors. Finally, we find that LOS halos contribute significantly to the constraining power, with increasing importance of LOS halos at higher redshifts. While this analysis assumes perfect knowledge of the data-generating process and cannot be directly applied to data analysis, it quantifies constraints achievable with LSST alone and motivates the development of robust inference methods for real survey data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

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arXiv2025

Neural Posterior Estimation for Cataloging Astronomical Images from the Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will commence full-scale operations in 2026, yielding an unprecedented volume of astronomical images. Constructing an astronomical catalog, a table of imaged stars, galaxies, and their properties, is a fundamental step in most scientific workflows based on astronomical image data. Traditional deterministic cataloging methods lack statistical coherence as cataloging is an ill-posed problem, while existing probabilistic approaches suffer from computational inefficiency, inaccuracy, or the inability to perform inference with multiband coadded images, the primary output format for LSST images. In this article, we explore a recently developed Bayesian inference method called neural posterior estimation (NPE) as an approach to cataloging. NPE leverages deep learning to achieve both computational efficiency and high accuracy. When evaluated on the DC2 Simulated Sky Survey -- a highly realistic synthetic dataset designed to mimic LSST data -- NPE systematically outperforms the standard LSST pipeline in light source detection, flux measurement, star/galaxy classification, and galaxy shape measurement. Additionally, NPE provides well-calibrated posterior approximations. These promising results, obtained using simulated data, illustrate the potential of NPE in the absence of model misspecification. Although some degree of model misspecification is inevitable in the application of NPE to real LSST images, there are a variety of strategies to mitigate its effects.

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arXiv2025

Photometric Redshift Estimation for Rubin Observatory Data Preview 1 with Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL)

We present the first systematic analysis of photometric redshifts (photo-z) estimated from the Rubin Observatory Data Preview 1 (DP1) data taken with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Commissioning Camera. Employing the Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL) framework, we apply eight photo-z algorithms to the DP1 photometry, using deep ugrizy coverage in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South (ECDFS) field and griz data in the Rubin_SV_38_7 field. In the ECDFS field, we construct a reference catalog from spectroscopic redshift (spec-z), grism redshift (grism-z), and multiband photo-z for training and validating photo-z. Performance metrics of the photo-z are evaluated using spec-zs from ECDFS and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 samples. Across the algorithms, we achieve per-galaxy photo-z scatter of $σ_{\rm NMAD} \sim 0.03$ and outlier fractions around 10% in the 6-band data, with performance degrading at faint magnitudes and z>1.2. The overall bias and scatter of our machine-learning based photo-zs satisfy the LSST Y1 requirement. We also use our photo-z to infer the ensemble redshift distribution n(z). We study the photo-z improvement by including near-infrared photometry from the Euclid mission, and find that Euclid photometry improves photo-z at z>1.2. Our results validate the RAIL pipeline for Rubin photo-z production and demonstrate promising initial performance.

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arXiv2025

DESC DC2 Data Release Note

In preparation for cosmological analyses of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC) has created a 300 deg$^2$ simulated survey as part of an effort called Data Challenge 2 (DC2). The DC2 simulated sky survey, in six optical bands with observations following a reference LSST observing cadence, was processed with the LSST Science Pipelines (19.0.0). In this Note, we describe the public data release of the resulting object catalogs for the coadded images of five years of simulated observations along with associated truth catalogs. We include a brief description of the major features of the available data sets. To enable convenient access to the data products, we have developed a web portal connected to Globus data services. We describe how to access the data and provide example Jupyter Notebooks in Python to aid first interactions with the data. We welcome feedback and questions about the data release via a GitHub repository.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Joint Modelling of Astrophysical Systematics for Cosmology with LSST Cosmic Shear

We present a novel framework for jointly modelling the weak lensing source galaxy redshift distribution and the intrinsic alignment of galaxies via a shared luminosity function (LF). Considering this framework within the context of a Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Year 1 and Year 10 cosmic shear analysis, we first demonstrate the substantial impact of the LF on both source galaxy redshift distributions and the intrinsic alignment contamination. We establish how the individual parameters of a Schechter LF model impact the redshift distribution of a magnitude-limited sample, and we demonstrate the effect of marginalising over the LF parameters as incorporated in the intrinsic alignment modelling of a standard cosmic shear analysis set-up. We forecast the impact of our joint modelling framework on cosmological parameter constraints. Our preliminary results are promising, indicating that this framework can yield cosmological constraints consistent with those expected from standard analyses, enhanced by the flexibility of not fixing LF parameters. We plan to further validate these findings with comprehensive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to robustly quantify bias avoidance and underscore the framework's efficacy. Taking advantage of our forecasting results and the parameter degeneracies, we identify the specific impact of the shape of the LF of source galaxies on the cosmic shear data vector. We also discuss the potential of this method in providing a way to model generic selection functions in redshift distribution estimation, as well as its possibilities for extension to a 3x2pt analysis, particularly with respect to incorporating galaxy bias in this luminosity-function-based framework. Although we consider the context of LSST cosmic shear in this work, the proposed joint modelling framework is generically applicable to weak lensing surveys.

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arXiv2023

Measurement of telescope transmission using a Collimated Beam Projector

With the increasingly large number of type Ia supernova being detected by current-generation survey telescopes, and even more expected with the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the precision of cosmological measurements will become limited by systematic uncertainties in flux calibration rather than statistical noise. One major source of systematic error in determining SNe Ia color evolution (needed for distance estimation) is uncertainty in telescope transmission, both within and between surveys. We introduce here the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), which is meant to measure a telescope transmission with collimated light. The collimated beam more closely mimics a stellar wavefront as compared to flat-field based instruments, allowing for more precise handling of systematic errors such as those from ghosting and filter angle-of-incidence dependence. As a proof of concept, we present CBP measurements of the StarDICE prototype telescope, achieving a standard (1 sigma) uncertainty of 3 % on average over the full wavelength range measured with a single beam illumination.

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arXiv2021

The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey

We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep (WFD) area of approximately 300 deg^2 as well as a deep drilling field (DDF) of approximately 1 deg^2. We simulate 5 years of the planned 10-year survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the dataset to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic testbed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time-domain cosmology.

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arXiv2012

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope: Dark Energy Science Collaboration

This white paper describes the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), whose goal is the study of dark energy and related topics in fundamental physics with data from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). It provides an overview of dark energy science and describes the current and anticipated state of the field. It makes the case for the DESC by laying out a robust analytical framework for dark energy science that has been defined by its members and the comprehensive three-year work plan they have developed for implementing that framework. The analysis working groups cover five key probes of dark energy: weak lensing, large scale structure, galaxy clusters, Type Ia supernovae, and strong lensing. The computing working groups span cosmological simulations, galaxy catalogs, photon simulations and a systematic software and computational framework for LSST dark energy data analysis. The technical working groups make the connection between dark energy science and the LSST system. The working groups have close linkages, especially through the use of the photon simulations to study the impact of instrument design and survey strategy on analysis methodology and cosmological parameter estimation. The white paper describes several high priority tasks identified by each of the 16 working groups. Over the next three years these tasks will help prepare for LSST analysis, make synergistic connections with ongoing cosmological surveys and provide the dark energy community with state of the art analysis tools. Members of the community are invited to join the LSST DESC, according to the membership policies described in the white paper. Applications to sign up for associate membership may be made by submitting the Web form at http://www.slac.stanford.edu/exp/lsst/desc/signup.html with a short statement of the work they wish to pursue that is relevant to the LSST DESC.

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