arXiv subjects

Lace M. Padilla

Publications and source records attributed to Lace M. Padilla.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Seeing Through the Forecast Clutter: Communicating Climate Forecast Distributions with Weighted Multiple Forecast Visualizations

Forecasts often diverge because different models make varying assumptions to account for underlying uncertainty. Readers who consume forecasts may wish to survey the shape and spread of these multiple forecasts to get a full account of the different predictions. One approach to visualizing multiple forecasts is through Confidence Interval (CI) plots. However, while the summative CI plots can communicate uncertainty of an ensemble, they obscure attributes of individual forecasts that can lead to inaccurate perceptions of the distribution of these forecasts (e.g., implying a normal distribution when non-existent). To address this challenge, we investigate the use of multiple forecast visualization (MFV) in communicating nuanced forecast distributions through two preregistered experiments using climate forecast data. In Experiment 1 (480 participants), we compared how well MFV and CI plots can represent the distribution of multiple forecasts. We found that, compared to CI plots, MFV improved participants' ability to identify the underlying distribution of forecasts and reduced the likelihood of assuming normality. Building on Experiment 1, we examined in Experiment 2 (900 participants) whether a downsampled MFV showing 9 forecasts might be able to communicate additional forecast properties using linewidth and opacity without negatively impacting distribution perception. We found that visually weighting forecasts by linewidth or opacity preserves readers' perception of the underlying distribution. We discuss how these findings suggest the use of downsampled and weighted MFV to cut through forecast clutter by aligning perceived distribution with the underlying forecast distribution, while opening up design opportunities to use weighting to communicate additional forecast attributes.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Visualizing in the Mind's Eye: Icon Design Shapes Mental Imagery of Fire Risks

We introduce mental imagery, or seeing images in the "mind's eye," as a cognitive process that can be shaped by data visualization design and in turn impact decisions. We found in a preregistered study (n = 400) that abstract geometric icons visualizing fire risk data evoked more mental images than concrete house-on-fire icons, and also produced more diverse and personalized mental images. Mediation analysis showed that increased mental imagery subsequently led to risk-averse decisions through evoking negative affect. These findings reveal a nuanced mechanism through which visualization concreteness influences decisions: concrete designs may actually suppress affect-driven behavior by restricting mental imagery.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Croissant Charts: Modulating the Performance of Normal Distribution Visualizations with Affordances

Affordances, originating in psychology, describe how an object's design influences the physical and cognitive actions users may take. Past work applied affordance theory to visualization to explain how design decisions can impact the cognitive actions of visualization readers. In this work, we demonstrate that affordances can complement effectiveness rankings by further explaining the root causes behind visualizations' task performance. To do so, we conduct a case study on static normal probability density function plots, identifying their current affordances. Next, we identify the optimal affordances for a common probability-comparison task and develop a novel affordance-driven visualization, the Croissant Chart, to support them. We empirically validate the design's effectiveness through a preregistered study (n = 808), demonstrating how affordances can inform predictable changes in task performance. Our findings underscore the potential for affordance-based approaches to enhance visualization effectiveness and inform future design decisions.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

Rethinking Human-AI Collaboration in Complex Medical Decision Making: A Case Study in Sepsis Diagnosis

Today's AI systems for medical decision support often succeed on benchmark datasets in research papers but fail in real-world deployment. This work focuses on the decision making of sepsis, an acute life-threatening systematic infection that requires an early diagnosis with high uncertainty from the clinician. Our aim is to explore the design requirements for AI systems that can support clinical experts in making better decisions for the early diagnosis of sepsis. The study begins with a formative study investigating why clinical experts abandon an existing AI-powered Sepsis predictive module in their electrical health record (EHR) system. We argue that a human-centered AI system needs to support human experts in the intermediate stages of a medical decision-making process (e.g., generating hypotheses or gathering data), instead of focusing only on the final decision. Therefore, we build SepsisLab based on a state-of-the-art AI algorithm and extend it to predict the future projection of sepsis development, visualize the prediction uncertainty, and propose actionable suggestions (i.e., which additional laboratory tests can be collected) to reduce such uncertainty. Through heuristic evaluation with six clinicians using our prototype system, we demonstrate that SepsisLab enables a promising human-AI collaboration paradigm for the future of AI-assisted sepsis diagnosis and other high-stakes medical decision making.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Average Estimates in Line Graphs Are Biased Toward Areas of Higher Variability

We investigate variability overweighting, a previously undocumented bias in line graphs, where estimates of average value are biased toward areas of higher variability in that line. We found this effect across two preregistered experiments with 140 and 420 participants. These experiments also show that the bias is reduced when using a dot encoding of the same series. We can model the bias with the average of the data series and the average of the points drawn along the line. This bias might arise because higher variability leads to stronger weighting in the average calculation, either due to the longer line segments (even though those segments contain the same number of data values) or line segments with higher variability being otherwise more visually salient. Understanding and predicting this bias is important for visualization design guidelines, recommendation systems, and tool builders, as the bias can adversely affect estimates of averages and trends.

cs.HC↗