arXiv subjects

Lamine Mili

Publications and source records attributed to Lamine Mili.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

A robust extended Kalman filter for power system dynamic state estimation using PMU measurements

This paper develops a robust extended Kalman filter to estimate the rotor angles and the rotor speeds of synchronous generators of a multimachine power system. Using a batch-mode regression form, the filter processes together predicted state vector and PMU measurements to track the system dynamics faster than the standard extended Kalman filter. Our proposed filter is based on a robust GM-estimator that bounds the influence of vertical outliers and bad leverage points, which are identified by means of the projection statistics. Good statistical efficiency under the Gaussian distribution assumption of the process and the observation noise is achieved thanks to the use of the Huber cost function, which is minimized via the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. The asymptotic covariance matrix of the state estimation error vector is derived via the covariance matrix of the total influence function of the GM-estimator. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 39-bus test system reveal that our robust extended Kalman filter exhibits good tracking capabilities under Gaussian process and observation noise while suppressing observation outliers, even in position of leverage. These good performances are obtained only under the validity of the linear approximation of the power system model.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

On the Effect of Suboptimal Estimation of Mutual Information in Feature Selection and Classification

This paper introduces a new property of estimators of the strength of statistical association, which helps characterize how well an estimator will perform in scenarios where dependencies between continuous and discrete random variables need to be rank ordered. The new property, termed the estimator response curve, is easily computable and provides a marginal distribution agnostic way to assess an estimator's performance. It overcomes notable drawbacks of current metrics of assessment, including statistical power, bias, and consistency. We utilize the estimator response curve to test various measures of the strength of association that satisfy the data processing inequality (DPI), and show that the CIM estimator's performance compares favorably to kNN, vME, AP, and H_{MI} estimators of mutual information. The estimators which were identified to be suboptimal, according to the estimator response curve, perform worse than the more optimal estimators when tested with real-world data from four different areas of science, all with varying dimensionalities and sizes.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Dynamic State Estimation for Power System Control and Protection

Dynamic state estimation (DSE) accurately tracks the dynamics of a power system and provides the evolution of the system state in real-time. This paper focuses on the control and protection applications of DSE, comprehensively presenting different facets of control and protection challenges arising in modern power systems. It is demonstrated how these challenges are effectively addressed with DSE-enabled solutions. As precursors to these solutions, reformulation of DSE considering both synchrophasor and sampled value measurements and comprehensive comparisons of DSE and observers have been presented. The usefulness and necessity of DSE based solutions in ensuring system stability, reliable protection and security, and resilience by revamping of control and protection methods are shown through examples, practical applications, and suggestions for further development.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Research Needed in Computational Social Science for Power System Reliability, Resilience, and Restoration

In the literature, smart grids are modeled as cyber-physical power systems without considering the computational social aspects. However, end-users are playing a key role in their operation and response to disturbances via demand response and distributed energy resources. Therefore, due to the critical role of active and passive end-users and the intermittency of renewable energy, smart grids must be planned and operated by considering the computational social aspects in addition to the technical aspects. The level of cooperation, flexibility, and other social features of the various stakeholders, including consumers, prosumers, and microgrids, affect the system efficiency, reliability, and resilience. In this paper, we design an artificial society simulating the interaction between power systems and the social communities that they serve via agent-based modeling inspired by Barsade's theory on the emotional spread. The simulation results show a decline in the consumers' and prosumers' satisfaction levels induced by a shortage of electricity. It also shows the effects of social diffusion via the Internet and mass media on the satisfaction level. In view of the importance of computational social science for power system applications and the limited number of publications devoted to it, we provide a list of research topics that need to be achieved to enhance the reliability and resilience of power systems' operation and planning.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Real-time LCC-HVDC Maximum Emergency Power Capacity Estimation Based on Local PMU Measurements

The adjustable capacity of a line-commutated-converter High Voltage Direct Current (LCC-HVDC) connected to a power system, called the LCC-HVDC maximum emergency power capability or HVDC-MC for short, plays an important role in determining the response of that system to a large disturbance. However, it is a challenging task to obtain an accurate HVDC-MC due to system model uncertainties as well as to contingencies. To address this problem, this paper proposes to estimate the HVDC-MC using a Thevenin equivalent (TE) of the system seen at the HVDC terminal bus of connection with the power system, whose parameters are estimated by processing positive-sequences voltages and currents of local synchrophasor measurements. The impacts of TE potential changes on the impedance estimation under large disturbance have been extensively investigated and an adaptive screening process of current measurements is developed to reduce the error of TE impedance estimation. The uncertainties of phasor measurements have been further taken into account by resorting to the total least square estimation method. The limitations of the HVDC control characteristics, the voltage-dependent current order limit, the converter capacity, and the AC voltage on HVDC-MC estimation are also considered. The simulations show that the proposed method can accurately track the dynamics of the TE parameters and the real-time HVDC-MC after the large disturbances.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

An Adaptive MMC Synchronous Stability Control Method Based on Local PMU measurements

Reducing the current is a common method to ensure the synchronous stability of a modular multilevel converter (MMC) when there is a short-circuit fault at its AC side. However, the uncertainty of the fault location of the AC system leads to a significant difference in the maximum allowable stable operating current during the fault. This paper proposes an adaptive MMC fault-current control method using local phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. Based on the estimated Thevenin equivalent (TE) parameters of the system, the current can be directly calculated to ensure the maximum output power of the MMC during the fault. This control method does not rely on off-line simulation and adapts itself to various fault conditions. The effective measurements are firstly selected by the voltage threshold and parameter constraints, which allow us to handle the error due to the change on the system-side. The proposed TE estimation method can fast track the change of the system impedance without depending on the initial value and can deal with the TE potential changes after a large disturbance. The simulation shows that the TE estimation can accurately track the TE parameters after the fault, and the current control instruction during an MMC fault can ensure the maximum output power of the MMC.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Roles of Dynamic State Estimation in Power System Modeling, Monitoring and Operation

Power system dynamic state estimation (DSE) remains an active research area. This is driven by the absence of accurate models, the increasing availability of fast-sampled, time-synchronized measurements, and the advances in the capability, scalability, and affordability of computing and communications. This paper discusses the advantages of DSE as compared to static state estimation, and the implementation differences between the two, including the measurement configuration, modeling framework and support software features. The important roles of DSE are discussed from modeling, monitoring and operation aspects for today's synchronous machine dominated systems and the future power electronics-interfaced generation systems. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the benefits of DSE on enhancing the operational robustness and resilience of 21st century power system through time critical applications. Future research directions are identified and discussed, paving the way for developing the next generation of energy management systems.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2020

Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment using Vine Copula and Gaussian Process Emulation

The increasing penetration of renewable energy along with the variations of the loads bring large uncertainties in the power system states that are threatening the security of power system planning and operation. Facing these challenges, this paper proposes a cost-effective, nonparametric method to quantify the impact of uncertain power injections on the load margins. First, we propose to generate system uncertain inputs via a novel vine copula due to its capability in simulating complex multivariate highly dependent model inputs. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 57-bus system, to which correlated renewable generation are attached, reveal the excellent performance of the proposed method.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Community Resilience Optimization Subject to Power Flow Constraints in Cyber-Physical-Social Systems in Power Engineering

This paper develops a community resilience optimization method subject to power flow constraints in the Cyber-Physical-Social Systems in Power Engineering, which is solved using a multi-agent-based algorithm. The tool that makes the nexus between electricity generation on the physical side and the consumers and the critical loads on the social side is the power flow algorithm. Specifically, the levels of emotion, empathy, cooperation, and the physical health of the consumers, prosumers are modeled in the proposed community resilience optimization approach while accounting for the electric power system constraints and their impact on the critical loads, which include hospitals, shelters, and gas stations, to name a few. The optimization accounts for the fact that the level of satisfaction of the society, the living standards, and the social well-being are depended on the supply of energy, including electricity. Evidently, the lack of electric energy resulting from load shedding has an impact on both the mental and the psychical quality of life, which in turn affects the community resilience. The developed constrained community resilience optimization method is applied to two case studies, including a two-area 6-buses system and a modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system. Simulation results reveal that a decrease in the initial values of the emotion, the risk perception, and the social media platform effect factor entails an increase in load shedding, which in turn results in a decrease in community resilience. In contrast, an increase in the initial values of cooperation, empathy, physical health, the capacity of microgrids and distributed energy resources results in a decrease in the load shedding, which in turn induces an enhancement of the community resilience.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Stochastic Multi-Agent-Based Model to Measure Community Resilience-Part 2: Simulation Results

In this paper we investigate the resiliency planning of interdependent electric power systems and emergency services. We investigate the effect of the level of empathy, cooperation, coordination, flexibility, and experience of individuals on their mental well-being. Furthermore, we explore the impact of the information that is provided by emergency services and the impact of the availability of electric energy on the physical, mental, and social well-being of individuals. For our simulations, we use a stochastic, multi-agent-based numerical framework that is reported in the companion paper for estimating the social well-being of a community when facing natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and tsunamis. The performance of the proposed method is assessed by measuring community resilience for a multitude of effects in the context of two case studies. These effects are analyzed for Gaussian social random characteristics. Each case study considers nine agents, namely, three areas of three communities each, yielding a total of six communities. The results show that a high level of cooperation can positively change individual behavior. In addition, the relationship among the individuals of a community is so vital that the society with less population and more empathy may be more resilient than the community with more population and less empathy.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Economic Dispatch using Gaussian Process Emulation

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To solve this stochastic economic dispatch, the conventional Monte Carlo method is prohibitively time consuming for medium- and large-scale power systems. To overcome this problem, we propose in this paper a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Based on the dimension-reduction results obtained by the Karhunen-Loève expansion, a Gaussian-process emulator is constructed. This surrogate allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus system reveal that the proposed method has an excellent performance as compared to the traditional Monte Carlo method.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Copula Index for Detecting Dependence and Monotonicity between Stochastic Signals

This paper introduces a nonparametric copula-based index for detecting the strength and monotonicity structure of linear and nonlinear statistical dependence between pairs of random variables or stochastic signals. Our index, termed Copula Index for Detecting Dependence and Monotonicity (CIM), satisfies several desirable properties of measures of association, including Renyi's properties, the data processing inequality (DPI), and consequently self-equitability. Synthetic data simulations reveal that the statistical power of CIM compares favorably to other state-of-the-art measures of association that are proven to satisfy the DPI. Simulation results with real-world data reveal the CIM's unique ability to detect the monotonicity structure among stochastic signals to find interesting dependencies in large datasets. Additionally, simulations show that the CIM shows favorable performance to estimators of mutual information when discovering Markov network structure.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Data-Driven Participation Factors for Nonlinear Systems Based on Koopman Mode Decomposition

This paper develops a novel data-driven technique to compute the participation factors for nonlinear systems based on the Koopman mode decomposition. Provided that certain conditions are satisfied, it is shown that the proposed technique generalizes the original definition of the linear mode-in-state participation factors. Two numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the performance of our approach: one relying on a canonical nonlinear dynamical system, and the other based on the two-area four-machine power system. The Koopman mode decomposition is capable of coping with a large class of nonlinearity, thereby making our technique able to deal with oscillations arising in practice due to nonlinearities while being fast to compute and compatible with real-time applications.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

Robust Power System Dynamic State Estimator with Non-Gaussian Measurement Noise: Part I--Theory

This paper develops the theoretical framework and the equations of a new robust Generalized Maximum-likelihood-type Unscented Kalman Filter (GM-UKF) that is able to suppress observation and innovation outliers while filtering out non-Gaussian measurement noise. Because the errors of the real and reactive power measurements calculated using Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) follow long-tailed probability distributions, the conventional UKF provides strongly biased state estimates since it relies on the weighted least squares estimator. By contrast, the state estimates and residuals of our GM-UKF are proved to be roughly Gaussian, allowing the sigma points to reliably approximate the mean and the covariance matrices of the predicted and corrected state vectors. To develop our GM-UKF, we first derive a batch-mode regression form by processing the predictions and observations simultaneously, where the statistical linearization approach is used. We show that the set of equations so derived are equivalent to those of the unscented transformation. Then, a robust GM-estimator that minimizes a convex Huber cost function while using weights calculated via Projection Statistics (PS's) is proposed. The PS's are applied to a two-dimensional matrix that consists of serially correlated predicted state and innovation vectors to detect observation and innovation outliers. These outliers are suppressed by the GM-estimator using the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Finally, the asymptotic error covariance matrix of the GM-UKF state estimates is derived from the total influence function. In the companion paper, extensive simulation results will be shown to verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Robust Power System Dynamic State Estimator with Non-Gaussian Measurement Noise: Part II--Implementation and Results

This paper is the second of a two-part series that discusses the implementation issues and test results of a robust Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) for power system dynamic state estimation with non-Gaussian synchrophasor measurement noise. The tuning of the parameters of our Generalized Maximum-Likelihood-type robust UKF (GM-UKF) is presented and discussed in a systematic way. Using simulations carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system, its performance is evaluated under different scenarios, including i) the occurrence of two different types of noises following thick-tailed distributions, namely the Laplace or Cauchy probability distributions for real and reactive power measurements; ii) the occurrence of observation and innovation outliers; iii) the occurrence of PMU measurement losses due to communication failures; iv) cyber attacks; and v) strong system nonlinearities. It is also compared to the UKF and the Generalized Maximum-Likelihood-type robust iterated EKF (GM-IEKF). Simulation results reveal that the GM-UKF outperforms the GM-IEKF and the UKF in all scenarios considered. In particular, when the system is operating under stressed conditions, inducing system nonlinearities, the GM-IEKF and the UKF diverge while our GM-UKF does converge. In addition, when the power measurement noises obey a Cauchy distribution, our GM-UKF converges to a state estimate vector that exhibits a much higher statistical efficiency than that of the GM-IEKF; by contrast, the UKF fails to converge. Finally, potential applications and future work of the proposed GM-UKF are discussed in concluding remarks section.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2016

A Copula Statistic for Measuring Nonlinear Multivariate Dependence

A new index based on empirical copulas, termed the Copula Statistic (CoS), is introduced for assessing the strength of multivariate dependence and for testing statistical independence. New properties of the copulas are proved. They allow us to define the CoS in terms of a relative distance function between the empirical copula, the Fréchet-Hoeffding bounds and the independence copula. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that for large sample sizes, the CoS is approximately normal. This property is utilised to develop a CoS-based statistical test of independence against various noisy functional dependencies. It is shown that this test exhibits higher statistical power than the Total Information Coefficient (TICe), the Distance Correlation (dCor), the Randomized Dependence Coefficient (RDC), and the Copula Correlation (Ccor) for monotonic and circular functional dependencies. Furthermore, the R2-equitability of the CoS is investigated for estimating the strength of a collection of functional dependencies with additive Gaussian noise. Finally, the CoS is applied to a real stock market data set from which we infer that a bivariate analysis is insufficient to unveil multivariate dependencies and to two gene expression data sets of the Yeast and of the E. Coli, which allow us to demonstrate the good performance of the CoS.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

On the Definition of Cyber-Physical Resilience in Power Systems

In recent years, advanced sensors, intelligent automation, communication networks, and information technologies have been integrated into the electric grid to enhance its performance and efficiency. Integrating these new technologies has resulted in more interconnections and interdependencies between the physical and cyber components of the grid. Natural disasters and man-made perturbations have begun to threaten grid integrity more often. Urban infrastructure networks are highly reliant on the electric grid and consequently, the vulnerability of infrastructure networks to electric grid outages is becoming a major global concern. In order to minimize the economic, social, and political impacts of power system outages, the grid must be resilient. The concept of a power system cyber-physical resilience centers around maintaining system states at a stable level in the presence of disturbances. Resilience is a multidimensional property of the electric grid, it requires managing disturbances originating from physical component failures, cyber component malfunctions, and human attacks. In the electric grid community, there is not a clear and universally accepted definition of cyber-physical resilience. This paper focuses on the definition of resilience for the electric grid and reviews key concepts related to system resilience. This paper aims to advance the field not only by adding cyber-physical resilience concepts to power systems vocabulary, but also by proposing a new way of thinking about grid operation with unexpected disturbances and hazards and leveraging distributed energy resources.

eess.SY↗