arXiv subjects

Lang Tong

Publications and source records attributed to Lang Tong.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimal Uniform Pricing for Multi-Interval Dispatch without Make-Whole Uplifts

In a network with ramp-limited generators and inaccurate net-demand forecasts, practical rolling-window dispatch can drive locational marginal prices (LMPs) below generators' bid-in offers. In such cases, out-of-market (OOM) settlements are used to compensate generators and maintain dispatch-following incentives, but OOM can have negative consequences, including nontransparent real-time price signals, discriminatory compensation, and incentives for untruthful bidding. This paper presents an optimal uniform pricing rule that minimizes demand payments, eliminates OOM make-whole payments, preserves LMP-based congestion charges, and ensures revenue adequacy. We derive the proposed pricing rule in closed form and relate it to existing pricing schemes. Numerical comparisons demonstrate favorable generator profits and reduced price volatility. However, higher generator profits are accompanied by increased demand payments, reflecting the in-market, uniform allocation of ramping costs while preserving the LMP-based congestion charges widely used in real-time market settlements. The numerical results also show that, under LMP with OOM settlement, a price-taking generator has an incentive to inflate its offer, whereas this incentive is absent under the proposed pricing rule within the tested bid range.

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arXiv2026

Threshold Pricing for Distributed Scheduling of Flexible Demands in Energy Communities

This paper develops a price-based distributed scheduling in an energy community whose members own behind-the-meter renewable generation with deferrable EV charging and price-elastic thermostatic loads. A coordinator transacts with the distribution utility under a Net Energy Metering tariff and broadcasts a community price to which each household responds in its own interest, giving a bilevel stochastic dynamic program that is intractable in general. Our main result characterizes that the joint optimal centralized policy is a two-threshold policy on the community's aggregate renewable generation. Building on this structure, we adopt the Threshold Pricing Rule, which is uniform, individually rational, revenue adequate, and asymptotically optimal in terms of community welfare under a light-traffic condition. Simulations using synthetic and real world data confirm asymptotic optimality and individual surplus gains.

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arXiv2026

A Closed-Loop Thermal Dynamic Model for AI Data Center Cooling Load Simulation

Cooling demand constitutes a significant and flexible component of AI data center electricity consumption, but time-synchronized measurements are scarce and constant coefficient-of-performance models cannot represent thermal dynamics. This letter proposes a closed-loop simulation model which couples a linear thermal dynamic model with deadband-based control to capture the nonlinear cooling dynamics. The model is validated using operational telemetry from the Marconi100 supercomputer. Compared with the baseline, the proposed model reduces the mean absolute error from 95.80 to 20.88~kW and the root-mean-square error from 109.79 to 27.27~kW. Evaluation over approximately 520 daily profiles further shows improved reproduction of daily peak demand and intraday variability. The proposed model provides a computationally tractable means of generating physically interpretable cooling load profiles for power system studies.

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arXiv2026

Price-Based Distributed Scheduling of Flexible Demands in Energy Communities

We study price-based distributed scheduling of flexible demand in an energy community, where a coordinator broadcasts electricity prices and individual households schedule their consumption. Household demand includes deferrable and non-deferrable loads, such as electric vehicle charging with completion deadlines and thermostatically controlled loads. The coordinator transacts with a distribution utility on behalf of community members under the regulated Net Energy Metering tariff. We formulate distributed demand scheduling as a bilevel stochastic dynamic program. The upper level optimizes the coordinator's pricing policy to minimize the community's energy costs subject to operating, revenue adequacy, and individual rationality constraints. The lower level involves stochastic dynamic programs that maximize households' consumption benefits subject to the availability of renewable generation. The computational cost of such a distributed stochastic dynamic program is prohibitive in general. By uncovering the structure of optimal centralized scheduling, we derive Threshold Pricing Rule (TPR) -- a simple community pricing policy with linear computational costs for the upper- and lower-level optimizations. Being independent of parameters of the underlying stochastic dynamic program, TPR is robust against modeling uncertainties and is shown to guarantee revenue adequacy for the community and individual rationality for community members. As the community size grows, TPR is shown to be asymptotically optimal.

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arXiv2026

Ramping Procurement and Bid-Cost Recovery in Real-Time Market

We study ramping procurement co-optimized with economic dispatch under net-demand uncertainty. We examine two flexible ramp product designs implemented by grid operators: single-interval and multi-interval co-optimization. Both rely on rolling-window stochastic optimization with binding and advisory interval decisions. We develop analytical frameworks to evaluate generator profits, consumer payments, bid cost recovery (BCR), and operational efficiency. In particular, net-demand uncertainty may lead to generator under-compensation, requiring discriminatory BCR. While operational efficiency is invariant to energy and ramp prices, producer profits and consumer payments depend critically on pricing. We examine locational marginal pricing (LMP) and two uniform pricing: maximum dispatch cost pricing (MDCP) and maximum temporal locational marginal pricing (MTLMP). With out-of-market BCR, LMP yields discriminatory energy prices, whereas MDCP eliminates BCR and MTLMP does so in most cases. This property enables us to establish truthful bidding incentives for price-taking generators under MDCP. Our analysis highlights trade-offs between single- and multi-interval co-optimization and pricing designs: single-interval energy-ramp co-optimization is advantageous under high forecast uncertainty and moderate ramping requirements, whereas multi-interval co-optimization is superior when net-demand forecasts are relatively accurate and ramp needs are challenging. Empirical results on CAISO and ERCOT data show that MDCP and MTLMP increase producer profits with negligible BCR, albeit at the expense of higher consumer payments relative to LMP.

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arXiv2025

Risk-Based Capacity Accreditation of Resource-Colocated Large Loads in Capacity Markets

We study capacity accreditation of resource-colocated large loads, defined as large demands such as data center and manufacturing loads colocated with behind-the-meter generation and storage resources, synchronously connected to the bulk power system, and capable of participating in the wholesale electricity market as an integrated unit. Because the accredited capacity of a resource portfolio is not equal to the sum of its individual resources' capacity values, we adopt a risk-based capacity accreditation framework to evaluate the combined reliability contribution of colocated resources. Grounded in the effective load carrying capability (ELCC) metric, the proposed capacity accreditation employs a convex optimization engine that jointly dispatches colocated resources to minimize reliability risk. We apply the developed methodology to a hydrogen manufacturing facility with colocated renewable generation, storage, and fuel cell resources.

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arXiv2025

AI Foundation Model for Time Series with Innovations Representation

This paper introduces an Artificial Intelligence (AI) foundation model for time series in engineering applications, where causal operations are required for real-time monitoring and control. Since engineering time series are governed by physical, rather than linguistic, laws, large-language-model-based AI foundation models may be ineffective or inefficient. Building on the classical innovations representation theory of Wiener, Kallianpur, and Rosenblatt, we propose Time Series GPT (TS-GPT) -- an innovations-representation-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for engineering monitoring and control. As an example of foundation model adaptation, we consider Probabilistic Generative Forecasting, which produces future time series samples from conditional probability distributions given past realizations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TS-GPT in forecasting real-time locational marginal prices using historical data from U.S. independent system operators.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Joint Scheduling of Deferrable and Nondeferrable Demand with Colocated Stochastic Supply

We investigate the problem of serving deferrable and nondeferrable electric demands with colocated stochastic supply and grid-imported electricity. Deferrable demands arrive randomly and can be delayed within their service deadlines. Nondeferrable demands are always present and must be served immediately, but the quantity served depends on the cost of electricity. Colocated supply is stochastic with zero marginal cost. It can be used to meet demand or exported to the grid to maximize profit. The stochasticity of demands and local supply makes optimal scheduling a Markov decision process with continuous (uncountable) state and action spaces. Under deterministic, time-varying, and piecewise-linear retail pricing of electricity, we show that the optimal demand scheduling follows the {\em Principle of Procrastination}, which reduces the infinite-dimensional policy space to a finite-dimensional Euclidean space defined by three procrastination parameters for each deferrable demand. For settings in which the underlying probability distributions are unknown, we propose a {\em Procrastination Threshold Reinforcement Learning} algorithm. Numerical experiments based on real-world test data confirm that the proposed threshold learning algorithm closely approximates the optimal policy and outperforms standard benchmarks.

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arXiv2025

Energy Management for Renewable-Colocated Artificial Intelligence Data Centers

We develop an energy management system (EMS) for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers with colocated renewable generation. Under a cost-minimizing framework, the EMS of renewable-colocated data center (RCDC) co-optimizes AI workload scheduling, on-site renewable utilization, and electricity market participation. Within both wholesale and retail market participation models, the economic benefit of the RCDC operation is maximized. Empirical evaluations using real-world traces of electricity prices, data center power consumption, and renewable generation demonstrate significant electricity cost reduction from renewable and AI data center colocations.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Renewable-Colocated Green Hydrogen Production: Optimal Scheduling and Profitability

We study the optimal green hydrogen production and energy market participation of a renewable-colocated hydrogen producer (RCHP) that utilizes onsite renewable generation for both hydrogen production and grid services. Under deterministic and stochastic profit-maximization frameworks, we analyze RCHP's multiple market participation models and derive closed-form optimal scheduling policies that dynamically allocate renewable energy to hydrogen production and electricity export to the wholesale market. Analytical characterizations of the RCHP's operating profit and the optimal sizing of renewable and electrolyzer capacities are obtained. We use real-time renewable generation and electricity price data from three independent system operators to evaluate the impacts of market prices and environmental policies on RCHP's profitability.

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arXiv2025

Risk-Sensitive Security-Constrained Economic Dispatch: Pricing and Algorithm Design

We propose a risk-sensitive security-constrained economic dispatch (R-SCED) formulation capturing the tradeoff between dispatch cost and resilience against potential line failures, where risk is modeled via the conditional value at risk (CVaR). In the context of our formulation, we analyze revenue adequacy and side payments of two pricing models, one based on nominal generation costs, and another based on total marginal cost including contingencies. In particular, we prove that the system operator's (SO) merchandising surplus (MS) and total revenue are nonnegative under the latter, while under the former the same does not hold in general. We demonstrate that the proposed R-SCED formulation is amenable to decomposition and describe a Benders' decomposition algorithm to solve it. In numerical examples, we illustrate the differences in MS and total revenue under the considered pricing schemes, and the computational efficiency of our decomposition approach.

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arXiv2024

Decentralized Equitable Energy Access in Energy Communities

We address the issue of equitable energy access within an energy community consisting of members with diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, including varying income levels and differing capacities to access distributed energy resources such as solar power and storage systems. While optimal energy consumption scheduling is well-studied, integrating equity into decentralized real-time energy access remains under-explored. This paper formulates Equity-regarding Welfare Maximization (EqWM)--a welfare optimization energy scheduling subject to equity constraints. We further develop a decentralized implementation (D-EqWM) as a bi-level optimization, where a non-profit operator designs a community pricing policy aimed at maximizing overall welfare, subject to constraints that ensure equitable access. Community members, in turn, optimize their individual consumption based on these prices. We present the optimal pricing policy along with its key properties.

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arXiv2024

Network-Aware and Welfare-Maximizing Dynamic Pricing for Energy Sharing

The proliferation of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DER) within the electrical distribution network presents significant supply and demand flexibilities, but also introduces operational challenges such as voltage spikes and reverse power flows. In response, this paper proposes a network-aware dynamic pricing framework tailored for energy-sharing coalitions that aggregate small, but ubiquitous, BTM DER downstream of a distribution system operator's (DSO) revenue meter that adopts a generic net energy metering (NEM) tariff. By formulating a Stackelberg game between the energy-sharing market leader and its prosumers, we show that the dynamic pricing policy induces the prosumers toward a network-safe operation and decentrally maximizes the energy-sharing social welfare. The dynamic pricing mechanism involves a combination of a locational ex-ante dynamic price and an ex-post allocation, both of which are functions of the energy sharing's BTM DER. The ex-post allocation is proportionate to the price differential between the DSO NEM price and the energy-sharing locational price. Simulation results using real DER data and the IEEE 13-bus test systems illustrate the dynamic nature of network-aware pricing at each bus, and its impact on voltage.

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arXiv2024

Grid Monitoring with Synchro-Waveform and AI Foundation Model Technologies

Purpose:This article advocates for the development of a next-generation grid monitoring and control system designed for future grids dominated by inverter-based resources. Leveraging recent progress in generative artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and networking technology, we develop a physics-based AI foundation model with high-resolution synchro-waveform measurement technology to enhance grid resilience and reduce economic losses from outages. Methods and Results:The proposed framework adopts the AI Foundation Model paradigm, where a generative and pre-trained (GPT) foundation model extracts physical features from power system measurements, enabling adaptation to a wide range of grid operation tasks. Replacing the large language models used in popular AI foundation models, this approach is based on the Wiener-Kallianpur-Rosenblatt innovation model for power system time series, trained to capture the physical laws of power flows and sinusoidal characteristics of grid measurements. The pre-trained foundation model causally extracts sufficient statistics from grid measurement time series for various downstream applications, including anomaly detection, over-current protection, probabilistic forecasting, and data compression for streaming synchro-waveform data. Numerical simulations using field-collected data demonstrate significantly improved fault detection accuracy and detection speed. Conclusion:The future grid will be rich in inverter-based resources, making it highly dynamic, stochastic, and low inertia. This work underscores the limitations of existing Supervisory-Control-and-Data-Acquisition and Phasor-Measurement-Unit monitoring systems and advocates for AI-enabled monitoring and control with high-resolution synchro-waveform technology to provide accurate situational awareness, rapid response to faults, and robust network protection.

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arXiv2024

Probabilistic Forecasting of Real-Time Electricity Market Signals via Interpretable Generative AI

This paper introduces a generative AI approach to probabilistic forecasting of real-time electricity market signals, including locational marginal prices, interregional price spreads, and demand-supply imbalances. We present WIAE-GPF, a Weak Innovation AutoEncoder-based Generative Probabilistic Forecasting architecture that generates future samples of multivariate time series. Unlike traditional black-box models, WIAE-GPF offers interpretability through the Wiener-Kallianpur innovation representation for nonparametric time series, making it a nonparametric generalization of the Wiener/Kalman filter-based forecasting. A novel learning algorithm with structural convergence guarantees is proposed, ensuring that, under ideal training conditions, the generated forecast samples match the ground truth conditional probability distribution. Extensive tests using publicly available data from U.S. independent system operators under various point and probabilistic forecasting metrics demonstrate that WIAE-GPF consistently outperforms classical methods and cutting-edge machine learning techniques.

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arXiv2024

A Decentralized Market Mechanism for Energy Communities under Operating Envelopes

We propose an operating envelopes (OEs) aware energy community market mechanism that dynamically charges/rewards its members based on two-part pricing. The OEs are imposed exogenously by a regulated distribution system operator (DSO) on the energy community's revenue meter and is subject to a generalized net energy metering (NEM) tariff design. By formulating the interaction of the community operator and its members as a Stackelberg game, we show that the proposed two-part pricing achieves a Nash equilibrium and maximizes the community's social welfare in a decentralized fashion while ensuring that the community's operation abides by the OEs. The market mechanism conforms with the cost-causation principle and guarantees community members a surplus level no less than their maximum surplus when they autonomously face the DSO. The dynamic and uniform community price is a monotonically decreasing function of the community's aggregate renewable generation. We also analyze the impact of exogenous parameters such as NEM rates and OEs on the value of joining the community. Lastly, through numerical studies, we showcase the community's welfare, and pricing, and compare its members' surplus to customers under the DSO's regime.

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arXiv2024

Generative Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting and Applications in Grid Operations

Generative probabilistic forecasting produces future time series samples according to the conditional probability distribution given past time series observations. Such techniques are essential in risk-based decision-making and planning under uncertainty with broad applications in grid operations, including electricity price forecasting, risk-based economic dispatch, and stochastic optimizations. Inspired by Wiener and Kallianpur's innovation representation, we propose a weak innovation autoencoder architecture and a learning algorithm to extract independent and identically distributed innovation sequences from nonparametric stationary time series. We show that the weak innovation sequence is Bayesian sufficient, which makes the proposed weak innovation autoencoder a canonical architecture for generative probabilistic forecasting. The proposed technique is applied to forecasting highly volatile real-time electricity prices, demonstrating superior performance across multiple forecasting measures over leading probabilistic and point forecasting techniques.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Multi-Interval Energy-Reserve Co-Optimization with SoC-Dependent Bids from Battery Storage

We consider the problem of co-optimized energy-reserve market clearing with state-of-charge (SoC) dependent bids from battery storage participants. While SoC-dependent bids capture storage's degradation and opportunity costs, such bids result in a non-convex optimization in the market clearing process. More challenging is the regulation reserve capacity clearing, where the SoC-dependent cost is uncertain as it depends on the unknown regulation trajectories ex-post of the market clearing. Addressing the nonconvexity and uncertainty in a multi-interval co-optimized real-time energy-reserve market, we introduce a simple restriction on the SoC-dependent bids along with a robust optimization formulation, transforming the non-convex market clearing under uncertainty into a standard convex piece-wise linear program and making it possible for large-scale storage integration. Under reasonable assumptions, we show that SoC-dependent bids yield higher profit for storage participants than that from SoC-independent bids. Numerical simulations demonstrate a 28%-150% profit increase of the proposed SoC-dependent bids compared with the SoC-independent counterpart.

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